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2018 pre system

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StavrosG3

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 5

Posted: Jan. 23, 2018 - 9:21 PM ET #26

Good hit!

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PLAYAAAA1969

All-Star

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 10007

Posted: Jan. 23, 2018 - 9:26 PM ET #27

Always was a profitable system...Thanksfor keeping it alive Ryno..

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umgmu

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 40019

Posted: Jan. 23, 2018 - 9:52 PM ET #28

Great call Ryno

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pederson16

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 7214

Posted: Jan. 23, 2018 - 10:18 PM ET #29

good to have you back ryno....just for the people that cannot remember exactly the kine professor original system, can you please specify it again? (asking for a friend.....

)

i believe , dogs of 6.5+ against teams below 160 in kenpom ratings; always play dog and you add first half, right??

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pederson16

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 7214

Posted: Jan. 23, 2018 - 10:19 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by Spartyscott:

Yes you're correct CMU was 167. The system is 180 or lower. It can be tweaked from what I have read. The road dog must also open up 7-12 . I didn't make the system I'm just riding his coat tails !

exactly, but 'it can be tweaked'; what was the original kine professor system? any one remember exactly what it was?

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JamieR44

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2015

Posts: 652

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 8:53 AM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by pederson16:

QUOTE Originally Posted by Spartyscott: Yes you're correct CMU was 167. The system is 180 or lower. It can be tweaked from what I have read. The road dog must also open up 7-12 . I didn't make the system I'm just riding his coat tails ! exactly, but 'it can be tweaked'; what was the original kine professor system? any one remember exactly what it was?

Ped: Check here

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=101275364

Covers, good job on the archive!

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Upside

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8002

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 9:54 AM ET #32

Thx for posting Ryno ... may have to tale a few ..my own capping flat out blows .... lol

Tonight looking at UC Irv Kenpom Rank 178 opened at - 10 1/2 vs UC Riverside ...

The play looks like UC RIV + 10 1/2 ...but a heads up is all

Last 4 Times UC Irvine played UC Riverside at home

2014 / Won by 18

2015 / Won by 14

2016 / Won by 16

2017 / Won by 19

Just posting so you know bro ... don't care for any side

Only other possible game

Kenpom / Wofford # 167 ...they are -9 at VMI

GL !!!

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JamieR44

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2015

Posts: 652

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 10:00 AM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Thx for posting Ryno ... may have to tale a few ..my own capping flat out blows .... lol Tonight looking at UC Irv Kenpom Rank 178 opened at - 10 1/2 vs UC Riverside ... The play looks like UC RIV + 10 1/2 ...but a heads up is all Last 4 Times UC Irvine played UC Riverside at home 2014 / Won by 18 2015 / Won by 14 2016 / Won by 16 2017 / Won by 19 Just posting so you know bro ... don't care for any side Only other possible game Kenpom / Wofford # 167 ...they are -9 at VMI GL !!!

Just as an FYI, in that original thread/link, I believe I read that The System was adjusted slightly to look for games at the KenPom#165 and better level.

OP here likely knows better/best.

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ryno23

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 3020

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 10:09 AM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Thx for posting Ryno ... may have to tale a few ..my own capping flat out blows .... lol

Tonight looking at UC Irv Kenpom Rank 178 opened at - 10 1/2 vs UC Riverside ...

The play looks like UC RIV + 10 1/2 ...but a heads up is all

Last 4 Times UC Irvine played UC Riverside at home

2014 / Won by 18

2015 / Won by 14

2016 / Won by 16

2017 / Won by 19

Just posting so you know bro ... don't care for any side

Only other possible game

Kenpom / Wofford # 167 ...they are -9 at VMI

GL !!!

thanks upside for the info.

Wofford is road fav doesn't apply. i am going to deviate a little this year guys, i will look at original parameters then kine revised to include kp 165 or worse and i even will deviate further as Utah st will be a play tonight(kp 157)

you guys know the system and don't have to follow certain plays but last year i noticed i missed a few because i was so strict with the system. kine always told me to be elastic with these rankings from kp so I'm going to try and change it up. gl tonight! ryno

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ryno23

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 3020

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 10:11 AM ET #35

record:

first halfs 2-0

full game 2-0

2 plays today guys :

air force +9

riverside +10.5

i play first halfs too until we see a drop off.

gl ryno

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WISEGUY36

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 34171

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 10:18 AM ET #36

Good Luck Tonight , Bud

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.

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TheNeonIcon2020

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2017

Posts: 64

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 11:06 AM ET #37

Is Riverside still the play with there best player suspended?

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WISEGUY36

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 34171

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 11:11 AM ET #38

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.

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ndsent1

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 19113

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 1:01 PM ET #39

Good Luck Bro..............

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phillypino215

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2018

Posts: 1

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 1:48 PM ET #40

following, thanks.

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SevenIron

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 101

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 2:13 PM ET #41

Appreciate that you keep bringing us back to this angle Ryno and the attention you and others on this thread share with us I think your tweaks to the system have made it better and I know they have provided lots more action and involvement

Having said that Pederson asked about the original parameters of the system and if I recall the original Kine Professor system limited the bets to those conferences that were normally not lined which used to be a much larger segment of the games The theory as I understood it was that the oddsmakers had soft lines for three reasons:

1. Lack of knowledge about the Conference because of the usual lack of a betting line

2 The overvalue of home court advantage for many of these teams

3 The fact that later in the season the teams that were weak (below 180 Kenpom) were drawing smaller crowds and had very little to play for pre conference tournament

That was a much smaller universe of games than your tweaks to the system cover especially because so many conferences are now routinely lined but I think your tweaks have increased the value of the system Having said that when a SWAC or MEAC game shows up I always put a little extra on it

Hope my memory isn't too fuzzy and that's accurate history

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SevenIron

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 101

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 2:33 PM ET #42

If I remember right there were not only very few games but the lines were even further off than they are now and some people wanted to keep it quiet because they argued that the line makers would discover it and make an adjustment I also think that somewhere in the 2012-2013 period the lines did seem to tighten up you saw less lines in the 8-12 point range and more in the 6.5-8 range but the system has held up anyway

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ryno23

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 3020

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 4:26 PM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by TheNeonIcon2020:

Is Riverside still the play with there best player suspended?

neo, definitely something to consider but i usually take all the thinking out of this...vegas surely has adjusted line don't you think?

i usually hit submit, hold my nose and collet! gl whichever way you go ryno

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ryno23

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 3020

Posted: Jan. 24, 2018 - 4:36 PM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by SevenIron:

Appreciate that you keep bringing us back to this angle Ryno and the attention you and others on this thread share with us I think your tweaks to the system have made it better and I know they have provided lots more action and involvement

Having said that Pederson asked about the original parameters of the system and if I recall the original Kine Professor system limited the bets to those conferences that were normally not lined which used to be a much larger segment of the games The theory as I understood it was that the oddsmakers had soft lines for three reasons:

1. Lack of knowledge about the Conference because of the usual lack of a betting line

2 The overvalue of home court advantage for many of these teams

3 The fact that later in the season the teams that were weak (below 180 Kenpom) were drawing smaller crowds and had very little to play for pre conference tournament

That was a much smaller universe of games than your tweaks to the system cover especially because so many conferences are now routinely lined but I think your tweaks have increased the value of the system Having said that when a SWAC or MEAC game shows up I always put a little extra on it

Hope my memory isn't too fuzzy and that's accurate history

hey sev, worth mentioning- i think you got it backwards a little on which conferences. kine never played the conferences that seldom lined or never lined and they get lined later in year. but we also found that those plays started becoming profitable so they got added. kine always was flexible.

so, people that want to know how it was- play on:

road dog that is +6.5 or better with opponent whose ranking is 180 or worse.

it was tweaked a few years ago to play dogs +6.5 or better against teams ranked in kempom 165 or worse.

sometimes there landed teams ranked 158 or close..and were considered maybe plays// i play them.

it will save a lot of clutter if you guys just follow along.

as always this thread will blow up and when it loses i wont reply to any negative crap like that team sucked and why would u play it cuz of a...or b orc...etc....this is dummy proof. play what is posted and flat bet. u will come out ahead.

i will try and find records of past few years but covers changed stuff and i cant find my archived notes.

lastly, i am a stonemason and do not type well. please be a little forgiving. i welcome all ideas and questions but i hate having to answer

'can u explain the system. would this be a play..etc...the guys that know will usually catch a few i miss or will help out...thanks appreciated ahead of time. i will run this thread until Monday hen we start new week.

pre system i think was 27-11 last year? correct me if u can.

gl all ryno