🍀🍀🍀 NCAA MEN's: 201 - 103 ... +75.96u

@fubah2

Which team you got in this game? 

@Europa

 Nobody.   Pure coin-flipper...  But fun to watch with pizza and beer!

Cool, I like Houston but no bets. 

2025 MENS YTD: 168 - 91    64.9% ... juice from losses only -12136

*2025 posted Best Bets:
      73 - 30   70.9% ...juice from 30 losses is -4477

             Posted *BBs  with heavy juice -200 and up:
                  25 - 5    83.3% (5 losers were: -200; -260; -250; -240; -235)

@fubah2

Coin flipper game, you've called it. Good call. 

.

My NCAA LEANS, past 19 days:

Mar 20:   4 - 1
Mar 21:   4 - 0
Mar 22:   5 - 1
Mar 23:   7 - 3
Mar 24:   1 - 0     WNCAA, as requested
Mar 25:   2 - 0     WNCAA
Mar 26:   2 - 1
Mar 27:   2 - 0     (1 - 0 WNCAA)
Mar 28:   3 - 0     (1 - 0 WNCAA)
Mar 31:   3 - 1     (2 - 1 WNCAA)
Apr 04:   1 - 0     (1 - 0 WNCAA)
Apr 05:   1 - 1     (1 - 0 WNCAA)   
---------------

  = 35 - 8      81.4% 
.

@Europa

 Thanks!  And the best part is, I still have 3 beers left!!!

Excellent Record!! Congrats for a winning season.. Not trying to intrude but just wanted to know whether you work with a Model/System or hunch while handicapping.. Thanks

@Europa

 Good  PASS  by you, my friend, from your initial thoughts of Houston!

@JASON3958

  Hi. Welcome to my thread!

To your Q, neither, as I come to believe what those terms mean.

Definitely not by "hunch" or "gut feel" ....that is a ticket to Loserville!

I would call mine a "method" (not a model or system, per se) which varies among my sports. My methods in each sport revolve around assessing team performances to date, accounting for games involving KEY injuries to either team, luck breaks, "one-offs,"  the margin ov victories or losses and against what calibre of teams they achieved it, and the pertinent venue their stats-performance was achieved.

@fubah2

 Thanks for that info..Quite a herculean task I must say with thousands of game every season.All the best for next season!! Cheers

@JASON3958

You're welcome    

I am able to trim the schedule for bets down considerably by focusing on which team will win the game outright - then decide if the corresponding price (juice) is worth the risk based on probabilities.  In CBK I almost always skip over any games with a double-digit spread, which effectively cuts the schedule in half in both men's and women's. Also I don't bother with "totals" and prop bets, as I found that the extra time that entailed led directly to fatigue - which ultimately leads to increasing errors causing losses and/or rushing my handicapping (or skipping parts of my methods)  to escape fatigue - and THAT led to increasing losses.

 In effect, "less is MORE!" 

2025 MENS YTD: 168 - 91    64.9% ... juice from losses only -12136

2025 posted *Best Bets:
      73 - 30   70.9% ...juice from 30 losses is -4477

             Posted *BBs  with heavy juice -200 and up:
                  25 - 5    83.3% (5 losers were: -200; -260; -250; -240; -235)

@fubah2

 You’re approach to handicapping is unique, and has opened my eyes to new strategies.  Most importantly that it’s ok to lay a large ML -200 or above as long as it hits.  83%  

What’s important in your strategy which is very intriguing to me is the confidence to lay large vig…and this requires a supportive bankroll to move on these.  also important to note this is not for short term day to day or volume cappers. 

But if you take this hobby serious or wager professionally, you absolutely need to think long term in your approach as you do King FUB.  Having the confidence to lose half your roll, and yet stay frugal enough to pass on days without value is key.  I’ve also witnessed the power of your live betting!  How did we survive before the recent new live options! Seems like a distant past but not long ago.  

what I personally began to do per your capping is if I support Team A at -4…. I’ll wait for a -2 or better. Waiting for the opportunity to catch a better line live under the proper conditions, and if not, wisely pass the day and look for the next.  It worked for me this past NCAAB season often, and I really can’t wait to try this tactic again.  In a game of runs and momentum like college hoops, live betting makes tremendous sense.  Passing on games also makes tremendous sense.  With lines tight, why not get that 2+pt advantage after a slow start? 

Please keep sharing your insights, we are all fortunate to have them.  Regards and Respect 

Jwoods