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🔴🥳🍀🥂.. 98 - 41 on NCAA bets since post-season play began March 05 🥳

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Legend
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Posted: #676

Since post-season play first began (March 05)

 

Only MEN's:  106 - 50     an_2drinks (45 - 13 *Best Bets)

 

                                                 * A similar term for *Best Bets is POD

 
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Posted: #677

Fubah's NCAA WOMEN's bets YTD: 

 

    2024 WNCAA:  55 - 21      (30 - 9  *Best Bets)


                2023 WNCAA:      53 - 28        (31 - 13 *Best Bets)
                2022 WNCAA:    125 - 83        (59 - 35 *Best Bets)

 

                           *a similar term for *Best Bets could be POD

 
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Posted: #678

peace_5peaceclovercloverclover

Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
 
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Posted: #679

Good luck tonight! I’m sticking with my lean to Iowa women’s! clover

 
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Posted: #680

Quote Originally Posted by TheBigC23:

Good luck tonight! I’m sticking with my lean to Iowa women’s!

YES. peace_5  Lean to Hawkeyes for sure.... an_cheers

 

For me, LEANING means I favor their chances but holding off on making a bet until ingame conditions suggest a solid bet.  For example in game 1 tonight, I definitely LEAN to LADY Gamecocks to win su, but the ML is far too high at -950 so I waive on that until they might possibly fall behind on a fortuitous NC State run at some point EARLY in the game, which of course drops the ML price on S.Carolina......IF that run never occurs and SC remains a heavy moneyline fav, then NO BET.

For game two, I am holding off in this case because it's a close call - and as such I want to see how the game proceeds (both team's performances) - looking for clues toward the eventual SU winner.

Early foul trouble is a significant factor.  Likewise hot shooting -- mostly because  HOT SHOOTING start to a game very rarely lasts and those numbers typically regress down toward a mean DURING the game....which is why I LOVE to see hot shooting runs **against** the team I am favoring!  I can get them for a bargain then (live bets) knowing that the game will even out and my team is going to stage a comeback (usually, but not always)

 

 
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Posted: #681

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by TheBigC23: Good luck tonight! I’m sticking with my lean to Iowa women’s! YES.   Lean to Hawkeyes for sure....   For me, LEANING means I favor their chances but holding off on making a bet until ingame conditions suggest a solid bet.  For example in game 1 tonight, I definitely LEAN to LADY Gamecocks to win su, but the ML is far too high at -950 so I waive on that until they might possibly fall behind on a fortuitous NC State run at some point EARLY in the game, which of course drops the ML price on S.Carolina......IF that run never occurs and SC remains a heavy moneyline fav, then NO BET. For game two, I am holding off in this case because it's a close call - and as such I want to see how the game proceeds (both team's performances) - looking for clues toward the eventual SU winner. Early foul trouble is a significant factor.  Likewise hot shooting -- mostly because  HOT SHOOTING start to a game very rarely lasts and those numbers typically regress down toward a mean DURING the game....which is why I LOVE to see hot shooting runs **against** the team I am favoring!  I can get them for a bargain then (live bets) knowing that the game will even out and my team is going to stage a comeback (usually, but not always)

I see in the 1stQ that NC state has edged ahead from a tie game to a 12 - 9 lead....timeout....and now the moneyline on SC is down to -500/-550 (your mileage may vary)....While I favor the best team in WNCAA and am looking to bet them ML,  -500 is still far too much of a risk in this situation.... Now if NCState comes out of the timeout and hits a 3 or otherwise increase their lead to 6 + points, THEN that ML will drop into my range!

 
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Posted: #682

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by TheBigC23: Good luck tonight! I’m sticking with my lean to Iowa women’s! YES.   Lean to Hawkeyes for sure....   For me, LEANING means I favor their chances but holding off on making a bet until ingame conditions suggest a solid bet.  For example in game 1 tonight, I definitely LEAN to LADY Gamecocks to win su, but the ML is far too high at -950 so I waive on that until they might possibly fall behind on a fortuitous NC State run at some point EARLY in the game, which of course drops the ML price on S.Carolina......IF that run never occurs and SC remains a heavy moneyline fav, then NO BET. For game two, I am holding off in this case because it's a close call - and as such I want to see how the game proceeds (both team's performances) - looking for clues toward the eventual SU winner. Early foul trouble is a significant factor.  Likewise hot shooting -- mostly because  HOT SHOOTING start to a game very rarely lasts and those numbers typically regress down toward a mean DURING the game....which is why I LOVE to see hot shooting runs **against** the team I am favoring!  I can get them for a bargain then (live bets) knowing that the game will even out and my team is going to stage a comeback (usually, but not always) I see in the 1stQ that NC state has edged ahead from a tie game to a 12 - 9 lead....timeout....and now the moneyline on SC is down to -500/-550 (your mileage may vary)....While I favor the best team in WNCAA and am looking to bet them ML,  -500 is still far too much of a risk in this situation.... Now if NCState comes out of the timeout and hits a 3 or otherwise increase their lead to 6 + points, THEN that ML will drop into my range!

Here's another situation where the ML drops:  TIED at end of 1stQ at 16.....now the heavy -950 ml has dropped to -700....still overpriced and too high of course (*they are not 7 X more likely to win SU!).....but as an close game proceeds, the ML keeps dropping for my choice.

The counter-argument is the opp is proving to be tougher than first thought, right?  Perhaps.  But the good teams don't win all their games by racing out to a lead and never looking back....So in those cases I am looking for clues in the boxscore metrics - particularly FOULS, FT shooting/volume, and of course 3's!!

 
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Posted: #683

Oh-BOY an_speechless  Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!!

She is the difference maker!  Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls.  She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!! an_getaway

 

*IF* she's unable to return  AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU!

 
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Posted: #684

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Oh-BOY   Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker!  Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls.  She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!!   *IF* she's unable to return  AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU!

HT 32 - 31 Sc.  ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H

 
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Posted: #685

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY   Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker!  Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls.  She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!!   *IF* she's unable to return  AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc.  ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H

Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 quiet

Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC)  the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs  IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts....

 
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Posted: #686

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY   Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker!  Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls.  She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!!   *IF* she's unable to return  AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc.  ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC)  the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs  IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts....

Yikes...SC hitting inside AND out, now lead by 15 and the moneyline mushrooms to -10,000  an_speechless

 
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Posted: #687

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY   Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker!  Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls.  She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!!   *IF* she's unable to return  AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc.  ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC)  the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs  IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts....

Yikes...SC hitting inside AND out, now lead by 15 and the moneyline mushrooms to -10,000

Late 3Q and 19 pt lead........at this point the game is out of reach for WolfPack but they could cover what is now a +20.5 ingame spread, esp considering I think SC is going to rest their 6'7" star center with the sore leg..... maybe.....

 
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Posted: #688

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY   Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker!  Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls.  She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!!   *IF* she's unable to return  AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc.  ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC)  the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs  IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts.... Yikes...SC hitting inside AND out, now lead by 15 and the moneyline mushrooms to -10,000 Late 3Q and 19 pt lead........at this point the game is out of reach for WolfPack but they could cover what is now a +20.5 ingame spread, esp considering I think SC is going to rest their 6'7" star center with the sore leg..... maybe.....

4Q intermission and it's  61 - 37 ...rout an_worship

Unless there is a serious injury, we are looking at this year's WNCAA champions win

 
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Posted: #689

Lady WolfPack down 24 pts  were getting +23.5 for the game but have hit a 3.....now down 21 with a +19.5 spread..... still thinking THAT line is doable, because I believe SC will rest people late

 
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Posted: #690

ML on Iowa in game 2 inching up a bit...

 
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Posted: #691

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oh-BOY   Lady Gamecocks all-star 6'7" center, Kamila Cardoso - INJURED!! She is the difference maker!  Really tough to stop inside and draws a lot of fouls.  She's in the locker room now on a bad wheel!!   *IF* she's unable to return  AND CONTINUE TO PLAY HER GOOD GAME, then this game is 50/50 for a winner SU! HT 32 - 31 Sc.  ML down to -600........Cardoso looks good to go for 2H Timeout mid 3Q and SC on a 16 - 5 run with Cardoso playing well....lead by 12 now and ML is -4000 Regardless who advances in games 2 (assuming they are healthy to face SC)  the Lady Gamecocks likely to be 6.5 to 7.5 pt favs  IF they prevail over NC State by at least 8 pts.... Yikes...SC hitting inside AND out, now lead by 15 and the moneyline mushrooms to -10,000 Late 3Q and 19 pt lead........at this point the game is out of reach for WolfPack but they could cover what is now a +20.5 ingame spread, esp considering I think SC is going to rest their 6'7" star center with the sore leg..... maybe..... 4Q intermission and it's  61 - 37 ...rout

 

Unless there is a serious injury, we are looking at this year's WNCAA champions

And sure enough....SC #2 star player Johnson, just tweaked her hamstring with 5 mins left... quiet

 
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Posted: #692

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Lady WolfPack down 24 pts  were getting +23.5 for the game but have hit a 3.....now down 21 with a +19.5 spread..... still thinking THAT line is doable, because I believe SC will rest people late

cool So, Lady Gamecocks do indeed now have 3 subs on the floor as predicted.... and with 1.5 to go their lead is down from 25 to 17

 
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Posted: #693

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Lady WolfPack down 24 pts  were getting +23.5 for the game but have hit a 3.....now down 21 with a +19.5 spread..... still thinking THAT line is doable, because I believe SC will rest people late

So, Lady Gamecocks do indeed now have 3 subs on the floor as predicted.... and with 1.5 to go their lead is down from 25 to 17

cool It took the final game shot to secure it, but a 19 point loss, means I got to pocket a small bet win of just $55, although I didn't bother posting it.

 

OK, hoops fans, onto the expected CLOSE game! an_dance Two superstars, only one winner.  Place your bets!

 
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Posted: #694

So after taking that *Best Bet loss on LADY Badgers,

 

UPDATED: Since starting this new thread March 18 ...

        NCAA MEN       19 - 2 *Best Bets!

     NCAA Women   19 - 2 *Best Bets!

---------------------------------------------------------

 an_2drinks        NCAA:  38 - 4 *Best Bets! 

 

                           * A similar term for *Best Bets is POD

 
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Posted: #695

Lady Badgers?  Wolfpack. 

 
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Posted: #696

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Lady WolfPack down 24 pts  were getting +23.5 for the game but have hit a 3.....now down 21 with a +19.5 spread..... still thinking THAT line is doable, because I believe SC will rest people late So, Lady Gamecocks do indeed now have 3 subs on the floor as predicted.... and with 1.5 to go their lead is down from 25 to 17 It took the final game shot to secure it, but a 19 point loss, means I got to pocket a small bet win of just $55, although I didn't bother posting it.  

 

OK, hoops fans, onto the expected CLOSE game! Two superstars, only one winner.  Place your bets!

OK, mid 1Q and UCONN is up 13 - 5 early energy.....IOWA can be had for +1.5  but I am not ready to grab yet as I want to see more of the play....

 
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Posted: #697

Quote Originally Posted by Skanless1:

Lady Badgers?  Wolfpack.

@Skanless1

 Hi! cool Sorry for the confusion I caused...I did not bet or post a bet on WolfPack (or game 2 yet either)  ....My recap above was meaning my posted *BB LOSER on Lady Badgers NIT homecourt loss from April 01, and I was updating my records  peace_5  

Enjoy tonight's game 2.......Hawkeyes down now in mid-1Q but they will come back...an_popcorn

 
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Posted: #698

@fubah2

 Oh. Got it. My bad. 

 
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Posted: #699

@fubah2

 Yep. I just live bet them at +3.5

 
 
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Posted: #700

Quote Originally Posted by Skanless1:

@fubah2  Yep. I just live bet them at +3.5
an_cheers

 

For me I wanna see how the 3's are dropping and in particular how key HAWKEYES are playing.....Iowa's lone starter bigman is Stuelke and she had an off game last time....I need to see her assert herself in the paint more to open up Hawkeyes ususally deadly shooting from the arc...or dump it into Stuelke (if she's playing well!)

 

IOWA has a LOT of early turnovers...an_speechless

 

Concern right now is UCONN starter Muhl may be playing hurt...

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