Indigo Contrarian Football League week 7

22-10 for the season....I have been both fortunate and good in the CFL this season.

AND, not very good in college football.....

"PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN WITH HIS NCAA PICKS!!"

And someone else we're not going to pay much attention to is Mister Sports Interaction and his attempt at making lines in the CFL, whether he Canadian or not.

Indigo lines for week 7.

Hamilton -5    Calgary 45

Riders     -4    Toronto 44

Montreal  -3    Lions 48

Edmonton +6  Bombers 43

The Argos will be favored their next two games which is usually a buy signal for an away dog.

The Alouettes will be an underdog their next two games, which is usually a sell signal for a home favorite.

Spottie and I did a ton of research preseason as we knew our online database was being terminated.

I am posting the relevant queries for this week's games in the NFL, college and CFL, as a help to readers and to us.  I will note what games fit with the query or the article I posted back in August.

Here's some interesting research on the NFL

Teams that went 5-1 or 6-0 straight up in divisional games the season prior this past season were the Saints, Bills, Titans and Packers.

How do those teams perform in September?

As dogs they've been 56-34 ATS, 62.2%, and if we subtract their 13-13 ATS mark as dogs in week one this moves to 43-21 ATS.  They have been 32-16 ATS out of division as dogs and 11-5 ATS in division.

Titans

Teams that won 1 or 0 divisional games last season, how do they do in September?.....Jets, Lions, Falcons, Broncos, Jaguars, Bengals.

As:

Divisional home dogs.......25-14 ATS.....Jets

non-divisional home dogs.......20-31 ATS......Jaguars

non-divisional away dogs........51-37 ATS......Bengals

divisional away dogs......34-25 ATS......Lions, Falcons, 

non-divisional away favorites....11-7, 8-3 first two weeks....Broncos

Looks like you're onto something Spot with your dogs of less than 6 in September games congrats!!

Away dogs <6, 38-16 ATS in September......Cowboys, Bengals

Home divisional dogs<6, 20-11 ATS in September......Panthers, Jets

Home non-divisional dogs<6 in September 12-23 ATS......Eagles, Jaguars

The best part of this seems to be to take a team that won 0, 1 or 2 divisional games in September that are away dogs of less than 6 points......85-42 ATS

Texans, Eagles, Cowboys, Cardinals, Bears, Panthers, Lions, Jaguars, Falcons, Broncos, Bengals, Jets .............as away dogs of <6 in September

Teams that won <3 games in division previous season and are home favorites of less than 6 have been 46-81 ATS in September in the first three weeks of the season.......Bears, Cardinals

NFL week 2 plays:

1)  Bengals +3

2)  Cowboys +3

3)  Ravens +2'

4)  Titans +5'

5)  Giants +4

and Vegas + if they lose tomorrow.

Probables for NCAA football......Tulane, Purdue

Probables for CFL....Toronto, Calgary at >=+3

Westgate top 7 pick percentage for week 1.

San Fran 81%......W/L depending on when/where you got your line, it closed as high as -9'.

LA Rams 80%.......W

Vegas 78%...........?

WFT 78%..............L

NE 73%................L

Vikings 72%..........L

One caveat.......the most likely time a publicly backed team will win is on Monday Night Football, though it is rare that the public is on a dog like they are on Vegas.

A)  WFT (and possibly the Patriots) are favorite(s) that will be a dog their next two games.

B)  The Cowboys, Ravens, Titans (and maybe the Dolphins) are dogs that will be favored their next two.

C)  Bears and WFT fit an angle that is 13-44 ATS in week 2 to play against a home favorite (who didn't win either 0 or 6 divisional games last season) off an away loss who will either be a dog or their opponent will be favored their next game.

At first glance, week 7 games appear to lean toward traditional trends of mostly underdogs and total unders.  If wind speeds exceed 13 miles per hour,  natural struggle expected for passing and kicking.

NYG vs Washington is a nice looking one.  I absolutely hate its on Thursday but head to head Washington sucks against them. 

These are taken from odds shark 

• Washington is 8-22 Overall, 11-18-1 ATS, and 9-20-1 Over/Under in these games.
• As a Favorite Washington is 7-13-1 Overall, 7-14 ATS, and 8-11-1 Over/Under in these games.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

• As a HF vs NYG 
• Washington is 6-13-1 SU Overall, 6-14 ATS, and 10-9-1 Over/Under in these games.

Here are the parameters of our 13-44 ATS angle:

1)  Home favorite

2)  Non-Sunday Night game

3)  Set of games start after the NFL went to 8 divisions of 4 teams after the 2002 season

4)  Our team will either be an underdog their next game or their opponent will be a favorite

5)  Our home favorite will be off a loss

6)  Our team won 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 divisional games the previous season (or they didn't win 0 or 6 divisional games)

Here is our query....

season>2002 and 6>tpS(W@DIV, N=6)>0 and week<8 and HF and (n:D or on:F) and snf=0 and p:L and week

By week:

2)  13-44 ATS

Versus Bears, WFT

Alright, I am amending my NFL picks, as for the most part I wasn't able to get the opening lines and for one instance I don't like the public being so heavily on one side.

Plays:

1)  Giants +3 +100.....line has moved like a rocket, possibly in part because of the injury to Fitzmagic.  Heinicke will get the start, and he is a capable quarterback, at least as good as Fitzpatrick and it may be that he plays well enough to be the guy for Washington going forward.  He was impressive last season in the playoff game versus eventual Super Bowl winner Tampa Bay.  Giants, as Spottie's research shows has done well versus the Football Team.  And also, the Giants for some peculiar reason play much much better as away underdogs than they do at home....you would be up a considerable amount of money if you blindly bet against the Giants at home and played them every game on the road for the past three seasons. 

Giants are part of an angle that is 88-40 ATS in the first 6 weeks, the last 5 or 6 years, and there is  a 13-44 ATS angle playing against the Football Team.

2)  Bengals +3, -120.

Bears are part of the week two 13-44 ATS play against angle detailed above.  Unlike college football, teams off very close wins, losses and/or overtime games playing this week as away dogs do very well in the NFL.  And, we want a quarterback that can win us a game by himself if need-be as an away dog.  Joe Burrow can do that.  Bears have a new defensive coordinator, and it is looking likely that they will revert to a mediocre unit after being dominant for the last few years.  I've said many times that strong rushing attacks and defense win games at home in the NFL, and now the Bears have neither.

3)  Tennessee +5'

Ja, they were pathetic last week, losing by 25 on their home field, while the Seahawks were winning by 12 on the road.....so what gives?....the implied line is Seahawks -40 (12 minus -25, plus giving 3 points to the home team).  Why are the Seahawks only giving 5 and a half?  In early season, it is a very big moneymaker to go against the implied line for the first six weeks of the season.  Vegas is making the Seahawks on-sale by offering a reduced price.  Don't do what Vegas wants you to do, ok?  And, look at where all the smart money is going in the early part of the week.....it is going against the teams that performed better in game 1 that their week 2 opponent.  Early money in the week is usually smart money in the NFL, "the pros".  Your recreational money, "the Joes" will come later on in the week.

I listed Dallas as a play yesterday, but I haven't played them....I am re-considering them because 65% of KOC contest players are on them.  I hate taking underdogs that have that high of a consensus, and those types of contests usually end up with the public underdog going down in flames.  The line hasn't moved off of 3, which makes it more suspicious.  I like the Cowboys this season, but in some cases what the public is doing will dictate how we will bet.

I am required to give two more plays for when the contest goes off, by Thursday as I am playing the Thursday game.  I will update what those plays are.  These three games I have put out will be my top three plays for the NFL.

Generally, in the NFL, your Sunday day games are contrarian in nature, which means that the public will lose betting popular teams and favorites in that situation.  Your Monday night, Sunday night and Thursday night games the public can win taking favorites and popular teams, as evidenced this week by the public darling Raiders getting the money tonight, as well as the Rams winning on Sunday night.

I use the King of Covers contest to get my betting consensus data, as they have no reason to falsify betting information, whereas I never really trust the betting consensus information that is produced by thespread and sportsinsights, etc.

Baltimore?...teams off a close away loss do very badly at home in the NFL, though it is much worse if they are home favorites.  And, they are playing against the Chiefs and Andy Reid, who has the best road record in the history of the NFL.  IDK, it didn't look like Action Jackson had any "it factor" tonight.  Jackson has been much better on the road in his stellar career so far.  He's lost a ton of running backs and has basically guys just signed off the street to help them beat Mahomes, Reid and company off a devastating loss....I've re-considered that play.  

The Ravens were going against a HUGE technical angle where game one MNF favorites were 19-38 ATS going into the game, and obviously they weren't able to overcome that tonight.

We'll track these six quarterbacks this season and compare their home and road results, all of them at least good quarterbacks and some of them elite.....1)  Jackson   2)  Jalen Hurts    3)  Russell Wilson   4)  Josh Allen    5)  Mahomes  6) Kyler Murray

What do all of  of them have in common....they  can make things happen with their legs....betcha their performance is better on the road this season against the spread than at home.....we'll see.  So far those qbs are 3-1 ATS on the road, and 0-2 ATS at home.

Doing this again....

Here are the parameters of our 13-44 ATS week 2 angle:

1)  Home favorite

2)  Non-Sunday Night game

3)  Set of games start after the NFL went to 8 divisions of 4 teams after the 2002 season

4)  Our team will either be an underdog their next game or their opponent will be a favorite

5)  Our home favorite will be off a loss

6)  Our team won 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 divisional games the previous season (or they didn't win 0 or 6 divisional games)

Here is our query....

season>2002 and 6>tpS(W@DIV, N=6)>0 and week<8 and HF and (n:D or on:F) and snf=0 and p:L and week

By week:

2)  13-44 ATS

Versus

1)  Bears will be underdogs @Cleveland next week

2)  WFT will be underdogs @Buffalo next week

3)  Packers will be underdogs @San Francisco next week

Thank you for all the information! Your week 1 nfl information helped immensely 

No worries buddy, glad you did well with it.

Lots of powerful information here.  You earned some upvotes.

Good luck this week.

Record season to date:

NFL:      5-1 ATS

NCAA:   7-7 ATS

CFL:    22-10 ATS

Total   34-18 ATS, 65.4%

These are my college plays....obviously they are disappointing so far, most years college football has been the best of the 3.  For whatever reason, they haven't been this season.  Use them or throw them in the trash, your choice.

Plays:

Here is an advanced concept that many will dismiss....and some will resonate with it and benefit....I am not here to convince anyone of the validity of my handicapping or the methods that I use.  This works for the all of the football we are betting on, and it works in college basketball.  It doesn't work in MLB and gives one a slight advantage in the NBA.

First, I will put out next week's advance lines that my shop has put up.  These change according to the results of week 2.  In doing research using advance lines has proved to be predictive of what happens in the now.  It is based on the premise that time is not linear, but what happens in the future has a bearing on the past as well as vice versa.  There has been research to back that premise up, that I won't get into.

week 3

Home team listed first

Texans +4 Panthers

Titans -3 Colts

NY Giants -2' Falcons

Chiefs -7 Chargers

Steelers -6' Bengals

Browns -9 Bears

Lions +7' Ravens

Patriots -1 Saints

Jaguars +6 Cardinals

Bills -8' WFT

Broncos -8' Jets

Raiders -1 Dolphins

Vikings +2' Seahawks

Rams -1' Bucs

49ers -3 Packers

Taking a team who future line is stronger than their opponent's future line produces a 57% covering rate....the covering percent rate is higher when playing an away or home dog.

Now, can a predicted favorite become a dog, or a predicted dog become a favorite?  The answer is yes, especially early season when there are not a lot of game results.  For example I don't recall the predicted preseason line for their game 3 matchup with San Fran, but losing a game 3-38 when you were favored is gonna change the line from what was predicted. 

If one uses a buffer of say 4 points, it almost never happens that when one team's future line will be greater than 4 points more than their present opponent that the game results cause a change so drastic in the predicted lines that it reverses.

Game two lines with next game future line next to it.

Home           future line            Away future line                     Positive indicator(s)

WFT -3         +9 @BB               NYG  H vs AF -2'                  ++ indicator on NYG the dog whose future line is stronger than opponent's 

Jets +6        +8' @DB              NE   H vs NO -1                    + Indicator on NE whose future line is >9 points stronger than NYJ's.

Jags +6        +6 H vs AZ          DB  H vs NYJ -8'                  + Indicator on DB whose future line is >13 points stronger than JJ's.

MD +3'          +1 @LV               BB  H vs WFT -9                  + Indicator on BB who future line is >9 points stronger than MD's.

PE +3'           +6 @DC              SF   H vs GB -3                     + Indicator on SF who future line is >8 points stronger than PE's.

IC +3'            +3' @TT             LAR  H vs TB -1'

PS -6             -6' H vs Beng      LVR  H vs MD -1

Home team     Home future line   Away team future line

Bears -3         +9 @Cle                  Beng @PS +6                        ++ Indicator on Bengals as away dog whose future line is stronger than Bears'.

Cle -12            -9 H vs Chi            HT H vs CP +4                       +  Indicator on Browns whose future line is >15 points stronger than HT's.

CP +4              -4 @HT                  NO @NE +1                            ++ Very good indicator on home dog whose future line is 5 points stronger than NO's.

AZ -4'              -6 @JJ                   MV H vs SS +2'                       + Indicator on AZ as their future line is >7 points greater than MV's.

TB -12             +1' @LAR               AF @NYG +2'

SS -5               -2' @MV                TT H vs IC -3                          ++ Indicator on away dog TT whose future line is stronger than SS's.

LAC -3              +7 @KC               DC H vs PE -6                         ++ Indicator on away dog DC whose future line is >10 points stronger than LAC's.

BR +3'              -7' @DL              KC H vs LAD -7

GB -11              +3 @SF               DL H vs SF +7'

Underdogs cover over 60%  when their future line is stronger than their present opponent's line.  Away favorites cover at around 55% and home favorites around 56-57% in the same scenario.

The Ravens are also ++ but it is close as their future line is -7.5 and KC's is -7.

Amending statement made in thread #21.

Underdogs cover over 60%  when their next game future line is stronger than their present opponent's next game future line.

I ended up taking the Cowboys....too much positive stuff favoring them....if I'm wrong, I'll be there with 65% of the public....LOL.

Plays:

1)  NYG +3, +100

2)  Bengals +3, -120

3)  Titans +5'

4)  Cowboys +3, -115

considering Panthers, Ravens, Lions 

In support of your CIN pick:

week < 4.5 and F and line > -3.7 and RSWL < 7.9   ---   fade CHI

ATS:  25-61-3   avg margin -4.0 (SU 35-53-1) CIN should win SU.

The RSWL seems to work in the new limited Killer Sports but the PRSW does not.