Plays for the Week (It's Pavlik time)

Good to hear, glad I could help.  Taylor made some adjustments tonight and really did what he had to do to last the distance and keep his career intact.  I give him a lot of credit for making the adjustments he needed to.  He was more conservative with his punch output (though as a buddy of mine said, it was a catch 22), he decided to take his left hand off his waist for a change and keep a high guard, plus he didn't spend time on the ropes. 

Taylor wanted to survive tonight and keeping his punch output down was his best shot at that, but he can't beat Pavlik like that unless he catches him with something fluky early on.  I still think that Taylor's best chance if he wanted to win was to really go after Kelly tonight in the 1st three rounds, though he may have been a bit gun shy after what Pavlik did to him in the 1st.

I really think if they fight 10 times, Pavlik beats him at least 9 times; probably 10.

3 units on Castillo (+130) vs Montiel
Horrible call on my part.  Castillo looked horrible and Montiel looked like he turned back the clock.  Montiel really looked good, but I still can't get over how bad Castillo looked.  I still can't get over how far I was off here.
1.85 units on Pavlik (-185)
5 units on Pavlik (-175)
1.65 units on Pavlik ITD (-105)
.10 of a unit on Pavlik by KO round 9 (+1700)
Well as I stated above, Taylor made the changes he needed to in order to hear the final bell ring.  I give him a lot of credit for hanging in there late in the fight when fatigued.  You could really tell that body shot in the 11th took what he had left out of him, but he hung in there.  Plus, that was disturbing 1st round for him, I thought for a minute he might not get out of it  That was a gut check and he passed.

Parlay pushes through to Wlad next week.
1.5 unit parlay to win 1.62
Alvarado (-250)
Mijares (-390)
Wlad (-550)
What was up with that 120-108 Navarro card in the Mijares fight?  Without a doubt that was the worst card EVER.

Lost .89 of a unit for the week.  I need to get 2008 rolling.

 

 

Very interesting analysis of the fight....do you think that Taylor kept his punch output down because he was afraid of exchanging with Pavlik or because he was afraid of getting tired in the later rounds?  Either way, Jermain Taylor was completely different 3-5 years ago when he was stalking his opponents and dismantling them from the opening bell.   It's a bold statement, but you might be right that Pavlik would beat Taylor 9 or 10 times out of 10. 

 

 

SportsFan: At least your boy lasted the distance and kept some marketability.  Still think I am wrong in saying that Kelly has the better jab and he could win a decision?

 

LOL----the 120-108 Navarro decision was so bad that they really must have written the wrong name down on the card and gotten the two Latinos confused!   That's the only explanation.

To all on here who bet Pavlik SU.  I have a feeling that I wasn't the only one though who gave back some Pavlik SU winnings on a Pavlik KO prop; the books did well with that final result.

I think it was to conserve energy for the later rounds, didn't help though, Pavlik swept those.  He didn't want to get stopped tonight.  I actually thought coming in that JT may have called it a day if Kelly stopped him a second time even at the age of 29; he's made a lot of money, got a nice family, and he really doesn't like boxing very much.  He still has some marketability, so he will move up to 168 now.

JT will always have stamina issues, it probably doesn't help that he is not a big fan of road work.  It wasn't hard to stalk down hand picked junior middleweights that he had a big size advantage over.  That's now loss #4 IMO for Taylor.

Good night for you FB. A friend of mine convinced me that Castillo was a spent force, but I was locked out of covers somehow for like 3 hours tonight. I didn't see Montiel dismantling him so comprehensively though.
Pavlik -6.5 points handicap was the best value in this fight. I disagree entirely with anyone who had this fight near a draw. Taylor decided after round 4 that he was fighting to survive (see Roy-Tarver III). You just can't win a fight eating punches for minutes at a time with no response.

You jinked it when you said it was "for sure."

Like I said, the results usually aren't favorable on these 100% bankroll bets.

Castillo hadn't looked great of late, but neither had Montiel.  I liked Castillo's pairing with Perez and I really thought he would capitalize on his technical advantages.  I was way off, it happens.

LetMeSpin: Forgot to add my congrats on a nice night.  Way to rebound after last week.  Very nice decision to take that points handicap rather than the KO prop, wish I would have done the same and not give back Pavlik SU winnings.

Tough result Bigs.  Get it back next week.

That was a great fight.  It's not every day you get six knockdowns in a 4 round fight, LOL.  Talk about a scary win.

I guess it's time to hit the hay, I can't remember the last time I was up this late.  I was really keyed up for this fight, I am still running off adrenaline.

Appreciate that FB. This year has had 2 huge weekends and 1 sickening one for me. Final comment on Jermain Taylor:

I think he's retiring. You're correct that he doesn't really like training and he doesn't really love boxing. He's set for life financially, and I think part of the reason he took this rematch, was because he didn't want to train for a tune-up. Maybe I'm way off, but in the ring interview he certainly didn't sound like a man with a future in this sport.

 

Wouldn't a Jermain Taylor/Mikkel Kessler fight be interesting?  Action-packed....the winner gets a title shot of the winner of Calzaghe/Hopkins....or maybe Tarver?

I would certainly watch SF, but I just don't feel Jermain wants to fight anymore. We'll see though.

Sorry, I haven't gotten back over here this week to reply back.

You know it's funny you tend to remember the unlucky ones a lot more than the lucky ones.  I think that's the case with all bettors.

Unluckiest:
I guess one of the unlucky ones that sticks out the most in my mind is Corrales-Castillo I.  Mainly because it was such a memorable fight action wise and a fight no fan will soon forget.  I had a larger than normal wager on Castillo and I will never forget how that mouthpiece sequence played out.  A fighter shouldn't be able to buy critical time when seriously hurt by taking out their mouthpiece multiple times.  That was a pretty hypocritical move by Chico as he had criticized Freitas harshly for doing the same thing in his previous fight.  Don't get me wrong, Chico is still a warrior in my book for his courage in the ring (not many would have kept getting up against PBF) but it was a cowardly move especially when you had called out your previous opponent for doing the same thing. I guess it worked out in the end as it was Corrales's crowning achievement in a life that would end far too soon.  If you notice, Tony Weeks now warns fighters before fights about how he handles the mouthpiece situation, if you do it now he will DQ you.  I did get a bit of luck in their rematch though as I placed my wager on Castillo before the weigh-in and reaped the reward of him being stronger because of not having to make weight.
Unluckiest of 2007: I was a victim of the dubious Casamoyer-Santa Cruz decision.

Luckiest:
None, JK.  Really though, last year it didn't feel like I got one; every controversial decision in a fight I bet on went against me.  Some may not consider this bet luck, but I do.  I cashed the draw in Wright-Taylor on $50 at 15-1.  Firstly, any time you cash a draw there is some luck involved, but the reason I consider this lucky was the fact that I thought Winky won the fight.  I've watched the fight 2-3 times since and scored it for Wright every time.  It was a controversial decision in my mind, but I was smiling when that decision was announced.
Luckiest of 2007: It wasn't a large bet, but I cashed the under in Bute-Berrio by 3 seconds.