The 2025 Academy Awards are live this Sunday, March 2 at 7 p.m. ET.
All the guild awards and various precursors are in the books, leaving the Oscars as the last show of awards season. We're breaking down the Best Actress race as part of our 2025 Oscars odds collection, which also includes Best Picture predictions and Best Actor predictions.
Let's take a look and see if Demi Moore will keep riding momentum into Oscar night. Be sure to download our 2025 Oscars ballot before the broadcast begins.
2025 Oscars Best Actress odds
| Actress (Film) |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Demi Moore (The Substance) | -250 | -250 |
| Mikey Madison (Anora) | +185 | +175 |
| Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) | +1000 | +1400 |
| Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) | +3500 | +3300 |
| Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) | +5000 | +3300 |
My pick: Demi Moore, The Substance (-250 at DraftKings)
Demi Moore being nominated for an Oscar at all a year ago would have seemed unlikely and getting in the door for a gross-out body horror movie like The Substance would seem nigh impossible. Well, here we are. And she's going to win. Maybe it's an industry-wide mea culpa for her career evaporating from its zenith or maybe the Academy is finally ready to acknowledge horror films can be great cinema. Either way, Moore takes the trophy.
Dark horse pick: Mikey Madison, Anora (+175 at bet365)
For a real swing, I'm tempted to target Fernanda Torres for the Brazilian drama I'm Still Here but other than her win at the Golden Globes, there's little evidence to point to that she has much of a chance. Mikey Madison has cleaned up at several precursors (BAFTA, Independent Spirit, various critics honors) but lost to Moore at SAG. She's the most likely of the underdogs.
