Indigo Contrarian Football League week 7

Good luck this week 

Thanks, for you as well.

We will talk about betting against the season-to-date betting margin calculated line in the NFL.  It is about the best thing going.  I've touched on it a few times before.....it is one of the secret sauces in one's betting arsenal that if you do it, you'll win.  Like most winning concepts, it is counterintuitive.

Our database is up and running......for how long, IDK.  So, after the explanation I will show you the results after the last 30 years.

We take the average scoring differential per game for the season to date and come up with a calculated line and then add 2.5 points to the home team line.

Obviously in game number 2, we only have one game of results so there is no averaging needed.  This works for away dogs and that is what we will calculate.  The database is undergoing a change of management and things have changed, and I am not able to do calculations on this for anything but away dogs, which is the most profitable part of this exercise.  

We will calculate all games involving away dogs in week two by subtracting the away dogs differential from their opponent's differential.  When our team has a calculated DISADVANTAGE of greater than 3 points they are a play.

Team     points differential       Opponent     points differential          Calculated line                 Actual line                      Play on dog Y/N?

Raiders        +6                       Steelers           7                                 Raiders +4                  Raiders +5'             No, calculated line is not 3 points greater

Giants         -14                       WFT               -4                                 Giants +13                   Giants +3 +100     Yes, line differential between calulated and actual line is 10 points.

Bengals        +3                      Bears              -20                                -14                             Bengals +1             No

Vikings          -3                      Cardinals         25                                 Vikings +31                 Vikings +4              Yes, calculated line of +31 is 27 points greater than actual line

Cowboys        -2                      Chargers         4                                   Cowboys +9                Dallas +3               Yes, calculated line of Giants +9 is 6 points greater than actual line

Titans            -25                    Seahawks        12                                Titans +40                    Titans +5'              Yes, 34.5 point differential between calculated line of Tennessee +40 and actual line of TT +5'

Calculated line of:

1)  Giants +9, the actual line is +3....Giants are a play

2)  Vikings' differential after game one is -3 (they lost by 3 points), AZ's is +25 (they won by 25) so there is a 28 point differential, add 3 for the home field for AZ, calculated line is Vikings +31, actual line is Vikings +4'......... so they are a play.

3)  Titans' differential is -25 and Seattle's is 13, so the calculated line is Titans +38 and then add 3 more points for home field to get Titans +41, line on game is +5'.....Titans are a play.

4)  Dallas was -2 first game losing by 2 points, and Chargers were +4 winning by 4 points , so the calculated line with home field is Cowboys +9, and since the differential between calculated and actual line is more than 3 points, the Cowboys +3 are a play.

We are doing this for away dogs of 6 or less.....weeks 2-5 this is 191-132 ATS, 58.9%....I have a filter that makes this 123-62 ATS, which filters out the Vikings to make them a no-play. 

That is a nice find Dogbite, thanks for making that available.....we can be grateful that the database works it all, but I suppose the question is, why wouldn't it be working with someone else operating it?.....it is like someone took out a key nut or bolt to disable it, so it'll never work as well is it originally has.

Why not just sell the whole website as is  to a new owner, and have them charge users a fee to use it?

There is a metaphysical premise that when there is unequal exchange it leads to resentment either by the giver or strangely, by the receiver(s).  We have gotten great usage out of something for free, and my view is the operator got tired of giving something for nothing.

Research has shown that people that don't pay their dental bills are much more apt to have continued dental problems. There needs to be an exchange...and with an exchange bettors' performance would have been improved as well. 

If he had just said, "Listen, I am tired of giving you guys all of this, without receiving anything  in return", someone would have stepped up or people would have paid money for an excellent resource, or someone would have offered to buy it from him.

It is so full of goobledygook now, that only computer geeks will operate it, and that's with every sport disabled except baseball and NFL football.....there is more behind this whole saga than we know.

And the only other database that I know about that is functional online is sportsinsights, which I tried over the weekend....it is a piece of trash.

Contest season to date: 4-1 ATS

Patriots couldn't quite get it done for me last week.

The first four plays I had no issue with and they were no-brainers....number 5 I debated between Carolina and Baltimore, and in the end I picked Action Jackson over Sam Darnold. 

Makes sense right?!

Wait a minute,......whoever said betting made sense?  If betting made sense we would be living in mansions and bookmakers would be living in homeless shelters.  When I look at threads that say, "Common sense picks", I know they are someone to fade......we'll see what happens.

I was able to query the situation with Baltimore as a home dog off a loss, as a team with less wins their present opponent, with a future line that is stronger than their opponent's.  Before week 5 this has been 22-6 ATS, covering by an average of 6 points per game and winning straight up 52% of the time.

n:line<on:line and HD and week<5 and t:wins<o:wins and p:L

Superbook contest plays to the left, personal plays to the right

1)  NYG +3'............+3

2)  Titans +5'.........+5'

3)  Bengals +2'.......+3

4)  Cowboys +3......+3

5)  Baltimore Jacksons +3'.....no play yet

I will use my personal play line as my record for season-to-date records.  Everyone by now should know that I am transparent and truthful in what I am putting out there on this forum and I am not making up records or B.S.ing anyone.  If I suck in a particular week or in a particular football code I am the first to acknowledge it.  And, as I have said, my college picks this year have been abysmal, so you can look at it as I am due, or I don't know what I am doing in college football.....two sides to every coin right?

Staff writers' picks for the CFL.....6 writers whose composite record is now 60-78 or 43.4%, or on average 10-13 per writer on the season.

1)  6 out of 6 are on the Stampeders, 61% of KOC contestants on the Stamps......this has me considering the Tiger Cats

2)  4 out of 6 are on the Riders,.........already on the Argonauts, Fajardo questionable.

3)  4 out of 6 are on the Alouettes, KOC had 42% on Alouettes.

4)  6 out of 6 are on the Bombers...KOC 62% on Bombers

In every game of the KOC contest, the public is at least 55% on the OVER

In the NFL in September, a home dog that will be a favorite their next game has been 74-36 ATS, 41-13 ATS if they will be away favorites, and 36-11 ATS if the line is lesser than or equal to +6,  although 1-2 ATS on Sunday night.......Ravens will be away favorites @Detroit next week.

Away dogs in September that will be favorites their next two games with a line of <=6 and the lesser scoring average have been 46-20 ATS.....Cowboys, Titans

An away dog of six or less points off a home dog win in overtime.....13-4 ATS, 9-6-2 straight up, and 8-2 ATS, 4-4-2 straight if it is a non-divisional game

Bengals

CFL picks

Plays:

1)  Argos +3'.....Toronto are my favs this season and I am backing them here......their coach is very smart and puts his quarterback into good situations....early season non-divisional Friday away dogs  have an awesome record.....ARGOS 24-14.

2)  BC +3.....teams off a bye actually has been a negative situation....Alouettes will be dogs their two games, another another negative situation....and missing their head coach...three strikes and you will lose the money........Lions 31-23.

Will try editing the numerous errors in the wordage of that last paragraph...LOL.

2)  BC +3.....teams off a bye actually has been a negative situation when playing as home favorites off of long rest....Alouettes will be dogs their next two games, another negative situation....and missing their head coach.......Lions 31-23.

Great picks

That remains to be seen FF.

1) Giants +3, winner...........New York  figures out a way to lose.....but they get the cover, they are now 19-6 against the spread on the road the last 3+ seasons.

The Westgate Supercontest gives one point per winner against the spread, and a half point for a draw.

75 players were ahead of me going into week 2.....I am now 5-1 with my four plays remaining this week.....Ravens, Titans, Cowboys, Bengals.

Two out of four games the spread has moved against my early plays; a) in the case of the Titans moving from 5 all the way up to 6.5  b) in the case of the Cowboys moving from 3 to 3.5.  Both those moves are signficant as 3 is the most important number and then 6 and 7 are next.  I will have to be more patient in my betting as if a line does move, 75% of the time it will move the favorite's way.

The Bengals' line has gone way down from +4 to +2 and the Ravens' line is vacillating between +3' and +4.

I am a $5 bettor, so I wouldn't be one of those paying for a full-service database.  I have already sent one email reporting a glitch, so I am doing my part in improving what's left of Killer Sports.

Sorry about Sports Insights of which I had never heard.  The Sports Geek review:

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-betting/systems/sportsinsights-review/

 With no learnt learning in terms of social media manipulation.....  You follow, then you're Joe public.  Do you want to be Joe public?  Or, do you believe in your eyes?

Unfortunately, anything can happen.    

We had a nice one today Mr. I

Hmmm, don't know if I am following you Bruce.  "Believing your eyes"?  If you mean watching the games and making an assessment based on what you see.I am 90% against that as a way of handicapping, it's what 90% of the public does, and research shows that 96% of the public loses.

You've seen I use data to determine what games I may play and then use my right brain to rule a game in or out.  My very best season in my life I didn't have access to watching most of the games.

Or, if you mean looking at lines and deciding when and if you make a play, then that has something to do with it, like technical stock market traders disregard fundamentals and base their plays solely on what their chart is looking like.  I am using into stock investing using technical methods.

Like anything in life, there are no absolutes, only tendencies....and we need to look at our own tendencies as bettors as well.  What has worked and what hasn't generally in the way we bet?  And what is our weaknesses?

I feel generally good about my evaluation process and my use of data.  However, throughout my betting life, I have had the tendency to think that everyone else is on to what I do and I enter into plays very early in the week.  And, I am playing >80% underdogs, and >60% of the time if  those lines move they will be moving towards the favorite  as they have been this week. In other words, in the NFL I usually don't get the best of the lines, and today with the Giants it didn't burn me, thankfully.   Perhaps I'll make a trading rule for myself that I don't bet until Thursday. at the earliest.

The NFL is supposed to be the sharpest market in the sports betting world.  LImited games, small amounts of data, anyone can beat anyone else.  I don't think it has been smart this season or this week so far, as I have pretty strong historical data that is very much against those moves, but we'll see how it unfolds. 

Line shopping well is a sign of a successful bettor.....pinnacle used to have a guy that wrote betting columns for them....I don't think they still have him.  He stated that they at Pinnacle could tell a good bettor if he was betting and the lines shifted the way he bet in the majority of cases.  Even that isn't absolute,...I had one college betting season where I was getting 20 points of value by betting my slate of games early in the week, each week and I think I had a losing season that year.  Smart money only wins 55-57% of the time.....even in Billy Walters' heyday, his winning percentage was around 56%.

 I am a $5 bettor, so I wouldn't be one of those paying for a full-service database.  I have already sent one email reporting a glitch, so I am doing my part in improving what's left of Killer Sports. Sorry about Sports Insights of which I had never heard.  The Sports Geek review: https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sports-betting/systems/sportsinsights-review/[/Quote]

Yes, I would say that sportsinsights works very well for those that want to see line movements, sharp and steam plays etc., and use that as a determing factor in their betting.....like HooAlum that I mentioned last week....that it is his whole method.  Using Sports Insights' bet labs for doing historical searches was what I was commenting on, it had nowhere near the capability of the former sportsdatabase.  The most powerful part of sportsdatabase.com were the future lines component (n:F and on:D), the use of previous season wins (PRSW) and this season's regular season win line (RSWL).    

It was brilliant.

Bet labs has none of that.

Plus once you enter into them,.....you are inaundated with marketing material....it is similar to the multilevel marketing people that once they get your contact details or you display slight interest in something they may offer, they grip onto you like a rotweilor and send  tons of useless promotional material.  You almost have to figuratively karate chop them to get them off of you, and then after you've come up for air, they act hurt like "Man, you are really a jerk, I am just trying to help you!".

"No thanks, I am not wanting to subscribe to this, or listen to that, of try a sample of this, or go to your seminar." ....LOL.

And no thanks, I won't have the meal deal, just the burger, thanks.

NFL Play:

6)  Panthers +3'

Both the Panthers and the Ravens fall into an angle that show that a home dog that will be an away favorite their next game in September has been 41-13-3 ATS, 36-20-1 straight up.  They cover by an average of 7.6 points/game and the game margin has been +4.14 points/game.

Divisional games in this scenario have been 17-3-1 ATS in September.

HD and n:AF and month=9

Lookahead line for Carolina next week @Houston is -3'.

Lookahead line for the Ravens next week @Detroit is -7'.

Here is an angle for September in the NFL....

Parameters are:

1)  Play AGAINST a home favorite

2)  Off an away loss

3)  They will be an underdog their next game

4)  Game is played in September

  a) Sunday day game......64-122 ATS.....

     1)  VERSUS Bucs (lookahead line next week is Bucs +1' @Rams)

     2)  VERSUS Bears (due to be +7 next week @Steelers)

  b)  Monday night............4-6 ATS..........

     1)  VERSUS Packers (due to be +3' next week @SF)

HF and n:line>0 and month=9 and p:margin<0

This is 51-100 ATS if the line is -6 or less

@Indigo999

 Great job this season CFL cappers are hard to find I've been following you you've made me some dough keep up the good work

Going to tail on the Argos, but waiting until closer to game time, see if I can get another point or so.  Right now its at +4