Indigo CFL week 4

As a poster previously  kindly pointed out, there has been a trend in Eastern Division results versus the West.

Week 1

Alouettes +3' @ Calgary 27-30          ADW

Ottawa +       @Winnipeg 17-19        ADW

Hamilton +1' @Saskatchewan 13-30 ADL

Week 2

Ottawa +1'   Winnipeg 12-19          HDL

Hamilton -1' Calgary 30-33             HFL

Week 3

Montreal +    Saskatchewan 37-13 HDW

Hamilton +5 @Winnipeg 12-26       ADL

Toronto +3' @B. Columbia 3-44      ADL

Week 4

Ottawa + B. Columbia 31-34....       ???

Hamilton -6' Edmonton 25-29         HFL

Montreal +4' Saskatchewan            AD

Toronto +4'  Winnipeg                   HD

Eastern division teams in non-division games

At home 1-3 ATS (consider Ottawa/BC game a no-contest as some were winners and other bettors were losers)

On road 2-3 ATS

I made reference this in an earlier thread that after week four that trend of the West dominating has historically leveled out.

East teams at home have gone 4-1 o/u and on the road they've gone 1-4 o/u.

A few angles that are relevant today....

A home favorite before week 9 that has the lesser average scoring margin.....4-10 ATS (-4.3), 7-7 straight up (0.0), 5-9 o/u (-2.6)....Riders

Riders have a +1/game scoring margin and the Alouettes have a +7/game scoring margin

week<=8 and HF and tA(W)>oA(W) and tA(margin)<oA(margin)

A home favorite before week 9 with the better win/loss percentage....45-69 ATS (-0.9), 80-35 straight up (+6.2), 48-67 o/u (-1.8)....Riders

week<=8 and HF and tA(W)>oA(W)

A home favorite avenging an away favorite loss before week 11....11-14 ATS, 10-15 o/u .....Riders

week<11 and HF and P:AFL

A home favorite avenging an away favorite loss before week 11....11-14 ATS, 10-15 o/u .....Riders

Our you using the dog? I don't get the same, I get 13-21 and 8-14 week<7.

I used this, and it was before week 15 NOT week 11.

HF and division!=o:division and P:AFL and week<15

11-14 ATS and 9-16 o/u.

Play:

5)  Alouettes UNDER 45

Using this angle...

.

tS(W@A, N=2)=0 and AD and division!=o:division and week<12 and tA(W)

We are playing UNDER on an away non-divisional dog that has lost its last two road games in week <12 with the lesser winning percentage off a home win.......going with this year's trend of the East playing UNDERs in non-divisional games on the road...good fortune.

I used the bottom one you had in post #52,I thought that was the bottom angle.

Here is another angle supporting the UNDER.

tA(ou margin)>0 and AD and week<6 and division!=o:division and division

A non-divisional away dog in weeks 1-5 that has a average positive o/u margin on the season so far......this has gone 16-28 o/u.

It is looking like the linemaker has drawn his line in the sand and has said "you are not beating me with UNDERs this season!", as the average past total in this situation has been 53 and obviously we are 8 points below that in this game.  If you run the query you'll see that the average covering margin is around 2 points/game to the UNDER, which equates to an average of 51 points scored between the two teams, so we are playing this pick with trepidation. 

The  expected scoring binge with the rule changes made this season in the CFL may have started after a three week delay.  I will be inclined to believe that the linemaker has over-compensated after last season's epic overall CFL offensive meltdown  if this game goes OVER today. 

I had 1st half under 22 and that kickoff TD sucked. It's always the unders that I get screwed on. Hopefully under 45 still wins. I'm going to add more 2nd half under 23. 

Flying over. Fuck. No defense from Allouettes and bonehead penalties all over. 

That guy wakefield really dgaf

Done with this bullshit league. Took the unders and got burned twice this week. Fuck the defenses. 

East

Tough game, I am not going to play the last game.  I'll be off UNDERs for the time being until we start seeing totals in the 50s.  All the best going forward guys...the CFL can be a landmine sometimes.

4-2 for the week......I am 17-9 ATS in the KOC CFL contest, and 14-14 ATS on this thread...should have gone with my first impressions, obviously.

So far this since the start of week 3, cfl.ca experts are 1-3 ATS, with their play on the Bombers remaining this week.

Plays:

1)  Riders UNDER 45 loser

2)  Elks UNDER 46' loser

3)  Elks +7 winner

4)  BC -2' winner, winner

5)  BC OVER winner

We're gonna see some outlandish lines when the West meets the East for awhile now into the future, as there is going to be a cascade of money on West Division  teams when they play the East for the foreseeable future as well as money on OVERs.  Doubtful that we will be bucking that trend, as in stock market investing they say......

"Never  try to catch a falling knife", (or don't get in the way of a trend).

                  Indigo week 5

Edmonton           +4 Calgary    49

Saskatchewan      -9 Ottawa    50

British Columbia  -2' Winnipeg 50

The scoring average  in the CFL has been the home team winning 27-24 for many years, until covid canceled one season and then last year scoring bottomed out to 43 points/game.....this season so far we are at 50 points/game, including the first three games of week 4, so we're  almost back to where it was.  You would think that sportsbooks would be privy to this information, but if one isn't aware of it by now, the CFL and the linemaking that goes into it is always full of surprises.

Unbeaten non-divisional away favorites.....7-20 ATS, 4-15 ATS (-4.6) if that team played in at least two playoff games the season prior,...this moves to 1-5 ATS, 2-4 straight up if the game is in week 4 or greater.....Bombers 

AF and division!=o:division and tpS(playoffs)>1 and week>3

Home non-divisional dogs off an away loss versus an opponent off a home win before week 5.......5-2 ATS (+9.0), 5-2 straight up (+4.8), 5-2 o/u (+14.9)......Argos

HD and division!=o:division and oA(margin)-tA(margin)-line>0 and p:AL and op:HW and week<5

Top 20 KOC contest picks so far

Toronto 6 Winnipeg 8

OVER 10  UNDER 5

Not surprising that predominant POV is OVERs after what transpired in the earlier games this week....average public betting percentage is around 60% to the OVER in the CFL betting.

Eastern Division teams are 9 games under 500.....after covering two week 1 games as away underdogs, East teams have gone 1-8-1 ATS since.

Plays:

7)  Argos +5

8)  Argos UNDER 44

Final tally top 20 KOC.....

Toronto 6  Winnipeg 11

OVER 13 UNDER 5

Apologies.....got Argos at +4.5

Plays:

6)  Argos +4'

7)  Argos UNDER 44

____________________

1)  BC -2' two units winner

2)  BC OVER winner

3)  Elks +7 winner

4)  Elks UNDER loser

5)  Alouettes UNDER loser

Half time....comedy of errors for the Argos, the worst four teams in the league all live in the Eastern Division.

We'll see if MBT can figure out what team to throw the ball to in the second half.

Lol told ya. Nothing in the CFL goes under lately and you still bet the under 

Put your picks out ahead time Jerk Face and we'll see how you do.

@Indigo999

I can blindly play overs and probably win.  So unfortunate that half the cappers here are good writers but the result never matches what the writing is.