2012 Kempom System

Yacker, I can't argue with your theory as tourney games often slow down compared to regular season statistics. However, the stats in this case are quite interesting. VMI has played 10 conference tourney games since Dugger Baucom took over the team in '06 and implemented his high tempo philosophy. Only one of those games went under tonight's total. On average, VMI's Big South tourney games have seen an average of 73.9 possessions and a total of 167.1 points scored. Just some food for thought

(Notice, I did not reference a certain someone with the initials KP whose site I like to frequent for statistics....didn't want to provide any free advertising for who Kine is "working" for   )

Well hell I will never argue with you on a total. That is for sure. As I said it is a LEAN but if you are playing the OVER then I am in. Great find on the conference totals since 2006!

It's a NO PLAY for me since as you state, Radford's offensive efficiency is atrocious, ranked 321 in the country only scoring 0.885 points per possession. They've only exceeded 65 points this season 4x (vs VMI, High Point, Cincy, and Charleston Southern). I lean over, but Radford's offensive statistics is enough to keep me on the sideline tonight.

 

Sideline it is!

combination of high speed tempo + horrible D = over for me.

I concur Train.  I search for Kines opinions. 

If you been in JFen threads you would of seen him mention KPs plays more than once,
not sure what your upset about,those 2 games on Sunday or the system,
It seems that you dont like the plays so just dont play them,as far as the Prof.record keeping Ive never seen him try to make it anything as it doesnt really matter to him,only the money when its all over.

It is not a system play as they dont have lines,
I did take Radford+8 last night and should of waited as it seems to be going up,VMI is a much better offensive team,but they played 2 close games this year so WTF,I took it.

Both No. Illinois & Canisius pushed for most..

I really like this systems so far(b/c it's winning) but who do you guys tail during college football ?

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I like KP and the system I guess b/c it's winning but who do you guys tail during college football season

You are right.  No movement yet today.

Hey Guys,
Just got a few minutes before starting the evening training sessions, ticked I didn't go ahead and lock in Ok St +10 early - its +9 now and it will be a no-play, but I'll be tracking the first half for a possible second half play. 

I haven't locked Northern Arizona in yet, its +9 -107 reduced juice on 5dimes meaning that its more likely (at this moment) to move down to +8.5 then it is to move up to +9.5.  If it ticks up to 9.5, you might consider grabbing it as I'd be very surprised if it climbed beyond that (although I do believe we SHOULD be getting a better line here, but not surprised its holding at 9 with such a short card). 

I know there has been some discussions about 2nd half bets using system games and feel free to do it, but I will say that I'm much more likely to go for a "middle" (aka - NAU ends up being up 9 at halftime and the 2nd half line is Montata St -7 for example), then I would be to bet ON the system play again if its getting pounded (aka - NAU is down 17 at half and the line is NAU +4 for the second half for example), I wouldn't risk a second unit on a system play (and there really is no point because if you were paying attention yesterday, these plays are "rarely" completely dead till the very end, risking another unit on it is an example of very little value and very little upside IMO).  We can discuss this concept in more detail later if you like. 

Working late with clients tonight but we can feel free to discuss 2nd half betting strategies, other under the radar games, or even mma/soccer thoughts and strategies (the other two sports where the savvy gambler has an advantage over the books if they are willing to put forth the effort), if anyone would like to.  I'll be back on late tonight after work to get some discussions going. 

*Also, I've been asked about other sports I bet, and as I mentioned above, there is an advantage in mma and to a lesser extent soccer (which is why I bet those sports too).  Nascar is one of the worst sports to bet (particular the "to win" or "to finish in the top ___" props, but occasionally they put out some "weak" numbers in the matchup props. 

I'm on Danica Patrick to finish better than Casey Mears at +115 on 5dimes

First, anything can happen and its Daytona so there will be numerous huge wrecks and if we are unlucky enough to get caught up in one of those its toast.  But the value is in the fact that Danica is in a much better car and with a much better team.  She has teammates in the race and multiple drivers that don't mind drafting with her (insert sexist joke here).  The restrictor plate racetracks have been Danica's best tracks as well.  But more importantly this is a play against Casey Mears.  First, he sucks.  Second, this is a one-car race team meaning he will have practically no friends out there or drafting partners.  This race team missed the Daytona 500 altogether last year and in 3+ years the have only one top 10 first as a race team.  Casey should be in the middle to the back of the pack throughout the race (and there is where the crashes occur early in the race).  Even if Danica finishes poorly, we still have a nice chance that Mears will already be knocked out of the race in an earlier crash.  Even if Danica finished 42nd, if Mears finishes 43rd we still win. 

Again, this is no guarantee AT ALL, but + juice is too much value to pass up to bet AGAINST crappy Casey Mears

late last night around 1am, thegreek actually had northern arizona +10, i find the greek to have extremely favourable odds for this system, has anybody else noticed that?

Agree, and they "would have" come in very handy on bracketbuster day.  Unfortunately, they're out of the US, and that cost me some $$$ as I love their head to head college and NFL team and player props and had numerous plays that would have won.

I've only been following this system for a few weeks, but it seems like if we bet AGAINST the system teams in the first half, it would yield a small fortune.  Yes, there is the occasional wire-to-wire cruise where our pups win outright, but it mainly feels like we're usually desperate for a backdoor cover late in the 2nd half.

Gonna need another one of those tonight, BTW.

Shitty Montana State is stroking 3-pointers as if they are Duke.

I wouldn't put too much credence in these theories.

taking home team minus points in H1 and road team plus points for whole game is not a bad idea. we can split 1/2 units on both

looking like another system loss going on now. N Arizona getting blown out.

They look fantastic.

Northern Arizona could screw up any system.

This is a team that lost its coach at mid-season and replaced him with one of the team's broadcasters. Not exactly a move that's going to inspire the players or for that matter the holdover assistants.

And yet I was not smart enough to simply play against this team at every opportunity. Easy money flushed down the toilet and I've only myself to blame.

Heat up the buses, this one is over.

Not so fast...I'm sure Kline found a book somewhere in the West Indie's that had the game at +19.5...

I think you are trying to reference when Kine commented on dgenerate when he said he had NIU +11.5.  They clearly meant Canisius +11.5.  Let it rest and go back to your own system.  Before you said Canisius wasn't offered at 11.5 check this link out.

https://www.covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=830920&sport=ncb

GET A LIFE GUYS.... the people that read kines thread are trying to get an edge - which he provides... the fact that you guys are even taking time out to knock his plays is an absolute joke and in FACT your bigger losers than northern arizona... GET THE H$## out of here.... i played kines pick and lost but thats the way this goes...