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Holmey's $$$$ Thread SUNDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.28.16

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Posted: #26
Would love Rugby bets!! I played 20 years worth of Club Rugby. Great Sport!!


Jack Ryan
 
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Posted: #27
$$$$ Iowa -4
Coming off a home loss to Wisconsin, I'm betting on Iowa entering this game motivated to regain their mid-season form, and play for a chance at the Big Ten title. Without Tate I think OSU has lost an emotional leader. They're undermanned against a team that can get up and down the floor quickly. Iowa's pace, motivation to right this ship, and the loss of Tate for OSU lead me to buy in on Iowa winning this game and covering the 4 point spread.

Also, if Iowa can win out and secure a top 3 seed in the tourney, they will likely play VERY close to home in Des Moines. Just additional motivation to close out strong.

Iowa -4 GL everyone!!
 
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Posted: #28

COLORADO now -7.5

 
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Posted: #29
@Jack Ryan,

Are you Tommy Boy?  Did you go to Marquette?


 
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Posted: #30
Nothing against rugby, but where I went to school it was for people that couldn't play football and liked to party a little to much.  Not that there is anything wrong with that (to quote Seinfeld).


 
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Posted: #31
michigan state -17.5
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by money_come2me:

COLORADO now -7.5



Yes, it was good idea to lock up before it increases.
And maybe will increase more.
 
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Posted: #33
$$$$ Iowa Hawkeyes -4

Iowa heads to Columbus today for a match up at Ohio State. What Iowa doesn't have going for them in this game is on the road, their ranked and Ohio State isn't and Uthoff looked sluggish last game.  However, both teams here really need this W.  Numbers match up with both KP and Sagarin (-7 and -5 Iowa respectively).  Iowa has shown how potent they can be offensively while OSU has struggled on that end of the floor.  Ohio State does play hard and are pretty scrappy but I think Ohio State took a huge hit with Tate being out for the season and it showed against Michigan State. Tate was the 3rd best offensive and 2nd best defensive player on this team statistically but many would argue he was the teams hardest worker.  Iowa has not been playing well recently but somehow only sit 1.5 games back of first place in the Big Ten.  Coincidentally with a win here today they will get a shot this week for sole possession of first place when they play the Hoosiers.  Iowa will not be looking ahead to the Hoosiers because without a win here today that game means nothing.  

$$$$ Iowa Hawkeyes -4


 
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Posted: #34
Holmey and other Posters,

Would like to say thank you for all you guys do. I do not post often but i really appreciate threads like this. Always great to hear others opinions.
 
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Posted: #35
$$$$ Play Arizona St. +8

Way too many of you are on Colorado. Usually when the line seems too good to be true....IT IS. Arizona St. is getting tremendous value here with losers of their last 3, and also 0-3 ATS. Colorado on the other hand is getting too much credit for the Arizona win. I see this as the Sun Devils are due for a cover at the very least. Throw the stats out the window as they mean nothing. I've said this many times, but Vegas uses those stats better than you can on your best day. It's funny how half of you rip off stats and trends that mean nothing when it really comes down to it. You're just trying to fill up the page and support your pick. 

I was 6-1-1 yesterday with an overall record of 23-13-5 on my own separate thread.

Use this as a lesson such as your IPFW megaload yesterday.
 
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Posted: #36
This board has helped me so much I felt the need to contribute something. (Although it is a contrarian play) I love Colorado today and that would have been my $$$$ but I did not want to tail on my first official prediction. I wanted to make an official $$$$$ play that I doubt people considered so here is the contrarian play based totally on math and line movement.

Here is the key stat on January 30th, 2016 the Mercer Bears beat UNCG at home 81-67.

The current line has been moving since Mercer has been awful as of late so I think there is some real value taking this at Mercer +4.5 also I calculate my own picks slightly differently I have access to a HPC lab where I run deep algorithmic based calculations. Although I never feel really strong until I get 75% value the probability of mercer to cover according to my algo is 72%. My suggestion is pick right before the game and you may get +5

For full disclosure here are the positives trends for UNCG that I am going with the math and betting against.

UNCG Spartans are: (versus terrible trends with mercer)
* 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against Southern Conference teams.
* 8-1 in their last 9 home games with a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

My first $$$$$ pick Mercer Bears +4.5 over UNCG

I also like and will be playing
Colorado -7
Creighton -13.5
And value play parlay (math is favorable and if Colorado covers you can hedge for the middle which shows 67% probability)
Colorado -6 {-130}(purchased full point)
California -350 money line]

With the help of this board and my own picks I am 12-3 this week with two of my three losses being on NHL and Soccer both of which I have an insufficient amount of trend data. Thanks guys for all of your insight this has been a great week for me thanks to the people,on this thread! 
 
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Posted: #37
$$$$ Play - Seton Hall Pirates +2.5

One trend stands out to me, Seton Hall is 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams with winning road records. Both teams are rolling: Xavier just beat #1 Nova this week at home and Seton Hall has won 7 of 8. But I'm hoping for a let down from Xavier. Isaiah Whitehead is finally living up to his hype, and I think he'll lead Seton Hall to a win, but I'll take the points. Xavier dominates teams on the boards, but I think Seton Hall has the bigs to hang with XU.


 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by gatorbear:

Nothing against rugby, but where I went to school it was for people that couldn't play football and liked to party a little to much.  Not that there is anything wrong with that (to quote Seinfeld).




Pretty fair assessment!  I hated having to wear helmets! Felt like it cut my radar array off. The goal was to work up a thirst for the post game Festivus. Also Known as the Third Half.  Played at Defiance College, Miami of Ohio, Toledo Celtics and also San Francisco while in the Navy.

"Good Times and Riches and Sonfabitches...I've seen more than I can recall"  - Jimmy Buffett


Jack Ryan
 
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Posted: #39
@Poops,

I see this as the Sun Devils are due for a cover at the very least. Throw the stats out the window as they mean nothing. I've said this many times,

This is YOUR reasoning why ASU covers??????   At least stats show a trend.  This does nothing.  They are due.  Wow, alot of thought put into that one.  Where is your record confirmed so I can take a look at it.  Also, everyone on this thread that is tracked gives a write up as to why they opt for one team over the other.  Not that they are due.   Do you homework and come back later with real info.

Have a great day.



 
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Posted: #40
I know Jimmy B well Mr. Ryan. Good stuff and good luck today.

I we didn't laugh we would all go insane.  guess who



 
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Posted: #41
Seton Hall (12:30PM ET Fox Sports 1) – Lets keep the $$$$ rolling in the Big East where the Seton Hall Pirates take on the Xavier Musketeers in a massive Big East matchup at the Prudential Center in Newark.  We backed Xavier on Wednesday to pull the big upset of Villanova and the Musketeers came through with flying colors and we are now going to ask Seton Hall to return the favor to them as the Pirates find themselves in literally the exact same spot.  Seton Hall is quietly 20-7 on the season and this team has been lights out the past month, winners of seven of their last eight games including three straight with the only loss on that stretch coming to a quality Butler team.  Seton Hall should be comfortably in the field of 68 for the NCAA Tournament this season but the Pirates still lack a signature season defining win as they came up a point short against Villanova in Newark earlier this season and lost a pair of hard fought road games to Villanova and Xavier, making them 0-3 against the top two teams in the Big East.  That brings us to today where Seton Hall finds themselves in a big revenge spot against Xavier on their home floor and we see it being a perfect spot for the Pirates to score a mild upset as the Musketeers just pulled off the biggest win of their season over #1 Villanova and are almost guaranteed to come out a bit flat on the road today.  Xavier made their season on Wednesday when they knocked off #1 Villanova so the incentive just isn’t there like it is for Seton Hall who can score a win over a top five team if they can beat #5 Xavier.  It’s certainly a tall task with the Musketeers sitting at 25-3 on the season but this is an ideal spot to fade Xavier and this is a Seton Hall team we have followed closely this season and one we see as more than capable of winning this game.  Xavier has one of the best offenses in the country this season but Seton Hall will be one of the better defenses they face all season as the Pirates are holding opponents to a paltry 66 points per game.  Seton Hall has come a long way since the first time these two teams met in mid-January, and the combination of a letdown spot for Xavier, a signature win on the line for Seton Hall, in season revenge backing the Pirates and the fact this one is being played in Newark is enough to make the Pirates a worthy investment.  Let’s buy the hook and make sure we get bucket cushion here and back Seton Hall to score a season defining win in Newark this afternoon.  

$$$$ Seton Hall +2

Liking this game more and more as the morning wears on and I have one more $$$$ post left for the week so lets use it here.  Also this one should be +2 at most books now...I got +2 on Betus.  I've got the rest of my card available at topflightsportsinfo dot com....lets close out the week strong today with a big effort from everyone on the thread!
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by gatorbear:

@Poops,

I see this as the Sun Devils are due for a cover at the very least. Throw the stats out the window as they mean nothing. I've said this many times,

This is YOUR reasoning why ASU covers??????   At least stats show a trend.  This does nothing.  They are due.  Wow, alot of thought put into that one.  Where is your record confirmed so I can take a look at it.  Also, everyone on this thread that is tracked gives a write up as to why they opt for one team over the other.  Not that they are due.   Do you homework and come back later with real info.

Have a great day.




You have your system I have mine. I bet numbers, value, and public perception, anyone can throw stats against the board and hope they stick. My system is clearly proven.
 
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Posted: #43
Good luck today guys.

Go City!!!


Like the under in the Barca match too, but not recommended for the faint of heart.  Torture really, betting an under in a Barca match, they always have so many chances. But, their games DO go under sometimes.  


 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by peekay89:

Hammered it before that line shifts a mile

i just got colorado at -8 
 
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Posted: #45
I think the sharps / big money just picked up on the mercer bears value as the line just dropped on my book from +4.5 to +3.5 just letting everybody know. My book almost never drops a full point in less than 10 minutes. Could be that my guy is moving the line as I put a fairly large play on this but I doubt it.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by billywaddy:

Pitt looks like the sharp side today. They play well against crappy defenses ... Especially at home. I think they will be all jacked up today and lay the hammer down on that Ted Cruz look-alike.


I'm on Pitt also.
I love that it's their final home game, I'm hoping they can muster up all the fight they have in them and crush Duke by double digits!
I know that's asking alot...so I'll just take the W.
I also like how the line switched for me (+1.5 now -1) not that it has any bearing on the outcome.

Good luck to you!
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by poopdollar:

Quote Originally Posted by gatorbear:

@Poops,I see this as the Sun Devils are due for a cover at the very least.
Throw the stats out the window as they mean nothing. I've said this many
times,This is YOUR reasoning why ASU covers??????   At least stats show a trend.  This does nothing.  They are due.  Wow, alot of thought put into that one.  Where is your record confirmed so I can take a look at it.  Also, everyone on this thread that is tracked gives a write up as to why they opt for one team over the other.  Not that they are due.   Do you homework and come back later with real info.Have a great day.
You have your system I have mine. I bet numbers, value, and public perception, anyone can throw stats against the board and hope they stick. My system is clearly proven.


I see your logic, there is a lot of money on Colo, I took them 1h -4, but I feel like late garbage could lead than ASU cover. IPFW is not a good comparison, though. They had nothing to play for, Coloado does.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by poopdollar:


You have your system I have mine. I bet numbers, value, and public perception, anyone can throw stats against the board and hope they stick. My system is clearly proven.

No disrespect but if you bet value and numbers could you share the EV and probabilities? I ask because it would help me with how I pick games as well. I also play heavily into line value and probability vs that value just make notes. I do agree that Arizona at +8 shows some real value I am glad I got colorado at -6.5 and bought the hook since the numbers go against Colorado above -7 quite significantly. We are talking about 23% of probability swing here.
 
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Posted: #49
@ Poops

Please show your posts for the record you claim. Thanks.

Blackhawks -125 over the Caps.  Why, because they are due.



 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:

michigan state -17.5

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