CFL week 8 Indigo lines

Hamilton gets four divisional opponents, mostly at home as well as two byes over the next 6 weeks....they could be 7-2 at the end of it all.

We went 1-1 for the week, and are now 23-11 ATS in the CFL for the season.

From now on past week 7 look for home dogs to step up, as away dogs have been in the beginning of the season.  Ottawa still looks unbackable to everyone except Spottie, maybe.

Montreal still has a team of receivers with hands of stone....Vernon looks great scrambling around, but all too often he'll make a bad decision while under pressure, or alternatively the times he does make a good decision his receivers are dropping touchdown passes.

1)  Ottawa +10 Hamilton 46

2)  Toronto  -5  Montreal 49

3). Lions     +3' Sasquatches 46

41-23 for the season(s) of CFL, NCAA FB and NFL.

I will no longer post NCAA picks as I am below the Mendoza line with them....there are many fine college handicappers on covers, Spottie among them.

I went 4-1 in the Superbook contest last week, losing by the hook in the Bengals/Bears game, but getting a very lucky push at +3 with them in my personal plays.....I am 8-2 for the season in the contest.....all I have to do is repeat that for the next 16 weeks and I'll be in the money......ja easy, right?

Of the  five  winners I had in the NFL, four of them were very fortuitous results......Cowboys, Titans, Giants and Ravens were all games that could have gone either way, so I am very fortunate that they all came through for me....I don't take that for granted for a second.

Early leans NFL for week 3....

Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, Washington Football Team

Correction, my NFL picks are 10-1-1 season-to-date and my overall record is 42-23-1

Miami Dolphins don't qualify here because of the week>3 but I think the Raiders start an exception can be made.

52-22, 70.3% ATS

p:points <4 and p:H and D and PRSW>4 and week>3 and line<9

I am fairly certain I could modify the query to get the results I need. 

Thanks Spottie.

The Chargers and the Bucs are  dogs that will be favored their next two games.

The Giants and Broncos are  favorites that will be a dogs their next two games.

In the CFL,

Montreal will be a dog that will be favored their next two (they play Ottawa back to back)

If Saskatchewan is somehow a dog to the Lions they will be a dog that is favored their next two games.

NFL 

Plays:

1)  Falcons +3', -115....the calculated line for the Falcons is +20,...the Falcons' average margin/game is -24.5 and the Giants' is -7.5/game....the difference is 17 points, and we give 3 points to the Giants for home field.  When the actual line is less than the calculated line in the weeks 2-6 we have a play. 

2)  Dolphins +5'.........the calculated line for the Dolphins is +27'....the average margin per game of the two teams is Miami -17 and the Raiders +7.5....which gives us a calculated line of 24.5 and we give Vegas 3 points for home field.  When the actual line is less than the calculated line we have a play.

Plays:

3)  Washington Football Team +8'......Buffalo falls into an angle that is 4-25 ATS, that goes against home favorites in the first four weeks of the season that won 13 or more regular season games their prior season who are playing a team that made the playoffs last season. 

WFT also qualifies under my calculated line angle that works for the first 6 weeks of the season.  Buffalo's scoring margin so far after two games is +28, which equates to 14 points/game, while WFT's is -3, -1.5/game.  That when we subtract WFT's from Buffalo's we a calculated line of 15.5 points a game difference, and we give Buffalo 3 points for home field.....giving us a calculated line of Washington +18.5.  Since the Vegas line is less than our calculated line, Washington is the indicated play.

This thread is going to date me.....my favorite team as a youth was the Green Bay Packers with Vince Lombardi who had Paul Hornung and Bart Starr and company.  After that I gravitated to the Vikings in 1968 when Bud Grant migrated south from Canada to lead the Vikings to four NFC championships, only to be crushed in four different Super Bowls.

I loved the Bulls with Michael Jordan and company, and then loved watching Steve Nash's Suns, who could never quite put it all together enough to win a championship.  The Suns were the funnest basketball team that I have ever had the pleasure to watch.

However, my most favorite team of all-time and my most favorite all-time player is in existence now.  That guy is........

Lamar Freaking Jackson.

Words really don't describe Jackson, and even the word quarterback isn't really a good word descripton of who he is, or what he does.  Until about four years ago, running quarterbacks like Michael Vick and Bobby Douglas ran when everything broke down, and they ran to keep a play alive.  No offense in the NFL, probably ever, had its design with the qb to be the main  runner of the ball, because quarterbacks get hurt, right?  Teams would look at the Robert Griffith experiment that worked well for one year for Washington and say, "See, this is what happens when the quarterback runs the ball", as Griffith blew out his knee, never to be the same again."

Everyone still says that, except  Baltimore, who says,

"betcha' can't stop our guy"

and hardly anyone has, and as Colinsworth said last night, half the time the biggest and baddest defensive linemen are not even being blocked......LOL!

It is like when you were a kid and there was one guy at age 15 that lived a a couple of blocks away who had mustache and muscles, and you had the "kill the guy with the ball" game and no one could EVER tackle that guy...that is Lamar Jackson.

Now, will the Ravens win a championship with him?  IDK, but I am tuning in for as long as he is still there to find out.

Even if you don't share my admiration for Lamar Jackson, if you are not betting Baltimore frequently, you are missing out on money making opportunities.

Was there any doubt last night that Baltimore was gonna outrush Kansas City?  Andy Reid, as I have said before, has the best record in NFL history against the spread on the road.....he has an all-time great future hall-of-famer in Mahomes running his show.  They could not take down Lamar Jackson last night.

Here are the covering rate stats on teams in the NFL that outrush their opponent.

As a:

Home favorite....1960-1094 ATS (+4.6) 64.2%

Home dog..........738-293 ATS (+6.5) 71.6%

Away favorite.....919-510 ATS (+4.8) 64.8%

Away dog.........1469-493 ATS (+5.5) 74.9%

Covering rate of a team that rushes the ball for greater than 150 yards in the NFL in any particular game.......74.6%

Query text in killersports.com

rushing yards>150

team=Dolphins and dpa>=14 and week<4

You forgot the "p" Hoody, which tells us a result for a team's most previous game.  Your query is showing a result when Miami  allows greater than 14 points more than expected in that game.  If you want a result for this week's game based on last week's game results you must remember the  p:

Here is the query text language I am using for my calculated line versus actual line that I am beating you guys to death with.

AD and oA(margin)-tA(margin)+3-line>0 and week<7

It hits 55.8% of the time, but much, much better over the last 6 years.  It moves to 60% if we require that either out play ON away dog will be a favorite next game AND/OR that their opponent will be an underdog.

AD and oA(margin)-tA(margin)+3-line>0 and week<7 and (n:F or on:D)

But then Hoody shows up in my thread as he does periodically and has given me food for thought.....

"What if I test out teams that have done poorly their first two games, either offensively or defensively?"

dpa = delta expected points allowed

dps = delta expected points scored

To give an  example, if the line and total for team A in a game is +6, 44, the expected score in that game for team A is team A 19-25.  If the actual score is team A 14-40, that means that the dps (delta points scored) for that game was -5, and the dpa (delta points allowed) was +15.  To make sure you are understanding this,..here is the calculations for Green Bay in their game 1 results....the line was GB-3' and the total was 49', so the expected score was Green Bay 26.5-23.  They scored 3 points, so their dps for that game  was -23.5 and they allowed 38 points so their dpa was +15....Obviously it is likely that they show up this coming week as an indicated play.  However I am not having anything to do with Mister Rogers' neighborhood this season, unless it is to fade them.

How do teams do in week three as away dogs, when in the past two games their delta points scored combined in the last wo games was worse than -7?

Here is the text for it.....tS(W, N=2)<-7 and AD....this gives us 71-54 ATS, 56.8%, and if we stipulate that our play ON team must be a favorite their next game or their opponent must be a dog, this moves to 54-30 ATS, 64.3%....so now we're cooking.  If we plug in my calculated line versus actual line thingy.....

oA(margin)-tA(margin)+3-line>0 and week=3 and (n:F or on:D) and tS(dps, N=2)<-7

38-20 ATS, 65.5%..........Bears, Dolphins (note...the Chargers qualify under the 54-30 ATS part of this, but the calculated line versus the actual line component they do not fit into.)

The result for a team whose defense has, in the last two games, performed at least 7 points worse than expected, along with our other two good parameters is this:

oA(margin)-tA(margin)+3-line>0 and week=3 and (n:F or on:D) and tS(dpa, N=2)>7

36-15 ATS.......Falcons

Play:

4)  Bears +7', -115

_____________________

1)  Falcons +3' -115

2)  Dolphins +5'

3)  WFT +8'

leans Chargers, Ravens

Thanks Indigo.  I think youre keeping this going strong 

A)  Home favorites off an away loss of less than 5 points have been 211-273 ATS, 43.5%

B)  If the game number is less than 5, this has been 42-75 ATS, 35.9%

C)  If the game previous to their close away loss our team won, 11-35 ATS, 23.9%

D)  If this is week 3 and the sequence was: 1) win  2) close away loss  3)   now home favorite..........4-17 ATS.

VERSUS Chiefs

Plays:

5)  Chargers +6'

_____________________

4)  Falcons +3', -115

3)  Bears +7', -115

2)  WFT +8'

1)  Dolphins +5'

Be leery of one-team queries until the KS people can fix it (I have notified them).

For example:  season = 2021 and team = Browns

The query returns CLV as 1-2 ATS with 14 pushes.  The SU record is 0-1 with 16 pushes.  The average SU margin is -0.24 which is the KC game's -4 margin divided by 17.  Proceed with caution.

The superbook contest top 5 most popular picks for the past week.

1)  Pittsburgh -5'.....loser

2)  Philadelphia +3....loser

3)  Kansas City -3'....loser

4)  Los Angeles Rams -3'....loser

5)  Arizona -3' .......loser 

top 5 picks now are 2-8 for the season.....and I will harp on it again, you can make money fading the experts or the consensus.

My picks this week with the KOC consensus so far.

1)  Chargers +6', 39%

2)  Falcons +3', 47%

3)  WFT +8' 39%

4)  Dolphins +5', 28%

5)  Bears +7' 45%

Another fxcked up 2021 query:

season = 2021 and H

ATS:  18-30-224

The 2021 results should be taken with a truckload of salt.

Lots of ties and overtimes...good for overs.....LOL

Add Packers to the teams that qualify for the calculated line versus real line angle that is 122-70 ATS since 2015.

Packers margin after two games this season this season is -17 or -8.5 per game.  The 49ers are +14 or +7 per game.  

Add them together and San Fran has a 15.5 points per game advantage and we then give 3 points to the 49ers for home field to get Packers +18.5

Because the Vegas line of +3.5 is less than the calculated line this is a play on the Packers.

If our away dog will be a favorite or their opponent will be a dog this moves 84-46 ATS, 64.6%, and in addition it is 60-28 ATS if our away dog is also less than or equal to +6.

oA(margin)-tA(margin)+3-line>0 and AD and game number<=6 and season>2014 and (n:F or on:D) and line<=6

We are looking for at least a 3 point differential between calculated and Vegas line.

Qualifying teams for week 3......Packers, Falcons, Bears, WFT, Dolphins, Jets

Doubtful I will bet on the Packers this week or  season...they are due for a regression after consecutive 13 win seasons, and I am turned off by what happened in their off-season.

Here is a pretty good angle I just discovered in the NFL.

We look for a home favorite whose last week line is more than 5 points greater than this week's before week 5.....225-283 ATS, 44.3%

VERSUS Vegas, PIttsburgh, Tennessee, NY Giants, Buffalo, Dallas

If our home favorite will either be an underdog next game or their this week's opponent will be an favorite this moves to 134-210 ATS, 39%

VERSUS Giants, Steelers, Raiders, Bills

Plus, If their opponent has 0 wins on the season in week 3....19-33 ATS, 36.5%

VERSUS Giants

    @ Indigo

Lets say this that last week the bills game was Bills -3 and total was 47 meaning the bills game should be Bills 25 Dolphins 22

Should that be like this then , Since the score was 35-0

team=Bills and p:dpa<=14 or p:dpa>=14 (I use 14 as my bounce back or the other way dps)

Now if you leave the   p    out don't you get all the games that end that way?

Now in your query you have (dpa, N=2) what does the N stand for ,the other part of my ? is why don't you use (ats margin) instead of tA(margin) , the +3 i take it is for the home team.

Also is that site working for you , I can only get some stuff on killer.

In week 3, away dogs with less than two wins, that have less than or equal  wins than their present opponent have been 133-104 ATS, 56.1%........

Falcons, Bengals, Eagles, Saints, Dolphins, Bears, Chargers, Colts, Saints, Jets, Packers

If their present opponent is off a loss this moves to 66-33 ATS

Bengals, Falcons, Chargers

If their opponent is off an away loss......56-22 ATS

Falcons, Chargers

 If the line for our away dogs is less than or equal to +6.....79-44 ATS

If our away dog of <=6 will either be favorites or their opponent will be underdogs....66-34, 66%

Falcons, Bengals, Saints, Dolphins, Packers

1)  Why would you restrict the query to one team only?...why don't you use a league-wide query where you will get 30x the results?  I would eliminate "team=Bills"

2)  p:dpa<=14 or p:dpa>=14......if you want to find out a situation where there is a big divergence of results you would use p:dpa<=-14  which tells you how a team does if they allowed 14 points less than expected in their previous gamei, so you use the minus sign ahead of 14.  In a separate query you would use p:dpa>14 to find out how teams did their next game when they allowed 14 points more than expected in their previous game.  You would NOT use them in the same query, so you would eliminate "or" and test one parameter at a time. If you wanted to find out how a team does when they allowed 14 points more combined  than expected in their last two games you would use tS(dpa, N=2)>14.  If you wanted to query how a team did that allowed an average of 14 points more than expected in their last two games, you would use tA(dpa, N=2)>14.

3) As I have mentioned you  wouldn't use "or" in that query, however when you do use or, you need to put the two possibilities in brackets as I do with (n:F or on:D)

4)  The p thingy I have explained a few times to you,...if you don't use it, it gives you the game in question....for example if I use the query.....points=0.....that means the team scored zero points that game, and of course there will be zero wins and about 200 losses in the results for that query.  If, however you use p:points=0 you are asking how a team does after they were shut out their previous game.