Formula One's small early-season intermission is officially over, and Sunday's grid is set. Ferrari secured their fourth pole position at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in the seven years of its existence, with their star driver Charles Leclerc edging out both Red Bull cars. Max Verstappen was second, and Sergio Perez was third. Leclerc has some security with teammate Carlos Sainz in the fourth position.
Azerbaijan has been home to some wonky and wild results in its short history, with no pole position driver having ever secured a win on Sunday, and just two making the podium in six races.
Will Azerbaijan throw a wrench in Leclerc's weekend, or will the Ferrari leadman secure his first race win of the 2023 season?
Continue reading for free Formula One picks and predictions for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix on Sunday, April 30th.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix picks and predictions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Best F1 bonuses
Looking to do some F1 betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at bet365 can bet $1 and get $200 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in free bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Azerbaijan Grand Prix picks
Race prediction: Max Verstappen outright
Verstappen remains arguably the most talented driver on the grid, and is operating the best Formula One car on the planet. Despite that displayed disparity throughout the season, Charles Leclerc was able to just inch him out en route to his first pole position of the season.
The two set identical times early in the third round of qualifying, but Verstappen noted that he lost grip on his tires and was unable to stick with Leclerc's later pace. If Max and the Red Bull team can sort out the grip concerns, Verstappen should be able to eventually overtake Leclerc.
After all, it was this exact race last year during which Max climbed from third on the grid to a mammoth 20+ second win. There's no reason to believe he can't do the same this year.
Pick: Max Verstappen outright (-215 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Max Verstappen fastest lap
Taking into consideration how Friday's qualifying went and the context of those results, there's value here in Verstappen taking home Sunday's fastest lap. That's especially the case considering Verstappen had no problem posting the fastest lap during Free Practice, edging out Leclerc by 0.037 seconds.
And while Leclerc has been able to take home two straight qualifying rounds in Azerbaijan and is a potential threat to take home fastest lap, that is more a product of his ability to build that pace during a lower stress environment compared to the typical craziness of the actual Baku City race.
In fact, in the six Azerbaijan races, the fastest qualifying lap has been 3-5 seconds faster than the fastest race lap. Not many (if any) of the other Grand Prix's feature that type of consistent discrepancy.
Last year, a Red Bull car (Sergio Perez) took home fastest lap, but largely did so due to there being no need for the winner (Verstappen) to press his vehicle with a 20+ second lead.
Pick: Max Verstappen fastest lap (-125 at bet365)
