Ottawa's passing game looks awesome, besides Calgary, no one has stopped them, except for themselves. Teams like Winnipeg and Edmonton's defenses will be exposed this season for what they are, mediocre defenses.
Montreal is setting a record for dropped passes in a two game span....the Montreal quarterbacking has not been their weakness lately, which is a surprise, obviously the defensive secondary and defensive schemes are REALLY bad, and they have their share of knuckleheads, which losing teams usually attract......taunting, throwing the ball at the other team, unsportsmanlike conduct and on and on. Let's hope they don't decide they want to acquire another knucklehead in Duron Carter as knuckleheadedness is contagious.
The two quarterbacks they now have will be the ones they should keep going forward. Cut Willy, Matthews, Schilz and all the other dead weight.
Toronto should be an interesting team going forward, Bethel-Thompson is a keeper and should be their quarterback for the next 10 years. It'll be interesting to see how he does on the road, we'll see if they can cover roadies as big dogs.
Hamilton -3 Edmonton 53'
Montreal +3 Toronto 53
Calgary -7' Winnipeg 51
BC +2' Saskatchewan 53
Road underdogs off a home favorite loss have been 66-38 ATS, 44-21 in divisional games.Blue Bombers depending on how masochistic one is about fading the Stampeders.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
STD 27-15 ATS
Ottawa's passing game looks awesome, besides Calgary, no one has stopped them, except for themselves. Teams like Winnipeg and Edmonton's defenses will be exposed this season for what they are, mediocre defenses.
Montreal is setting a record for dropped passes in a two game span....the Montreal quarterbacking has not been their weakness lately, which is a surprise, obviously the defensive secondary and defensive schemes are REALLY bad, and they have their share of knuckleheads, which losing teams usually attract......taunting, throwing the ball at the other team, unsportsmanlike conduct and on and on. Let's hope they don't decide they want to acquire another knucklehead in Duron Carter as knuckleheadedness is contagious.
The two quarterbacks they now have will be the ones they should keep going forward. Cut Willy, Matthews, Schilz and all the other dead weight.
Toronto should be an interesting team going forward, Bethel-Thompson is a keeper and should be their quarterback for the next 10 years. It'll be interesting to see how he does on the road, we'll see if they can cover roadies as big dogs.
Hamilton -3 Edmonton 53'
Montreal +3 Toronto 53
Calgary -7' Winnipeg 51
BC +2' Saskatchewan 53
Road underdogs off a home favorite loss have been 66-38 ATS, 44-21 in divisional games.Blue Bombers depending on how masochistic one is about fading the Stampeders.
Ottawa has been a cash cow. Had them 200 plus 3 times? 2 for sure. had them with the over Friday night for a 5 + to 1 shot. Bet them ingame vs Hamilton for 3-1. In that range. I love that controlled passing game with Sinopolli and Ellingson. If Montreal is only +3? I may open up the VAULT!
Ottawa has been a cash cow. Had them 200 plus 3 times? 2 for sure. had them with the over Friday night for a 5 + to 1 shot. Bet them ingame vs Hamilton for 3-1. In that range. I love that controlled passing game with Sinopolli and Ellingson. If Montreal is only +3? I may open up the VAULT!
Bethel-Thompson is a keeper. I started a thread in regards to Pipkin. Not to reiterate.....BUT! The athleticism jumped off the page. Loved the deep ball. Leadership. Now its 1 game. But he had NO help. Running for his life. Receivers were dreadful. As you said. Listen. Als are the most undisciplined team in the history of football. Sherman has to go. NOW. Thats me being polite!
Bethel-Thompson is a keeper. I started a thread in regards to Pipkin. Not to reiterate.....BUT! The athleticism jumped off the page. Loved the deep ball. Leadership. Now its 1 game. But he had NO help. Running for his life. Receivers were dreadful. As you said. Listen. Als are the most undisciplined team in the history of football. Sherman has to go. NOW. Thats me being polite!
Thanks for the feedback guys....writing this stuff up is fun for me, and I've found that getting stuff down in black and white benefits my handicapping, crystallizes my thoughts, etc., and of course winning is the most fun of all.
I have found that making your own line is also good for one's handicapping before you see what the linemaker has put out. Those divergences of mine to what the bookies have, and betting against them have been profitable this season. If your lines are making money, it means you're onto a good thing and your methodology is sound.
We as bettors should look at the dilemma a bookmaker has, which is his inclination to have balanced action as our advantage.
Another advantage we can have is if we can delete what happened from last week's game from our memory banks, we'll win more than we'll lose as bookies and the public have very short memories and one of the biggest axioms in our business is that things never stay the same.
Two interesting stats that tend to revert to the mean are yards/pass attempt and turnovers....both of those advantages in a game are high predictors of winning and covering football games. However they are regression statistics, what happened before will often go the opposite way going forward, not always, but over 55% of the time in the CFL.
I may start making lines two weeks in advance to see what changes happen from last week's game.
Thanks for the feedback guys....writing this stuff up is fun for me, and I've found that getting stuff down in black and white benefits my handicapping, crystallizes my thoughts, etc., and of course winning is the most fun of all.
I have found that making your own line is also good for one's handicapping before you see what the linemaker has put out. Those divergences of mine to what the bookies have, and betting against them have been profitable this season. If your lines are making money, it means you're onto a good thing and your methodology is sound.
We as bettors should look at the dilemma a bookmaker has, which is his inclination to have balanced action as our advantage.
Another advantage we can have is if we can delete what happened from last week's game from our memory banks, we'll win more than we'll lose as bookies and the public have very short memories and one of the biggest axioms in our business is that things never stay the same.
Two interesting stats that tend to revert to the mean are yards/pass attempt and turnovers....both of those advantages in a game are high predictors of winning and covering football games. However they are regression statistics, what happened before will often go the opposite way going forward, not always, but over 55% of the time in the CFL.
I may start making lines two weeks in advance to see what changes happen from last week's game.
Yhe Greek once again has the earliest lines up...last week when the Greek posted the other sportsbooks all put up the same numbers as they did.
Indigo numbers in parentheses.
1) Hamilton +1 (-3) Edmonton 57' (53')
2) Montreal +6 (+3) Toronto 51 (53)
3) Calgary -9 (-7) Winnipeg 53 (51)
4) BC -3 (+2') Saskatchewan 52 (53)
Wow! always interesting to see what's inside the mind of a bookmaker. The most obvious points of difference is BC NOT being a home underdog and Hamilton NOT being a home favorite versus the Lions. There's also a 4' point difference between an Indigo total and the bookie's total in the Esk/Cat game.
Yhe Greek once again has the earliest lines up...last week when the Greek posted the other sportsbooks all put up the same numbers as they did.
Indigo numbers in parentheses.
1) Hamilton +1 (-3) Edmonton 57' (53')
2) Montreal +6 (+3) Toronto 51 (53)
3) Calgary -9 (-7) Winnipeg 53 (51)
4) BC -3 (+2') Saskatchewan 52 (53)
Wow! always interesting to see what's inside the mind of a bookmaker. The most obvious points of difference is BC NOT being a home underdog and Hamilton NOT being a home favorite versus the Lions. There's also a 4' point difference between an Indigo total and the bookie's total in the Esk/Cat game.
A couple of plays I am loving below. Loving doesn't mean money in my pocket as often the plays that I hate are more successful. Case in point, last week when I took the Alouettes +18'. Often the ones you hate that at the last minute you play hit a higher percentage.
Plays:
1) Hamilton +100
2) Sasquatches +120
3) Stampeders/Blue Bombers UNDER 53
4) Argonauts/Alouettes OVER 51
I had Hamilton being 3 point favorites, and I had the Sasquatches being 2.5 point favorites. Sasquatches, along with Ottawa are in the top 3 teams in the league along with you know who. I have Hamilton also in a 65% query with over 170 plays in it.
Stamps gave up >35 points last game, totally uncharacteristic of them. When teams are off a home favorite loss as the Bombers are, their next game as a road divisional favorite tends to go UNDER.
p:HFL and AD and op:AFL and tA(W)<oA(W) and DIV
And finally, do I think that Montreal can score some points? Yes, I think they can get to 20 points and Toronto can score >20 with their eyes wide shut against the Alouettes defense. When both teams score 20 points the OVER hits greater than 75% of the time....last week's Toronto/BC game being a notable exception.
All the best, chime in with your learned opinions of who you're loving and those you're hating. Ah, if love meant success what a world it would be!
A couple of plays I am loving below. Loving doesn't mean money in my pocket as often the plays that I hate are more successful. Case in point, last week when I took the Alouettes +18'. Often the ones you hate that at the last minute you play hit a higher percentage.
Plays:
1) Hamilton +100
2) Sasquatches +120
3) Stampeders/Blue Bombers UNDER 53
4) Argonauts/Alouettes OVER 51
I had Hamilton being 3 point favorites, and I had the Sasquatches being 2.5 point favorites. Sasquatches, along with Ottawa are in the top 3 teams in the league along with you know who. I have Hamilton also in a 65% query with over 170 plays in it.
Stamps gave up >35 points last game, totally uncharacteristic of them. When teams are off a home favorite loss as the Bombers are, their next game as a road divisional favorite tends to go UNDER.
p:HFL and AD and op:AFL and tA(W)<oA(W) and DIV
And finally, do I think that Montreal can score some points? Yes, I think they can get to 20 points and Toronto can score >20 with their eyes wide shut against the Alouettes defense. When both teams score 20 points the OVER hits greater than 75% of the time....last week's Toronto/BC game being a notable exception.
All the best, chime in with your learned opinions of who you're loving and those you're hating. Ah, if love meant success what a world it would be!
"Stamps gave up >35 points last game, totally uncharacteristic of them. When teams are off a home favorite loss as the Bombers are, their next game as a road divisionalfavorite tends to go UNDER."
Correction: road divisional dog
You know what I meant.
"Stamps gave up >35 points last game, totally uncharacteristic of them. When teams are off a home favorite loss as the Bombers are, their next game as a road divisionalfavorite tends to go UNDER."
The default totals play in the CFL is UNDER, and in looking at the public's betting percentages in the KOC contest, week after week the majority play OVERs. When I play totals, which is about half of my overall plays, 75% of them will be UNDER in the CFL, I know I'll have a slight edge and a bankroll is built on betting when you have a small edge. Approximately 54% of the games in the CFL during the regular season go UNDER, which is significant for 800+ games.
Because analysis and research is my thing, I delve into past history to see if there are any times where there might be exceptions to the rule.
We'll look at specific days of the week now, we have two divisional matchups on Saturday where the road team is a dog....the Bombers @Calgary and Saskatchewan @BC.
The past history? Road dogs have been 60-47 ATS and 45-66 O/U in those games on Saturdays, so there is no exception to the rule there, Saturdays tend to favor the away underdog and the UNDER. What if it doesn't make sense? Why should a day of the week matter? One of the biggest hurdles for bettors is that A LOT of what happens doesn't make sense, which is why Vegas has multimillion dollar casinos and we don't live in mansions. Why does the day of the week matter? I don't know. Perhaps it is a random variable, but me, I don't like to think so, and I don't like going against something that has generated 100+ games in a database, one is putting themselves at a disadvantage, a slight one, by playing the opposite way, which is favorites and OVERs.
I don't go into team tendencies too much...... you'll see I handicap league situations and comparing my line to the bookmaker's. That is 80% of how I make a decision to make a play.....intuition is a small part, probably much less than what most bettors use, if I have a bad feeling about a game, I MAY stay off of it. But, last week I hated a game but the numbers were sound and I played it, an away underdog, thinking it would likely lose... and fortunately it didn't and we got the money.
Adding:
5) BC/Saskatchewan UNDER 52
The default totals play in the CFL is UNDER, and in looking at the public's betting percentages in the KOC contest, week after week the majority play OVERs. When I play totals, which is about half of my overall plays, 75% of them will be UNDER in the CFL, I know I'll have a slight edge and a bankroll is built on betting when you have a small edge. Approximately 54% of the games in the CFL during the regular season go UNDER, which is significant for 800+ games.
Because analysis and research is my thing, I delve into past history to see if there are any times where there might be exceptions to the rule.
We'll look at specific days of the week now, we have two divisional matchups on Saturday where the road team is a dog....the Bombers @Calgary and Saskatchewan @BC.
The past history? Road dogs have been 60-47 ATS and 45-66 O/U in those games on Saturdays, so there is no exception to the rule there, Saturdays tend to favor the away underdog and the UNDER. What if it doesn't make sense? Why should a day of the week matter? One of the biggest hurdles for bettors is that A LOT of what happens doesn't make sense, which is why Vegas has multimillion dollar casinos and we don't live in mansions. Why does the day of the week matter? I don't know. Perhaps it is a random variable, but me, I don't like to think so, and I don't like going against something that has generated 100+ games in a database, one is putting themselves at a disadvantage, a slight one, by playing the opposite way, which is favorites and OVERs.
I don't go into team tendencies too much...... you'll see I handicap league situations and comparing my line to the bookmaker's. That is 80% of how I make a decision to make a play.....intuition is a small part, probably much less than what most bettors use, if I have a bad feeling about a game, I MAY stay off of it. But, last week I hated a game but the numbers were sound and I played it, an away underdog, thinking it would likely lose... and fortunately it didn't and we got the money.
If your track record over 100+ games is making money then your methodology is sound (and yes you should be keeping track of how you are doing) and if it isn't, change something, which will give you the following options:
a) quit betting
b) limit your plays to something where you are having fun, and losing isn't hurting your life
c) find someone who is a winner and follow their plays
d) change your decision making process, find out what has caused losses, what type of bet is it that is costing you money...there is an individual in another forum that is losing a lot because he parlays, sometimes 6 team parlays. Often he'll talk about how he won every game but the last game cost him untold amounts of money because the coach made the wrong decision, the player messed up, etc. Going 5-1 on six picks and having a losing day is about as heartbreaking as one can have in betting. This obsession, hobby or whatever you wish to call it is heartbreaking enough. And we will all make mistakes even though we rationally know what is the correct move and what isn't. We wish to limit those to very rare occasions or very small plays.....maybe allow yourself one "fun" bet a weekend when your stake in that game where you deviate from a winning strategy for say 1/10 the amount of a normal bet. Eliminate the losing parts of your game.
I am a terrible NBA bettor and have paid the price for that. I don't bet the sport much now, and when I do bet it, I lose, almost every year. But, I rarely bet often or much,...the playoffs this year got me, as it often does, and I should eliminate it from my game and I actually hate the NBA, so it makes no sense that I am betting it, so I am preaching to myself here as much as to anyone reading this thread. We'll see if I do so in the future. Bet the sport that you love, if you make money at it....if you lose betting half-times or in-game betting then eliminate it. Find out by record keeping, what you win at and stay with that. Bet pizza money, or less on anything else, or better yet, take your wife/girlfriend out instead.
If your track record over 100+ games is making money then your methodology is sound (and yes you should be keeping track of how you are doing) and if it isn't, change something, which will give you the following options:
a) quit betting
b) limit your plays to something where you are having fun, and losing isn't hurting your life
c) find someone who is a winner and follow their plays
d) change your decision making process, find out what has caused losses, what type of bet is it that is costing you money...there is an individual in another forum that is losing a lot because he parlays, sometimes 6 team parlays. Often he'll talk about how he won every game but the last game cost him untold amounts of money because the coach made the wrong decision, the player messed up, etc. Going 5-1 on six picks and having a losing day is about as heartbreaking as one can have in betting. This obsession, hobby or whatever you wish to call it is heartbreaking enough. And we will all make mistakes even though we rationally know what is the correct move and what isn't. We wish to limit those to very rare occasions or very small plays.....maybe allow yourself one "fun" bet a weekend when your stake in that game where you deviate from a winning strategy for say 1/10 the amount of a normal bet. Eliminate the losing parts of your game.
I am a terrible NBA bettor and have paid the price for that. I don't bet the sport much now, and when I do bet it, I lose, almost every year. But, I rarely bet often or much,...the playoffs this year got me, as it often does, and I should eliminate it from my game and I actually hate the NBA, so it makes no sense that I am betting it, so I am preaching to myself here as much as to anyone reading this thread. We'll see if I do so in the future. Bet the sport that you love, if you make money at it....if you lose betting half-times or in-game betting then eliminate it. Find out by record keeping, what you win at and stay with that. Bet pizza money, or less on anything else, or better yet, take your wife/girlfriend out instead.
Those codes work for the NFL, NCAA football and the CFL.
"P" means previous matchup between the team (the Eskimos) and the present opponent they are playing this week. It means that in their previous game against the same team they lost, so the query is finding out how the Eskimos do in a revenge situation.
Hi Hoody,
P:L and team=Eskimos
Have you read the query manual in the killersports website?
Those codes work for the NFL, NCAA football and the CFL.
"P" means previous matchup between the team (the Eskimos) and the present opponent they are playing this week. It means that in their previous game against the same team they lost, so the query is finding out how the Eskimos do in a revenge situation.
Home teams in a non-divisional game that score >20 points have gone 174-117 (+5.58), ATS, covering 59.8% of the time. The OVER is 169-122 O/U (+3.39) covering 58.1% of the time. I expect the Tiger Cats to score over 20 points versus the Edmonton defence.
I don't wish to play the total in this game as there is some conflicting data.
Home teams in a non-divisional game that score >20 points have gone 174-117 (+5.58), ATS, covering 59.8% of the time. The OVER is 169-122 O/U (+3.39) covering 58.1% of the time. I expect the Tiger Cats to score over 20 points versus the Edmonton defence.
I don't wish to play the total in this game as there is some conflicting data.
I understand that but is there a way to make it against the TigerCats , this way shows 50-53 but that's means that's there record every time there in that situation right?
I understand that but is there a way to make it against the TigerCats , this way shows 50-53 but that's means that's there record every time there in that situation right?
Hoody, Man get specific with your questions...this is about the 5th time you have asked me to do a query and you haven't told me exactly what you want which then requires numerous back and forth messages. Make a coherent sentence with all the parameters you want.....and, READ THE USER'S MANUAL.
P:L and team=Eskimos and o:team=Tiger Cats
Hoody, Man get specific with your questions...this is about the 5th time you have asked me to do a query and you haven't told me exactly what you want which then requires numerous back and forth messages. Make a coherent sentence with all the parameters you want.....and, READ THE USER'S MANUAL.
3-12 ATS (-8.33) and 6-9 straight up (-2.53) versus Lions
Lions won their last couple of home games as dogs and now become favorites to one of the top 3 teams in the league.
Teams with the yards/pass attempt differential advantage that are home favorites have been 157-197-9, 44.1%
tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0 and HF favors going against the Lions, Stamps and Cats.
If this home favorite has a better won/loss record than their opponent, and its a divisional game this drops to 48-80 ATS.
tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0 and HF and DIV and tA(W)>oA(W)
versus the Stamps
If the superior home favorite in yards/pass is a home favorite, its a divisional game AND their opponent is off a home favorite loss, this drops to 6-18 ATS and 9-15 straight up.
tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0 and HF and DIV and tA(W)>oA(W) and op:HFL
versus the Stamps
.
Because the other two games the winning percentage of the home favorites is the same or less than their opponent it is about a break even propostion, so in the Lions' and the Tiger Cats' cases, there is no advantage for or against them in this scenario.
Play:
6) Blue Bombers +8'
Can the Stamps' demolition crew be derailed two games in a row? We'll see.
pp:HDW and p:AL and HF
3-12 ATS (-8.33) and 6-9 straight up (-2.53) versus Lions
Lions won their last couple of home games as dogs and now become favorites to one of the top 3 teams in the league.
Teams with the yards/pass attempt differential advantage that are home favorites have been 157-197-9, 44.1%
tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0 and HF favors going against the Lions, Stamps and Cats.
If this home favorite has a better won/loss record than their opponent, and its a divisional game this drops to 48-80 ATS.
tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0 and HF and DIV and tA(W)>oA(W)
versus the Stamps
If the superior home favorite in yards/pass is a home favorite, its a divisional game AND their opponent is off a home favorite loss, this drops to 6-18 ATS and 9-15 straight up.
tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0 and HF and DIV and tA(W)>oA(W) and op:HFL
versus the Stamps
.
Because the other two games the winning percentage of the home favorites is the same or less than their opponent it is about a break even propostion, so in the Lions' and the Tiger Cats' cases, there is no advantage for or against them in this scenario.
Play:
6) Blue Bombers +8'
Can the Stamps' demolition crew be derailed two games in a row? We'll see.
That should be it for the week,.....if, in a moment of temporary insanity I take the side of the Toronto/Montreal game, readers will know to lock their doors and call the police.
All of my plays for the week are listed below:
1) Hamilton +100 (If this gets to Edmonton +3 at plus money, I may consider attempting a middle in this game or I may just take the moneyline on Edmonton)
2) Saskatchewan +120 the line has moved against me, one of two times this week I have been disadvantaged by playing the game early
3) Winnipeg +8'
4) Calgary/Winny UNDER 53
5) BC/Sasquatches UNDER 52
6) Montreal/Toronto OVER 51
That should be it for the week,.....if, in a moment of temporary insanity I take the side of the Toronto/Montreal game, readers will know to lock their doors and call the police.
All of my plays for the week are listed below:
1) Hamilton +100 (If this gets to Edmonton +3 at plus money, I may consider attempting a middle in this game or I may just take the moneyline on Edmonton)
2) Saskatchewan +120 the line has moved against me, one of two times this week I have been disadvantaged by playing the game early
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