I figured with the fight a day away, instead of having 15-20 seperate threads with individual plays on the fight we could condense everything and get the plays discussion going here for the fight.
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I figured with the fight a day away, instead of having 15-20 seperate threads with individual plays on the fight we could condense everything and get the plays discussion going here for the fight.
I have Mayweather in two parlays; one large future parlay with a nice payout that has been going for over a month and another parlay that Mayweather closes from last week. I am hedging, with a couple of small Oscar plays. For those that don't follow my plays or picks, since I take it there will be some boxing forum newbies in here this weekend; 1 unit=$100.
1 unit parlay to win 5.57 units: Froch (-610) Kessler (-425) Pacquiao (-600) Sturm (-260) Mayweather (-220) Taylor (-350) Ibragimov (-195)
1 unit parlay to win 1.29: Calderon (-450) Torres (-600) Mayweather (-165)
Hedging with two small Oscar plays and the draw.....
.20 of a unit on Oscar by Split Decision (+1400) .20 of a unit on Oscar by Majority Decision (+1800) .10 of a unit on a Draw (+1600)
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I have Mayweather in two parlays; one large future parlay with a nice payout that has been going for over a month and another parlay that Mayweather closes from last week. I am hedging, with a couple of small Oscar plays. For those that don't follow my plays or picks, since I take it there will be some boxing forum newbies in here this weekend; 1 unit=$100.
1 unit parlay to win 5.57 units: Froch (-610) Kessler (-425) Pacquiao (-600) Sturm (-260) Mayweather (-220) Taylor (-350) Ibragimov (-195)
1 unit parlay to win 1.29: Calderon (-450) Torres (-600) Mayweather (-165)
Hedging with two small Oscar plays and the draw.....
.20 of a unit on Oscar by Split Decision (+1400) .20 of a unit on Oscar by Majority Decision (+1800) .10 of a unit on a Draw (+1600)
1 unit on FMayJr.-2oo, closing a three month old 5 team Parlay to win 2.45 units. 1 unit on F.MayJr.+1o9 by any decision, closing WNF's, NBA Series prices, WTA, NBA Prop to win 4.55 units.
That is all I have. Might take a run at some sorta fade, for 3/10ths of a unit on ODLH SU, IF I can find the ShoBox u.card line???
GLA! bigeiii
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1 unit on FMayJr.-2oo, closing a three month old 5 team Parlay to win 2.45 units. 1 unit on F.MayJr.+1o9 by any decision, closing WNF's, NBA Series prices, WTA, NBA Prop to win 4.55 units.
That is all I have. Might take a run at some sorta fade, for 3/10ths of a unit on ODLH SU, IF I can find the ShoBox u.card line???
I usually lurk in this forum and have an enormous amount of respect for the usualls who share there info and thoughts on the weekly boxing card. All who contribute do an outstanding job ! CUDOS to the board . My one tid bit of info to share ( and by all means do with it what you wish ) is that there was an enormous wager laid on Oscar early in the week by a gentleman who supposedly is close to the mainstream boxing inner circle whoever that may be . I have an old friend from the neighborhood out in Vegas that I stay in contact with that is privy to such info and thought i might share with the fellas here . Nothing is ever a sure thing that I know but if you can gain an edge you take it . I believe Floyd is to quick , better stamina , and hungry to show his prowess . Having said that it is troubling to me that the overwhelming majority are pounding Floyd but yet this line stays soft. Soft enough to entice you to hop on the gravy train ! Don't be fooled by the late money in this fight . Celebrity action will carry the majority of late movement in a super fight like this . They always hit the window late . Buyer Be Ware ! Good Luck To All
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I usually lurk in this forum and have an enormous amount of respect for the usualls who share there info and thoughts on the weekly boxing card. All who contribute do an outstanding job ! CUDOS to the board . My one tid bit of info to share ( and by all means do with it what you wish ) is that there was an enormous wager laid on Oscar early in the week by a gentleman who supposedly is close to the mainstream boxing inner circle whoever that may be . I have an old friend from the neighborhood out in Vegas that I stay in contact with that is privy to such info and thought i might share with the fellas here . Nothing is ever a sure thing that I know but if you can gain an edge you take it . I believe Floyd is to quick , better stamina , and hungry to show his prowess . Having said that it is troubling to me that the overwhelming majority are pounding Floyd but yet this line stays soft. Soft enough to entice you to hop on the gravy train ! Don't be fooled by the late money in this fight . Celebrity action will carry the majority of late movement in a super fight like this . They always hit the window late . Buyer Be Ware ! Good Luck To All
Fullbrights- I know you like the over 11.5, as do I. It's down to -240 at the Greek. A couple of weeks ago it was over -300. Are you surprised the public is buying it down? Are we being suckered in?
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Fullbrights- I know you like the over 11.5, as do I. It's down to -240 at the Greek. A couple of weeks ago it was over -300. Are you surprised the public is buying it down? Are we being suckered in?
I'm not sure if this is going to be a biased pick or what. But I am going with Oscar DE LA Hoya. Although I was not impressed with his performance against Mayorga I still think he has what it takes to beat Mayweather. He will easily be the biggest fighter that Mayweather has fought. How come people haven' brought up that mayweahter is moving up in weight? he was already slowed by going to 147 (I recently watched the baldomir fight and noticed he was slower than usual). Mayweather does not have the power to hurt DLH. I think if DLH comes out with a smart plan and lets FLoyd just fight defense he can win a decision....I also like the draw as there is always controversy in a big fight.
PLAYS
DLH by decision
Over 11.5 Rounds
DRAW
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I'm not sure if this is going to be a biased pick or what. But I am going with Oscar DE LA Hoya. Although I was not impressed with his performance against Mayorga I still think he has what it takes to beat Mayweather. He will easily be the biggest fighter that Mayweather has fought. How come people haven' brought up that mayweahter is moving up in weight? he was already slowed by going to 147 (I recently watched the baldomir fight and noticed he was slower than usual). Mayweather does not have the power to hurt DLH. I think if DLH comes out with a smart plan and lets FLoyd just fight defense he can win a decision....I also like the draw as there is always controversy in a big fight.
Fullbrights- I know you like the over 11.5, as do I. It's down to -240 at the Greek. A couple of weeks ago it was over -300. Are you surprised the public is buying it down? Are we being suckered in?
That's a great price; it is not falling everywhere, it actually rose from -265 this morning at 5dimes to -280 now. The public usually loves + numbers on unders for big fights, so it may fall a bit more.
I endorse the play. I'm not on it as the parlay I had it in went down last week; I am just going to stick with the two Mayweather parlays posted up top and my DLH hedges.
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Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:
Fullbrights- I know you like the over 11.5, as do I. It's down to -240 at the Greek. A couple of weeks ago it was over -300. Are you surprised the public is buying it down? Are we being suckered in?
That's a great price; it is not falling everywhere, it actually rose from -265 this morning at 5dimes to -280 now. The public usually loves + numbers on unders for big fights, so it may fall a bit more.
I endorse the play. I'm not on it as the parlay I had it in went down last week; I am just going to stick with the two Mayweather parlays posted up top and my DLH hedges.
Your bets are structured poorly.You have $1500 invested in FM by Decision.You have $650 invested in FM by KO.Those events are mutually exclusive.If you want, I can demonstrate mathematically how you are costing yourself money.
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Quote Originally Posted by Crazyremy:
$3,500 FM -170
$1,500 FM Dec. +110
$350 FM via KO +400
$50 FM KO 8 +2500
$50 FM KO 9 +3500
$75 FM KO 10 +3000
$75 FM KO 11 +2000
$50 FM KO 12 +1500
Your bets are structured poorly.You have $1500 invested in FM by Decision.You have $650 invested in FM by KO.Those events are mutually exclusive.If you want, I can demonstrate mathematically how you are costing yourself money.
I will have either $2K or $3K on PBF to win, not outcome specific. I was gonna risk 5 dimes, but my wife made a good point...that would be all my winnings over the last month. So, I expect to get about a -165 price at Reno tomorrow.
Good luck guys. If nothing else, it should be competitive early.
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I will have either $2K or $3K on PBF to win, not outcome specific. I was gonna risk 5 dimes, but my wife made a good point...that would be all my winnings over the last month. So, I expect to get about a -165 price at Reno tomorrow.
Good luck guys. If nothing else, it should be competitive early.
Looking at this and other threads, I think some people are getting caught up with the "size advantage" of DLH.
Is DLH bigger? Yes. Has he been fighting at 147 or higher for longer? Yes. Is he naturally bigger? Not really. DLH started at 133 PBF at 131. I agree that DLH's shoulders allowed for a better adjustment to the weight, but I am not sure he has all that much more power than PBF at that weight. Sure, he knocked out Mayorga, who stood right in front of him. He also got tagged in the second round of that fight where I was worried, for a second, about the $13K I risked.
Look at DLH's recent fights...struggeld with Vargas. "Lost" to Mosely. "Won" over Sturm in very, very close fight. Got killed by Hopkins. Then, beat human punching bag Mayorga, who was pretty shot. Never imressive in any of these fights.
PBF destroyed his last three opponents Sharmba Mitchell, Judah and Baldomir. The win over Baldomir showed me just how good he really is. Never got hit, really. He will not stand right in front of DLH like Mayorga did. DLH will have to find him, and close...not his specialty.
DLH will have to fight moving forward, chasing PBF. I cannot remember the last time he had to move that much. Mosely did not make him work the way PBF will.
Now, DLH can win, for sure. But, he will have to catch PBF early. Also, don't forget the X-factor. Who is PBF's trainer? That's right, DLH's former trainer. Remember what Goosen was able to do in the same situation with Corrales over Casamayor? Remember what John Gurden did to the Raiders?
Floyd has a huge advantage in his corner. He will win easily IMO.
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Looking at this and other threads, I think some people are getting caught up with the "size advantage" of DLH.
Is DLH bigger? Yes. Has he been fighting at 147 or higher for longer? Yes. Is he naturally bigger? Not really. DLH started at 133 PBF at 131. I agree that DLH's shoulders allowed for a better adjustment to the weight, but I am not sure he has all that much more power than PBF at that weight. Sure, he knocked out Mayorga, who stood right in front of him. He also got tagged in the second round of that fight where I was worried, for a second, about the $13K I risked.
Look at DLH's recent fights...struggeld with Vargas. "Lost" to Mosely. "Won" over Sturm in very, very close fight. Got killed by Hopkins. Then, beat human punching bag Mayorga, who was pretty shot. Never imressive in any of these fights.
PBF destroyed his last three opponents Sharmba Mitchell, Judah and Baldomir. The win over Baldomir showed me just how good he really is. Never got hit, really. He will not stand right in front of DLH like Mayorga did. DLH will have to find him, and close...not his specialty.
DLH will have to fight moving forward, chasing PBF. I cannot remember the last time he had to move that much. Mosely did not make him work the way PBF will.
Now, DLH can win, for sure. But, he will have to catch PBF early. Also, don't forget the X-factor. Who is PBF's trainer? That's right, DLH's former trainer. Remember what Goosen was able to do in the same situation with Corrales over Casamayor? Remember what John Gurden did to the Raiders?
Floyd has a huge advantage in his corner. He will win easily IMO.
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