Marquez vs Diaz

Everyone and their mom is picking Marquez (I am too), but if youv'e seen Juan training (I live in Houston) then you would have to view the line as inflated. Ronnie Shields has Juan throwing combinations and then sliding out. Diaz has faster hands than Marquez and I can see Diaz once again winning most of the early rounds. They've also been working on using the jab alot more (Diaz has a better jab in my opinion) and "fighting in spurts" so as to not tire or be as susceptible to uppercuts. Speaking on uppercuts, they're also working on defending this punch and countering it with combos. I've heard some say that Diaz isn't capable of changing his style and that is complete bullshit to me. Diaz will never be light on his feet, but at 37 yrs old, Marquez isn't either. I'll concede that Paulie made Diaz look bad, but Paulie's got amazingly quick feet and a long fast jab. Paulie's style is Diaz' kryptonite. Diaz' bad showings is why the line is more inflated than it should be.

 I'm picking Marquez by a very uncomfortable dec. Marquez always has a mid rounds surge (not counting Mayweather fight) and I believe Marquez can hurt Diaz with one punch but not the other way around. I hate to dissapoint but I guarantee this fight will be more tactical than the first. I'll probably end up pounding the over and/or the Diaz +15.5  points prop.

BTW, Ive heard some people refer to Diaz as a spent bullet which is complete bullshit to me. He's going to fight a more tactical fight this time but he'll look more like "he's in his prime" than Marquez when he throws his combos. Waht I'm saying is people shouldn't consider a Marquez win a sure thing.

I'll be heavily invested in JMM ITD.  I already have two units on JMM in rds 7-12 at +296.  I will post my fifteen word writeup on Saturday. 

Diaz is spent as a fighter, he's been beaten too many times, his style cannot change no matter what they say. He's LOST to every (Technical Boxer he has faced).

Counter punchers always do better in rematches and Marquez is a good counter puncher.

Diaz doesn't even punch with his head up, he's never been in shape never seen a fight where he didn't have his baby fat.

I like Marquez in this fight I believe he stops Diaz just about the same time he stopped him before. Maybe a round or two later.

Once Diaz sees blood (his own) he checks out mentally. He doesn't have a plan (B) when plan (A) doesn't work.

I do believe the fight will play out in the early rounds the same Diaz will come out strong, but this time he won't be able to bully Marquez around the ring because Marquez already figured him out.

Diaz needs a KO to win, and he's not fighting in Houston for home cooking.

Odds are right on in my opinion.

MY .2 cents, for what it's worth.

I'm waiting for a points handicap on the Casamayor fight to parlay with the Marquez :)

Good luck to everyone.


                                     

Have to agree with Datmofo on this one.

I had a large wager on JMM in the 1st fight but I think the situation is greatly different in the re-match. JMM... now 36 years young has to be thinking about ending his great career in the not so distant future. Diaz..although coming off 2 not so impressive showings (I thought he lost both of the fights against PM) is only 26 & still has a few decent years to correct his boxing flaws. Diaz knows he made some tactical mistakes in bout 1 by squaring up & allowing JMM to counter at will in the latter part of the fight. I have to assume that his trainer will try to correct this error in the re-match. Remember... Diaz was winning the early part of the 1st fight by putting constant pressure on the the older fighter. He has to mix up his attack this time around & not let JMM figure out exactly what adjustments need to be made in his in counter punching strategies. Diaz has a decent jab which could be the key to holding off some of JMM counter aggression by maintaining a fast pace. As great as a boxer as JMM is ...his defense still leaves leaves him vulnerable to getting out hustled. Stylistically JMM is probably a better match-up for Diaz then PM was. He won't have to worry about the vast difference in hand & foot speed that he did in his last 2 fights. Bottom line for me is I can't see an aging fighter,who has been coming up & down in weight recently as a better then 4-1 favorite. It just doesn't calculate to me. Right now I see JMM as a 18.5 point handicap to win on Saturday. I'll gladly take those points with an underdog that has a realistic chance of pulling off the upset if everything goes his way. In any event...... I don't see a blowout & think that Diaz should put up gallant effort. The kid's got a lot of heart as does JMM. Enjoy the fight.

The only argument I'll buy for Diaz winning is people think the move up to welterweight (and subsequent drop) is going to hurt JMM.  Maybe he'll be slower and look old.  That's the only way. 

Diaz has always been easy to hit.  How is that going to change? 

JMM is a precise puncher and counter-puncher.  Diaz's charge forward style is perfect for him, especially since he has no power. 

While It's true Diaz doesn't pack one punch power, his accumulation of punches can be very annoying. This one could come down to who wants it more,& in that regard I'll give a sleight edge to Diaz.

The baby fat part is straight up offensive. Juan Diaz has fat boy genetics (should have seen his fat ass as a kid). Kermit Cintron (ripped and muscular) trains in the same gym(same conditioning coach) but Diaz puts every fighter at Savanah's gym to shame with his work ethic. Seriously.

Keep in mind Diaz is trained by Ronnie Shields who is a world class trainer. Adjustments have been made. Like I said earlier I'm picking Marquez by dec, but I don't count Diaz out. This is coming from a guy who has a membership at Savanah's so I've seen it all with my own eyes.

Nacho Beristein (Marquez' trainer) has predicted a dec win for Marquez. He also has stated that he'd like to keep Marquez away from Amir Khan but Marquez himself wants the Khan fight. The fact that Beristein wants to play it safe tells me that he knows he's not dealing with the same fighter of 3 yrs ago. Marquez has shown a progessive decline in foot speed and jumpiness over the years. He's lucky Diaz doesn't have explosive legs.

Khan would be a disasterous match-up for Marquez at this point in his career IMO.

I'm actually disappointed this rematch was made. Not because the first fight was bad (it was anything but that) but rather because Diaz has had time/fights to show improvement and I have yet to see it. He is clearly not a top echelon guy in the 135 lb. division. He's a very likable kid, just not a great fighter, at least not the fighter so many wanted him to be. 

And on the flip-side, Juan Manuel Marquez has clearly shown diminishing skills/speed since the 2nd Pacquiao fight. In fact, I even thought he looked vulnerable in the 1st fight with Diaz, which surprised me considering Diaz's style seems almost custom made for a great counterpucher. But because JMM is one of the smartest fighters ever and is able to make adjustments on the fly, he makes up for what he now lacks as a result of age and wars. I believe his tactics and smarts will get him through this fight (not drinking piss or sleeping in hyperbaric chambers). But seriously, what does the future hold for either one of these guys ? There's nothing enticing about potential future matchups for the winner of this fight. Hence, what's the significance of this fight? It seemed alot more relevant early last year.

But such is the state of the sport. Watered down talent versus once great fighters on the decline. C'mon boxing, we can do better than this.

nice writes up from all of you posters - well done, thats what this forum is all about

Listen you can be right on this I just favor Marquez in this. I think once that bell rings we all know anything can happen.

Marquez is no spring chicken can he get old over night? Sure, but even him getting old over night would make for an even fight that would  probably go to Marquez. Plus would make for a great war.

Diaz has no where to  go even with a win, the fact he lacks a punch and is not really a marketable fighter (as a main event/PPV).

If Marquez wins, he has MANY OPTIONS all of those which probably wouldn't be good for his health . I think Khan would send him into retirement and Bradley would beat him too, Oh and Devon Alexander.

Think about it Diaz wins, who in the world would want to see him fight any of those three? Granted Marquez at his age would lose, but still a much better draw from the fans for a PPV.

All this and Diaz would have to MOVE UP to 140 to fight, he doesn't pack a punch at 135, he won't at 140.  Remember Diaz gave Marquez problems because Marquez is naturally the smaller fighter his best was at 130.

Good luck, hope we have a great fight :)

                            

Neither fighter is super marketable at this point, but I'm not understanding what that has to do with who will win on Saturday?

Red watch Diaz versus Malinaggi I, Paulie won easily... got robbed because he's a pillow puncher and fans don't buy that stuff (good for maybe an under card).

They gave the decision to Diaz because he was MORE marketable at the time, also it was in Houston.

I know you may not think Marquez is marketable but if he wins this fight.. he is all but sure a BIG PPV event against AMIR KHAN.

Now I stated I think Khan will put him into retirement with his speed and movement but still will be a BIG PPV seller assuming he wins.

Now if Diaz wins.. well there will be no Amir Khan Bradley Alexander or anyone else who will fight him because it's a complete mismatch and Juan Diaz is not  PPV material.

Point is if the fight is close, say even  in our eyes and goes the distance.. I believe Marquez would get the nod because the talks of KHAN are already buzzing.

Sort of like when Oscar clearly lost to Felix Sturm yet had a PPV ahead with Hopkins.. guess who got the win :).

Personally it doesn't make a difference Diaz better hope he KO's Marquez early or Marquez grew super old other wise he will be back where the last fight ended. :)

                                         

  Rich....      I'm not a conspiracy theory type of guy but I see your point.

Thanks Red good luck with your wagers, action packed night, even fights in Mexico! 

Diaz fought too smart. His outside boxing skills looked better than ever but why try to outbox a superior boxer. If you're a pressure fighter you're not going to outthink a mastermind.