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Can anyone explain the Wichita State -2 @ Alabama line?

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Posted: #26

I won with the Shockers against the Vols Sat.Vols a poorly coached team. Shockers parameter play was god awful especially in the 1st half

 
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Posted: #27
Tide @ Home,  
 
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Posted: #28
Train totally agree. Bama 1st half.
 
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Posted: #29
I do not care about any team or its make up as that is the odds makers job with point spreads as all games

I play the odds makers win percentage at what streak levels the teams are at as it is the odds makers job to balance out the plays and if you review their success i believe you will find in most cases they will prevail 

3-0 win streaks to stop thru 8-0 this season is 68-55 = +13
3-0 win streaks to stop are 45-32
4-0 Win Streaks to stop are 16-13
5-0 Win Streaks to stop are 3-7 
6-0 Win streaks to stop are 3-3
7-0 Win Streaks to stop are 1-0 

Odds makers are up +13 wins

______________________________
0-3 Odds makers % to correct loss streaks -8
0-3 loss streaks to cover 39-34
0-4 loss streaks to cover 16-11
0-5 loss streaks to cover 2-6 
0-6 loss streaks to cover 3-1 
0-7 no team has reached this level yet

Vegas doesn't care about the teams or its records or make up as its all about the # and its the odds makers job to see they do not lose money
 
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Posted: #30
bama is 3-4 ATS for season 

odds  makers have not been able to get control of level 5's both W/L to date.I do not see them getting control of Wichita St tonight as they like a little intrigue too as by level 8 they will still have all their money and usually as streak rises so does the wagers and in all honesty that is where they like the wagers to be 
 
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Posted: #31
Guard play is pretty even here....whatever frontcourt will win the game
 
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Posted: #32
I pointed out Penn St to show the odds makers ability to control that game and stop them as they did and not for any love for Penn St as i have none for Wichita st or Oregon who should have a problem as Penn st had 

Off to casino BOL T Night and sorry for hi jacking thread 

was fun 


 
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Posted: #33
Based on everything in this thread despite my want to side with Vegas and take Bama, I have to go with the Shockers -2.

Thanks to all the contributors.
 
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Posted: #34

Shockers have been a solid play on the road this year and overall against the spread. also 5 and 0 against the spread in there last 5. Hard to bet against a team that's been money all year thus far.

 Is Bama the team that knocks them off. Not to confident in that one. Best of luck

 
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Posted: #35
Bama is dying for a win here against a high profile team.  The athletic dept is growing tired of grant and this season is his job imo.  He finally has scheduled a hard non conference schedule but it doesn't do any good if you do not win any games.  This is the most must win game for us in a long time and I am a season ticket holder and I hope we at least get 10k fans in there tonight.  We have averaged around 5k all season and it has been such a disappointment.  We have a undersized big man in Jacobs who has been the best surprise all season and plays a lot bigger.  If foul trouble happens Engstrom and Taylor, a prized recruit who is a work in progress, it can be a long night.  Our guard play is a underrated pair in Retin O. and Releford and they both can get to the lane whenever they so choose and can hit the outside three.  They are both sound free throw shooters.  Tonight we offering 8,00 tickets to try and sell Coleman out for the first time in a long time.  I believe Wichita is running into a buzz saw tonight and Bama finally gets the hard fought win.  Remember their four losses are to three tourney teams and USF is a bad loss imo.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Bama +1 or 1.5 1st H is the play

I like it! GL Train
 
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Posted: #37
Sorry guys just got back from casino and all wagers are in and see where i made a small mistake on loss streaks and thought something was wrong but in a hurry to get to place wagers i was not able to proof read what i posted and just want to end on a correct note and wish all a good night

the win streak record for odds makers is correct +13
the loss streak totals are not as 60 covers and 52 non covers = a +8 wins for loss streaks to cover not a -8 
that gives the odds makers a +21 for the season to stop all streaks at all levels combined That is a healthy win % for casinos and as season continues i expect it to contimue and so will their profits
 
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Posted: #38
umm
 
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Posted: #39
Stevo -  quit it with your streaks man.  I told you...you need to know the teams, know where they're playing, know who's out, and know the spreads.    You can pick and choose whatever streaks you want to suit whatever side you're choosing. But ultimately, trying to take the position of the sportsbook against the public, solely based off these streaks is absolutely retarded
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Bama +1 or 1.5 1st H is the play
 
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Posted: #41
And the Shockers take it by 5. Thread contributors win by majority decision.

While Bama kept it close almost all the way through, talent prevailed against this short line.

Even if this line was 5.5, the books would have still made a nice profit as I couldn't see them backing Bama at that line either.

Books had to have gotten shredded in this game.

I feel for ya Payne if you were at this game. Had I read your post sooner, I might have rolled with the Tide.
 
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Posted: #42
afternoon guys just wanted to thank all for allowing me to post my thoughts in this thread and hope maybe i swayed a couple

These streaks are important as teams rise to the higher level its the odds makers job to stop them both W and L otherwise JP will clean up

Most uninformed gamblers out there lay their money on the winners and we all know the teams can't continue to win other wise Vegas will go broke

Oregon backers are in for a rude awaking 

Its not about the teams,players,home away,etc its all about the Odds makers and how well they place the line as they are the true winners and losers in all this and their professional life is in the balance
 
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Posted: #43
Stevo - oh my god man, throw the trends you use to make your decisions out of the window. Its all about the teams, the players, where they're playing, who is out, and what the spread is.  Dont take into consideration these nutso trends, that dont have anything to do with this particular game, and the trends being used are from yesterday, last week and last month, and have nothing to do with these 2 teams. Vegas makes lines not to predict the winner, but to try to get balanced action. Stop taking what happened yesterday, last week or  last month, with different teams playing each other into consideration at all. 
What are you going to do with this information today? 
the win streak record for odds makers is correct +13
the loss streak totals are not as 60 covers and 52 non covers = a +8 wins for loss streaks to cover not a-8 
that gives the odds makers a +21 for the season to stop all streaks at all levels combined
 
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Posted: #44
keffer there not trends, there actual plays happening today not yesterday .yes the record continues but it is present actions by odds makers trying to balance out plays as vegas wants and for them to place incorrect lines on teams is against what vegas wants.They know all that prior to placing lines

Look at yesterday odds Makers did not figure the Oregon play correctly to get a balanced outcome
7-0 Oregon Blows away Cal Irvine as they cover by 28 giving 12 per covers which is very embarrassing to Odds makers just giving 12 and they win 91-63 = a 28 point advantage.
Is this a Balanced approach Vegas was looking for 
 
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Posted: #45
Its not about the teams or thier make ups or home away trends etc its all about the odds makers and their record in making the correct lines

We all know everything about the TEAM its the lines the odds makers develop that is the governing factor and they better get it right 

 
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Posted: #46
after yesterday lets see how well Umass does today and they are exactly at same win streak as oregon was yesterday

so Umass will win by 28 and just allow 12 or what ever the outcome will be

look i was spot on about Wichita St and they covered easily and were 5-0 and record showed odds makers have not been applying the correct point spread on all teams at 5-0 this season to date 
All i'm saying is its all about the odds makers and the lines they develop as they have all the other info  as we JP
 
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Posted: #47
Considering I had Oregon-15.5 alternative yesterday, knowing the teams, the players, where they're playing, who's out, and knowing the spread are very important.    I dont believe Umass is a strong enough play in my opinion, looking at this game individually, but if you want to take the the trends and bet according to them, that is your prerogative, and I wish you all the best of luck with your system man...if it works for you, keep at it
 
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Posted: #48
all i'm saying is if gamblers followed the odds makers as well as they follow the teams they would be the wiser and much richer people

Odds makers are professional people that know far more than any of us as its their job to know everything about a team and all its highs and lows and i'm talking not only about the past but also current times and to place a negative 12 on Oregon and they cover by 28 shows they were lacking in evaluating that contest whether it was Oregon or Irvine when reviewing teams where they were lacking 
 
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Posted: #49
You can never know everything about every team and all i'm saying is it is easier to judge odds amkers than teams as they are the ones Placing the lines
 
 
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Posted: #50
 I agree about Umass but the lines makers will be the judges as to if they cover or not today and after yesterdays screw up i expect a much closer game final and am leaning umass does not cover but we will see
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