Indigo CFL week 4

9-11 STD.

BC obviously has the most likely MOP candidate in Nathan Rourke, the next superstar of the CFL.  His coaching staff is doing a great job for him, the offensive line that couldn't keep Mike Reilly upright in his return to BC has been stellar, and he has a lot of weapons at his disposal.  BC's secondary is also great.......they have the look of a dominant team....and Toronto isn't a bad team, and I may just take them next week at home versus the Bombers.

Edmonton slowly looks like they may cover some games for us this season.  Their run defense will be a mess for most of the season, but they have a good receiver corps and if Nick Arbuckle can keep his turnovers down, they'll cover more games than Hamilton will this season.  I doubt the Elks win many games, but they'll give maximum effort and get the money once in awhile.

Hamilton looks like they'll be in for a long, long season.  No offensive playmakers, and it's hard to tell if their o-line is bad, or badly injured.  The dreaded runners-up curse looks likely to afflict them and I doubt they'll win more than 8 games this season.  Ottawa and Montreal are actually the two best teams in the East, so as often happens in the CFL, the top becomes the bottom and vice versa.  Montreal will have to figure out who their number one guy is at qb....they are paying Adams superstar money, and he is far from that......that shouldn't figure into who plays or who gets cut, but I expect it might.  Harris is who should be playing.

Indigo week 4

1)  Ottawa           +4  BC           52

2)  Saskatchewan -6  Montreal   45

3)  Toronto          +3 Winnipeg   45

4)  Hamilton         -6  Edmonton 46

Leans.........Edmonton UNDER, Toronto UNDER, BC OVER, Argos at +3 or higher.  I do think the linesmaker will probably make Toronto more like a 5 or 6 point home dog and possibly Ottawa as well.

Angles......

1)  Unbeaten away non-division favorites before week 8 have been 6-18 ATS (-5.7), 7-16 straight up (-1.8) and 12-12 o/u....Bombers, Lions

2)  Away dogs with an average scoring margin of -7 points/game or worse have been 7-1-1 ATS in week four, 2-7 o/u......Elks

3)  Away dogs before week 8 when both teams are off losses 32-21-1 (+1.7), 22-32 straight up (-4.4).....Elks

4)  Away dogs when they are off two straight losses before week 8,....35-21 ATS (+1.3), 19-39 ATS (-5.6).....Elks

Below are the average scoring margins for each team...

Calgary 31-26.7...............+4.3/game

Winnipeg 21.3-13.7........... +8/game

BC 51.5-9......................+42.5/game

Saskatchewan 23-22.........+1/game

Edmonton 18-38.3...........-20.3/game

Toronto 11.5-31.5............-20/game

Montreal 27.7-21............+6.7/game

Ottawa 14.5-19...............-4.5/game

Hamilton 18.3-29.7..........-11.4/game

Matching these teams up and giving 3 points to the home team we can come up with a line.....for example....Hamilton is -11.4 and their opponent next game is Edmonton at -20.3/game....the difference between the two teams Hamilton +8.9 and we add 3 points because Hamilton is at home.

We get a hypothetical line of Hamilton -11.9, based on the average margin between the two teams

Other calculated lines...

2)  Toronto +25

3)  Ottawa +44

4)  Saskatchewan +2.7

Obviously, this is not an accurate assessment of the relevant strength of the two teams.  However it is useful to use in a query to see if our calculated average margin between the two teams varies a lot from the Vegas line.

The query text for this is this.....

oA(margin)-tA(margin)-line>0

How do those teams do with the calculated disadvantage?

Those teams that are dogs in this situation have been 19-8 ATS in week 4, which will encompass the Argos, Redblacks and possibly the Elks as long as they are dogs of less than 12 points this week.  Weeks 2 and 4 in the CFL seem to be the only weeks where this has been useful.

Favorites in this scenario have only been 13-12 ATS in week four....which fits the Riders this week.

So, in essence this is a regression calculation...after week 4 this regression has not been predictive.

Something else that has worked in both the NFL and the CFL is to take teams that "should have" won according to my queries and if they do not at least get the cover is to two game chase them the following two ROAD games.  This week, Hamilton and Toronto both had good situations on them as away dogs and they both failed pretty miserably.....I will look to back them when they go back on the road and if they fail their first time I will double up on them in their next road game,....it is another type of regression.

I especially avoid those teams if they fail to cover and then are home favorites their next game.

I wasn't the only one to have a bad weekend.....CFL.ca staff member picks went 1-2 ATS with losses on the Riders and Stampeders and a win on the Bombers.

CFL futures odds to win Grey Cup after week 3.

a)  Bombers +225

b)  Stampeders +395

c)  Riders +515

d)  Lions +540

e)  Argos +740

f)  Alouettes +900

g)  Tiger Cats +1000

h)  Redblacks +1200

i)  Elks +2400

Now, we've seen Eastern conference teams with the vastly inferior record win the Grey Cup....quite often a less than average team wins the Grey Cup.  Instantly, the three teams that have no chance are the Elks, Tiger-Cats and Argos.  The West will be a four horse race, and as I mentioned earlier, the only two teams that can be title contenders in the East will be the Redblacks or the Alouettes.  When one backs a big underdog, you can hedge, sometimes more than once if need-be to lock in a profit.

I would only consider betting the Redblacks, Alouettes and/or the Lions.  I think the Lions are gonna continue to blitzkrieg their opponents all year long. 

I am considering making a couple of plays on the Lions and the Alouettes.  If/when the Alouettes get Stanbeck back, and they keep Harris as the qb, no team is gonna stop their offense.  Als sitting at 1-2 after their kicker blew a chip shot to win the past week...they still have very nice looking odds.

After 3 weeks, western teams are 7-1 ATS against overrated eastern teams. 

Once again the eye test tells me the east look like garbage.

This is going pretty much how it has gone for the last 15 years....the West dominates early, everyone says the East sucks, the linesmaker adjusts the lines as they always do, regression happens, and there is no advantage after the first four weeks of the CFL season.

East non-divisional games week<5 

on road......37-42 ATS (-1), 27-52 straight up (-4.1)

at home....26-41 ATS (-1.94), 31-35 straight up (0.37)

East non-divisional games week>4

on road.....100-93 ATS (+0.13), 75-120 straight up (-4.13)

at home....94-111 ATS (-0.85), 102-105 straight up (+0.60)

Notice the difference in the Eastern Division's record between early in the season and then beyond....the record is very similar and the average scoring margin is within a half a point between the two comparisons....however the against-the-spread record  for the East is almost 50% after week four as the linemaker makes their adjustments.

This is no big deal....we as bettors need to be aware of this kind of thing and use it to our advantage.

Here's another angle,,,,,,,,,,,

Away non-divisional  dogs that have lost the last two games they've played on the road before week 5.....

55-31 ATS (+2.7), 39-47 straight up (-2.8), 32-55 o/u (-1.3)

Broken down by division.....

Western Division non-divisional away dogs having lost their last two away games......27-11-1 ATS (+3.3), 22-16 straight up (-1.7), 13-26 o/u (-1.55)......Elks

Eastern Division non-divisional away dogs having lost their last two away games.....28-20 ATS (+2.1), 17-31 straight up (-3.61), 19-29 o/u (-1.07).........Alouettes

week<5 and AD and tS(W@A, N=2)=0 and division!=o:division and division

Unbeaten non-divisional away favorites that played in at least two playoff games the season prior before week 8......

3-13 ATS (-5.3), 4-11-1 straight up (-1.2).....Bombers

tpS(playoffs)>1 and week<8 and AF and division!=o:division and t:losses=0

____________________________________________________________________________

Away favorites on Monday......7-3 ATS (+3.9), 8-2 straight up (+9.4)........Bombers

Remember BC first road game and OTT off bye

Burnham will be out WR1 or WR2 - depends how you look at it

I only saw the recap highlights of the BC Game, but man BC pass catchers were wide open on so many plays - Hard to tell if that was Scheme or  Tor Defense just bad. The good news is though O'Rouke put it on every receiver. Let see how he does OTR.

PS Montreal & Ottawa Defenses very impressive so far tops in NYPP allowed

GL this week 

Yes, it was like Toronto only had 9 guys out there playing defense.  

That Ottawa/BC game is the most intriguing game of the week.

Thanks for stopping b

Sportinteraction has lines out, which are almost always what everyone else starts out with, in comparison to the the ridiculous betregal lines that had no semblance to reality last season.

Indigo on the left, SI on right

1)  Ottawa           +4  BC           52               Ottawa  +4.5    46.5

2)  Saskatchewan -6  Montreal   45               Riders    -3.5    45.5

3)  Toronto          +3 Winnipeg   45              Arogs    +4.5    42.5

4)  Hamilton         -6  Edmonton 46             Hamilton -6.5    46.5

Early leans

Toronto....Argos beat the Bombers at home last season very early...the Bombers only bleimsh until two meaningless losses at the end of the season.

Toronto UNDER....Winnipeg has no "it factor" on offense this season.....unless Toronto's defense decides not to show up again this week, which if that were to occur would  mean the Argos finish with a below 500 season this year.

Ottawa OVER/BC.....Ottawa went toe to toe with the chmaps twice, Masol is making Hamilton look like they've made a huge mistake in getting rid of the wrong guy.....BC might go for 46 by themselves..

Montreal +........are my new favorite team this year, IF they make me money.

Edmonton/Hamilton UNDER......Hamilton is gonna have to win games by playing defense this season and this game is as good as any other this season to show where their bread is buttered.

Plays:

1)  BC/Ottawa OVER 47

2)  Edmonton/Hamilton UNDER 46'

3)  Edmonton +6'

4)  Toronto/Winnipeg UNDER 42'

I will more than likely be taking the Alouettes to make the Grey Cup after this week's games....wouldn't mind if they lose this weekend at a tough place to play in Regina...which will increase the odds, which I will then play on them.

Would first like to  see how Ottawa performs versus BC....would change my mind about taking the Als if the Redblacks beat the Lions this week....it'll be one of those two teams that make it to the GC.....Ottawa presently at +800, Argos at +300, Alouettes at +350 and Tiger Cats at +450....hard to imagine that the two worst performing quarterbacks in the league so far have their teams with the shortest odds in the East to make the final.  Those odds right now are too good to be true (compare them to the NFL win-the-division odds and you'll see what I mean) and I expect they will shorten considerably in the next few weeks.

I rule out a Western team crossing over and winning two games on two of  the East's home fields to make the Grey Cup as a West Division team rarely wins one game in the crossover, much less two.

BC on a short week and having to travel east to Ottawa. The Redblacks coming off a bye, having lost their last game at home against the Bombers.

Any thoughts on a side in this matchup? 

Here are some angles that relevant to this game.....

a)  Home dogs off a bye have been 11-6 ATS, 9-8 straight up

rest>11 and HD and week<11

b) Home dogs playing an unbeaten foe....28-14 ATS, 11-8 ATS after week 2. 

HD and o:losses=0 and week<11

c)  Non-divisional home dogs before week 5....24-12 ATS, 22-13 straight up

HD and week<5 and division!=o:division

d)  Winless home non-divisional dogs before week 11....17-6 ATS.....15-7 straight up

HD and week<11 and division!=o:division and t:wins=0

e)  Non-divisional Home dogs versus an opponent who won by more than 28 points last game.....2-8-1 ATS, 2-9 straight up.

HD and week<11 and division!=o:division and op:margin>28

f)  A dog versus an opponent that won their two prior games by greater than 28 points...4-1 ATS,,,,if that opponent won both by at least 17 points....12-6 ATS, 4-14 straight up

week<15 and op:margin>17 and opp:margin>17 and D

I think the Lions are going to kill the Redblacks, however there are too many angles saying the Lions will not get the money....I am passing on the game....oughta be an electric atmosphere in Hamilton!

Good fortune on whoever you decide on.

CFL power ratings are out.

Top 3

Winnipeg

BC

Calgary

Bottom 3

7)  Toronto

8)  Hamilton

9)  Edmonton

Tuesday KOC contest consensus

BC 75%   OVER 61%

Hamilton 73% OVER 51%

Saskatchewan 68% OVER 61%

Winnipeg 65% OVER 60%

Early big money has come in on the Redblacks bringing the line down to +3 at pinnacle.  Pinnacle is always the book to watch as it has the sharpest and biggest betting money in the world....all other sportsbooks follow pinnacle like a private to a general.  This may be a blatant attempt to create a middle opportunity at the crucial number of 3.  Bookmakers hate allowing players to try to catch a middle on either side of 3 since it is the most common final margin in football, so it's doubtful that with the limited take on CFL games that a bookmaker would allow that to happen.

Money also has come in on Hamilton and Winnipeg....I have bought out on my Edmonton play hoping the line will go to 7 or higher, and then I will get back in.

The OVER in the Bombers and the Lions games have started to shade higher, and the UNDER is being bet at Pinnacle in the Elks/Tiger Cats game.  Winnipeg has very limited capacity to score this season, unless they create turnovers as they did against Hamilton last week,...however the history of Monday games has been high scoring.

Well, I went ahead and played the Lions despite plenty of angles supporting the Redblacks.....we'll see if I am a genius or a chump soon enough.

1)  Lions/RBs OVER 47

2)  BC -3, -105 two units

3)  Elks/Tiger Cats UNDER 46'

4)  Elks +6'....cancelled bet  for now, but will get back in on them,....hoping for >=+7

5)  Bombers UNDER 42'

Thanks for all that information pertaining to the Lions-Redblacks game Indigo999. Always appreciated. 

I9 mentioned "limited take on CFL games."  Let me support what he said.

Heritage is a VERY cautious sportsbook.  IIRC, they were about a week later in posting the NFL RSWLs compared to the early, brave sportsbooks, and they are about a day or two later for regular CFL games.

Another thing I just found out:  Heritage lets bettors buy or sell up to 7.5 points on NFL games.  It's only 2 points for CFL games.

Thanks, that's interesting about Heritage.  I suppose books feel the need to be cautious, but if they looked at the pinnacle model and said, "You're a winner?....bring it on!", you'd be a much more profitable sportsbook, as it is volume, not betting hold percentage that determines the success of bookmaker's business.  Even the sharpest sportsbook is not going to have more than 10% of bettors that are winners.....rather than try to decipher who is going to win or lose as most sportsbooks do and then kick those predicted winners out or severely limit them....look at the most successful sportsbook and emulate them, which is Pinnacle. 

Now Draftkings and the major players in the USA market are doing the same thing that other losing business idea sportsbooks have done.  Throw money at new bettors, limit winners, try to decrease risk and increase hold percentage (or increase one's winning percentage). 

Think that is a good strategy for a sportsbook?....the business community knows what is successful and what isn't.....take a look at draftking's stock market chart for the past two years to see how well that model is working.  They are saying they will be profitable by the end of next year.....that is an impossible idea to me, when 96% of bettors are losers....they have 3400 employees, which seems very excessive.....they throw tons of marketing at the public, it doesn't seem to be working.  

Perhaps like Coca Cola, and MacDonalds, having a terrible product but selling it like crazy will work one day.....but if I get involved in Draft Kings as an investor, I would be shorting them, not thinking things are going to turn around.

Line in the Redblacks game keeps dropping.  The thing about elite quarterbacks, their road record is always stellar, as quarterbacks play a bigger part with the passing game in general wins on the road, whereas defense and the running game wins at home.

I again bought out and re-bought BC at -2.5, -105,....with the money I paid to buy out, it is the equivalent of -113, -2.5, which is the price pays to do business,....obviously not all bettors think alike, and you will be on the road side of line movements occasionally. The two early games I was right to lock my o/u plays in early as by game time I will have gotten the best line.

Here is what I have so far....

Plays....

1)  Lions -2.5, -113, two units

2)  Lions/Redblacks OVER 47

3)  Elks/Tiger Cats UNDER 46'

Cancelled UNDER Toronto for free as that game has moved up a point at pinnacle....will get back on that UNDER and Elks + closer to game time.

Query relevant to the Lions....

A week 3-14 non-divisional away favorite off a home win by more than 20 points...12-6 ATS (+7.0), 12-6 straight up (+11.2)....this moves to 9-3 ATS (+8.5), 9-3 straight up (+13.1) if we specify our team is a Western Division team....

AF and playoffs=0 and division!=o:division and 2<week<15 and p:HW and p:margin>20 and division=West

Lions

We have some line movement as depending on the sportsbook referenced, the total in the Lions/Redblacks game has moved either a point or a point and a half up, to 47.5/48....it may go higher still....I'm thinking we'll see 60 points scored in this game.

The total in the Elks/Tiger Cats game has been juiced to the UNDER and indications are that the Bombers/Argonauts game will move higher.  All books with the exception of bet365 has at least juiced the Tiger Cats' line that stands at -6.5 with one book offering -7.

It is looking likely that I will not make a play in the Monday game.....Monday night football in the NFL has never been that predictive for me, as those angles used in regular season Sunday day games, don't seem to hold water on Sunday night/Monday night games.  

In the CFL, Thursday and Friday games seem to perform more to according to plan that Saturday/Sunday/Monday games.

Quite a few years ago, a risk management person at Pinnaclesports was interviewed, and was asked what was a defining characteristic of a winning bettor...his answer was surprising to me at the time....he said that if bettors got the best of the line that those at pinnacle knew that the person/group could well be a winner.

This week, we were pretty off in the assessment of the Lions' line, otherwise not too bad.  I am pretty interested as a fan to see how Nathan Rourke performs when he takes his show on the road....of course we're hoping his prolific start continues and Lions roar. 

After back to back curb stomps by B.C. I just went the square route and bet the Lions -2.5, Ottawa has put up the stats but not the scores let the chips fall where they will.

CFL teams that won 2 straight games by 26+ points are 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS.  AF's are just 1-3 SU and ATS, but 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in weeks 1-6.

Obviously the sample size is so small that it is certainly not reliable.  I am not eager to bet OTT especially at that shrinking line, but I'd be slightly queasy as a BC bettor while enjoying the smaller line and fading the public.  This is an almost certain pass for me.

Good luck, BC bettors.  My posts in this forum have been a virtual kiss of death, so that bodes well for you.