Posted:
#26
USC et al...
I love watching sports, pretty much all sports! I find sprinkling .05U or .1U on a few games during the week that I know I will be able to watch has a direct correlation to my visual enjoyment of the event. Perhaps that satisfies the degenerate "gut" or "whim bet" in me and allows for larger and well thought out 1U plays. All of my $$$$'s will be 1U. This does not degrade in any way shape or form from the quality of my pick. I posted the "1U" on the previous play to reemphasize to other bettors that although this looks statistically like a slam dunk there is always an unknown when it comes to emotion, especially the type of emotional motivation felt after a close death (there are a plethora of examples of this in sports). The tails I have had on here have been at .1U each as I try to get comfortable with a few of the posters on here and decide if anyone is truly worth following. I don't adjust my U scale as I believe that can be misconceiving and make you look like a sleazeball capper who hits 45% of his picks but posts "10U Lock of the Century". I will occasionally have a larger than normal play but I'd say 90% of the time it does not fit the guidelines of this forum (primarily not under -129). Although I do see some success in varying bet sizes for a well seasoned and controlled handicapper it doesn't fit my strategy very well. Personally, on a great week I will only have 6-7 plays in my system and 3-4 of them don't fit the rules of this thread.
Agree with it or not I always buy the hook on non-integer plays and this renders nearly half of my 3-4 weekly $$$$'s ineligible for this thread. DAB12AC, I do have a spreadsheet of nearly all of my plays since 2013 and although I don't segregate "hook" plays from the others I can say that 2013 was my last losing year. I have found success in minimizing plays based on statistical analysis (75%) (I use Kenpom and Sagarin primarily weighted with a few common stats kept by the NCAA vs the line) while factoring in history(10%) and present conditions (15%) and if that 10% of juice on the hook can push my spreadsheet from a 75% chance of victory to 80% I will continue to buy it.
As for my $$$$ today I already placed my bet with my book and subsequently posted on this thread. It is a 1U Play on the Mocs to win .833U. After buying the 1/2 point it came out at -120. The thread rules state a $$$$ play must be under -129 and can't buy points. The former being the most important to me. Obviously this thread is not going to impact the type of wager I make and I don't see the point of posting something that isn't my true slip so USC please disregard all of my "hook" plays. I will still post them to the forum as they are beneficial but I will make sure to note the 1/2 point being bought.
USC,
I am not sure how new you are to Covers but I have been reading the forums here on and off for quite some time and sadly many forums get overrun with nonsense (trolling, negative banter, etc) that is unproductive to the end goal of making money. Thanks for starting and maintaining this forum. I hope it stays the course with detailed write-ups while staying highly positive and informative.
$$$$
GO MOCSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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