2023 Mexican Grand Prix 2023 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Verstappen Continues to Roll

The 2023 Mexican Grand Prix — officially known as the Mexico City Grand Prix — returns to the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez on Sunday afternoon.

Max Verstappen has the F1 Drivers' Championship all locked up for a third straight year. And while he doesn't need another victory, he has an incredible track record at this event, winning four of the last five times it's been held (Lewis Hamilton won in 2019). The 26-year-old Verstappen has won 13 of his last 14 races, and despite Charles Leclerc gaining pole position following Saturday's qualifying, "Mad Max" remains the betting favorite in Mexico.

Can Verstappen add to his historically dominant F1 season or will someone else from the grid rise to the occasion? Continue reading for free Formula 1 picks and predictions for the Mexican Grand Prix on Sunday, October 29.

Mexican Grand Prix 2023 odds

Driver	Team
Max Verstappen	Red Bull	-450
Sergio Perez	Red Bull	+1,000
Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	+1,200
Carlos Sainz	Ferrari	+2,500
Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	+2,500
Oscar Piastri	Ferrari	+2,500
George Russell	Mercedes	+4,000
Daniel Ricciardo	AlphaTauri	+5,000
Lando Norris	McLaren	+6,600
Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	+6,600
Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	+15,000
Alexander Albon	Williams	+15,000
Guanyu Zhou	Alfa Romeo	+15,000
Pierre Gasly	Alpine	+15,000
Esteban Ocon	Alpine	+25,000
Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	+100,000
Nico Hulkenberg	Haas	+100,000
Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	+100,000
Kevin Magnussen	Haas	+200,000
Logan Sargeant	Williams	+200,000

Odds as of October 28, 2023 (following Saturday's qualifying).

Mexican Grand Prix 2023 Picks and Predictions

Charles LeClerc has taken pole position for the second straight race, and will look to find a better result than the post-race disqualification he and Lewis Hamilton received in the United States Grand Prix following a post-race plank test. LeClerc made history in the wrong way, becoming the first racer since 2004 to start in pole position and be disqualified from a win.

Verstappen will begin Sunday's race in the third position, with LeClerc's teammate Carlos Sainz between the two.

Can LeClerc convert this week's pole position into a win? Or will Verstappen (once again) climb the grid and bring home his 16th win of the season from 19 races?

Race prediction: Max Verstappen to win (-400 at FanDuel)

There is nothing cute or exciting about predicting Verstappen to take home a win on Sunday, but Verstappen is the reigning back-to-back winner of the Mexican Grand Prix and winner of four of the last five races here for a reason.

Sure, Ferrari teammates LeClerc and Sainz being in first and second position to start the race could theoretically be an issue, but it wasn't an issue at the Italian Grand Prix when Sainz and LeClerc had first and third position to Verstappen's second — a race he ended up winning.

One could argue that there could be a lack of motivation to give it his all given his monstrous lead in the Drivers' Championship standings, but Verstappen has never been one to let up. With a Formula 1 record within reach, it'd be strange to see such a fiery competitor literally take his foot off the gas now.

Best bet: Lando Norris Top 6 finish (+350 at BetRivers)

Lando Norris had a tough qualifying round after being unable to continue after the first round and finishing in dead last before post-qualifying penalties placed Yuki Tsunoda and Logan Sargeant behind him.

Norris has been in too good of recent form to ignore, and while climbing from 18th position to the Top 6 is a large task, he is certainly more than capable of doing it. Norris has finished inside of the Top 8 in 10 straight races, which includes six podium finishes — including the active four-race streak he carries into Sunday.

He has also maintained or improved his position in nine of those 10 races, demonstrating the ability to climb and to fend off other potential climbers.

It's an undoubtedly tall task, but the friendly juice is worth the squeeze.

Mexican Grand Prix 2023 starting grid

Mexican Grand Prix 2023 pre-qualifying favorites

Max Verstappen (-350 to -400)

Could it be anyone else? Verstappen has dominated Formula 1 in 2023 and has won this race four times in five years. He's already surpassed his points total from a year ago when he similarly crushed the competition, making this year a beyond-superlative performance.

And even if he somehow doesn't win, he'll probably be second as he has only finished worse than that once in 2023.

Sergio Perez (+700 to +750)

Verstappen's Red Bull teammate is next in line at most books. Checo has been a fine running mate, winning a pair of races earlier in the year and finishing on the podium more often than not. Still, Perez has missed the podium in four straight, finishing fourth at the United States GP last weekend and 10th in Qatar the race before.

Still, he's second in the Drivers' Championship standings because his results have generally been stellar.

Lewis Hamilton (+1,000 to +1,200)

Hamilton is the only active driver other than Verstappen to have a win at this race, claiming the checkered flag back in 2019. And while he's lost a step or two, he still finished second in Mexico City in each of the last two years.

He is also coming off a US Grand Prix where he initially finished P2 before being disqualified and stripped of that position. Can this serve as a rebound and perhaps a return to form for Hamilton? He still hasn't won a race since the 2021 Saudi Arabia GP.

Mexican Grand Prix opening odds reaction

Race prediction: Max Verstappen to win (-275 at BetMGM)

Although -275 against the rest of the grind is seemingly ludicrous, those odds represent the longest opening odds Verstappen has had since at least the Austrian Grand Prix (-280) which was a whopping ten races ago.

Such a drastic change in his market would indicate poor recent form or poor past performances at this particular track, but neither is the case. Verstappen has won 15 of this year's 18 races, 13 of the last 14, and the last three.

In terms of the Mexican Grand Prix, Mad Max is not only the reigning back-to-back winner of the event but also has won four of the last five (sixth in 2019). And outside of last year's double win his other three wins have come from outside of pole position, demonstrating a consistent ability to climb the grid.

It's not often this is said, but Verstappen represents some value before this weekend's festivities begin.

Lean: Bet prior to qualifying.

Best bet: Lando Norris to podium (+130 at Caesars)

Going into last week's race, we highlighted the recent excellent form of Lando Norris. He added to that with a strong second-place finish, passing pole position holder Charles LeClerc in the process.

He has not finished outside of the Top 8 in 10 straight races — with six of those finishes being on the podium — including five second-place finishes. He has also held or improved his position in nine of those races, and has now strung together three straight second-place finishes in the process.

Last week this prop opened at -140 and I only recommended a bet if he reached even odds or better (which he did), and this week he opens even longer.

Lean: Bet prior to qualifying.

Best bet: Lando Norris to win (+2,000 at Caesars)

Continuing with Norris' value proposition, there's more to chew on here with the race win as well.

Granted he has finished ninth and t10th in his last two appearances here, but those types of trends would have held true for most of any of the races he has performed well at this year. The fact of the matter is that Norris has demonstrably proven that he is a much better and much different driver than the Norris of the past.

Obviously, Verstappen is rightfully the massively large favorite for Sunday's race and sure, he is ultimately likely to win. But for Norris to be so firmly behind the likes of Sergio Perez (+1,000) and Lewis Hamilton (+1,200) is rather insulting and more importantly a likely indicator of value.

On top of that, there is potential for his odds to get even longer if any of those ahead of him in odds have a great showing before the race. Don't bet the house on it, but Norris is at least worth some lunch money.

Lean: Bet before qualifying, and bet post-qualifying if his odds get longer.

Previous Mexican Grand Prix winners

Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

• Sergio Perez +1,400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

• Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

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