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Bubba's $$$$ Thread FRIDAY- Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.25.16

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gamblingallday

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3868

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 2:19 PM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by Par_Laid:

$$$$ Pick : Notre Dame -1

ND can shoot from the perimeter and get to the rim on a questionable wisky defense. Wisky can't shoot. Let's not pretend the last two games weren't basically coin flips decided by some great but unsustainable 3-pt shooting. ND also had an uncharacteristic amount of turnovers the last two games 13 and 16 whereas they average 10 a game over the regular season. SFA also happens to be the #1 team in the nation at forcing turnovers. The line is so small because wisconsin has a lot momentum and playing out of their minds whereas Notre Dame has been playing just well enough to win. You're laying 1 point here, pretty much a pick em. My only thought is will it be a pick em by morning given the strong whisky support?

Current $$$ Pick Record 0-1

(Been getting laid instead of par_laid, but righting the ship today and this week, M.O.B.)

I disagree with a lot of what you wrote.

1) Wisconsin actually has one of the best defenses in college basketball. I dont know how one would dispute that.

2) Wisconsin didnt have great but unsustainable 3 point shooting to win their 2 tourney games. The Badgers shot 29.6% from 3 against Xavier, and 21.1% from 3 against Pittsburgh. For the season Wisconsin shoots 35.1% from 3.

3) If anything ND has been shooting field goals at a unsustainable rate. They shot 58.1% from the field against Michigan. They shot 56.9% from the field against SFA and almost lost. For the year they shoot 47.6%.

4) If you discount Wisconsin's 2 wins because it was a coin flipish at the end of their games, you have to discount ND's win against Stephen F Austin as that was even more of a flukish win. Also I think most would agree that Wisconsin's 2 opponents, Pitt and Xavier, were better teams than Michigan and SFA.

My pick is Wisconsin +1.5. I like their grinding defense even against great offense like ND. Koenig getting his shooting touch back, Happs post game and NDs general bad defense I think will be enough for the Badgers to get the win. Hopefully NDs subpar defenders help Hayes play better offensively. This is not a big play for me and I dont really like the games today. I was flipping back and forth between betting Wisconsin or Iowa St but settled on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin +1.5

0

Quote Originally Posted by Par_Laid:

$$$$ Pick : Notre Dame -1

ND can shoot from the perimeter and get to the rim on a questionable wisky defense. Wisky can't shoot. Let's not pretend the last two games weren't basically coin flips decided by some great but unsustainable 3-pt shooting. ND also had an uncharacteristic amount of turnovers the last two games 13 and 16 whereas they average 10 a game over the regular season. SFA also happens to be the #1 team in the nation at forcing turnovers. The line is so small because wisconsin has a lot momentum and playing out of their minds whereas Notre Dame has been playing just well enough to win. You're laying 1 point here, pretty much a pick em. My only thought is will it be a pick em by morning given the strong whisky support?

Current $$$ Pick Record 0-1

(Been getting laid instead of par_laid, but righting the ship today and this week, M.O.B.)

I disagree with a lot of what you wrote.

1) Wisconsin actually has one of the best defenses in college basketball. I dont know how one would dispute that.

2) Wisconsin didnt have great but unsustainable 3 point shooting to win their 2 tourney games. The Badgers shot 29.6% from 3 against Xavier, and 21.1% from 3 against Pittsburgh. For the season Wisconsin shoots 35.1% from 3.

3) If anything ND has been shooting field goals at a unsustainable rate. They shot 58.1% from the field against Michigan. They shot 56.9% from the field against SFA and almost lost. For the year they shoot 47.6%.

4) If you discount Wisconsin's 2 wins because it was a coin flipish at the end of their games, you have to discount ND's win against Stephen F Austin as that was even more of a flukish win. Also I think most would agree that Wisconsin's 2 opponents, Pitt and Xavier, were better teams than Michigan and SFA.

My pick is Wisconsin +1.5. I like their grinding defense even against great offense like ND. Koenig getting his shooting touch back, Happs post game and NDs general bad defense I think will be enough for the Badgers to get the win. Hopefully NDs subpar defenders help Hayes play better offensively. This is not a big play for me and I dont really like the games today. I was flipping back and forth between betting Wisconsin or Iowa St but settled on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin +1.5

friedfunnel

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2016

Posts: 32

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 3:20 PM ET #27

Taking UNC ML.

All the analysts are in love with Thomas Bryant after his 19 point performance against Kentucky. It provided IND with a different dimension as it wasn't all Yogi Ferrell. UNC is a whole different animal with their front line. Johnson, Hicks and Meeks will bang the board and provide 2nd chance points. Between those three, you're gettintg 40 points from your front line on a average night. I expect at least 50 points from those 3. Bryant is the only big body in the trenches IND will have. IND guards are going to have to help and that is going to make them work and work. This is the same IND team that gave up 56 points to WISC's Hayes and Knapp. Yes, 56 points. If UNC commits to banging down in the paint, I see them winning by 6-7 points. If they depart from this strategy like they did against their 1st game against Duke, IND does have a shot.

Marcus Paige is due for a big game. He rises to the occasion, and everyone loves Yogi and rightfully so. But Paige has proven to be the steady hand UNC has needed when they need to score (whether it be a mid-range floater to assist to big men).

Joel Berry. He is the guy that needs to temper doing too much. He has the ability to take control of the game or defer to Brice. He needs to do the latter. If he plays hero ball, that goes right into the hands of IND.

I expect Bryant to get in foul trouble (like he did against WISC) and UNC to focus on crashing the paint. They need to give Brice and boys touches. The only way I see UNC losing is if they depart from their commitment inside (like the 1st Duke game) and IND shoots an ungodly % from 3 point line.

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TopFlightSports

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2016

Posts: 132

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 3:23 PM ET #28

Syracuse (9:40PM ET CBS) – With the favorites all winning and covering yesterday we have to expect a market correction of some sort with at least a couple dogs cashing tonight and we see one with a great chance for an outright win in the Midwest Region when the #10 seed Syracuse Orange take on the #11 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs in an improbable Sweet 16 matchup at the United Center in Chicago between two teams that were very close to being left out of the Big Dance. Gonzaga ensured they were part of the field by winning the WCC Tournament and based on St Mary’s being left out it’s a near certainty that Gonzaga would have been NIT bound had they not claimed the auto bid from their conference. Syracuse ended up getting in quite comfortably as a #10 seed as they weren’t even part of the First Four play in round but many felt when the Orange lost to Pitt in the first round of the ACC Tournament it looked like there was a strong possibility they would be left out of the Dance. Both teams played fantastic last weekend to get to this point but Gonzaga has been made a substantial favorite here and regardless of what happened last weekend we still feel the Bulldogs have been an overrated team all season and Syracuse is tremendous value getting points in a matchup where they look to be the actual favorites to win outright. To Gonzaga’s credit, the Bulldogs have finally developed an identity without Przemek Karnowski which is predicated on getting the ball to the duo of Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis. Wiltjer and Sabonis have developed a fantastic inside/outside presence for Gonzaga but Sabonis is far less effective shooting jumpers and while Wiltjer is hitting threes at nearly a 50 percent clip this season there will be a ton of pressure on him from long range against a stifling Syracuse zone defense that Jim Boeheim has once again perfected in the nick of time and is the catalyst for another Orange tournament run. When Syracuse has all five guys contributing and playing together their 2-3 zone can be as devastating as Virginia’s heralded defense and one huge advantage Syracuse will have tonight is the fact Gonzaga hasn’t seen anything like this in the watered down WCC this season. The Syracuse 2-3 will neutralize Sabonis making Gonzaga’s perimeter players step up and while Wiltjer shoots the ball extremely well, the Bulldogs don’t have another serious perimeter threat which will allow Syracuse to key on Wiltjer and force the other Gonzaga guards to beat them with the long ball. Dayton and Middle Tennessee hadn’t seen anything like the Syracuse 2-3 either and both teams looked totally clueless on offense with the Flyers shooting just 32.1 percent from the field and Middle Tennessee State, a team that put up 90 against Michigan State last week, held to just 29.7 percent from the field. Syracuse held these two opponents to an average of 50.5 points over the two tournament games and we see Gonzaga with a similar make up to Dayton and not a team built for success against a stifling 2-3. We have never been high on Kyle Wiltjer as a game changer but what he has done over the past couple weeks has certainly been impressive, playing a huge role in carrying Gonzaga to the Sweet 16. When you study Wiltjer’s shot spray charts he shoots his highest percentage from head on and in the paint, two very difficult looks to get against the 2-3 zone. Sabonis rarely ventures outside the three point arc and does all of his work close to the basket which means clean looks will be at a huge premium the way Tyler Roberson and DaJuan Coleman have stepped up and controlled the paint. What this means for Gonzaga is main scoring option #1, Wiltjer, might get looks from three but they will be further behind the arc and not in his comfort spots and main scoring option #2, Sabonis, will essentially have a hand in his face from Roberson or Coleman on every shot he takes all night. Gonzaga only has one other double digit scorer on the team in Eric McClellan who is a shade over 10 points per game and with Syracuse likely to contain the likes of Wiltjer and Sabonis we just don’t see where the points are going to come from tonight for the Bulldogs. The last couple weeks excluded this was widely considered a down year for Gonzaga as well as the West Coast Conference as neither St Mary’s or BYU, perennial NCAA tournament players, were good enough to warrant an at large bid. While Gonzaga has turned lemons into lemonade here to an extent with a Sweet 16 run, we this team in over their heads against a Syracuse team that has seen it all in the vastly superior ACC Conference and competed against some of the best teams in the country night in and night out all season. At the very least the number should be a pick in a game between these two teams at a true neutral venue and we think the odds makers made a huge mistake making Gonzaga a substantial favorite. If Syracuse doesn’t win tonight it will be because they beat themselves by not executing at the offensive end but the Orange won’t beat themselves badly enough to not be right in this in the final minutes and either way we expect an easy cover of the number and most likely an outright win as ‘Cuse keeps their dream alive and advances to the Elite 8.

$$$$ Syracuse +4.5

I alluded to the fact Gonzaga hasn't seen a defense like the Syracuse 2-3 in WCC play but after looking further the Zags haven't seen a zone all season. If Syracuse comes to play tonight they win comfortably. My full card for today is up at topflightsportsinfo dot com.

Lets cash this ticket tonight

0

Syracuse (9:40PM ET CBS) – With the favorites all winning and covering yesterday we have to expect a market correction of some sort with at least a couple dogs cashing tonight and we see one with a great chance for an outright win in the Midwest Region when the #10 seed Syracuse Orange take on the #11 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs in an improbable Sweet 16 matchup at the United Center in Chicago between two teams that were very close to being left out of the Big Dance. Gonzaga ensured they were part of the field by winning the WCC Tournament and based on St Mary’s being left out it’s a near certainty that Gonzaga would have been NIT bound had they not claimed the auto bid from their conference. Syracuse ended up getting in quite comfortably as a #10 seed as they weren’t even part of the First Four play in round but many felt when the Orange lost to Pitt in the first round of the ACC Tournament it looked like there was a strong possibility they would be left out of the Dance. Both teams played fantastic last weekend to get to this point but Gonzaga has been made a substantial favorite here and regardless of what happened last weekend we still feel the Bulldogs have been an overrated team all season and Syracuse is tremendous value getting points in a matchup where they look to be the actual favorites to win outright. To Gonzaga’s credit, the Bulldogs have finally developed an identity without Przemek Karnowski which is predicated on getting the ball to the duo of Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis. Wiltjer and Sabonis have developed a fantastic inside/outside presence for Gonzaga but Sabonis is far less effective shooting jumpers and while Wiltjer is hitting threes at nearly a 50 percent clip this season there will be a ton of pressure on him from long range against a stifling Syracuse zone defense that Jim Boeheim has once again perfected in the nick of time and is the catalyst for another Orange tournament run. When Syracuse has all five guys contributing and playing together their 2-3 zone can be as devastating as Virginia’s heralded defense and one huge advantage Syracuse will have tonight is the fact Gonzaga hasn’t seen anything like this in the watered down WCC this season. The Syracuse 2-3 will neutralize Sabonis making Gonzaga’s perimeter players step up and while Wiltjer shoots the ball extremely well, the Bulldogs don’t have another serious perimeter threat which will allow Syracuse to key on Wiltjer and force the other Gonzaga guards to beat them with the long ball. Dayton and Middle Tennessee hadn’t seen anything like the Syracuse 2-3 either and both teams looked totally clueless on offense with the Flyers shooting just 32.1 percent from the field and Middle Tennessee State, a team that put up 90 against Michigan State last week, held to just 29.7 percent from the field. Syracuse held these two opponents to an average of 50.5 points over the two tournament games and we see Gonzaga with a similar make up to Dayton and not a team built for success against a stifling 2-3. We have never been high on Kyle Wiltjer as a game changer but what he has done over the past couple weeks has certainly been impressive, playing a huge role in carrying Gonzaga to the Sweet 16. When you study Wiltjer’s shot spray charts he shoots his highest percentage from head on and in the paint, two very difficult looks to get against the 2-3 zone. Sabonis rarely ventures outside the three point arc and does all of his work close to the basket which means clean looks will be at a huge premium the way Tyler Roberson and DaJuan Coleman have stepped up and controlled the paint. What this means for Gonzaga is main scoring option #1, Wiltjer, might get looks from three but they will be further behind the arc and not in his comfort spots and main scoring option #2, Sabonis, will essentially have a hand in his face from Roberson or Coleman on every shot he takes all night. Gonzaga only has one other double digit scorer on the team in Eric McClellan who is a shade over 10 points per game and with Syracuse likely to contain the likes of Wiltjer and Sabonis we just don’t see where the points are going to come from tonight for the Bulldogs. The last couple weeks excluded this was widely considered a down year for Gonzaga as well as the West Coast Conference as neither St Mary’s or BYU, perennial NCAA tournament players, were good enough to warrant an at large bid. While Gonzaga has turned lemons into lemonade here to an extent with a Sweet 16 run, we this team in over their heads against a Syracuse team that has seen it all in the vastly superior ACC Conference and competed against some of the best teams in the country night in and night out all season. At the very least the number should be a pick in a game between these two teams at a true neutral venue and we think the odds makers made a huge mistake making Gonzaga a substantial favorite. If Syracuse doesn’t win tonight it will be because they beat themselves by not executing at the offensive end but the Orange won’t beat themselves badly enough to not be right in this in the final minutes and either way we expect an easy cover of the number and most likely an outright win as ‘Cuse keeps their dream alive and advances to the Elite 8.

$$$$ Syracuse +4.5

I alluded to the fact Gonzaga hasn't seen a defense like the Syracuse 2-3 in WCC play but after looking further the Zags haven't seen a zone all season. If Syracuse comes to play tonight they win comfortably. My full card for today is up at topflightsportsinfo dot com.

Lets cash this ticket tonight

Macwestie1

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 154381

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 3:31 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by TopFlightSports:

Syracuse (9:40PM ET CBS) – With the favorites all winning and covering yesterday we have to expect a market correction of some sort with at least a couple dogs cashing tonight and we see one with a great chance for an outright win in the Midwest Region when the #10 seed Syracuse Orange take on the #11 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs in an improbable Sweet 16 matchup at the United Center in Chicago between two teams that were very close to being left out of the Big Dance. Gonzaga ensured they were part of the field by winning the WCC Tournament and based on St Mary’s being left out it’s a near certainty that Gonzaga would have been NIT bound had they not claimed the auto bid from their conference. Syracuse ended up getting in quite comfortably as a #10 seed as they weren’t even part of the First Four play in round but many felt when the Orange lost to Pitt in the first round of the ACC Tournament it looked like there was a strong possibility they would be left out of the Dance. Both teams played fantastic last weekend to get to this point but Gonzaga has been made a substantial favorite here and regardless of what happened last weekend we still feel the Bulldogs have been an overrated team all season and Syracuse is tremendous value getting points in a matchup where they look to be the actual favorites to win outright. To Gonzaga’s credit, the Bulldogs have finally developed an identity without Przemek Karnowski which is predicated on getting the ball to the duo of Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis. Wiltjer and Sabonis have developed a fantastic inside/outside presence for Gonzaga but Sabonis is far less effective shooting jumpers and while Wiltjer is hitting threes at nearly a 50 percent clip this season there will be a ton of pressure on him from long range against a stifling Syracuse zone defense that Jim Boeheim has once again perfected in the nick of time and is the catalyst for another Orange tournament run. When Syracuse has all five guys contributing and playing together their 2-3 zone can be as devastating as Virginia’s heralded defense and one huge advantage Syracuse will have tonight is the fact Gonzaga hasn’t seen anything like this in the watered down WCC this season. The Syracuse 2-3 will neutralize Sabonis making Gonzaga’s perimeter players step up and while Wiltjer shoots the ball extremely well, the Bulldogs don’t have another serious perimeter threat which will allow Syracuse to key on Wiltjer and force the other Gonzaga guards to beat them with the long ball. Dayton and Middle Tennessee hadn’t seen anything like the Syracuse 2-3 either and both teams looked totally clueless on offense with the Flyers shooting just 32.1 percent from the field and Middle Tennessee State, a team that put up 90 against Michigan State last week, held to just 29.7 percent from the field. Syracuse held these two opponents to an average of 50.5 points over the two tournament games and we see Gonzaga with a similar make up to Dayton and not a team built for success against a stifling 2-3. We have never been high on Kyle Wiltjer as a game changer but what he has done over the past couple weeks has certainly been impressive, playing a huge role in carrying Gonzaga to the Sweet 16. When you study Wiltjer’s shot spray charts he shoots his highest percentage from head on and in the paint, two very difficult looks to get against the 2-3 zone. Sabonis rarely ventures outside the three point arc and does all of his work close to the basket which means clean looks will be at a huge premium the way Tyler Roberson and DaJuan Coleman have stepped up and controlled the paint. What this means for Gonzaga is main scoring option #1, Wiltjer, might get looks from three but they will be further behind the arc and not in his comfort spots and main scoring option #2, Sabonis, will essentially have a hand in his face from Roberson or Coleman on every shot he takes all night. Gonzaga only has one other double digit scorer on the team in Eric McClellan who is a shade over 10 points per game and with Syracuse likely to contain the likes of Wiltjer and Sabonis we just don’t see where the points are going to come from tonight for the Bulldogs. The last couple weeks excluded this was widely considered a down year for Gonzaga as well as the West Coast Conference as neither St Mary’s or BYU, perennial NCAA tournament players, were good enough to warrant an at large bid. While Gonzaga has turned lemons into lemonade here to an extent with a Sweet 16 run, we this team in over their heads against a Syracuse team that has seen it all in the vastly superior ACC Conference and competed against some of the best teams in the country night in and night out all season. At the very least the number should be a pick in a game between these two teams at a true neutral venue and we think the odds makers made a huge mistake making Gonzaga a substantial favorite. If Syracuse doesn’t win tonight it will be because they beat themselves by not executing at the offensive end but the Orange won’t beat themselves badly enough to not be right in this in the final minutes and either way we expect an easy cover of the number and most likely an outright win as ‘Cuse keeps their dream alive and advances to the Elite 8.

$$$$ Syracuse +4.5

I alluded to the fact Gonzaga hasn't seen a defense like the Syracuse 2-3 in WCC play but after looking further the Zags haven't seen a zone all season. If Syracuse comes to play tonight they win comfortably. My full card for today is up at topflightsportsinfo dot com.

Lets cash this ticket tonight

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!

0

Quote Originally Posted by TopFlightSports:

Syracuse (9:40PM ET CBS) – With the favorites all winning and covering yesterday we have to expect a market correction of some sort with at least a couple dogs cashing tonight and we see one with a great chance for an outright win in the Midwest Region when the #10 seed Syracuse Orange take on the #11 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs in an improbable Sweet 16 matchup at the United Center in Chicago between two teams that were very close to being left out of the Big Dance. Gonzaga ensured they were part of the field by winning the WCC Tournament and based on St Mary’s being left out it’s a near certainty that Gonzaga would have been NIT bound had they not claimed the auto bid from their conference. Syracuse ended up getting in quite comfortably as a #10 seed as they weren’t even part of the First Four play in round but many felt when the Orange lost to Pitt in the first round of the ACC Tournament it looked like there was a strong possibility they would be left out of the Dance. Both teams played fantastic last weekend to get to this point but Gonzaga has been made a substantial favorite here and regardless of what happened last weekend we still feel the Bulldogs have been an overrated team all season and Syracuse is tremendous value getting points in a matchup where they look to be the actual favorites to win outright. To Gonzaga’s credit, the Bulldogs have finally developed an identity without Przemek Karnowski which is predicated on getting the ball to the duo of Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis. Wiltjer and Sabonis have developed a fantastic inside/outside presence for Gonzaga but Sabonis is far less effective shooting jumpers and while Wiltjer is hitting threes at nearly a 50 percent clip this season there will be a ton of pressure on him from long range against a stifling Syracuse zone defense that Jim Boeheim has once again perfected in the nick of time and is the catalyst for another Orange tournament run. When Syracuse has all five guys contributing and playing together their 2-3 zone can be as devastating as Virginia’s heralded defense and one huge advantage Syracuse will have tonight is the fact Gonzaga hasn’t seen anything like this in the watered down WCC this season. The Syracuse 2-3 will neutralize Sabonis making Gonzaga’s perimeter players step up and while Wiltjer shoots the ball extremely well, the Bulldogs don’t have another serious perimeter threat which will allow Syracuse to key on Wiltjer and force the other Gonzaga guards to beat them with the long ball. Dayton and Middle Tennessee hadn’t seen anything like the Syracuse 2-3 either and both teams looked totally clueless on offense with the Flyers shooting just 32.1 percent from the field and Middle Tennessee State, a team that put up 90 against Michigan State last week, held to just 29.7 percent from the field. Syracuse held these two opponents to an average of 50.5 points over the two tournament games and we see Gonzaga with a similar make up to Dayton and not a team built for success against a stifling 2-3. We have never been high on Kyle Wiltjer as a game changer but what he has done over the past couple weeks has certainly been impressive, playing a huge role in carrying Gonzaga to the Sweet 16. When you study Wiltjer’s shot spray charts he shoots his highest percentage from head on and in the paint, two very difficult looks to get against the 2-3 zone. Sabonis rarely ventures outside the three point arc and does all of his work close to the basket which means clean looks will be at a huge premium the way Tyler Roberson and DaJuan Coleman have stepped up and controlled the paint. What this means for Gonzaga is main scoring option #1, Wiltjer, might get looks from three but they will be further behind the arc and not in his comfort spots and main scoring option #2, Sabonis, will essentially have a hand in his face from Roberson or Coleman on every shot he takes all night. Gonzaga only has one other double digit scorer on the team in Eric McClellan who is a shade over 10 points per game and with Syracuse likely to contain the likes of Wiltjer and Sabonis we just don’t see where the points are going to come from tonight for the Bulldogs. The last couple weeks excluded this was widely considered a down year for Gonzaga as well as the West Coast Conference as neither St Mary’s or BYU, perennial NCAA tournament players, were good enough to warrant an at large bid. While Gonzaga has turned lemons into lemonade here to an extent with a Sweet 16 run, we this team in over their heads against a Syracuse team that has seen it all in the vastly superior ACC Conference and competed against some of the best teams in the country night in and night out all season. At the very least the number should be a pick in a game between these two teams at a true neutral venue and we think the odds makers made a huge mistake making Gonzaga a substantial favorite. If Syracuse doesn’t win tonight it will be because they beat themselves by not executing at the offensive end but the Orange won’t beat themselves badly enough to not be right in this in the final minutes and either way we expect an easy cover of the number and most likely an outright win as ‘Cuse keeps their dream alive and advances to the Elite 8.

$$$$ Syracuse +4.5

I alluded to the fact Gonzaga hasn't seen a defense like the Syracuse 2-3 in WCC play but after looking further the Zags haven't seen a zone all season. If Syracuse comes to play tonight they win comfortably. My full card for today is up at topflightsportsinfo dot com.

Lets cash this ticket tonight

rf_dawg

Veteran

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2198

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 4:28 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by Mermanmaid:

Hey RF, do you mean Haiti/ Panama under 2?

Don't see them playing Jamaica today.

Haha...yes, thank you. This is what I get for doing this at midnight. Indeed, it should be Haiti/Panama but I also like the under in Jamaica/Costa Rica too.

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Drock13

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 66

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 4:30 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

With all 4 favorites covering on Thursday I hope to see quite a few people taking the points on Friday.

Except for Notre Dame! Go Irish!!!

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rebel1927

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 140

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 4:34 PM ET #32

ND -1.5 against Wisconsin $$$$

1. Offense, offense, offense. ND can score where as Wisconsin is a nightmare. Their best player is in his worst slump of his career. ND has shot over 54% from inside the arc this tournament. Wisconsin would need an absolute 180 degree turn around to score enough points to win this game.

2. Augustine is the prototypical player who dominates weaker comp but gets bullied against the Kentuckys of the world. Tonight he will match up with a good freshman who he will handle for a double double. When Augustine is scoring and rebounding ND is tough to beat.

3. Coaching - Bo Ryan is watching this one from home. Brey is a tournament vet coach who knows this ND team inside out.

Overall I think the scoring will be too much for Wisconsin. This is a team that had low expectations going into the conference tournaments - They have well exceeded them but it's time to go home.

Good luck!

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soxfann1

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2015

Posts: 397

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 4:45 PM ET #33

I'm fading both Big 10 teams tonight as I think they have gone far enough Wiscy has the better chance of the 2 tonight IMO

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rebel1927

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 140

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 4:51 PM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by gamblingallday:

I disagree with a lot of what you wrote.

1) Wisconsin actually has one of the best defenses in college basketball. I dont know how one would dispute that.

2) Wisconsin didnt have great but unsustainable 3 point shooting to win their 2 tourney games. The Badgers shot 29.6% from 3 against Xavier, and 21.1% from 3 against Pittsburgh. For the season Wisconsin shoots 35.1% from 3.

3) If anything ND has been shooting field goals at a unsustainable rate. They shot 58.1% from the field against Michigan. They shot 56.9% from the field against SFA and almost lost. For the year they shoot 47.6%.

4) If you discount Wisconsin's 2 wins because it was a coin flipish at the end of their games, you have to discount ND's win against Stephen F Austin as that was even more of a flukish win. Also I think most would agree that Wisconsin's 2 opponents, Pitt and Xavier, were better teams than Michigan and SFA.

My pick is Wisconsin +1.5. I like their grinding defense even against great offense like ND. Koenig getting his shooting touch back, Happs post game and NDs general bad defense I think will be enough for the Badgers to get the win. Hopefully NDs subpar defenders help Hayes play better offensively. This is not a big play for me and I dont really like the games today. I was flipping back and forth between betting Wisconsin or Iowa St but settled on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin +1.5

I 100% agree with you that Wisconsin has a very strong defense but I don't consider them an athletic defense like SFA - Wisconsin is a high effort defense and I feel like ND will be able to get in the 70's - Do you think Wisconsin can score 70 in this game?

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Jack Ryan

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 1589

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 5:03 PM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by gamblingallday:

I disagree with a lot of what you wrote.

1) Wisconsin actually has one of the best defenses in college basketball. I dont know how one would dispute that.

2) Wisconsin didnt have great but unsustainable 3 point shooting to win their 2 tourney games. The Badgers shot 29.6% from 3 against Xavier, and 21.1% from 3 against Pittsburgh. For the season Wisconsin shoots 35.1% from 3.

3) If anything ND has been shooting field goals at a unsustainable rate. They shot 58.1% from the field against Michigan. They shot 56.9% from the field against SFA and almost lost. For the year they shoot 47.6%.

4) If you discount Wisconsin's 2 wins because it was a coin flipish at the end of their games, you have to discount ND's win against Stephen F Austin as that was even more of a flukish win. Also I think most would agree that Wisconsin's 2 opponents, Pitt and Xavier, were better teams than Michigan and SFA.

My pick is Wisconsin +1.5. I like their grinding defense even against great offense like ND. Koenig getting his shooting touch back, Happs post game and NDs general bad defense I think will be enough for the Badgers to get the win. Hopefully NDs subpar defenders help Hayes play better offensively. This is not a big play for me and I dont really like the games today. I was flipping back and forth between betting Wisconsin or Iowa St but settled on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin +1.5

Huge Irish Fan but if the game is tight at the end all Wisky has to do is foul Auguste...He has been atrocious at the foul line!

Jack Ryan

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bk1374

Captain

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 7891

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 5:28 PM ET #36

Slow week for soccer since the big leagues are on International break, and I am just not as confident on these friendlies and WC Qualifiers. My $$$$ record is at 3-3 I believe, all soccer plays.

I do have one $$$$ play for EARLY Saturday morning in Australia (330AM CDT). Going to the Brisbane over well AGAIN, as I see no reason to stop until they start letting up some.

$$$$

Brisbane Roar - Sydney OV 2.75 (-117)

$$$$

Not much to say except that Roar have been an over machine to say the least. Nine of their last ten matches have had 4 goals or more, and the one that didn't had 3. No reason to stop, Sydney is not averse to playing in goal scoring affairs. Nothing is a lock, but I don't see any reason to hold back on this one. Sydney have been shut out in 2 of their last 5 road matches, but in general they can score, and get scored on when they are on the road. These two played back in Jan. and hit 4 goals. I think we see 3 at minimum here. Nothing is a lock though, and no guarantees, so not overdoing it, but making it a 2 unit play, and I usually don't go much higher than that.

If that's not a sufficient write up to be tracked, no worries. Wanted to share either way!

BOL everyone.......................

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gbpackman

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 5107

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 5:31 PM ET #37

New Jersey Devils +160

the Caps really don't care about this game and will come out flat. The Devils are fired up with their new goalie Scott Wedgewood.Wedgewood had a stick save on a breakaway which shows he can mind the nets.

Notre Dame under 130.5

Defense, specifically keeping the opponent's leading scorer in check, has been key for the Badgers through two NCAA Tournament games as Wisconsin held Pittsburgh's Michael Young nearly 10 points below his 15.7 average and Xavier's Trevon Bluiett to eight points below his usual 15.1-point standard.

Notre Dame has committed 16 more turnovers than it has forced during the NCAA Tournament (29-13). When you commit so many turnovers the coach tells the players to be more cautious, which keeps the offense more conservative and less potent. This usually leads to a lower score.

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gbpackman

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 5107

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 5:40 PM ET #38

Since beginning the season with a 2-7 record in games decided by six points or fewer during their 9-9 start, the Badgers are 5-0 in such contests (including 2-0 in the Big Dance) since.

Makes you think twice about betting on Notre Dame

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gbpackman

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 5107

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 5:50 PM ET #39

Memphis Grizzlies +13.5

3/25 SAN Tony Parker Out

3/25 SAN Tim Duncan Out

324 SAN Kawhi Leonard Out

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chuckles394

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 1928

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 6:05 PM ET #40

Contrast in styles when Iowa St takes on Virginia. I'm taking

VIRGINIA-6

I love watching Iowa St play when theyare hitting on all cylinders but this is a terrible match for the Cyclones.Monte Morris likes to penetrate and dish to open outside shooters I don't see him being able to penetrate the pack line D of the Cavaliers. Inside I see Gill and Tobey having a field day against the anemic Cyclones defense. Their only rim protector Jameel McKay has a propensity for picking up cheap fouls and once he is on the bench Niang and Burton don't have the size to match up with Virginia. If Iowa St can't hit over 45% from the three point line they have no chance to beat Virginia.

This is my best bet of the night.

Bol Fade or Follow.

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gbpackman

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 5107

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 6:40 PM ET #41

Last pick

BADGERS!

ND extremely short bench

WISC just seems like they're more focused and ND doesn't play team defense as well as WISC

Among a host of impressive college coaching jobs this season, perhaps none have been quite as remarkable as what Gard has done with the Badgers. On Jan. 12, Wisconsin was 9-9 overall and 1-4 in the Big Ten.

His dad died of cancer and I think his team gets a lot of inspiration to win for their coach.

KC Chiefs rallied when one of their players died.

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JBecks12

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 957

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 6:45 PM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

Well I won't have a $$$$ today but I will have a large play going in early if the stars align. Iowa State currently sits at +6.5 with my book. I really hope it gets to 7 as I plan on buying the 3 points and laying the juice of -165 to get them at +10. Iowa State has been beat by exactly 10 twice this season but never more (knock on wood). Iowa State will adjust to Virginia's defense and limit their turnovers. The reason being and X Factor here is the Cyclones Point Guard Morris who has one of the best assist to turnover ratios in the country. Give me Iowa State +10 at -165 pretty please betting public.

Just out of curiosity Bubba, why would you not want to tease this with 4 points like (iowa state +10 with virginia -2) at -110 or if you prefer a 5pt teaser (iowa state +11 with virginia -1) -120. It is same bet one one game with less chalk. GL on your play

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wmi799

Legend

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 33070

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 6:46 PM ET #43

Wisky/ND - The first team to 61 wins. If neither does, then it's all Wisky

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad

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tuck321

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2002

Posts: 20165

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 6:57 PM ET #44

Did a 6 pointer with Iowa and Syracuse.

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Hoyasaxa

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 5092

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 7:26 PM ET #45

Do certain teams annoy you and even worse kill you at the window?

I struggle big time with Wisconsin Football and Basketball...generally with similar all Defense, nonathletic teams-they play conservative boring styles-right into athletic, low IQ opponents...anyone agree?

I wish they would just go away-look what it took to get rid of UNI...good luck ND backers-I'm with you and scared...

Note to self-take all these teams in first round-sure $$

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gbpackman

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 5107

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 8:01 PM ET #46

BRICK BRICK BRICK

WHAT'S THAT SOUND???

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lakerz

Veteran

Joined: May, 2014

Posts: 2515

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 8:37 PM ET #47

No $$$$ play from me today, went all day without power. I had locked in a few sweet 16 plays last night though so will ride with those. Also locked in Oregon -1 vs Oklahoma. Just like the way they are playing.

Man, looks like the Wisky Badgers are up to their old tricks again! Notre Dame only 19 points at halftime? Yikes. I hate Wisconsin, they always ruin my bets ha ha. I had a big ML parlay going last round with Oregon beating St Joes and Xavier beating Wisconsin. I thought I had Xavier win sowed up ... right until that kid hit that 30ft 3 pointer and then that crazy game winner falling out of bounds. Thanks a lot kid, you just cost me some bones ha ha.

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lakerz

Veteran

Joined: May, 2014

Posts: 2515

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 8:49 PM ET #48

Cool, got the top 2 leader board posters with $$$$ plays today.

I had alraedy locked in Syracuse +4 last night, but good to know that topflightsports likes them in this game.

rf_dawg - tailed you on that UNC under, although by the time I bet it the total was down to 158. Hopefully that extra 1.5 points won't come back to haunt me.

Also got Iowa St, not looking good with only 7 minutes to play. One never knows though.

Took Indiana +5.5 for the evening game. If all favorites roll again today I may have to take a break from NCAA and focus on NBA once again.

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gbpackman

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 5107

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 9:25 PM ET #49

Quote Originally Posted by gbpackman:

Memphis Grizzlies +13.5

3/25 SAN Tony Parker Out

3/25 SAN Tim Duncan Out

WTF

THEY'RE BOTH IN!!!

SOMEONE'S LYIN!!!

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wmi799

Legend

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 33070

Posted: Mar. 25, 2016 - 9:34 PM ET #50

Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

Wisky/ND - The first team to 61 wins. If neither does, then it's all Wisky

Called that one! ND 61-56!

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad

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