Alright, I am amending my NFL picks, as for the most part I wasn't able to get the opening lines and for one instance I don't like the public being so heavily on one side.
Plays:
1) Giants +3 +100.....line has moved like a rocket, possibly in part because of the injury to Fitzmagic. Heinicke will get the start, and he is a capable quarterback, at least as good as Fitzpatrick and it may be that he plays well enough to be the guy for Washington going forward. He was impressive last season in the playoff game versus eventual Super Bowl winner Tampa Bay. Giants, as Spottie's research shows has done well versus the Football Team. And also, the Giants for some peculiar reason play much much better as away underdogs than they do at home....you would be up a considerable amount of money if you blindly bet against the Giants at home and played them every game on the road for the past three seasons.
Giants are part of an angle that is 88-40 ATS in the first 6 weeks, the last 5 or 6 years, and there is a 13-44 ATS angle playing against the Football Team.
2) Bengals +3, -120.
Bears are part of the week two 13-44 ATS play against angle detailed above. Unlike college football, teams off very close wins, losses and/or overtime games playing this week as away dogs do very well in the NFL. And, we want a quarterback that can win us a game by himself if need-be as an away dog. Joe Burrow can do that. Bears have a new defensive coordinator, and it is looking likely that they will revert to a mediocre unit after being dominant for the last few years. I've said many times that strong rushing attacks and defense win games at home in the NFL, and now the Bears have neither.
3) Tennessee +5'
Ja, they were pathetic last week, losing by 25 on their home field, while the Seahawks were winning by 12 on the road.....so what gives?....the implied line is Seahawks -40 (12 minus -25, plus giving 3 points to the home team). Why are the Seahawks only giving 5 and a half? In early season, it is a very big moneymaker to go against the implied line for the first six weeks of the season. Vegas is making the Seahawks on-sale by offering a reduced price. Don't do what Vegas wants you to do, ok? And, look at where all the smart money is going in the early part of the week.....it is going against the teams that performed better in game 1 that their week 2 opponent. Early money in the week is usually smart money in the NFL, "the pros". Your recreational money, "the Joes" will come later on in the week.
I listed Dallas as a play yesterday, but I haven't played them....I am re-considering them because 65% of KOC contest players are on them. I hate taking underdogs that have that high of a consensus, and those types of contests usually end up with the public underdog going down in flames. The line hasn't moved off of 3, which makes it more suspicious. I like the Cowboys this season, but in some cases what the public is doing will dictate how we will bet.
I am required to give two more plays for when the contest goes off, by Thursday as I am playing the Thursday game. I will update what those plays are. These three games I have put out will be my top three plays for the NFL.
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