Bubba's $$$$ Thread SATURDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.19.16

Little Rock is:

• 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12

Iowa State is:

• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record

iowa state -5.5

SUNDAY $$$$ NOTRE DAME -1.5

Something strange is happening in Vegas with the lack of respect that some of the ACC contingent is getting in these NCAA playoffs. Amazingly, earlier today Miami was actually a 1.5 dog to Wichita State and now the Irish are just a 1.5 favorite to S.F. Austin. SFA shocked me with their upset of West Va. yesterday and I will admit to not knowing much about their team. I'm simply playing the odds that Notre Dame's 20-ish strength of schedule will persevere vs. the 200-ish strength of schedule that SFA is used to seeing. The ACC record in this tournament is far and away the best in the business with just a single loss. I look for that to continue here.

Notre Dame should be a 4 point favorite here, so I'll gladly take the short line.

NOTRE DAME -1.5 $$$$

Notre Dame is 5-5 vs. the top 25 with a 21st SOS (strength of schedule) while SFA won their first game yesterday vs. a top 25 opponent to even that record at 1-1 (the loss was a 42 point loss to Baylor) with a 303 SOS.

Stephen F Austin v Notre Dame

This is a classic 1^st round upset followed by a 2^nd round dud from SFA.

ND plays in the ACC. SFA comes out of the Southland Conference. During the regular season, ND had 5 impressive wins beating Duke (twice), N. Carolina, Iowa, and Louisville. While SFA didn't beat any good teams, they did finish 18-0 in the Southland.

Round of 64

How did SFA upset WVU?

SFA's senior forward Thomas Walkup scored 33 of SFA's 70 points. The bulk of his points came from the foul line where he made 19-20. He also went 2-3 from beyond the arc. This was a surprising performance. His only other breakout game against a decent team this year was scoring 30 in a loss to N. Iowa.

Walkup averaged 18 pts per game this year and shot 27% from 3.

SFA's other four starters combined for 14 points against WVU.

How did ND upset Michigan?

ND fought it's way back from an 11 pt halftime deficit. The starters combined for 53 of the team's 70 points. ND has won with balanced scoring this year with 4 of 5 of their starters averaging double digits. Their 6^th man Colson also averages double digits.

In their wins over ranked opponents, they have had balanced scoring. What's more impressive is their ability to hang in tough games. They rallied from halftime deficits this year to defeat Duke twice, N. Carolina, and Louisville. I like that kind of grittiness.

For SFA to win this game, they would need another unbelievable performance from Walkup. And they would need to pile up points from the foul line, which they don't normally do. Against WVU, the Lumberjacks got to the free throw line 39 times and made 29. I don't see that happening again. Also, WVU shot the ball poorly---31 % from the field and 19% from three. As a team this season WVU averaged 45% FG and 33% from three.

SFA made it to the dance and scored a big upset. Good for them. But I think they're done now. A lot of things went right for them against WVU. However, against this battle tested ND team, the stars won't align for them again.

$$$ ND -1.5 $$$