week 10, lines/thoughts

If the Argos line goes to 3 at my book as it has in other books, I may take them, I am still considering.

Saturday dogs (versus the other commonly played days in the CFL)  are the worst days to play on, which may keep me off of them.  What's the problem with Saturdays?......  I don't know, but the data don't lie.

HD and not DIV  and week>9 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)<0

31-16 ATS (+4.74), 25-24 (+0.39) 

A non-divisional home dog after week 9 that has a less yards/pass differential than their present opponent has been 31-16 ATS.

Argonauts 

Food for thought.........Calgary is allowing  12.3 points/game on defense.

I queried how a team does that is a home dog and scores less than 20 points in that game...

HD and points<20

The numbers are not pretty.

18-71 ATS (-10.46) and 16-74 O/U (-9.48)

On the other hand how does a team do that scores >20 points as a home dog?

HD and points>20

110-40 ATS (+8.37) and 104-46 O/U (+6.20)

I have not delved into individual team scoring as a betting option and correlating them with game results, either ATS or totals.  In the first instance  a home dog scoring <20 points the results ATS are 80% AGAINST the home dog and 83.2% ON the UNDER.  

Makes one could  contemplate parlaying (multi-playing) the UNDER and an individual team's scoring output, as anything >73% gives us a +EV expectation when doing a two team parlay.  Granted, we are supposing a result that a team will score a certain amount of points.  But, basically all betting is basically a supposition, with differing percentages types of data, such as historical data or fundamental reasoning.

My book has a buy-out option....I've bought out of my Calgary/Saskatchewan UNDER play.

Remaining plays:

1)  Ottawa +6' (if this moves to 7 I'll put an additional unit on Ottawa)

2)  Ottawa/Winnipeg OVER 53'

Both good picks we agree on good luck indigo

22-7 Ottawa at half time.....they're dominating the game, but things change in a hurry in the CFL.  We'll see if we can't get the OVER by the end of the 3rd quarter.

OVER hits, 38-21 Ottawa, two minutes into the 4th.

1)  Winnipeg/Ottawa OVER 53'  winner

Ottawa +6' winner

Still on the fence about taking the Argos tomorrow versus the Lions, we'll see if the public moves the line in the next 18 hours to a more advantageous line.

Thanks for the well wishes, everyone.

Good on ya Dogbite...who do you have tomorrow?

My opinion Take BC -2.5, because Lulay has brought life and spirit to the team, they have a chance for the playoffs, Toronto playing 3rd string quarterback, probably had his best career game last week. Hes not young for a 3rd string

Alouettes 10 to 1... easy bet.  They won in Regina this year... they can do it in Edmonton, more often then 10% of the time.  Easy bet.

Plays:

1)  Alouettes +18'

A head versus heart play.  All the data has the Alouettes covering this with its huge line....still without a quarterback this is difficult to pull the trigger.  My left brain usually rules my right, so I'm  taking them, despite my misgivings.  On a confidence scale I rate this as a 3/10 whereas my Ottawa play was about a 9/10.

2)  Toronto +2'

Toronto falls into the same set of parameters that Ottawa did yesterday, so again past history supports the play.  I wanted my bookie to cooperate with me and bring this line to 3, but they were uncooperative as bookies often are.  I dislike going against Travis Lulay and when the announcing team last week went into detail about how when BC won the title a few years back in Lulay's MOP year  they started the season 2-5, it made me feel uneasy, as he and the Felines looked very good last week versus Edmonton.  Still I like the new quarterback at Toronto as he looks like a quarterback that can inspire his team, and leadership is a hugely underrated ability.

Home non-divisional favorites have won by >18 points 64 out of 274 times, or 23.3% of the time and if the line was greater than -10 they won 10 out of 34 times.

Adding:

5)  UNDER 51 Eskimos/Alouettes

6)  UNDER 50'  Argonauts/Lions

to my previous plays

4)  Argos +2'

3)  Alouettes +18'

2)  Redblacks +6' winner

1)  Redblacks OVER 53' winner

Home non-divisional favorites have won by >18 points 64 out of 274 times, or 23.3% of the time and if the line was greater than -10 they won 10 out of 34 times

should read "won by >18 points 10 out of 34 times."

Argos somehow get the win and the game falls UNDER....maybe  God answers prayers after all.

1)  Redblacks +6' winner

2)  Redblacks/Bombers OVER 53' winner

3)  Argos +2' winner

4)  Argos UNDER 50' winner

5)  Alouettes +18'

6)  Alouettes/Eskimos UNDER 51

A very good article on the history of online betting, and the evolution  of the industry is listed below.  With the beginning of legalized betting in the USA, the online offshore books will evolve and will still attract customers with better deals than the public will get with what the the USA legal market will offer, which  may or may not keep them in business.  The question will become,

"Should I deal with an overseas sportsbook that charges me -105 on my bets that could limit me,  stiff me or come up with a con not to pay me/accept my action, or will I go with a local book that is overseen by the government and will have to pay me, even though they are charging me -110 (or more)?"

At one time in my betting career I bet on the Spurs to win the NBA title, over the phone to Centrebet, worth about 9,000 dollars to me at the time.  They did win the title and when I went to my online account to verify the amount, the bet was not there, it hadn't been recorded.  Obviously very upset about this I called the bookmaker up.  Because the book was regulated by the government, they were mandated by their government's rules to have a phone record of every wager.

There question to me was...."when did you place the wager?" 

Well, how many of us keep an actual logbook of the exact time of each bet?  Fortunately, I had deposited money into my account to fund the bet, and I could pretty much pinpoint the time of the wager by the time of the deposit into my account. 

They (Centrebet) said they had phone records of all bets and within a day the correct funds were in my account,.....afterwards, no emails to me like "sorry", or anything like that, as is the way of many Aussie books.   And because it was a nominally large amount, they then limited me and then banned me from betting anything over 50 bucks.  Lovely, no?

But, to look at it another way, what if my bet had gone to an unregulated book?  Chances are I never would have received my money and the more likely answer would have been,

"Sorry, (when they weren't really sorry at all) but we have no record of that bet ever being placed."

https://www.onlinebetting.com/fade-the-public/

As we have seen in retail in the USA, where the superstores like Walmart dominate because they offer superior pricing or Amazone, there will come a time when this happens in the legal betting market.  The British bookmakers who have a habit of being extremely terrible at customer service, giving terrible pricing and limiting winning bettors will go by the wayside, beaten by books that are good at customer service and offer less vigorish, similar to what pinnacle is.  

I predict in the future that exchanges will dominate that operate just like a stock exchange, as they can offer less of a commission to place a bet.  Those  cooperate bigwigs that are operating  a site will see that they have no inherent risk in an exchange as there can be no uneven action on a game, for every 50,000 dollars bet on one side, there must be 50,000 dollars bet on the opposite side for a bet to take place.  Matchbook is an example where this works well and the commission is 2%, each way.

The only risk is this not happening is this,......if the bookmakers get into the decision makers pockets and make them resistant to making it a free market, then competition will be stifled and like all monopolies, the public will not get the best pricing.  I live in a country where at one time the government half owned the one and only national telephone company.   Calling overseas cost $1.00/minute.  Competition in the form of other privately owned telcos were eventually brought in, and guess what?   Calls to overseas within 20 years dropped to 10% of what they once were.  Right now, there is really only one cable/satellite television option here, and of course we pay more here for satellite television than any country in the world.

I would hope that decision makers have consulted actual bettors to get their concerns about the negative tactics bookmakers have attempted in the past, though maybe that is pie in the sky thinking.  One can only hope.

Almost half-time of the Montreal game, Edmonton driving, 10 point game (they kicked a field goal to make it 27-14).

Besides the Montreal receivers not being able to catch the ball for the second straight week, and the secondary being terrible, they look like a bunch of knuckleheads, stupid ghetto-type penalties like trash talking, throwing the ball at their opponent, jousting with their opponent, etc.  

I cut guys like that immediately and I get some receivers next year.

The lines look good for the Alouettes and their new quarterback looks good too.  One year of growing pains this year and I think there are possibilities for the Alouettes, there's light at the end of the tunnel after being no-hopers for a few years.  Sherman has a history of being an offensive line coach, so you'd expect that they would play well there.

Wow, if he lost the ball at the goal line and fumbled at the goal isn't that a touchback?

5)  Montreal UNDER 51 loser

The Als get the cover, yes, amazing to contemplate.  

6)  Alouettes +18' winner

5)  Alouettes/Eskimos UNDER 51 loser

4)  Argos +2' winner

3)  Argos UNDER 50' winner

2)  Ottawa OVER 53' winner

1)  Ottawa +6' winner

STD 27-15 ATS

Early Indigo lines for week 11.......

Hamilton -3  Edmonton  53'

Montreal +3 Toronto 53

Calgary -7   Winnipeg 51

BC        +2' Saskatchewan

No plays on the Sasquatch/Calgary game....see ya next time.

keep killing it