Still no *Best Bets on the horizon yet, but if I do it will likely be during LIVE ACTION betting.
My method is to look for my pregame choice to be down a bit so I can get a better ML price and then *ONLY* if the boxscore metrics are appealing enough to suggest a comeback is probable.
*Best Bets so far: 64 - 23 (73.5%)
marquette making it look easy
I give Marquette the edge here but will likely look for a cheap line or even +pts in the early going
I figured Marquette had the edge and I wanted them, but I sure didn't forsee hanging a huge beatdown on the Mouseketeers.
My Golden Eagles hopefuls were never behind in the score so I could not get the cheapie odds I hoped for (because I was expecting a close game) and eventually let it go as a "pass" Oh well. Nothing lost
Taking Toledo. Kent St INCREASED their FG% to 51% but has lots of guys with fouls. Toledo has upped their shooting but no foul issues. I am hoping Kent will eventually regress to their mean and fouls will have an impact on their play. Got Toledo on the ML +190
Not looking good. At least I have bourbon.
FWIW, I have VCU as having the edge in todays, game as the better team - teetering between slightly better and marginally better. This does take into account that starting guard Kobe Ellis for Dayton has missed their last two games and remains OUT - though they did win both without him, including a decent 10 pt win over 13 - 7 Fordham yesterday, while VCU was defeating 13 - 7 St.Louis by 12
I'm passing (pregame) as the spread and ML odds appear deadly accurate on this one, and will watch for a possible opportunity in game - potential being the better team is down but all the boxscore metrics suggest they have a great shot for a comeback
-----------------------
One of my key measures for in game bets (besides the game score, obviously) is HOW MANY TIMES did each team score.
I mean sometimes it might look like this:
TEAM A has scored 24 times but only 3 for ten from the arc (30% isn't horrible)
compared to the opp who is leading the game.....but....
TEAM B has only scored say, 16 times, but 6 for 7 on 3s and luckily got +7 more FTs to stake a small lead.
In a case like this (which happens frequently) TEAM A has demonstrated an ability to continue scoring, whereas TEAM B - who are now leading - is inconsistent but has been fortunate to hit an extraordinary high % on 3s and got the lucky benefit of plenty of extra calls sending them to the FT line.....*usually* a first half like THAT will not sustain itself and TEAM A will keep chugging along and narrow the gap and possibly take the lead, particularly if TEAM A's top players are NOT in foul trouble but 1 or 2 of TEAM B's are (or soon likely to be) in foul trouble.
MENS YTD: 90 - 43
I'll be passing completely on the IVY league game as I see no discernible edge to either team.
Princeton has the benefit of playing the final at home.
But Yale whupped them good twice, which includes the recent FEB 18 game @Princeton also, where YALE was playing without their #1 star and still won by 10 pts.
Mind you Princeton is bummed and wants revenge of course and this is the final.
OTOH, YALE's top player having missed 3 recent games did return for the last one is good to go once again!
PASS!
I have the Aggies/Tide game as close, but with a tiny edge to Bama.
Against the top teams in the conference, Aggies went 6 - 1; Bama 5 - 2
Bama does have some small variables in their favor, sure, but imo, not enough to believe they will easily cover -5.5 pts and too risky to take ML at -225 or whatever, because I just DO NOT see their odds of winning at 2.2 to 1 over the team that beat them just last week in their only game.
So PASSING on the pregame bets due to no obvious/significant edge.
BUT.......if Bama falls a little behind, and the boxscore metrics are solid, I may take them at some point in game......OR......if indications are this might be a one-off bad day for Bama I would seriously consider A&M in game and likely getting a good price - since Bama enters as the fav.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
