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2012 Kempom System

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Sal_Tessio

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 1191

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 2:16 PM ET #826

So who exactly moves CBB lines? The "sharps" or the public?

I've heard conflicting opinions.

Take TCU and Weber State, for example. Kine has good reasoning to back both dogs, yet the number for both favorites is on the rise. At first glance, one would suspect that the public is doing the typical public thing ... backing home teams in critical games. But if the public can't move money (if indeed you believe that), then are we to believe that sharps are on Wyoming and Montana, respectively?

oddsbuster

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 20924

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 2:22 PM ET #827

Quote Originally Posted by Sal_Tessio:

So who exactly moves CBB lines? The "sharps" or the public?

I've heard conflicting opinions.

Take TCU and Weber State, for example. Kine has good reasoning to back both dogs, yet the number for both favorites is on the rise. At first glance, one would suspect that the public is doing the typical public thing ... backing home teams in critical games. But if the public can't move money (if indeed you believe that), then are we to believe that sharps are on Wyoming and Montana, respectively?

It's all about money. Sometimes a group of syndicates connected to other sharps can move lines based on their wagers because they are dumping large amounts of money at different books on one game. When word reaches multiple places of certain people on certain games the betting shops react. And that knowledge is most always triggered and found based on money. At the end of the day all the shops want is a balanced amount of money on as many games as possible to make that vig. Both Sharps & Public action are very capable of moving numbers...

Philbert

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2012

Posts: 25

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 2:26 PM ET #828

It doesn't take much to move a smaller conference basketball line. This is not at all like the NBA, NFL or college FB. Lines move fast, move back fast on occasion, and once one 'book" moves the line, most others follow blindly.

oddsbuster

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 20924

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 2:28 PM ET #829

Quote Originally Posted by Sal_Tessio:

So who exactly moves CBB lines? The "sharps" or the public?

I've heard conflicting opinions.

Take TCU and Weber State, for example. Kine has good reasoning to back both dogs, yet the number for both favorites is on the rise. At first glance, one would suspect that the public is doing the typical public thing ... backing home teams in critical games. But if the public can't move money (if indeed you believe that), then are we to believe that sharps are on Wyoming and Montana, respectively?

Determining who is actually moving spreads on a certain game when and why is the hardest part about your question. I for one steer clear of trying to figure out the answer to this question and just handle my own business as best as I can.

You seem to already know this, as both sides are capable of moving numbers...

Sal_Tessio

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 1191

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 2:31 PM ET #830

JimmyTheLegend

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2005

Posts: 2700

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 2:57 PM ET #831

E WASHINGTON is 3-15 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games (vs Idaho St)

PORTLAND ST is 2-12 ATS off a home win (vs N Colorado)

billywaddy

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 1570

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 4:47 PM ET #832

Jimmy: please change your avatar. i cannot take it anymore!!!!

JimmyTheLegend

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2005

Posts: 2700

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 5:08 PM ET #833

Keep aiming for the bullseye Billy and you'll always have a Great Day!!!

Celtics33

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 231

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 5:16 PM ET #834

Jimmy you can post all you want with that avatar...doesn't even have to make sense...

KineProfessor

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4619

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 7:07 PM ET #835

Hey Guys, I locked in Northern Colorado at +8 on 5dimes, I'm waiting for Idaho St to tick up back to +10, its +9.5 currently on 5dimes with plenty of time before tip.

Early I grabbed: TCU +8 and Weber +5 and I just added .5 units on Weber +5.5 (total investment 1.5 units).

Didn't get a chance to dive into Illinois Chicago like I wanted to so that will be a no-play and I am sitting out on K St -4.5 but will be tracking closely and if they have a slow first half, I might be on them in the 2nd - good luck. If anything else jumps out I'll post in here - good luck today

And will someone have a Maria Menounos avatar already

PTOTOUR

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 1222

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 7:07 PM ET #836

LOVE IT JIMMY LEG

PTOTOUR

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 1222

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 7:13 PM ET #837

KINE

kdawgy

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 1742

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 7:14 PM ET #838

KP, just wanted to stop in and say thanks for posting so much lately. I haven't had much time to cap myself as this is our busy season at work, but I always appreciate your insight and I'm SO GLAD you don't let the idiots on here that don't understand the difference between working an angle and posting a "guaranteed lock" dissuade you.

Thanks brotha! And hopefully I'll have more time to join the discussion during tournament time.

SweetDickWormy

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2011

Posts: 473

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 7:21 PM ET #839

Just jumped on Weber St. +5.5. Surprised it has went that high. Didn't Weber St. thump Montana by 15+ at home earlier this season?

Can't seem to pull the trigger on TCU...best of luck everyone!

JEG53

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 26753

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 7:54 PM ET #840

got the 8 on TCU also,plus on Weber St+5.5 also,did take the +13 on Ill.Chic.also plus 2 other plays so far,
looking at Minn.+6.5 in NBA,having a urge to take N.O.+13.5 at Bulls also,tuff to pull the trigger though.

Sal_Tessio

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 1191

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 7:56 PM ET #841

Quote Originally Posted by SweetDickWormy:

Just jumped on Weber St. +5.5. Surprised it has went that high.

You are surprised. I am flat out concerned.

I know line moves are frequently wrong, but how does the steam keep moving against a quality team like Weber State? I played this HUGE when it hit +5.

This game is streaming online. If I don't like the looks of things in the first half, hopefully Weber State is close enough that buying out in the second half becomes an option.

KineProfessor

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4619

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 7:59 PM ET #842

Guess K St isn't going to start slow and I shouldn't have been such a wuss about laying the points

whisperman

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 888

Posted: Feb. 28, 2012 - 8:02 PM ET #843

Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:

Hey Guys, I locked in Northern Colorado at +8 on 5dimes, I'm waiting for Idaho St to tick up back to +10, its +9.5 currently on 5dimes with plenty of time before tip.

Early I grabbed: TCU +8 and Weber +5 and I just added .5 units on Weber +5.5 (total investment 1.5 units).

Didn't get a chance to dive into Illinois Chicago like I wanted to so that will be a no-play and I am sitting out on K St -4.5 but will be tracking closely and if they have a slow first half, I might be on them in the 2nd - good luck. If anything else jumps out I'll post in here - good luck today

And will someone have a Maria Menounos avatar already

Thanks KINE for letting us know your locked in bets and at what number..much appreciated..