2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds and Picks

Women's Outright Winner
Miki Sudo	-900	-800
Mayoi Ebihara	+500	+500
Michelle Lesco	+4,000	+5,000
Any Other Contestant	+5,000	+4,000
Katie Prettyman	+5,000	OTB
Larell Marie Mele	+10,000	OTB

All odds as of 7-4.

Favorites to win the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

During Chestnut's reign, the betting board typically had his odds to win priced at more than -1,000 with the rest of the field all grouped together at big plus money. With Chestnut gone, there are odds available for nine individual competitors with Geoffrey Esper leading the way at -110. 

On the women's side, Miki Sudo is again the runaway favorite at -900. Sudo has won nine of the last 10 events and the one year during that span where she didn't win she sat out because she was pregnant. Her women's world record of 48.5 hot dogs is even more than the career-high 45 of her husband Nick Wehry, who is third on the men's odds board.

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest picks and predictions

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest winner: James Webb (+200 at DraftKings)

It makes sense that Esper is the favorite at +100. After all, he has been the runner-up in each of the last three years and had a career-high of 50 in 2021 while inhaling 49 glizzies last year. However, Webb was close behind Esper last year, finishing third with 47, and he's the value bet here.

While Esper is getting up there in age at 49, Webb is smack dab in the middle of his eating prime at 35 years old and he made his Nathan's Famous debut just two years. It's expected to be a humid 80 degrees on Thursday and that heat could be taxing on the Massachusetts-based Esper while Webb should be less affected since he grew up in Sydney, Australia. 

Webb also has plenty of momentum, since he's been on a competitive eating tear in 2024. He has already set multiple eating records this year, which includes a Texas sausage-eating contest in May where he inhaled a record 51 sausages in 10 minutes — beating out Esper for first place. Nothing seems like a better warmup for a hot-dog-eating contest in New York than a sausage-eating dry run in the Lone Star State. 

Pick made on 7-2.

Total hot dogs eaten by Mayoi Ebihara: Over 34.5 (+110 at DraftKings)

We'll have a new victor in the men's division but could Sudo be knocked off her perch as well? Ebihara should give her the closest race she's had in years. Keep in mind that Sudo is typically also listed against the field and she has often been given a spread against her usual closest competitor Michelle Lesco. Last year, Sudo pulled away with 39.5 but Ebihara wasn't far behind at 33.5 while Lesco was in third at 24. 

That was Ebihara's first year in the event and at just 28-years-old she's a rising star in the sport and looks like a future champ. If she could devour 33.5 dogs as a rookie, she will no doubt eclipse that number with a year of experience under her belt.

Pick made on 7-2.

Will Joey Chestnut participate in the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?

The competitive eating world was shocked when it was announced that Chestnut would be unable to defend his title after being banned by Major League Eating and Nathan's. No, Chestnut wasn't caught with performance-enhancing glizzies — he simply signed a sponsorship deal with rival brand Impossible Foods. 

Major League Eating issued the following statement in reference to Chestnut's decision to sign with Impossible Foods and his subsequent ban from this event:

Major League Eating addresses Joey Chestnut's choice to represent a rival brand, expressing disappointment and hope for his return to Nathan’s Famous. pic.twitter.com/NrbK4aRUc8

— Major League Eating (@eatingcontest) June 11, 2024

Chestnut had dominated the competitive eating world for more than a decade and had won Nathan's Famous an incredible 16 times. Nobody else in the history of the Nathan's competition has ever eaten more than 64 while Chestnut has cracked the 70-plateau on six occasions — including a record 76 in 2021.

Nicknamed "Jaws," Chestnut has become a rockstar in a sport with few household names and at just 40 years old he's still in his eating prime. After the news of his ban was announced, Chestnut responded with a statement that he doesn't have a contract with either Nathan's or MLE.

(2/3)To set the record straight, I do not have a contract with MLE or Nathans and they are looking to change the rules from past years as it relates to other partners I can work with.This is apparently the basis on which I’m being banned, and it doesn’t impact the July 4th event.

— Joey Chestnut (@joeyjaws) June 11, 2024

Although Chestnut won't attend the event July 4, he will be competing against six-time Nathan's winner Takeru Kobayashi in a one-on-one contest on September 2 live on Netflix. 

Past Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Results

Previous winners of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, since 2011 when women began competing separately, and how many hot dogs they consumed.