N means how many games prior you are testing for,,, so for example if I want to see how a team does that has won their past three road games this is the query text tS(W@A, N=3)=3
If I want to query how a team does that won two out of their past three road games, this is the text
tS(W@A, N=3)=2
Ok tell me if I did this right I put in. (I want to look at the Bills after there 35-0 win)
p:dpa<-14 and team and n:HF
Are the Bills 3-5 and only 37.5% and the line -3.6 and when they say line is that the avg line?
I don't think I get everything like I use to ,I have to use Killer the other one doesn't work for me any more.
Thanks again ,here's a beer I don't drink
Ok tell me if I did this right I put in. (I want to look at the Bills after there 35-0 win)
p:dpa<-14 and team and n:HF
Are the Bills 3-5 and only 37.5% and the line -3.6 and when they say line is that the avg line?
Yeah, that is correct.
Teams in general have done well as home favorites after allowing 14 points less than expected their last game.
p:dpa<-14 and HF and n:F
On the other hand teams that scored 14 points less than expected while losing as home dogs and now as away dogs have only been 6-12 ATS and 0-17-1 straight up.....Dolphins
p:dps<-14 and p:HDL and AD
Adding:
6) Bengals +4
I was alerted to a very positive 63-26 ATS angle (thanks Spot!) that since 2010 plays ON a team that is a 6 points or less divisional underdog before week 6 that won 2 or less divisional games the previous season.
5) WFT +8'
4) Falcons +3', -115
3) Bears +7', -115
2) Dolphins +5'
1) Chargers +6'
The Westgate is having 3, 6 game mini contests (first place is 100,000 dollars), and 6, 3 game mini contests (first place 75,000 dollars).
I would guess I'll have to go 5-0 this week to cash in the first 3 game contest.
I am in the top 60 out of 1200+ entrants....in a normal sample there is a 1 out of 1024 chance of hitting 10 out 10 picks (1 in 2 to the 10th power), so one would expect 1-2 players would be perfect after 10 picks out of 1200 contestants. No one is,...but there are two that have hit 9 with no losses and one draw.
Going 9-1-0?....there are 12.
There are 8 contestants at 8-1-1, and there are 37 others at 8-2-0 with me.
I have certainly been fortunate this season so far betting-wise, but the week one loss with NE having the ball 1st and 10 on Miami's 11 yardline with 3 minutes left where they fumbled it away really hurt my chances of cashing the first 3 week contest.
I'll need to hit 5 out of 5 this weekend.....there is a one out of 32 chance of hitting 5 out of 5 (1 out of 2 to the 5th power), and with 50+ players even or ahead of me, odds are that one or two others will hit 5 out of 5 as well.....so even that might not get me in the top five.
some preseason betting information......
On the Giants: More bets have been placed on the New York Giants to win the Super Bowl than have been placed on any other team at The Borgata in Atlantic City, New Jersey. "By a big margin, too, 2-1," Borgata sportsbook director Tom Gable said. Gable said given The Borgata's location, they always see plenty of action the Giants, Jets and Eagles. But the money on the Giants this year has been atypical.
"The amount of wagers on the Giants to win the Super Bowl we've taken is obscene," Gable said, adding that they didn't take a bet on the under on the Giants' season-win total of 7.5 until last week. "Everybody's hammering the over on that."
On the Patriots: "I've been surprised by how many people are in a rush to back (the Patriots) this year. They're our biggest liability in the Super Bowl futures book." - John Murray, SuperBook
On the Raiders: "We have seen Raiders money in their season wins, in their Super Bowl odds, to win the division, some money on Derek Carr to win MVP. We've seen it for almost every which way, but they're not betting (Jon) Gruden for coach of the year, interestingly. We've got what I consider to be pretty significant action, because when I look at this Raiders team on paper, I don't think they're very good." - Bennett, Circa Sports
On the Eagles: "We just took some money on the Eagles to have the most wins in the NFL at some pretty long odds. Most people are betting them under on their season wins and are not expecting much from them. In fact, we've been taking some money on them to have the most regular-season losses, which is interesting as far what people think is possible with this team. The range of outcomes is pretty big." -Chris Bennett, Circa Sports
On Washington: "The Washington Football Team is very popular. We have a big liability on Washington for the Super Bowl, the NFC and the NFC East." - John Murray, SuperBook
On the Browns: "The real public team is the Browns. The public loves the Browns." - Chris Bennett, Circa Sports
On the Rams: "The Rams are the other team that we're kind of fading in the Super Bowl pool. That one makes more sense, because I think there was a consensus among a lot of people that all the Rams needed to do was upgrade the quarterback position." - John Murray, SuperBook
NFL week 3 home favorites with a regular season wins line of less than 8.5........11-24 ATS
VERSUS Raiders, Giants
NFL week 3 home favorites of less than or equal to -6 that have the greater regular season win line than their present opponent....7-15 ATS
VERSUS 49ers, Patriots, Cowboys
NFL week 3 Home favorites who are playing a team with a RSWL of >9.....6-11 ATS.
VERSUS.......Raiders, Chiefs, 49ers, Rams
From my preseason writeup.....
Teams that went 5-1 or 6-0 straight up in divisional games the season prior were the Saints, Bills, Titans and Packers.
How do those teams perform in September?
As dogs they've been 56-34 ATS, 62.2%, and if we subtract their 13-13 ATS mark as dogs in week one this moves to 43-21 ATS. They have been 32-16 ATS out of division as dogs and 11-5 ATS in division.
ON Packers, Saints
More from my previous writeup.....
The best part of this seems to be to take a team that won 0, 1 or 2 divisional games in September that are away dogs of less than 6 points.
85-42 ATS
Texans, Eagles, Cowboys, Cardinals, Bears, Panthers, Lions, Jaguars, Falcons, Broncos, Bengals, Jets .............as away dogs of <6 in September
Teams that won <3 games in division previous season and are home favorites of less than 6 have been 46-81 ATS in September in the first three weeks of the season
Texans, Eagles, Cowboys, Cardinals, Bears, Panthers, Lions, Jaguars, Falcons, Broncos, Bengals, Jets
Vegas' lines on the left, Indigo's on the right
1) Ottawa +7' 43' +10 46
2) Toronto -2' 48' -5 49
3) Lions +1' 47' +3' 46
KOC consensus
Hamilton 61%
Toronto 69%
Lions 57%
6 CFL writers picks......combined record 72-90!!!!....
.
100% on Hamilton
100% on Alouettes
100% on Lions
We'll do calculated lines on these three games....average points scored per team is 20.8 this season or 41.6 combined....we'll use that to make our calculations.
Sask average score.....22.2-19.8...+2.4 average margin per game.....total margin +0.4 over the average total
BC average score.......26-17.7......+8.3 average margin per game.....+2.1 over the average total
BC line 8.3-2.4 =5.9 and add three points for home team
Calculated line BC -8.9, total 44.1
Montreal 26.2-24.8.....+1.4...........total average +9.2 over the average total for the CFL this season
Toronto 18.7-23.5.......-4.8...........+.4 over average total
Calculated line Toronto +3.2 total 51.2
Hamilton 18.7-18.7..average margin 0............total margin -4.2
Ottawa 16-31.......average margin -15..........total margin +5.2
Calculated line.....Ottawa +12, total 42.6
Remember we look at fading the calculated line if there is a divergence of more than 3 points...which would have us looking at........
Ottawa, Toronto and Saskatchewan
and OVER Ottawa
Plays:
1) Toronto -2'
2) Sasquatches -1'
If you're betting these, your guess is as good as mine where these lines will be come Friday. I want to have Toronto at less than 3, and the Riders as well.
I like the Riders and the Lions this year, and the Lions have surprised me...I think they are below upper echelon, and they are very young, so this will be a good test for them with Riley being healthy, when he wasn't their last meeting. We're fading the writer's picks, covers consensus and calculated line by taking Saskatchewan, which lines things up nicely.
Toronto I just like this season and hopefully they have figured out who will be their defensive coordinator moving forward. Vernon Adams and the rest of that Als team are too schizoid for my taste and they should perhaps consult with a witch or shaman to see if they may get rid of their receivers' hands of stone. William Stanback is great, and if he gets it going it could be a long night for the Argos, but I don't see it happening.
Hoody, much of the value in your query is lost because BUF scored so many points vs. MIA.
p:dpa<-14 and n:HF and p:points > 30.5 and season < 2021
ATS: 32-33-6
I eliminated the current season until KS shows that they've gotten it right. This query does favor BUF and it has a comforting large sample size:
HF and -5.7 > line > -10.2 and n:line - on:line < -8.2 and season < 2021
ATS: 235-156-11 (+4.5, 60.1%). Adding "p:points > 30.5" increases the average margin and winning percentage.
Good luck this week.
@ Dogbite , it was the Dolphins I was really looking at but the game played was Buff-Mia ,what I want is what happens after the dolphins scored 14 or more less than they should have so I typed in team=Dolphins and p:dps<-14 and n:AD (and this time it worked ,have the time I get nothing) and I got 4-6 (40%), the total was 48 in that game and the line Buff -3.5 meaning Mia should have scored at least 20+ pt's. Indigo did I do that right , I put the (p) in there (LOL) , I use 14 pt's either way as a bounce game for 2 games or I should say I look at it meaning Mia should bounce back this week if not then next week if not then , then no play on the next. Buff only scored about 10 pt's more then expected but they allowed 14 pt's less than expected and so on that one I typed in whats in #29 and get 3-5 , as Indigo say's I always forget the (p) when I put things in. But now half the stuff doesn't work.
The most important thing that KS queries no longer generate is the current games. It's easy to manually check last week's games for something simple like "p:points > 30.5," but efficiency computations like "p:points/p:passes" would be a pain to calculate for 16 games, let alone it for a preceding week or two.
For all the platitudes and promises of how great this site will be....displaying the relevant games this week should be agenda number 2, and giving accurate results should be agenda number 1.
The lines have changed in some cases from earlier in the week, which is a fact of life if you are a new bettor, the smart money will often be bet early and recreational bettors will bet late, though of course there are exceptions to that......my personal plays and the line I got them at are on the left and the Westgate Contest plays and line I got for the contest is on the right (the contest requires 5 side picks exactly each week).....this week we did a good job of line shopping by playing them early.
This season has reverted back to more normal than the covid season of last year. Historical data is showing well (so far).
* denotes a contest play
1) *Bengals +4.................+3
2) *WFT +8'.....................+7'
3) *Falcons +3' -115.........+3
4) *Dolphins +5'...............+4
5) *Chargers +6'..............+6'
6) Bears +7', -115
NFL....I will ignore the Houston/Carolina game as historical data is usually not predictive of Thursday night games.
1) Winless game 3, 4 or 5 non-divisional home dogs that lost their last game at home have been 14-6 ATS.....Jaguars
2) Winless game 3 non-divisional home dogs that have allowed an average of >27 points per game have been 11-7 ATS.....Vikings, Jaguars, Lions
a) If their opponent has one win 8-3 ATS, 6-5 straight up.....Vikings, Lions
b) If their opponent has two wins 1-3 ATS..........................Jaguars
3). Winless non-divisional game 3 home dogs that lost both games against the spread.....12-8 ATS Jaguars
4) Week 3 away non-divisional favorites that have won one game have been only 4-8 ATS if their regular season win line was greater than 8....Seahawks, Ravens
5) Week 3 away non-divisional favorites that have won one game that have a negative average scoring margin have been 9-6 ATS....Ravens
6) Week 3 away non-divisional favorites that have won one game that have a positive average scoring margin have been 11-15 ATS, 17-9 O/U..Seahawks
7) A game 3 away non-divisional favorite that has won both their previous games has been 6-11 ATS if they won game 1 on the road and game 2 at home, going 3-14 O/U.
1) Week 3 away dogs and six or less points with <=wins than their present opponent....86-50 ATS
a) 28-19 ATS in divisional games.....Bengals, Colts, Eagles
b) 58-31 ATS in non-divisional games.....Falcons, Dolphins, Packers, Saints
2) Winless week 3 away dogs:
a) of <=+6.......33-18 ATS.......Colts, 10-6 ATS in divisional games
b) of >6 points......26-32 ATS,......15-17 ATS, 11-20 O/U in non-divisional games,....Jets
Week 3 home favorites that will be underdogs their next two games......21-43 ATS......VERSUS Broncos, NY Giants
Week 3 away dogs that will be favorites their next two games..............51-30 ATS....ON Chargers, WFT
Week 3 away dogs that will be favorites their next game and their opponent will be an underdog 44-28 ATS ................. ...................Saints, Dolphins, Bengals
1) Week 3 away dogs of <+9 that played their first two games at home:
A) playing a divisional rival.....12-5-2 ATS (+2.8)......Colts
B) playing a non-divisional game....22-9 ATS (+4.8)...Bengals, WFT
__________________________________________________________________________
2) Week 3 away dogs of <+9 that have already played one away game and won that game:
A) in a non-divisional game.....25-26 ATS......Dolphins, Chargers
B) in a divisional game.........11-14 ATS........Eagles
week=3 and AD and line<9 and tS(W@A, N=1)=1
_______________________________________________________________________
3) Week 3 away dogs of <+9 that have already played in one away game and lost that game:
A) in a non-divisional game....74-50 ATS.....Packers, Falcons, Saints, Bears
B) If that line is 7 or less....66-41 ATS, and if that team will either be favored or their opponent will be a dog....56-31 ATS.
1) If that team has less wins than their opponent....23-19 ATS....Packers
2) If that team has equal wins to their opponent......37-14 ATS....Falcons, Saints, Bears
a) if our equal wins team has a calculated line higher than the actual line....20-6 ATS (+4.9) , 13-9 straight up.....Falcons, Bears, Saints
week=3 and AD and line<=7 and tS(W@A, N=1)=0 and division!=o:division and t:wins=o:wins
Adding:
7) Saints +3
___________________________
6) Falcons +3', -115
5) Bears +7', -115
4) Bengals +4
3) Dolphins +4'
2) WFT +8'
1) Chargers +6'
Saints qualify as an away dog that won 13 or more games the previous season.....those teams have covered 67% of their games in September regardless of whether they are playing in division or out, 43-21 ATS.
Out of these picks data is revealing that the Chargers and the Dolphins are the least strong of the 7 plays. However, in my time of being a bettor, if I had ranked my plays according to the confidence level of each play from strongest to weakest, there would be no discernable difference in the covering percentage between the strongest plays and the weakest. KC does have a very negative angle going against them that is separate to all the historical content we've been running on away dogs.
The Chiefs could lose the division this year, as the other teams in division are all capable of playing with them this season. I could see them ending up with a below 500 spread record and winning 10 or 11 games.
However, keep in mind that Andy Reid is 48-21 ATS, 64% on the road in his career in divisional games going back to his days as an Eagles head coach, which no other coach in history would touch (except possibly George Siefert of the 49ers when they were winning Super Bowls, I haven't checked his career stats).
You would have to think long and hard about playing against the Chiefs in a divisional road game. At home in division on the other hand he is 33-38 ATS.
Both Seattle and Arizona are away favorites that will be underdogs their next game....those teams have been 66-96 ATS before week 5 and 12-22 ATS in week 3.
Seattle is -1.5 versus the Vikings and their lookahead line next week at the Rams is +6.
Arizona is -7 versus the Jaguars and their lookahead line next week at the 49ers is +3.5.
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