2012 Kempom System

pitchblack,
go check up on your own thread! LMAO!!!

No...seriously I thought he was saying that he got N Illinois at +11.5...if it was a mistake and they were actually referring to Canisius then that's different...I know Canisious ended at +11.5 at many books...

Or Troe...

seriously! pitchblack!
you can ignore me all you want, i will be in your face all the time. you're so dumb you don't even have a common sense.

Nobody is knocking Kine's "plays" ... I could not appreciate more everything he's done.  We are knocking NORTHERN ARIZONA.  Is that okay with you, that I vent a little bit after dropping a nickel on these shitty mouth-breathing fucktards?

as long as you're having fun

Sal that was directed at dgenerate not you...and I think the post you are referring to is talking about me...

He lumped me in there too.  Pretty sure of it.

I will never, EVER bash someone whose play(s) I tailed.  Nobody had a gun to my head.  But when a shit team goes out and plays like ... a shit team, it helps my sanity to type about it.

I'm sorry if that feels "negative" to people, but by the time I post, the horse is out of the barn.

I hear that...these last couple of weeks have been hell for my plays, so many by one or two points...

System 0-1

Plays tomorrow: Idaho St +10, Northern Colorado +7 (actually like both of these so not sure if that is good or bad)

Most importantly, almost systems plays: Illinois Chicago +13

Plays I'm looking at myself:
TCU +7 - Pretty crazy here, I played TCU against Wyoming in their first meeting and it was an easy, comfortable cover.  And then played TCU against SMU as a (much) bigger than usual play and they played their worst game of the year and get a lane violation at the end to hose the bet.  Now they have gone 5-0 ATS since including three straight up dog wins. 

If you have been monitoring the thread, I've been fading Wyoming their last few games and then jumped on them Saturday as it was a great matchup for them against Boise.  Now they are 7-pt favorites again a team that I believe it their equal.  Wyoming has tanked at the end of the season for three straight years and I see nothing to indicate that anything has changed.  It is interesting to look at the Kenpom ranking - Wyoming is 70 - based largely on the fact that they played one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (336 out of 345) with 10 of their first 12 games being at home (where altitude and conditioning are a bigger factor at the beginning of the season) and TCU is ranked 131 although they played a tougher Non-Conference SOS and played 6 of their first 11 at neutral or away floors and now TCU is 7-5 vs Wyoming's 5-7 conference record.  TCU's road form has been suspect for sure, but 7 is too many points in a game with two very evenly matched teams (TCU is one of the only teams in the MWC that can match Wyoming's experience and also sports the deeper of the two teams).  TCU got off to a fast start in their first matchup and I'll be hoping for something similar again.  I'll be grabbing this one in the morning on 5dimes reduced juice - doubt I'll get better than +7

Weber St +4.5 - Gamehunter and I discussed their first matchup in depth and I had a bigger than usual bet on Weber first time as I don't believe in this Montana team (worked that time).  In the interest of full disclosure that belief has burned me recently as I lost a bet with Hawaii against them on Bracketbuster saturday.  You can literally make the argument that the last good team Montana has played since Dec 10th is Weber, a game they got destroyed in (and yes the same argument can be made against Weber but atleast they did hammer Montana and they had a much tougher bracketbuster game against a very tough UTA team).  Weber is one of the only teams in the Big Sky who can match Montana's inside presence (both has similar effective height numbers on kenpom) while their ability to score make them a tough matchup for Montana who has feasted on the suckiness of the rest of the conference.  This game is for the conference title and both teams are expecting a war (often times it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy) and in a game I expect to be intense and tight, I definitely would want the points.  Seems like Montana with the revenge (and name value) will be a popular play so I would love to get 5 or better, it'll be interesting if this one moves.

K St -4.5 (don't like this at this number, but I am suspecting some "sharps" might get some buyback on Aggies - if I can get 3.5ish I'll be very interested, if not I'll pass or hope for a slow K St start for a 2nd half bet)
 
I'll be in and out all day tomorrow if anyone wants to discuss the games or finds any good articles about the games to discuss

KP, if you have an account at Bookmaker, it moved to 7.5 there.

Or maybe the best thing you can do is stay out of the thread? You bring nothing but negative shit in here. How did your big system play go last night?

 GL KINE IM ON THE OTHER SIDE IN THE COWBOYS GAME

Ill-Chicago is a conference tournament game... didnt think this applied?

something to point out about the Illinois-Chi / Wisc Milw game is that it will be only the 3rd game at the Klotsche Center this season (which is on UWM's campus) rather than at US Cellular Arena, where they normally play their home games now. 

not sure exactly what that means here, but UIC has not played here before (at least not this group of players) and the environment should be a little different than normal UWM home games.

"The Panthers are 12-3 at home, though they have played only two games on campus (one was an exhibition). The U.S. Cellular Arena is unavailable Tuesday."

"Home-court advantage is huge, especially for us," Williams said. "We don't lose many home-court games. I think we've lost three throughout the year and two of them came at a bad time, when we were struggling. We're a great home-court team and we've got great support. That means a lot to us." - jsonline.com

another angle here is that UIC got very chippy in the 2nd half of the last game.  a flagrant foul, as well as a dead ball personal foul that UWM took exception to.  i realize it's a tournament game, so UWM's would be focused no matter what, but this just adds a little motivation in my opinion. 

combine that with the way UWM has been shooting the 3 lately and i think its a no play for me.  going to dig a little deeper from the UIC angle, and would love to hear some thoughts on this. 

your sytem,,,does not like the fighting irish,,,,crash and burn bigtime,,,,,not good,,,

have a good day 

BOL today KP. Anyone who can't appreciate what you've provided here is ______. Well a long list a things could be placed in the blank area, so I'll leave it at that...

Odds - Thanks bro - continued success you beast!

Added Plays: Wyoming +8

Weber +5

Waiting on the system plays to watch line movement and if the K St lined drops a bit more I'll be on them too

KP - My book has TCU at +8 now should I hop on or do u think it might keep rising?

TCU +8 not WYO I know KP just got it switched

TCU +8, Weber +5 - sorry was in a hurry

Most importantly, almost systems plays: Illinois Chicago +13

(Are these doing well?)

Illinois Chi +13 is one I have not studied.  Can anyone tell me what they bring to the table in terms of depth, defense, and ball handling?

Thanks.