WNF's, FNF's, HBO Talyor vs. Spinks; Miranda vs. Pavlik: (o5/19)

Who you gots???
GJohnson vs. MGriff headling WNF's. Both Old, neither one can afford an L right now. Johnson's volume punching vs. Griff's sharp counter-punching shoulder rolling routine???
Undercard looks pretty clear-cut, J^2.

FNF's:
Cruz vs. Raheem? (I have a lean here)
George vs. Hall? (still n0t sure on this one???, some help please?)

HBO:
EMiranda vs. Pavlik?
Taylor vs. Cory Spinks?

Big Deutchland card as well. Looks like it's time to clap some erasers to me.


bigeiii

Responded in the other thread, but let's get the new one going for the week.

Wednesday Night Fights
Common sense would tell you Johnson wins over the distance based on his volume punching and get in your face mentality, hence the odds.  I saw value on the decision prop for Griffin (it's even a bit higher now) and played it very small, this is a win or go home fight for him and I think he has a bit left in the tank.  I think we see a distance fight either way.  Joel Julio should be an easy winner on the undercard, I am looking to see where they set the O/U here as I envision an early departure here.
.25 of a unit on Griffin by 12rd Decision (+567) vs Johnson
1.6 units on Over 11.5 rounds (-160) in Johnson-Griffin

Friday Night Fights
Talk about an active fighter, I watched Zahir's opponent Cruz a month ago on Telefutura.  Raheem should be a heavy fave and be able to out slick Cruz over the distance.  Hall is a KO machine, but a very very washed up one, he looked like they had dug him out of the grave in his last outing with Johnson.  I think George gets the job done here, but don't know if I will be on the him until odds are offered.
No plays yet, because no lines

HBO
In my wildest dreams I cannot see Taylor losing to Spinks, way too big.  I still can't believe that 5Dimes opened up Taylor where they did.  I see Taylor taking Spinks out in the 10th or 11th.  There are too many questions surrounding whose chin will crack 1st in Pavlik-Miranda for me to take a side.  There is going to be some bombs thrown here for as long as it lasts, which is why I am on the under.  I may play Pavlik inside the distance small if I can get +300.
1.45 units on Under 9.5 rounds (-145) in Pavlik-Miranda
3.5 units on Jermain Taylor (-350) vs Cory Spinks

Taylor pushing through my long going parlay to the final leg.
1 unit to win 5.57:
Froch -610
Kessler -425
Pacquiao -600
Sturm -260
Mayweather -220
Taylor -350
Ibragimov -195

German Action
I won't spare everyone with details here, since many probably don't know these guys very well unless you are a diehard boxing fan.  Like the value I got on Vidoz, especially if he comes in better shape than last time; he was up 4-1 after 5 rounds before being KO'd in the 6th.  If he is in top shape he should be able to outclass Virchis  Line has dropped from the opener of +500 to +350.
.5 of a unit on Vidoz (+500) vs Virchis
1.1 units on under 9.5 rounds (-110) in Brahmer-Velazco
1 unit on under 8.5 rounds (+115) in Ulrich-Turchi

I sure do not like going against a Lefty. & I'm not sold George has the Voltage to out an admittedly thinning; if not out-right wearing-out, Hall. Hall can crack, this we know. & Hall has major Experience & Resume` edges. Might be a Total to be found here, rather than a side (to account for Hall's Power & fragile eggshell Chin)???

The more I study Z vs. Cruz the more I waffle. Might try a Total on that one (neither guy above .500 on KO's). As I'm just not all that sold on Z. But Cruz has been beaten 10 times, that's not by accident. & Cruz since 2005 seems to be a little bit diminished, & he was never exactly great.

I really like your -35o number, I only got in for -52o, waaaaaaaay too late. But I don't even mind -9oo Fullbrights. Though I'm starting to view JT as very likeable (outside the Ring), but very overated (inside the Ring). But Spinks does not have the dimensions to take JT, & he never has had the Power.

I kinda agry w/ your Jerry Totals, so I parroted them, & threw them in (by themselves) w/ this weeks side Chalk that I like. (JT, EM, SD, TL, JB, JD, YK).

Duddly is getting what I'll call evenly better, not making huge jumps, but a nice even improvment over the last 2-3 years. Strick' is a SouthPaw, & might distance JD, but does not have the Voltage to really mess w/ him. I like Kobori as well, his odds seem a little low to me; as JM tends to get stopped when stepping up.



bigeiii

FWIW:

The presssor stills I'm seeing today (Mon.) seem to suggest that The R.Warrior might have a conditioning edge here. But lets let the Toldeo's verify that; (or not).

GLA!
bigeiii

The Road Warrior has a conditioning edge over everyone that he fights, guaranteed.  If he didn't come to fight in tip-top condition like he always is he wouldn't be in the top 15 at 175.  Conditioning is what Glen depends on to outwork guys, he doesn't have the luxury of depending on power, speed, or raw skills to beat the top guys.  He is a fringe contender if he doesn't have his work ethic and the training regimen that Orlando puts him through in the Miami heat.

Is this a sage tatic by KellyPal? Or is this begging for a short-drop w/ a quick stop?

Or is this a preFight strategy smoke screen by KP?

GLA!
bigeiii

Interesting to see that Griff' has just gone thru the longest Training Camp of his Career for this fight. He's either very dialed-in; or overtrained at Age 36.

GLA!
bigeiii

Nothing yet

For 2nite; I have the UP in one chalky Parlay (all listed above; added the YK Japan side as well). Then "The Gentleman" SU (w/ same). But I took your 'tel Grif' via Decision advice & faded w/ it Fullbrights. I tabbed +74o, which I liked enough for 2/10ths of a unit. IF the counterpucnhing MG wins, I gotta think it is via Decision, as he's old, & rusty coming into 2nite, whereas GJ is just old & has the Warriors edge (pun intended).

GLA!
bigeiii

In nonLined action: I guess "Mean" Joe Green can crack a bit? B/c he KD his guy twice, & it did not look like he was fully wound up to me, not did it look like he landed cleanly or flush? I need to see more; but that might be a tip that MJG enjoys some real Voltage. I'll be looking for MJG down the road, in particular if he faces a guy w/ a thin beard.

TLC is the same, he turns out lights, & still does not overly impress me. Looks like he could fill out a bit more as well. That typed; I'd like to see JJ stay as low as he safely can. He does have substantial stopping Power at just over 150 lbs. Though I'm still not sure he can handle a real slick Boxer, & D if Welterweigh is not totally loaded w/ name Talent. So I'll be curious to see if old Marc Breland can transform JJ into more than a 1 tick (Power) pony???

GLA!
bigeiii

It appeared to me that after the Cut, 'telGriff's right hand came up to try to cross-guard his left-eye, & he wipped his left-eye a lot. You kan't Punch w/ a hand that is self-occupied like that. Then in the 7th to 8th, GJ seem to fig' this all out, as 'tel's offense had proverbially & literallry slowed down a bit. GJ then got his timing down, & slowly scored on shot after shot that found their way home. I was a little suprised by the MG corner, which beat me outta 1.2 units. But this week is all about EM anyways, & 1 unit did go thru.

That was not Griff' best, but GJ sure is a Pro. Ultimate workman, nothing great, 'cept his Conditioning, & Heart. GJ prolly gets beat again for the Lt.Heavy strap. But he's easy to like & he will test whomever he faces at worst.


bigeiii

.25 of a unit on Griffin by 12rd Decision (+567) vs Johnson
1.6 units on Over 11.5 rounds (-160) in Johnson-Griffin 

Griffin's corner hands me my first losing start to a week in quite some time.  Griffin had just thrown a jab and was flopping around with Johnson's clubbing shots he didn't even seem to be seriously hurt, I was surprised that the towel was brought into play.  Agree Bigeiii, Griffin wasn't the same fighter after getting the cut from the elbow, the eye wipe was one of his main weapons from there on out.  By the way, I haven't been able to stand Jorge Alonso ever since he made that bad call in the Reid-Lacy fight, he gets on my nerves big time.

Added one more play today....

.5 of a unit on Spartacus (+230) vs Oakey

I did not Ginko my closing Parlay left over from last week on the Road Warrior. So last nite was not so bad; came out a little over .3 units to the good. I like that.


bigeiii

FNF's:
I went for Z, & for George w/ JT, TL & SD.

Fbs/et al: how strong are you guys on George? I could only min.wager that one. Still not overly sure George is the right play, as Hall is the Lefty, has way more Voltage, & way more Experience. I might go back & throw a Hall ITD in here, or the Low. TIA.

GLA!
bigeiii

Only one play for me tonight....

.5 of a unit on under 7.5 rounds (+170) in George-Hall


Not very strong Bigeiii, I could not play him giving up that kind of chalk.  I don't like playing anything over -250 unless I find a nice parlay option with it, but even then I don't think I could lay almost 3-1 on George.  Looks like I am done for the week unless the odds on Pavlik rise some.  Saturday will tell whether Miranda is Lacy'esque, if he wins then I will jump on board the Edison train.  Until then I see a lot of flaws and chin issues, but maybe power can overcome those.

What say you on a Total for Hall vs. George? Maybe the tasty +16o LOW???

I've been studying Kelly a bit more. I'm gonna go back & use him (again) to hedge the now 5 units I've got, likely to all be closing on EM Saturday nite (as I like JT's chances). Here is what I'm seeing......"yes", Kelly at his best is indeed a tough match-up for EM. I'll grant the KP backers that. Kelly is long, can Box a bit, & has real-live Voltage to tag EM, IF KP picks his spots, & fights the mental fight of his life. That's how he beats EM, (if he does beat EM) between the ears.

On the other hand, I can see EM just bull-rushing KP, & overwhelming him early-on. KP is just not as physically strong as EM, in fact I doubt any1 at 160'ish is. So that's no smack being run on KP; but it's is an objective statement. (look at the Height diff', nearly 4`` to KP, so EM is indeed more compact) Also look at Reach, KP for such a tallish Height edge, is listed at a -1.5`` Reach disadvantage! Experience is almost dead even, but EM has a mild Resume` edge. Power does side w/ EM, though KP is Top-5 in Voltage himself at Middleweight.

So all of this makes me like EM ITD more, as I doubt he can outBox "The Ghost", if this fight goes the full 12 (not 10, but 12) Rounds. Then KP+648 via Decision or KP+140 SU come into play, and the LOW remains in play as well.


bigeiii

I added Hall vs. George won't go the Distance+100, w/ JT & Detuchland chalk.

GLA!
bigeiii

I had to take CB vs. any1 who is 11 for 11 in always being stopped. Threw that in w/ Stevie, & YK & Z, & the WGTD prop for Hall vs. George.

Also of note........legacy Spinks was heavy today (which is quite odd for some1 moving up & Weight); EM was slighty heavy as well. Both did eventually cut down to size. HTH's.

GLA!
bigeiii

.5 of a unit on Spartacus (+230) vs Oakey 
.5 of a unit on under 7.5 rounds (+170) in George-Hall


Rough start to the week, let's hope that tomorrow gets it back.  Raheem is putting me to sleep, I wouldn't care if he was never on TV again; does he not understand that this is why he can't get fights?  Bigeiii, why did you play the won't go instead of the under, it was just a 1:30 difference and much better odds, not that it mattered.

I have never seen a slick boxer with fast hands like Raheem clinch so much on the inside.  He is the lightweight version of John Ruiz.

Fullbrigts:

"Yes" I did play WNGTD, but five$0.10 graded this as Cancelled! Am I sad? None. Why? I think they had the incorrect # of Rounds listed, so this threw the pay--line & the actual setting thereof off. Everything else went thru or closed. Cavs &/or Spurs closed all 3 to 10 day old Parlays, CB won on a phamtom punch, Stevie defended on a U.Dec. Duddy won easily, in likewise fashion.


bigeiii