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2012 Kempom System

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Posted: #826
So who exactly moves CBB lines?  The "sharps" or the public?

I've heard conflicting opinions.

Take TCU and Weber State, for example.  Kine has good reasoning to back both dogs, yet the number for both favorites is on the rise.  At first glance, one would suspect that the public is doing the typical public thing ... backing home teams in critical games.  But if the public can't move money (if indeed you believe that), then are we to believe that sharps are on Wyoming and Montana, respectively?
 
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Posted: #827
Quote Originally Posted by Sal_Tessio:

So who exactly moves CBB lines?  The "sharps" or the public?

I've heard conflicting opinions.

Take TCU and Weber State, for example.  Kine has good reasoning to back both dogs, yet the number for both favorites is on the rise.  At first glance, one would suspect that the public is doing the typical public thing ... backing home teams in critical games.  But if the public can't move money (if indeed you believe that), then are we to believe that sharps are on Wyoming and Montana, respectively?
It's all about money. Sometimes a group of syndicates connected to other sharps can move lines based on their wagers because they are dumping large amounts of money at different books on one game. When word reaches multiple places of certain people on certain games the betting shops react. And that knowledge is most always triggered and found based on money. At the end of the day all the shops want is a balanced amount of money on as many games as possible to make that vig. Both Sharps & Public action are very capable of moving numbers...
 
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Posted: #828
It doesn't take much to move a smaller conference basketball line.  This is not at all like the NBA, NFL or college FB.  Lines move fast, move back fast on occasion, and once one 'book" moves the line, most others follow blindly.


 
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Posted: #829
Quote Originally Posted by Sal_Tessio:

So who exactly moves CBB lines?  The "sharps" or the public?

I've heard conflicting opinions.

Take TCU and Weber State, for example.  Kine has good reasoning to back both dogs, yet the number for both favorites is on the rise.  At first glance, one would suspect that the public is doing the typical public thing ... backing home teams in critical games.  But if the public can't move money (if indeed you believe that), then are we to believe that sharps are on Wyoming and Montana, respectively?
Determining who is actually moving spreads on a certain game when and why is the hardest part about your question. I for one steer clear of trying to figure out the answer to this question and just handle my own business as best as I can. 

You seem to already know this, as both sides are capable of moving numbers...
 
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Posted: #830
 
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Posted: #831
E WASHINGTON is 3-15 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games (vs Idaho St)

PORTLAND ST is 2-12 ATS off a home win (vs N Colorado)
 
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Posted: #832
Jimmy: please change your avatar. i cannot take it anymore!!!! 
 
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Posted: #833
Keep aiming for the bullseye Billy and you'll always have a Great Day!!!
 
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Posted: #834
Jimmy you can post all you want with that avatar...doesn't even have to make sense...
 
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Posted: #835
Hey Guys, I locked in Northern Colorado at +8 on 5dimes, I'm waiting for Idaho St to tick up back to +10, its +9.5 currently on 5dimes with plenty of time before tip. 

Early I grabbed: TCU +8 and Weber +5 and I just added .5 units on Weber +5.5 (total investment 1.5 units).

Didn't get a chance to dive into Illinois Chicago like I wanted to so that will be a no-play and I am sitting out on K St -4.5 but will be tracking closely and if they have a slow first half, I might be on them in the 2nd - good luck.  If anything else jumps out I'll post in here - good luck today

And will someone have a Maria Menounos avatar already
 
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Posted: #836

LOVE IT JIMMY LEG    

 
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Posted: #837
KINE 
 
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Posted: #838
KP, just wanted to stop in and say thanks for posting so much lately.  I haven't had much time to cap myself as this is our busy season at work, but I always appreciate your insight and I'm SO GLAD you don't let the idiots on here that don't understand the difference between working an angle and posting a "guaranteed lock" dissuade you.

Thanks brotha!  And hopefully I'll have more time to join the discussion during tournament time.
 
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Posted: #839

Just jumped on Weber St. +5.5.  Surprised it has went that high.  Didn't Weber St. thump Montana by 15+ at home earlier this season? 

Can't seem to pull the trigger on TCU...best of luck everyone!

 
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Posted: #840
got the 8 on TCU also,plus on Weber St+5.5 also,did take the +13 on Ill.Chic.also plus 2 other plays so far,
looking at Minn.+6.5 in NBA,having a urge to take N.O.+13.5 at Bulls also,tuff to pull the trigger though.
 
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Posted: #841
Quote Originally Posted by SweetDickWormy:

Just jumped on Weber St. +5.5.  Surprised it has went that high.

You are surprised.  I am flat out concerned.

I know line moves are frequently wrong, but how does the steam keep moving against a quality team like Weber State?  I played this HUGE when it hit +5.

This game is streaming online.  If I don't like the looks of things in the first half, hopefully Weber State is close enough that buying out in the second half becomes an option.
 
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Posted: #842
Guess K St isn't going to start slow and I shouldn't have been such a wuss about laying the points
 
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Posted: #843
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:

Hey Guys, I locked in Northern Colorado at +8 on 5dimes, I'm waiting for Idaho St to tick up back to +10, its +9.5 currently on 5dimes with plenty of time before tip. 

Early I grabbed: TCU +8 and Weber +5 and I just added .5 units on Weber +5.5 (total investment 1.5 units).

Didn't get a chance to dive into Illinois Chicago like I wanted to so that will be a no-play and I am sitting out on K St -4.5 but will be tracking closely and if they have a slow first half, I might be on them in the 2nd - good luck.  If anything else jumps out I'll post in here - good luck today

And will someone have a Maria Menounos avatar already


Thanks KINE for letting us know your locked in bets and at what number..much appreciated..
 
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Posted: #844
Final Card (with the exception of 2nd plays):
TCU +8
Weber +5 and +5.5
Northern Colorado +8
Idaho St +9.5

Good luck
 
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Posted: #845
Kicking myself. Had Kst -4.5 and was going to hedge with Tx A&M at half but didn't and could have won both ends. 
 
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Posted: #846
tailing you on the two night games... gl sir
 
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Posted: #847
Weber State was awesome early..... then not so much.

https://www.firstrowsports.eu/watch/110347/2/watch-weber-st.-vs-montana.html
 
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Posted: #848
took tcu +12.5 in LIVE
 
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Posted: #849

also on North Colorado +8 big tonight

does anyone know any sites that might be hosting the game??

 

 
 
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Posted: #850
Couldn't buy out of Weber State -OR- TCU at halftime.

Both down too big.  Time to pray.
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