2017 Record: 5-10
Anyone remember the Honoring the Deceased angle we used in the Marshall vs. Middle Tennessee game this year?
Marshall could not score a lick was losing everything, came in as 9 point dogs and lo and behold, while honoring the 1971 Marshall team in which 75 players died in a plane crash, won 42-17 over a bowl bound MTSU team, only their 3rd win of the year (the others lowly Morgan state and Florida Atlantic) and suddenly on that day they played like Alabama.
I wonder why? Trolls here will tell you the outcome had NOTHING to do with the 1970 ceremonies that day (even the players and coaches themselves said otherwise post-game). But trolls will be trolls. Let them dig their own capping graves.
The cap of that game was right here if you want to see it:
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=102342778&page=1
Lo and behold, the same angle comes back again.
And I will respectfully cap it again.
Earlier in the year I capped Albany -5.5 over Stony Brook based on one angle:
Stony Brook scored TWENTY ONE straight points the previous matchup to beat Albany and steal it at the buzzer. I suggested Albany would have enough mojo to bring it to Stony Brook the next game given such a scoring feat to end a game hadn't happened in decades.
It wasn't to be, they went down at home losing by 8 with revenge on the line.
But that game didn't have a major wrinkle that I am about to add:
Albany's best player is David Nichols. He averages 18/3/3.
This Saturday his sister passed away from leukemia. Remember, this is their #1 guy. What more would you want than for your team's star to be motivated?
In his first game since that occurred against Hartford in the first round of the American East Conference, here was his stat line:
40 pts
4 assists
8-12 from 3 pt range
Folks, that is all-world for this conference, and all-star like even for the NBA.
That stat line is so good, it tied the all time record for number of points a UAlbany player has scored last time done in 1957.
That's SIXTY years of record-setting history being eclipsed.
Moreover, from the local Albany rag:
The 1,693 in attendance gave him a hearty welcome when he was introduced. And all of the Danes wore the initials "CC" on the backs of their warmups in honor of Cecilia Coleman, a gesture that touched Donald Nichols, David's father, who was watching back in Chicago.
"The tribute to Cecilia before (Wednesday's) game was nothing short of amazing," Donald Nichols said in a Twitter message. "The passion and determination exhibited by the team embodied the fighting spirit CJ showed throughout her life. The outpouring of support from the entire UAlbany family has provided needed comfort during this time."
Now you ask yourself, was his performance influenced by his sister's passing?
It was.
Was Albany's win, their biggest winning margin of the year (29) (outside of beating SUNY ONEONTA which doesn't even register as a team D1,D2,D3 on ESPN's site), and their highest point total this year as a team (100), a total team win?
It was.
If you disagree with the previous two points stop reading now and move on. Because this cap isn't for you.
Last question:
Do you think all of this dissipates, all the honoring, the motivation of their star to put up an outrageous otherworldy stat line, the team coming together, players and coaches, the VERY NEXT GAME after the honoring, particularly in a double-revenge game?
It doesn't.
The emotions are not as intense as the Hartford game but the intensity is still there to some degree, perhaps to a major degree. And that degree should be enough for a win and cover.
Now this is on top of the angle I had last game where Albany was still looking to avenge that comeback (and believe me, being plastered all over ESPN and the web isn't to one's like in the mind of 18-22 year olds in the social media era).
You can counter with a very rational point:
You could say "Scal you just said Iona wouldn't have trouble sweeping St. Peter's and they did. Why are you saying Stony Brook can't sweep Albany?"
They can. But in my view, not with these two angles (i.e., honoring the deceased carrying over into the next game and the remaining vengeance form the first 21 pt comeback debacle).
And here's the best part.
No more Albany -5.5 spread like last game. Now we get a tremendous Albany -1.5.
BUT, and this is key, the books know they are between a rock and hard place. They simply can't lay lines for these types of angles.
So they went from UA -5.5 to UA -1.5. It should be -1 Stony Brook with a natural 6.5 pt swing but they are shading the line to Albany because of some of the above angles. But it won't be enough IMO.
And another juicy tidbit: Neutral courts are nice but in this case we WANT Albany to return to the scene of the 21 point comeback crime and stuff it right down Stony Brook's throat. And we get that. This is at Stony Brook (very small conferences play on their home courts instead of neutral courts). GOOD! Bring Stony Brook's court right here!
SB is no pushover, but we have them right where we want them with a great line.
Also, Alabany comes in hot, and this is key, WITHOUT a win streak, having won 8 of 9 while Stony Brook comes in having lost 2 of their last 3. Nichols WORST performances of the year came in the two games against Stony Brook, explaining their wins in part. Look for that to improve, in my view significantly.
Time for vengeance.
Time for Honor.
Time to get another win.
The pick:
ALBANY -1.5 OVER STONY BROOK
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