Indigo CFL week 4

Taking the Lions is super-square....I don't usually do that, but I am counting on the Dogbite super reverse hex to continue on for at least one more week.......

Hi indigo, are u able to run a query on the spot for bc and Ottawa...teams playing on saturday traveling across country on a Thursday game? SU and ats....i feel like there is a strong sentiment having seen what Montreal did to sask last week and most are playing the spot for ottawa more than anything else. And ottawa is coming off a bye ....they did hang tough vs. The defending grey cup champion defense as well...

LOL!

BC is down to -1.5 at Heritage.  I know public dogs don't have a great record in the NFL; I know nothing about CFL public dogs.

Good luck with BC; I will be rooting for them in that game.

Yes, they did pretty well against the champs....just had trouble punching the ball into the endzone....their pass defense stats aren't very good which is troubling for the Redblacks because Winnipeg has no big play playmakers in their receiver core this season, but we'll see what eventuates tomorrow.

I have run a couple of queries....away non-divisional favorites who played Saturday last week that are now playing on Thursday have been 2-0 winning their games 45-38 and 41-14....to encompass more games I took out the parameter of being a road favorite and just put in games on the road....those teams have been 4-9 ATS, and 3-10 straight up.

division!=o:division and A and day=Thursday and p:day=Saturday and rest<7

Non-divisional away  teams playing on 5 days or less rest have been 70-70, 36-32 ATS if that team if from the Western Division.

  a)  If our away favorite is playing with 5 or less days rest before week 5 these teams have been 0-4 ATS and 3-1 o/u. 

  b)  If our away favorite is playing a team off a bye before week 8, they've been 0-2 ATS, 0-2 straight up.

  c)  Home non-divisional dogs on Thursday before week 11 have been 12-6 ATS

@Indigo999

 Thanks for helping out indigo!

CFL.ca's staff picks (at least 5 out of 6 on one team).....season to date 1-2 ATS starting week 3....we consider fading their picks.

  a)  Tiger Cats -7

  b)  Bombers -5

Tre Ford listed as quarterback starter for Edmonton......I don't get what the deal with Nick Arbuckle is in the CFL.....he gets golden opportunities and teams can't wait to sit his ass down on the bench....this is the third time he was in line to being the franchise guy, and every time teams have found a way to sit him down.  He looks pretty decent in games except for when he was in an abysmal situation last year in Edmonton who ran a grade school offense.  I predict he's out of the league within two years. 

Tre Ford evidently is a guy who can produce with his legs...we'll see how it works out.....he's the second Canadan guy to be named starting quarterback this season, which is puzzling to me why this has not happened earlier in the CFL, the floodgates are now open....I predict it becomes the rule rather than the exception within the next five years.....long overdue.

Adding:

4)  Elks +7

__________________________

3)  Lions -2', -113, two units

2)  Lions OVER 47

1)  Elks UNDER 46.5

@Indigo999

 But your 9W & 11L .. Just saying who is the better fade to go with. LOL

Lions get the win and cover.....they are a threat to win it this season....Rourke turned it over three times and still looked awesome.

Books looking like they got seriously middled.....the linemakers in the CFL seem to have a very difficult time.

Plays:

1)  Lions -2' two units, winner, winner

2)  Lions OVER 47 winner

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3)  Elks +7

4)  Elks/Tiger Cats UNDER 46'

BC = Big Cash!

Congratulations.

Thanks Buddy.

Thanks for stopping by.

Come to think of it...the difference between winning and losing is sometimes very fine....as Steve Winwood would say...."It's a very fine line".

Louis Ward, one of the best kickers in CFL history misses an extra point earlier in the game to put our pick over the line.....grateful for the win.

And so it goes............we'll see what life has in store for us tomorrow.

Will do some thinking out loud for the rest of the weekend.

Looks like Demski is out for Winnipeg, and now all they have is Ellingson, who is a big target, but a possession type receiver,...he is never gonna break one out for a touchdown, so Winnipeg's yards per pass stats this year are going to be far inferior from past years.  The two highest stat predictors of both winning and covering a football spread is the superior yards per pass stats, and/or the amount of rushing yards, Winnipeg will not be anywhere as good as their two previous seasons.....at some point they are going to have difficulty covering lines....they oughta be fades and should be going UNDER the total in their games for the majority of the season.

But then, you have the Argos which should be in major regression mode off of last season where they won the division despite a negative points margin for their season....it is like the pythagorean system in baseball where if a team overachieves one season that they often will struggle the following season.  I saw nothing to inspire any confidence in their first two games, as they lucked out against the Alouettes and absolutely got crushed by the suddenly potent Lions.  Bethel-Thompson.....I don't get what coaches see in him....Toronto picked him over Arbuckle.....B-T seemingly make at least two throws every game right into a defender's hands, which is forgivable if you're Nathan Rourke and you are otherwise spectacular, but even in his finest moments I would not put MBT as a top 5 quarterback.

Normally I would love to fade the two time defending Cup champs with a limited amount of scoring ability this season, but MBT for the Argos may provide the Bombers with all the offense they need by a throwing a couple of  pick 6s on Monday.  I like the UNDER, as I don't think Toronto's defense is as bad as it looked in Vancouver last week, but don't know, can't pull the trigger on it.

I plan on backing the Redblacks in the near future, possibly as soon as next week as I like their team with their record a result of playing their first three games against the top two teams in the CFL this season.  And, they haven't been too far away....if they are getting north of 3 points in Regina next week I probably will be on them.  I make the line to be Riders -4  46.

Here is a query for you......a road team that outrushes their opponent has been 369-132-9 (+7.2, 73.7%) in the CFL....think about that for a second....if one could only know who was going to outrush their opponent while playing on the road, (the stats are similar for the NFL and NCAA football at 70.7% and 70.1% ATS respectively for road teams that outrush their opponent) you or me would be rich....it would be like finding Biff's Sports Almanac in Back to the Future.

That is why having a running quarterback is so valuable even if he is an average passer...sometime when you are bored take a look at Lamar Jackson's road covering record as a Baltimore Raven.  That is why if the 49ers this year go with Trey Lance they will be covering machines on the road.  

And of course, besides Nathan Rourke being a very good passer, he is also elusive in the pocket and runs the ball effectively.  He is going to have Tom Brady or better stats in covering the spread

On the other hand the better passing efficiency team on a yards per pass attempt basis covers 70.1% of the time, 74.2% covering rate on the road in the CFL. (69.4% in the NFL, 65.8% in the NCAA.)

The team with the lesser turnovers in that particular game covers 77.1% of the time in the CFL, 77.3% of the time in the NFL and 70.3% of the time in the NCAA.

HOWEVER, the team with the average turnover margin  advantage going into the game is slightly disadvantaged as far as covering the spread is concerned.....regression to the mean lives in betting on football, which means, what has happened before more often than not (we're talking 53-55% of the time) does not continue on the same way.

Example of the power of turnovers....

The Lions had three last night and the Redblacks had zero.  The Lions outyarded the Redblacks by over 250 yards, but the game landed almost exactly on the point spread number.

Teams with exactly 3 turnovers more than their opponent have covered only 15.6% of the time losing against the spread by an average of 12 points/game!!

turnovers-o:turnovers=3

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that one  turnover more than an opponent has is in a game is worth about -4 points to the line. 

Good to see you get out of your comfy zone and go by your numbers you had them by 4 pts I had them by 3.5, the line dropped and then take them, hard to leave those angles if you use them all the time.

Here's something that I find to be fascinating....

getting back to yesterday's game, the consensus line ended up being Lions -1.5.

Teams that out-yard their opponent by 220-280 yards in a game cover 85% of the time with an average covering margin of 13.71 points per game as was the case with the Lions.

On the other hand, as mentioned in an earlier thread, teams that get out-turnovered by 3 turnovers exactly cover only 15.6% of the time, with the average  covering margin being -12 points/per game as was the case of the Lions yesterday

If we take the covering margin of the two situations mentioned and subtract one from the other we get 13.71 minus 12.00 to get an expected covering margin of 1.71 points....THE LIONS COVERED BY 1.5 POINTS AS THE FINAL COVERING MARGIN.

The total has moved up a half point to 47 in the Elks game today,  going back quite a few years, the average amount of offense produced in a CFL regular season game is 750 yards with the average yards per point being 14.7....I would be surprised if over 700 yards of offense is produced today.  Tre Ford is making his first start, running quarterbacks typically produce UNDERs on the road...I feel that Edmonton will play it conservative on offense.  

Plays:

1)  Elks +7

2)  Elks UNDER 46'

_________________________

3)  Lions -2' double play W W

4)  Lions OVER 47 W

Nice job yest GL!

I9 said, "The total has moved up a half point to 47 in the Elks game today,  going back quite a few years, the average amount of offense produced in a CFL regular season game is 750 yards with the average yards per point being 14.7....I would be surprised if over 700 yards of offense is produced today.  Tre Ford is making his first start, running quarterbacks typically produce UNDERs on the road...I feel that Edmonton will play it conservative on offense."

That analysis seems pretty sharp.  Good luck.

Dane Evans single handedly gifted that over and win to the Elks. 17 points off turnovers in the 2nd half. 

Wow, the Tiger-Cats have the look of a falling-off-a-cliff type of team....their quarterback is extremely turnover prone and their receivers can't catch.  Dane Evans looks terrible out there.

Hamilton basically will be unbackable for the rest of the season

Meanwhile, Tre Ford when he gets his feet under him will be the CFL's version of Lamar Jackson....another one of the future for the CFL.  Edmonton's defense looked a bit better, but it's hard to tell if that is truth as the Tiger-Cats O is so bad.

Plays:

1)  Edmonton +6' winner

2)  Edmonton UNDER 46' loser

3)  Lions -2' two units, winner, winner

4)  Lions OVER 47 winner

Indigo early week 5 lines

Edmonton          +4    Calgary    49

Saskatchewan    -11   Hamilton  45

British Columbia -2'    Winnipeg  51

It is not that profound of a statement that the Lions/Bombers game will be the game of the season so far in the CFL.....and I cannot think of a more interesting regular season game in the last few years in the CFL.  I will be surprised if the linemaker makes the Lions favorites in this game, but so far the Lions have been by far the best performing team in the CFL and it has not been particularly close....I'd put them as 7 points better than any other team based on performance alone so far.  Obviously you have a two time defending champ with the track record, who hasn't performed  exceptionally well  so far...however they've been champs for a reason and this will be one game where motivation, or lack of, shouldn't be an issue.

I will be on the Lions if they come a dog.  Las Vegas bookies have been slow on the uptake in the past with up and coming teams.....we'll see if they got game in this situation.

I went back and checked how the top 20 players in the KOC contest did on the Hamilton/Edmonton game.....the results were illuminating.

Only six out of seventeen correctly picked Edmonton to cover.

Only five out of seventeen correctly picked the OVER.

The cumulative record for last night's game was 11-23 ATS among those who were the best handicappers so far in the CFL.

Could this be an untapped resource of a way to make money betting on sports?

I have used the term "the masses are asses" before.  Only 4% of gamblers make money.  Would it not be a valid theory to fade those who are handicapping at unsustainably excellent level?  The number 20th ranked guy was hitting 16 out of 24 for the season going into last night's game, or around 67%.....very few by the end of the season will be hitting at that level. 

The CFL experts all had Hamilton last night to fall to 1-3 ATS since I started keeping track at the start of last week.  They have the Bombers over the Argonauts later on this weekend.

Top 20 KOC contest picks tally so far for the remaining games this weekend.....

Montreal 5 Saskatchewan 5..........2 OVER 7 UNDER

Toronto 3 Winnipeg 6..................4 OVER 5 UNDER

In streak surviver contest, natural tendency is for top 50 contestants to be right or wrong roughly half of the time.  So fading or following their picks might or might not be profitable in the long run.

Probably I didn't go into detail like I could've.  I would use it as a filter to get off of a game or stay off of a game.  

I will track this for the first time this season to see if has validity, the same as I am tracking how fading the experts at cfl.ca goes, which has so far been very good.

There was a thread in another betting website last year that tracked consensus picks from three major newspapers (in New York I think it was).  When all three had the same consensus on one team, fading that team hit an absurdly high percentage.  So, until I am convinced by an actual trial that this idea won't work, I'll continue to explore it.  I possibly would've gotten off going UNDER on the Edmonton game based on what I found in the contest section. 

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