Testing, testing

And, no parlays allowed.....

In Australia and New Zealand, where their situation is miles and miles better than north america, there is hopeful talk of starting the rugby season in late May and the Aussie Rules  season in July.  Australia has been very cautious in their dealings as is their normal method of operating, so it's doubtful their rugby league season will be starting in 6 weeks as Sydney, the epicenter of rugby in Australia/NZ has the highest amount of infections in Oz.  Australia is obviously headed into colder weather in the next few months which in the past has been a boon to viruses everywhere. 

On the other side of the world, north america heads towards summer and sitting on the bench for Humanity biding her time to go against the Corona Vs has been Ms. Reliable, Mother Nature.   In the past she's has been in the middle of it in turning points in both pandemics and world wars,.......she shows up when you need a big play. 

She plays it dirty and tough, the kind of player you want onside.  Ask 600 Egyptians on chariots how it was to go against her 3000 years ago (Exodus 14), or the German Army in 1941 as Mother had her old friend General Winter show up for dinner.  Right now the call has come from the bench that it's time for her to do what she does for  the side of humanity.

Seasons of Canadian and USA football stlll up in the air.  2/3 of athletic directors in the NCAA are negative on whether there will be a football season.

I believe there will be.

All the information on this thing in the media is "social distancing" is the key.  "Save lives, stay inside."

Here are medical doctors on the front lines that are 100% against the party line.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNTHuCOjAy8&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1Quk9R540MHzHyMRHZigijOGMCbDzH4IKT65Bv328kjtxdeHlRL2HQHBY

In the USA deaths due to registered coronavirus patients is at 172 people per million of population.

In other words it is killing 1.7 people out of every thousand people in the USA, or 17.2 out of every 10,000.

In Canada there have been 2,707 deaths out of a population of 37.59 million people, which means it has killed one out of every 1,400 people (7.2 out of every 10,000 people).

Got the math wrong in the above post....172/1,000,000 for the USA

= 17 out of every 100,000 people in the USA.

Canada = 7 out of every 100,0000

68,000 deaths in the USA

2,700 deaths in Canada

95 in Australia

1 in 5,000 people in America have died from Covid-19

1 in 10,000 people in Canada "                                "

1 in 250,000 people in Australia "                             "

5,000 people a day are dying attributed to the virus worldwide, that is down from 8,000/day in the middle of April.  8 out of the past 10 days we've seen a decrease in the number of daily deaths worldwide.

If we're continuing down the curve we COULD be at 2,000 deaths/day by the end of May and less than 1,000 deaths/day by the end of June.                             

In the USA, medicare receives 13,000 dollars per covid-19 patient it accepts in hospital.  That payment is 39,000 if  client death if attributed to covid-19.  Funny how the USA had 300% more covid-19 deaths than any other country.

If I am running the country, I get the rid of the stipend for covid-19 patients immediately and magically the covid-19 numbers will come down.

Fauci also has a patent on a vaccine.

There are videos out there (perhaps youtube has taken them down by now) where doctors in emergency rooms are being pressured to put covid-19 as cause of death.

correction:  medicare PAYS to the hospital 13,000 etc.

NFL has posted schedule and lines.  And the head of the CFL has expressed doubts of whether the CFL will have a season.

Here's a week 1 angle for the NFL.

Play ON a week 1  away dog that won 4, 5 or 6 regular season games last year....63-34 ATS.....Cardlnals, Dolphins and Browns  

Those teams are 25-12 ATS if the game is a divisional match-up.

Another angle for week one.

We are looking at an week 1 away dog that finished last year with less wins than their week one opponent.

AD and game number=1 and PRSW-o:PRSW<0 (sportsdatabase or killersports.com)

Those teams have been 105-75 ATS

If our play ON team from the previous query won 4, 5, 6 or 7 games last year, this moves to 70-35 ATS

AD and game number=1 and 3<PRSW<8 and PRSW<o:PRSW

Divisional games are 29-16 ATS and non-divisional games have been 41-19 ATS

Away dogs of <7 points have been 44-15 ATS

ON Dolphins, Jets and Bucs

On the other hand teams that won more games than their week one opponent in the regular season last year and are week 1 away dogs have been 19-37 ATS if they won >7 games last season

AD and game number=1 and PRSW>o:PRSW and PRSW>7

AGAINST Bears, Packers and Titans

Another method of playing week one games is to calculate average margin from the season previous and to go AGAINST the perceived advantage when there is greater than 6 point difference.

So to get the average points difference from last season, we do this (and this will also work from game 8 onwards when taking away dogs only).

team and season=2019 and playoffs=0

Home                               Away                       Calculated home team line

Vikings (+6.50)                Packers (+3.94)             -5.54

Broncos (-2.12)                Titans (+4.44)               +3.56        * ON Broncos if line is -2.5, or -3

Chiefs (+8.94)                 Texans (-.44)                -12.38

Ravens (+15.56)              Browns (-3.62)              -22.18        * Play on Browns

Giants (-6.88)                  Steelers (-.88)                +3

Falcons (-1.12)                Seahawks (.44)              -1.44

Saints (7.31)                    Bucs (.56)                     -9.75         Play on Bucs if line drops to 3.5

Redskins (-10.56)            Eagles  (1.94)                 +9.5

Rams (1.88)                    Cowboys (7.06)              +2.18

Raiders (-6.62)                Panthers (-8.12)              -1.5

Patriots (12.18)               Dolphins (-11.75)            -26.93     * Dolphins +6.5

Lions (-5.12)                   Bears (-1.12)                   +1

Jaguars (-6.06)                Colts (-.75)                     +2.31

49ers (10.56)                  Cardinals (-5.06)              -18.62   *Cardinals +8

Bengals (-8.81)               Chargers (-.50)                +5.31

Bills (3.44)                      Jets (-5.19)                      -11.63   ON Jets if line drops to 5.5                          

Good stuff.  Thanks.

Here is the last of my week 1 queries. 

Take a week one team that;

a) is an underdog or pik

b) won less than or equal regular season games last year than their opponent

c) either our play ON team will be favored by at least 3 points next game, or their opponent will be at least a 3 point underdog next game

c) our play ON team won 4, 5 or 6 games last season

game number=1 and line>=0 and PRSW<=o:PRSW and 3<PRSW<7 and (n:line<-3 or on:line>3)

48-15-3 ATS (+5.81)

28-38 straight up (+.73)

average line +5.1

.....Panthers, Cardinals, Browns, Dolphins

Some more NFL game one angles.

Game one teams that made the playoffs last season versus a non-playoff team in non-divisional games as away favorites have been 18-11 ATS....Seahawks.

In the same situation as above if our team is an away dog instead of an away favorite they have been 4-8 ATS......Titans

Here's an interesting one....teams that made the playoffs last season playing a team that didn't make the playoffs as a home divisional favorites  game one have been 21-33 ATS........VERSUS Bills, 49ers, Patriots, Raiders and Saints....if their opponent won <9 games last season those same teams have been 17-32 ATS, going 32-17 straight up with an average line of approximately -280/+250.  The  moneyline return has been 21% if you'd taken all underdogs straight up.

Divisional away favorites that made the playoffs last season versus a team that didn't make the playoffs have been 5-12 ATS.........VERSUS Eagles

Game one home favorites where both teams made the playoffs last season have been 20-10 ATS.....Chiefs, Vikings

Correction:  In post #39 above:

Home divisional favorites that made the playoffs versus a team that didn't the previous season have been 17-32 ATS.....those game 1 home favorites are.....Ravens (NOT Raiders), 49ers, Bills, Patriots and Saints.

Teams that are game 1 favorites that will be home dogs their next game have been 7-21 ATS....VERSUS Chargers

Read a very good article on the likelihood of NCAA football NOT happening....explained very well.  The gist of it is......most universities are state controlled which means the governors have final say on whether their states are open for football or whether their universities will even be open and operating in the fall term for that matter.  

There obviously is 3.5 months to go before the season is supposed to start, however what is the possibility that EVERY state will decide that they will be open?  Oregon has already said they won't be having a stadium full of people in September when their biggest game in a very long time  happening with Ohio State supposed to come to town, and they are one of the least hit states by the virus.  And to add to the issue, some of the schools are private institutions that will make their own individual decisions.  On the other hand, can universities stay viable by closing.  The states might be expected to prop the universities up, but some governements are so stricken now with debt that some of them are on the verge of bankruptcy.  There will be difficult decisions as state will have to decide between what their financial advisors are saying to them as viable enterprises on one side and what the epidemiologists are saying on the other.

If it is me, I open the universities and possibly risk a ton of infections to keep my state and school solvent because students almost always will handle the virus and it gives the younger, stronger and healthy population  a chance to build immunity which could then build herd immunity among the general population.    

"Even one student dying is too many", and such, you'd hear.  At some stage the country has got to get back on the saddle and there will be some that won't make it through.   Each student and their family will have their own choice to make whether they will attend school in the fall. However, if I am a governmental official and my financial advisors tell me we are close to bankruptcy, we have to open, and let the chips fall where they may.

Anyway, you are NOT going to get a consensus opinion by 10 schools in mostly differing states that make up a football conference to agree unanimously on anything and you really can't proceed in a conference if 7 states agree and 3 don't. 

-500 that there WON'T be a ncaa football season in 2020.

CFL and NFL are privately owned enterprises....I am guessing here, that they can be open to having football games, with the ultimate decision of whether or not fans can attend and if so, in what numbers will be up to the individual states and their governors.

And, what about the elections due to happen in the USA?.....if a state doesn't allow campaigning will it be a largely internet run entity?  Will debates be carried out by protagonists with no one attending?  Will the USA attempt to postpone the election until the following year?  Like most things political, this is going to cause quite a bit of controversy if the status quo is disrupted.

Last I heard, the Canadian CFL commissioner was very negative on the season.

I'd put it at -300 there's NO season in the CFL for 2020.

NFL looks likely to go ahead.  I'd make it -130 that they have a season, and +120 that it starts on time.  Will the states allow fans to  attend?....tough to say, maybe in reduced numbers or perhaps later in the season,  and players required to get tested minimum of 3 days/week.  Obviously the athletes are in great shape and aren't in mortal danger, but of course you can't have your whole team come down with covid-19 at the same time.

I don't think we'll see a cfl season  

Not looking too good, is it Hoody? 

Despite Europe and Australia starting their football in May or June, there's no word in Canada of any prospective opening of training camp, etc.

I don't know how the cfl works with the players money % and the league with tv money and all that stuff , I don't mind a short season starting late , but I did like watching NFL into XFL (witch I think would have made it) and then the CFL , my fingers are crossed.

who knows if this is correct but at least its some sort of information.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_BC_Lions_season

All wikipedia is saying that the season has been postponed until July.  Will that hold true?  Nothing yet on the CFL.ca page but they dont update that site as much as they should.

 I don't think the CFL is flush with cash...if they cancel the season perhaps the CFL will no longer exist unless they get assistance from the outside.

And our life expectancy would go up 10 years without having to deal with the agony and ecstasy of  CFL life.