2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds and Picks

Jaws is making a comeback!

Joey Chestnut will be returning to the site of his greatest victories this July when he takes part in the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest following a one-year forced hiatus.

I’m thrilled to be returning to the Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest. This event means the world to me. It’s a cherished tradition, a celebration of American culture, and a huge part of my life. (1/3)

— Joey Chestnut (@joeyjaws) June 16, 2025

The 41-year-old Kentucky native has won the contest a record 16 times, but was banned from last year's event after agreeing to a lucrative sponsorship deal with the imitation meat brand, Impossible Foods.

Not surprisingly, Chestnut is the early favorite among oddsmakers and bettors alike. Let's take a closer look at the odds ahead of this year's event.

🏆 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest winner odds

Data courtesy of Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform that operates similarly to the stock exchange. It lets you buy and sell contracts with other users on real-world events, where you can make predictions on the outright winner.

Joey Chestnut has returned in dominant fashion and is pegged as the clear betting favorite ahead of the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, with an 88 % implied probability of victory. His absence in 2024 stirred excitement among fans, but his unquestioned pedigree remains intact: with a record-breaking 16 titles, including a world record of 76 hot dogs in 2021 at Nathan’s and an impressive 83-dog performance in a Netflix showdown last year, Chestnut long ago cemented his status as the greatest competitive eater ever.

Fresh off resolving the sponsorship clash and back to serious training, many expect he’ll not only recapture the mustard belt, but possibly push past the 80‑dog mark, making his place as the betting favorite all the more justified.

🌭 Hot dogs eaten by the Nathan's Contest winner

Data courtesy of Kalshi.

The 2025 winner, most likely Chestnut, should consume in the 72–76 hot-dog range. That places 70+ firmly in play, 75+ as a solid longshot, and 80+ remaining unlikely. So if you’re betting on 70 or more, you’re aligning with the broad public sentiment and statistical odds.

From a pure data standpoint, Chestnut’s peak was 76 in 2021, then dipped to 62 recently. But his 2024 performance off-stage (83 dogs) and stated goals suggest he’s rebounding, making 75 hot dogs an entirely realistic projection for this year.

What is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest?

The annual event, held on the Fourth of July at Coney Island to celebrate Independence Day, is the great American tradition of stuffing our faces with mystery meat. Competitors try to eat as many hot dogs (with buns) as they can within 10 minutes with dunking the buns in water encouraged. Any throwing up results in an instant disqualification.

📜 The origins and history of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest began on July 4, 1916 when four immigrants allegedly staged an impromptu eating competition at Nathan Handwerker’s hot dog stand on Coney Island to determine who was the most patriotic. Though this origin story has become part of the contest's lore, it was later revealed to be a marketing myth created in the 1970s by promoters. Nevertheless, the contest steadily grew in popularity over the decades, transforming from a quirky local event into a nationally recognized spectacle.

By the 1990s and early 2000s, the contest gained major media attention, thanks in part to the rise of competitive eaters like Takeru Kobayashi, who dramatically increased the winning totals and drew international eyes to the event.

Held annually on Independence Day outside Nathan’s flagship restaurant, the contest is now overseen by Major League Eating and features both men’s and women’s divisions, broadcast live on ESPN. It has become a symbol of American excess and celebration, with tens of thousands attending in person and millions watching from home.

🏅 Past Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest results

Previous winners of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, since 2011 when women began competing separately, and how many hot dogs they consumed.

Pages related to this topic