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Plays for the Week (It's Pavlik time)

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LarryParker

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Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 1:10 PM ET #26

Another interesting side note is that there will be NO TITLE AT STAKE. Making this purely a REVENGE fight.

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Fullbrights

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Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 1:21 PM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan8890:

i like JT in this fight. If you watch the first fight (which you say you have over and over again) I think the only problem for JT was the pace. His corner also said something about him fighting at a fast pace and it would be too fast for Kelly, which was HORRIBLE advice. If JT can just pop out that jab all night and not get over anxious like he did in the 2nd round of their first fight, he should be able to coast to a decision. I actually see this going the distance unless JT stops Kelly. JT has to have gone to the drawing board on his defensive tactics that he had in the first fight. JT has the ability to go to different things with his speed, to his jab, and to his power if he has to. Kelly only has one way of winning this fight and that is to hurt JT. Only thing that worries me is the odds on this fight. I would expect it to be a pick em at best if not JT being a good favorite. We'll see, hopefully its as good as the first one

Well it looks like others have already countered your post, but I thought that I would throw my two cents in. I'll be the first to say Saturday night if you are right by backing Taylor, but your post contains some statements that just aren't true.

I think the only problem for JT was the pace. His corner also said something about him fighting at a fast pace and it would be too fast for Kelly, which was HORRIBLE advice.

Yeah, I didn't quite understand what Steward was saying there because Pavlik always fights at a fast pace. Kelly was the one controlling the pace, you don't control the pace when you are the one constantly backing up. Jermain has to fight at a fast pace, he really has no choice because Kelly's style forces him too.

If JT can just pop out that jab all night and not get over anxious like he did in the 2nd round of their first fight, he should be able to coast to a decision. I actually see this going the distance unless JT stops Kelly. JT has to have gone to the drawing board on his defensive tactics that he had in the first fight.

Uh? As I stated above to those who say.....Taylor will be more careful and box from the outside......What fight were you watching? How will this strategy help? Pavlik out jabbed Jermain from the outside and landed straight right hands all night from a distance. Jermain actually did his best work on the inside. Taylor may be a bit more careful, but that won't translate into success.
Pavlik has the better jab of the two and please tell me when you are saying that he can coast to a decision. The ring would have to be 100 feet wide and he would have to be on a moped; even then Kelly would still find a way to apply pressure.

JT has the ability to go to different things with his speed, to his jab, and to his power if he has to. Kelly only has one way of winning this fight and that is to hurt JT.

Jermain is very predictable. How can you say Pavlik can't win a decision if you watched the first fight? Kelly doesn't hurt you with one shot, he wears you down. Pavlik landed a ton of right hands last time and he will do the same again until Jermain reaches his breaking point.

Only thing that worries me is the odds on this fight. I would expect it to be a pick em at best if not JT being a good favorite.

Those odds would have been flip flopped very quickly with action from bettors. That KO was the type that can change a career.

We'll see, hopefully its as good as the first one

We agree here.

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Zumbize

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Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 668

Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 1:42 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:

SF I just think you're wrong on almost every angle of this fight. Possibly dead, yes. At the time of Tarver-Jones II, I would argue that Roy had been hit no more than JT up to the KP fight in his career. The beating he took from KP doesn't just make you old, it changes your career. How old was Fernando Vargas when he retired? Maybe a shade under 30, but he hadn't been the same since Trinidad murdered him 7 years ago. So, yes, a knockout like that does mean he's past his prime. In my view, Taylor will never be the same.

I actually disagree that Taylor has the power to stop Pavlik. KP has sledge hammer power that puts guys to sleep.
Who is the last top fighter JT KO'd? Daniel Edouard? He has quick, explosive power that stuns you, but I think it would take another equilibrium shot and a clinical follow up to get Kelly out of there. I simply don't think Jermain is capable of producing that, not anymore at least.

I see the Taylor - Pavlik I knockout as being more of a psychological hurdle for Taylor than a physical one. He has been hesitant to throw in recent fights, which you could chalk up to his being uncomfortable with Steward, fighting smaller men, or bad mechanics. On Saturday, it's going to be because he won't want to get hit back.

But that fight did not fall into the Golota - Bowe, Trinidad - Vargas category of life altering beatdowns. If Taylor had gotten up, beaten the count, and let Smoger be Smoger, it could have turned into that kind of night.

As for Taylor never being touched previously, not by a big man with power like Pavlik, no, but Winky and Bernard both had him buzzed. I don't recall Roy getting hit like that at any time before the first Tarver fight.

I'm leaning towards the Over 10.5. With an amateur style trainer, and the knowledge that he probably can't KO Pavlik, it would take an idiot move in a career full of them to go out there and slug with Kelly.

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SportsFan8890

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Posts: 1098

Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 1:44 PM ET #29

Fullbrights - I believe it was Round 5, if you go back and watch one of those middle rounds where JT easily won the round with his jab, eventhough he was backing up, he jabbed and threw that left hook to follow the jab. I believe that left hook might be the key to this fight as it seemed to land whenever he threw it. Looking at the scores from the first fight, I just don't think that KP can get a decision. If in the first fight, where I thought he may have been ahead at the point of the stoppage, the judges had him down 3 and 4 points.

G8RB8 - Manny Steward was also the one in the corner telling him to pick up the pace and that KP would wear down. I do believe that KP usually is the one that keeps up the high work rate in all of his fights so that advice he gave JT was wrong. You have to remember, any other ref would have stopped that fight in the 2nd round. I just think if JT doesn't blow his load like he did in those first two rounds, and go to the body a little to take away some of KPs power then he should be good to go the distance. I guess we will just see on fight night

LetMeSpin - I believe that was the first time in JT's career that he was really hurt. And he took KPs punches all night long, I just think it was just the amount of right hands that landed that eventually got to him and wore him down. I agree that JT doesn't have great power, but he has fast and quick hands and against KP a lot of his punches were looping shots, and if you get a few of those behind the ear then your going down no matter what. For your examples of Vargas and Roy, with Vargas I think he may have been put in a little too early with the big boys in Trinidad. I don't think Vargas was ever a REAL top fighter anyway, but his big fights just proved that. With Roy, he was on his way out when he got knocked out. If he fought Tarver and Glen Johnson even 5 years ago, his speed and elusiveness that he relied on his whole career would not have allowed him to get knocked out by those 2 C+ fighters.

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Fullbrights - I believe it was Round 5, if you go back and watch one of those middle rounds where JT easily won the round with his jab, eventhough he was backing up, he jabbed and threw that left hook to follow the jab. I believe that left hook might be the key to this fight as it seemed to land whenever he threw it. Looking at the scores from the first fight, I just don't think that KP can get a decision. If in the first fight, where I thought he may have been ahead at the point of the stoppage, the judges had him down 3 and 4 points.

G8RB8 - Manny Steward was also the one in the corner telling him to pick up the pace and that KP would wear down. I do believe that KP usually is the one that keeps up the high work rate in all of his fights so that advice he gave JT was wrong. You have to remember, any other ref would have stopped that fight in the 2nd round. I just think if JT doesn't blow his load like he did in those first two rounds, and go to the body a little to take away some of KPs power then he should be good to go the distance. I guess we will just see on fight night

LetMeSpin - I believe that was the first time in JT's career that he was really hurt. And he took KPs punches all night long, I just think it was just the amount of right hands that landed that eventually got to him and wore him down. I agree that JT doesn't have great power, but he has fast and quick hands and against KP a lot of his punches were looping shots, and if you get a few of those behind the ear then your going down no matter what. For your examples of Vargas and Roy, with Vargas I think he may have been put in a little too early with the big boys in Trinidad. I don't think Vargas was ever a REAL top fighter anyway, but his big fights just proved that. With Roy, he was on his way out when he got knocked out. If he fought Tarver and Glen Johnson even 5 years ago, his speed and elusiveness that he relied on his whole career would not have allowed him to get knocked out by those 2 C+ fighters.

SportsFan8890

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Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 1:45 PM ET #30

i like delvin rodriguez tonight, but his odds are kind of ridiculous

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G8RB8

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Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 2:00 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan8890:

G8RB8 - Manny Steward was also the one in the corner telling him to pick up the pace and that KP would wear down. I do believe that KP usually is the one that keeps up the high work rate in all of his fights so that advice he gave JT was wrong. You have to remember, any other ref would have stopped that fight in the 2nd round. I just think if JT doesn't blow his load like he did in those first two rounds, and go to the body a little to take away some of KPs power then he should be good to go the distance. I guess we will just see on fight night

He was telling JT to pick up the pace, because that's the only way to beat Pavlik. As Fullbrights said above, KP's style forces him to fight at a faster pace. JT has a natural hand speed advantage, which is the only tangible advantage he has over KP.

What was Manny supposed to tell him? Fight slower? Fact of the matter is, JT didn't have what it took to win - stamina, better defense, higher work rate. You can argue that JT has gone 12 rds his last 5 fights before that, but watching all of them, JT tends to fade late, and all of those fighters were a better match up for JT. Keep in mind Steward is arguably the best trainer in the business with one of the best resumes. . . if JT couldn't win with him in the corner, what is he going to do without him?

Sure, some refs would have stopped the fight. But fact of the matter is KP got right back up after the knockdown, and fought the rest of the fight in JT's face. JT has to fix a bunch of mistakes, and KP only has to fix one.

Bagel Sandwiches Suck

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LarryParker

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Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 2:03 PM ET #32

Let me add, that if this fight does go to the cards, then JT chances of winning icrease tenfold. He was ahead on the cards in the first fight, he did look better until the 4th or 5th round when the fatigue set in. And judges can be easily influenced, let's face it. A JT decision is by no means out of the realm of high probability.

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SportsFan8890

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Posts: 1098

Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 2:09 PM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by G8RB8:

He was telling JT to pick up the pace, because that's the only way to beat Pavlik. As Fullbrights said above, KP's style forces him to fight at a faster pace. JT has a natural hand speed advantage, which is the only tangible advantage he has over KP.

What was Manny supposed to tell him? Fight slower? Fact of the matter is, JT didn't have what it took to win - stamina, better defense, higher work rate. You can argue that JT has gone 12 rds his last 5 fights before that, but watching all of them, JT tends to fade late, and all of those fighters were a better match up for JT. Keep in mind Steward is arguably the best trainer in the business with one of the best resumes. . . if JT couldn't win with him in the corner, what is he going to do without him?

Sure, some refs would have stopped the fight. But fact of the matter is KP got right back up after the knockdown, and fought the rest of the fight in JT's face. JT has to fix a bunch of mistakes, and KP only has to fix one.

All KP has is that straight right hand. Nothing else. He doesn't go to the body, very big head hunter, he seems slow to me, doesn't move his head very much, just comes straight forward and thats it. Only time he "outboxed" JT was when JT was fatigued after trying to end it in that 2nd round. All JT has to really do is not get hit by that straight right hand, and he can easily win this fight. That is just my opinion. JT showed that he could slug with KP, showed that he can outbox him, and showed that he can hurt him as well. I just think hes going to fight a smarter fight this time around and will get the decision. That is just my opinion though. And since you think so highly of KP, you giving better odds then any of these sites around?

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LarryParker

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Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 2:09 PM ET #34

Finally, JT should have never parted with Pat Burns, Burns was/is an EXCELLENT trainer.

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G8RB8

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Posts: 30075

Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 2:48 PM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan8890:

All KP has is that straight right hand. Nothing else. He doesn't go to the body, very big head hunter, he seems slow to me, doesn't move his head very much, just comes straight forward and thats it. Only time he "outboxed" JT was when JT was fatigued after trying to end it in that 2nd round. All JT has to really do is not get hit by that straight right hand, and he can easily win this fight. That is just my opinion. JT showed that he could slug with KP, showed that he can outbox him, and showed that he can hurt him as well. I just think hes going to fight a smarter fight this time around and will get the decision. That is just my opinion though. And since you think so highly of KP, you giving better odds then any of these sites around?

No problem with giving your opinion man. I'm just giving mine too. This forum is a lot unlike the rest of the forums here. Opinions and discussions are welcomed and no need to apologize.

I know what he has to do to win man. . . and you're right with how he needs to win - avoid the right hand, fight a smarter fight, increase the work rate, etc. Problem is how do you expect him to do that in 4 months time, when he's never been able to change his whole career? The smart move was to face a fighter or two in between to try and improve, and give yourself confidence to take another hard punch or two, and not jump right back into the lions den. How is JT going to react when KP blitzes another fastball down the middle? Two? Three?

You also don't give the left of KP enough credit. His left is what helped to keep JT's hands down (that and his bad habits) a lot of the fight and allowed the right hand to find it's mark. Also, if you look at the KO, you'll see some devestating shots with the left too. KP drops bombs every which way, make no mistake about it.

Over time, when you bet on a boxer that's been boxing a long time to change his style to win a fight, it almost always never occurs, especially when he got KO'd the first time. JT is as stubborn as it gets, and can't help going back to his old ways. He's going to have a good round or two, then start moving backwards again as Pavlik advances with pressure, and the same result is going to occur. At least that's how I see it.

And no. . . I'm not giving better odds because the line is great for me. . . there's still a lot of value in Pavlik right now. It would have taken at least +225, probably +250 for me to think about betting JT.

We'll see tomorrow. . . and I'll be the second (behind Fullbrights) to admit I was wrong if JT pulls it out.

Bagel Sandwiches Suck

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Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan8890:

All KP has is that straight right hand. Nothing else. He doesn't go to the body, very big head hunter, he seems slow to me, doesn't move his head very much, just comes straight forward and thats it. Only time he "outboxed" JT was when JT was fatigued after trying to end it in that 2nd round. All JT has to really do is not get hit by that straight right hand, and he can easily win this fight. That is just my opinion. JT showed that he could slug with KP, showed that he can outbox him, and showed that he can hurt him as well. I just think hes going to fight a smarter fight this time around and will get the decision. That is just my opinion though. And since you think so highly of KP, you giving better odds then any of these sites around?

No problem with giving your opinion man. I'm just giving mine too. This forum is a lot unlike the rest of the forums here. Opinions and discussions are welcomed and no need to apologize.

I know what he has to do to win man. . . and you're right with how he needs to win - avoid the right hand, fight a smarter fight, increase the work rate, etc. Problem is how do you expect him to do that in 4 months time, when he's never been able to change his whole career? The smart move was to face a fighter or two in between to try and improve, and give yourself confidence to take another hard punch or two, and not jump right back into the lions den. How is JT going to react when KP blitzes another fastball down the middle? Two? Three?

You also don't give the left of KP enough credit. His left is what helped to keep JT's hands down (that and his bad habits) a lot of the fight and allowed the right hand to find it's mark. Also, if you look at the KO, you'll see some devestating shots with the left too. KP drops bombs every which way, make no mistake about it.

Over time, when you bet on a boxer that's been boxing a long time to change his style to win a fight, it almost always never occurs, especially when he got KO'd the first time. JT is as stubborn as it gets, and can't help going back to his old ways. He's going to have a good round or two, then start moving backwards again as Pavlik advances with pressure, and the same result is going to occur. At least that's how I see it.

And no. . . I'm not giving better odds because the line is great for me. . . there's still a lot of value in Pavlik right now. It would have taken at least +225, probably +250 for me to think about betting JT.

We'll see tomorrow. . . and I'll be the second (behind Fullbrights) to admit I was wrong if JT pulls it out.

SportsFan8890

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Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 1098

Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 3:07 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by G8RB8:

No problem with giving your opinion man. I'm just giving mine too. This forum is a lot unlike the rest of the forums here. Opinions and discussions are welcomed and no need to apologize.

I know what he has to do to win man. . . and you're right with how he needs to win - avoid the right hand, fight a smarter fight, increase the work rate, etc. Problem is how do you expect him to do that in 4 months time, when he's never been able to change his whole career? The smart move was to face a fighter or two in between to try and improve, and give yourself confidence to take another hard punch or two, and not jump right back into the lions den. How is JT going to react when KP blitzes another fastball down the middle? Two? Three?

You also don't give the left of KP enough credit. His left is what helped to keep JT's hands down (that and his bad habits) a lot of the fight and allowed the right hand to find it's mark. Also, if you look at the KO, you'll see some devestating shots with the left too. KP drops bombs every which way, make no mistake about it.

Over time, when you bet on a boxer that's been boxing a long time to change his style to win a fight, it almost always never occurs, especially when he got KO'd the first time. JT is as stubborn as it gets, and can't help going back to his old ways. He's going to have a good round or two, then start moving backwards again as Pavlik advances with pressure, and the same result is going to occur. At least that's how I see it.

And no. . . I'm not giving better odds because the line is great for me. . . there's still a lot of value in Pavlik right now. It would have taken at least +225, probably +250 for me to think about betting JT.

We'll see tomorrow. . . and I'll be the second (behind Fullbrights) to admit I was wrong if JT pulls it out.

Lol yeah the basketball and football forums tend to not like debate and difference much.

I agree that JT is very very stubborn, but if you notice the BHOP fights he does change for parts if not most of the fight. They tell him in the corner what he needs to do and he would do it. Just on occasion he would go back to his old ways. But in that fight BHOP wasn't as aggressive as KP is. As soon as JT gets hit with a good shot he does want to get back at the person. I agree that much, but I am thinking that if he just boxes a little more then he did, not even a LOT more then he did, in the first fight then he will be able to go the distance and get a 2-3 point victory on all the cards. That is just the way I see it. I don't think JT is going to knock KP out as some might think, the only way hes going to knock out KP is by landing the perfect looping shot.

In the end I don't think that JT needs to change THAT much, just a few things. Before he would always go back to his old style and be stubborn because HE WAS WINNING. Now he sees that sometimes what he does isn't always the best thing and if he really wants to win hes going to have to do some things differently. I think hes going to box a good fight, and land that left hook on KP all night. If he goes to the body a little during the early rounds, KPs punches won't sting as much (eventhough JT took a lot of right hands and took them well until the KO) and he'll be able to get a decision. We will see tomorrow.