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Holmey's $$$$ Thread TUESDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.01.16

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Posted: #26
Here is the write-up for my post last night on Kentucky -3


1. Talent. Without a doubt, Kentucky is the far more talented team in this match-up. They get a small spread due to their struggles of late but as the year goes on and this Kentucky team gets more and more experience the talent of the young players is really becoming evident in comparison to their opponents. I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up as a Kentucky 15 pt win.

2. Tyler Ulis. Anyone that watched the Vandy loss knows that Kentucky was the better team by far - They missed a ridiculous amount of open shots and they were on the wrong side of some bad calls. Ulis had his worst game in a while - Look for him to have a player of the year type game tonight.

3. Calipari makes a "tweak". Overall, Calipari's gamesmanship and coaching ability sets him apart at this time of year. He knows when to let the kids struggle and learn from mistakes (early in the year) and he knows when to turn it on and get ready for the deep tournament run. If you look at his interviews the last couple days I think he will have the guys focused and make some changes in the front court to better balance the scoring and allow Kentucky to control this game. Again, I don't see this game as being close for 40 minutes and I feel Kentucky pulls away to win by double digits.

Good luck!
 
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Posted: #27
Today I fell sleeping to see Kansas@Texas (the match for me was at 3am) and when I got up I see Kansas winning by 30, I thought OMG thats not possible!! But it was :D

Btw no $$$$ play today, I think I will follow ball state.

And thanks to all cappers here, I started the bnkroll last week with 50€ and now I am at 600€
So you guys are awesome, I owe all you a beer!!
 
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Posted: #28
Akron -5 against Ohio is my $$$$ play today.

A win at home (where they just completely dominate) seals 1st place in the MAC for the Zips today. They're playing Ohio, the team right behind them in the standings and I expect them to fully hold them off. Akron has had Ohio's number recently and that'll continue today. 

Let's get this money!
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by ncaabb:

Play of the Day $$$$    

Central Michigan vs Ball State -2.5

Last week: 3-0 total: 8-5

Only had 3 money plays last week but that's because im not trying force any games. I did that for a little and went on a bad losing streak. As for tomorrows slate, I was looking over games and came across this one and right off the bat I liked Ball State. I went and checked out the line to see it only at -2.5. Fishy line at first glance. But the reason it is so low is because  Central Michigan just came off an upset win over Toledo. Toledo did not show up to that game and just took them too lightly. They were out-rebounded and the game slipped. But im not worried about it. Ball State is on a roll winning 4 out of their last 5 with one of those wins coming against ....Central Michigan @ centrals place. and Ball states one loss came against Toledo. To me, this says Ball State wants to whip up on Central to show them they are still the better team. Central is 3-9 on the road while Ball st is 13-4 at home. Ball st is better in the rebounding and defensive department. I'm taking Ball st to cover this small spread. 

@ncaa - I'm not making this a $$$$ play because when I play this game later I'm going to be laying the -140 and playing the ML but I totally agree with your rationale and will be on this play with you.

Ball State can clinch the MAC West with a win tonight and Central Mich just isn't the same team on the road.

I don't love laying the -3 here because I think it's a cheap enough ML where the better value is actually in the ML and just needing Ball State to win but MAC teams have absolutely dominated at home, Central Mich sucks on the road, and this is a big spot with a ton on the line for Ball State.

Good pick and GL tonight!
 
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Posted: #30
Im .500 on couple days now after my impressive n lucky day won. I've been losing taking away fav lol

Today i take home fav for the win

Not going to tout their usual trend or how they played at home. This is a revenge game for marquette as georgetown beat them earlier this year however that was an earlier Georgetown team. They now have lost 4 in a row. marquette is still strong with winning 3 straight but lost to top ranked villanova.

Both teams are tied in conference but home field advantage is the difference here. Plus marquette is out for blood after their lost to then #1 villanova. Marquette has a winning season record n george is looking for a win here just to be at .500

Me n Georgetown have something in common. We are both fighting to go over that .500 mark lol

Give me marquette -3.5 for $$$$

Although i played it earlier at a better line but for this thread, im using current line to be fair.

Was eyeballing toledo n ball st. Wlill tail those too. Lets get that money guys. Good skills for is today.
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Posted: #31
$$$$ Purdue -3.5 $$$$ Iowa -4

I'm 0-1 on this thread after taking Iowa at OSU -4.  I have faith in them to correct their current losing streak.  They will be VERY motivated for their final home game.  Its a revenge spot for the Hawks.  I think they'll respond with a solid win. Should be high scoring as well.  Into the 150's I would suspect.  Close down the stretch with Iowa covering on FT's.  Senior night with 4 seniors starting and looking to correct recent struggles.  Iowa Covers here.

Purdue on the road -3.5.  I love the bigs for Purdue to control the glass and the paint.  Nebraska has no real answer for them there.  I believe that if Purdue's perimeter can continue to contribute that it shouldn't be close.  Yes Purdue struggles on the road and Nebraska is reasonably strong at home, but I feel this comes down to personel.  Purdue's bigs will continue to play strong!!  I like them to cover here and likely win by 8 or more.

$$$$ Purdue -3.5 & Iowa -4

Taking Kentucky -3 as well.  Thanks everyone!!  GL!!
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by BillyBets21:

$$$$ Purdue -3.5 $$$$ Iowa -4

I'm 0-1 on this thread after taking Iowa at OSU -4.  I have faith in them to correct their current losing streak.  They will be VERY motivated for their final home game.  Its a revenge spot for the Hawks.  I think they'll respond with a solid win. Should be high scoring as well.  Into the 150's I would suspect.  Close down the stretch with Iowa covering on FT's.  Senior night with 4 seniors starting and looking to correct recent struggles.  Iowa Covers here.

Purdue on the road -3.5.  I love the bigs for Purdue to control the glass and the paint.  Nebraska has no real answer for them there.  I believe that if Purdue's perimeter can continue to contribute that it shouldn't be close.  Yes Purdue struggles on the road and Nebraska is reasonably strong at home, but I feel this comes down to personel.  Purdue's bigs will continue to play strong!!  I like them to cover here and likely win by 8 or more.

$$$$ Purdue -3.5 & Iowa -4

Taking Kentucky -3 as well.  Thanks everyone!!  GL!!

Just one $$$ per day. So whatever one you feel better about.
 
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Posted: #33
Going to the NBA tonight for my money play and taking the Nets 1h +0.5 $$$$. Can probably take them in the full game here but they are on a back to back so I like the 1st half route a little more. Of course they are playing the b2b in LA in the same arena so it is not that big of a deal. That gives this line a lot of extra value.

Lot of value on this line. I am riding the Nets out right now and love this spot more so than any other since getting rid of Joe Johnson. Getting points against the Lakers? Sign me up.

They are now 3-0 ats since getting rid of Joe Johnson by a total of 26 points. Joe Johnson +/- was absolutely awful and he was getting some of the most minutes on the team. Without him Thadeous Young has gotten a chance to shine as well and has been a bright spot. Yesterday the Nets starters outscored the Clippers starters which is a very positive sign that this is no fluke. This team is meshing without Joe Johnson and I will be riding this hot streak out for awhile. When betting NBA games I love road teams as that is where you see the most value. 

Bet the Nets tonight. My $$$ play is in the 1h. But I will be taking them in both the 1h and game. LOTS of value in this line playing against the Lakers as an underdog. Best of luck guys. 
 
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Posted: #34

In the game between Perdue @ Nebraska, we have a big showdown on senior night at Nebraska. Lincoln is certainly a tough place to play, particularly for Perdue who have a long losing streak at Nebraska. Let’s take a look at that vaunted home court advantage for Nebraska, however. Nebraska is 10-7 at home, but the average ranking of the opponents they have defeated is 263. Their only win against against an opponent with a higher ranking than them at home is Rhode Island (#69). They have lost to every team ranked higher than them that they have faced at home. The atmosphere might be crazy in Lincoln, but this team does not have the talent to compete with the top teams.


In their last matchup with Perdue, Nebraska was torched for 32 points by Perdue 7 footer A.J. Hammons. Nebraska has no answer for Hammons. Their tallest starter is 6”8”. They were in foul trouble all game. They lost that game 89-74. This was Nebraska with a healthy Andrew White, who is currently banged up with an elbow and mired in a 6-27 shooting slump over the past two games. Nebraska also got 17 points from Tai Webster, who since that game has averaged 7.4 ppg. I think Perdue feeds Hammons all game long and wears down the Nebraska defense. A fast start by Perdue will quiet the crowd. Perdue is looking to make a statement that it is ready for a big NCAA run after dropping three straight on the road.


USC, give me Perdue -4 as the $$$$ play. 
 
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Posted: #35
$$$$$ Marquette -3.5

Basic write up today.  Georgetown is really trending down dropping 8 of their last 10.  Marquette has split their last 4 but has lost two straight at home.  Their last lost came at the hands of a tourney #1 seed in Nova.  It's their last home game of the year also senior night (but only one senior on team that doesn't get much time so not much of an angle there).  This team is young, big and I like that the conference is knotted up right now in the middle/bottom and Marquette can advance their conference tourney seeding to avoid playing in that first round and then having to either play Xavier or Nova in round 2.  Bradley Hayes should still be out for Georgetown and that gives Marquette a big rebounding advantage.


$$$$$ Marquette -3.5


  
(@USC, yes I bought the hook to make it an even 3.  I am still tracking buying the hook on non integer plays but have had zero applicable data)




 
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Posted: #36
@TiltingChaser,  I like the over 137 in the Purdue game as well
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by TheKrew:

Quote Originally Posted by BillyBets21:

$$$$ Purdue -3.5 $$$$ Iowa -4I'm 0-1 on this thread after taking Iowa at OSU -4.  I have faith in them to correct their current losing streak.  They will be VERY motivated for their final home game.  Its a revenge spot for the Hawks.  I think they'll respond with a solid win. Should be high scoring as well.  Into the 150's I would suspect.  Close down the stretch with Iowa covering on FT's.  Senior night with 4 seniors starting and looking to correct recent struggles.  Iowa Covers here.Purdue on the road -3.5.  I love the bigs for Purdue to control the glass and the paint.  Nebraska has no real answer for them there.  I believe that if Purdue's perimeter can continue to contribute that it shouldn't be close.  Yes Purdue struggles on the road and Nebraska is reasonably strong at home, but I feel this comes down to personel.  Purdue's bigs will continue to play strong!!  I like them to cover here and likely win by 8 or more.$$$$ Purdue -3.5 & Iowa -4Taking Kentucky -3 as well.  Thanks everyone!!  GL!!
Just one $$$ per day. So whatever one you feel better about.



My apologies. I'll be betting on both, but favor Iowa -4 as my $$$$ play. GL!!
 
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Posted: #38
[Quote: Originally Posted by Bubbaski27] @TiltingChaser,  I like the over 137 in the Purdue game as well [/Quote]
 
 
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Posted: #39
Hey guys, so my $$$$ yday didn't count bc Memphis ml was -140 when I posted. It ultimately dropped to -120, so I could have used it, but I'm not here in a competition, just here to help others hopefully make money, which is why this is a great thread. So my apologies for not seeing ml has to be -129 or lower. Memphis got the win so hope some of you tailed. Today lets head out to Kent state 

Bowling Green @ Kent state. 

kent state is coming off two losses in a row, yet still sit in third in the mid American east standings. A surprising loss to Miami of Ohio last game, preceded by a loss at buffalo(tough place to get a win), and this Kent state team is gonna be playing with some meaning tonight at home, where they are 12-2. Bowling green has lost their last 5 road games, and have been reeling of late, having gone 2-8 in their last 10. Add to the fact that tonight is senior night, and Kent state still has a shot at a bye in the conference tourney, and I think we have a perfect combination for a $$$$ play. 

USC please give me Kent State -6 for my first $$$$ play 
 
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Posted: #40
@Bubbaski - Agree on Marquette too.  They are a high energy team and I dont see Georgetown being able to match their intensity on the road tonight.  Plus Marquette has in season revenge and Georgetown may be looking ahead to showdown with Villanova this weekend.  

Anyone who has followed me knows I'm probably the most anti Kentucky guy in this thread right now (Went against them with big plays on Texas A&M and Vandy) and while there's no way ill put a dime on Kentucky tonight I think there's some validity to a comment made in an earlier post about them tweaking something after the Vandy loss.  If Calipari's said adjustments work they could demolish Florida here. 

Great stuff so far today everyone.  Not sure if I'll be posting a $$$$ play today as I know there are going to be some really good spots later this week but I will have my card available at topflightsportsinfo dot com.  Lets keep this rolling in the right direction.

Soccer comments - Everton and Leicester City look like winners to me today....both in the -150 to -160 range....maybe a small parlay if you need some "early degen action" lol
 
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Posted: #41

First $$$ play posted here.  What a great thread BTW.  Thanks for this.

 

Im going Louisville -12.5 over GTECH  

 

It's senior night and I believe they'll slap GT..  A 20 point win I feel like.  They'll rotate Lewis and Lee on Hunt.  He will get his, but it'll come through a tough shooting night.  GT has actually won 5 out of their last 6 so this looks like a play on GT.  Im not buying it.  Got a feeling Ville crushes GT tonight. 

 
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Posted: #42
CBS'ers.......that TRAIN69 guy is obviously JTG, right?
 
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Posted: #43

BTW, just got the Standings updated and we have a new "BIG DOG" for the first time in a long time.......

Posting the Standings in a few minutes.

 
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Posted: #44
$$$$ Kent state -6$$$$

kent State are average 74.6 points per game,.....defensively allowing 73.1 .... while bowling Green average 71.2 and defensively allowing 72.1. Doesn't look easy but its tough to beat kent state  (12-2) at home..They are also  fighting for conference  and had already beaten bowling  Green on away .So they should be able to win and cover the spread.


$$$$ kent state -6$$$$


side 
1h kent state -3
1h Arkansas state +8
GS warriors -9.5

 
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Posted: #45

$$$$ THREAD RESULTS/STANDINGS THRU FEB. 29

MONDAY $$$$ W/L: 8-4-1
TOTAL OVERALL W/L TO DATE: 186-143-7 (56.5%)
ELITE EIGHT RESULTS: 2-0 - Now on a 24-4 run for the last 8 days

$$$$ OF THE DAY:
Goes to rf_dawg for an EDW (Early Degen Winner) in soccer where the over covered in the first half

STANDINGS:
I can't type out everyone's name any more here, so from now on, the Standings will show people who have made a minimum number of $$$$'s.

MINIMUM OF 4 $$$$'s MADE

THE ELITE EIGHT

THE BIG DOG
1. rf_dawg (8-1)

2. bubbaski27 (11-4-1)
3. gatorbear (8-2)
4. wmi799 (9-3)
5. TopFlightSports (6-1)
6. USC_Holmey (9-4-1)
7. jroc1247 (5-2)
T8. jimc0911 (6-3)
T8. Gtimebutler (6-3)

Profitable $$$$'ers
10. ncaabb (8-5)
T11. jimmybigmits (3-2-1)
T11. Redbandit (3-2)
T11. Stu23 (3-2)
T11. SUPEREAGLE43 (3-2)
15. magiccarpetride (4-3)
16. FenwayFrank (5-4)
17. nfl_brosuf (8-7)

And the rest......
T18. TheKrew (4-4-2)
T18. Desertcapper (4-4)
20. BadTimes (5-5)
T21. bk1374 (2-3)
T21. wgomel21 (2-3)
T23. truthcapper (1-3-1)
T23. MercyRules (1-3)
T23. silversilver (1-3)
T23. Da_Oracle (1-3)
27. Appleton40 (2-4)
28. BarneysDad (1-4)
29. forty9ersfan80 (2-7)

Others  --- 3-0 - NicMittens, Xdresser
                  2-0 - Madden21, rebel1927

Thanks guys and good luck today!

 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Thebigcat13:

Hey guys, so my $$$$ yday didn't count bc Memphis ml was -140 when I posted. It ultimately dropped to -120, so I could have used it, but I'm not here in a competition, just here to help others hopefully make money, which is why this is a great thread. So my apologies for not seeing ml has to be -129 or lower. Memphis got the win so hope some of you tailed. Today lets head out to Kent state 

Bowling Green @ Kent state. 

kent state is coming off two losses in a row, yet still sit in third in the mid American east standings. A surprising loss to Miami of Ohio last game, preceded by a loss at buffalo(tough place to get a win), and this Kent state team is gonna be playing with some meaning tonight at home, where they are 12-2. Bowling green has lost their last 5 road games, and have been reeling of late, having gone 2-8 in their last 10. Add to the fact that tonight is senior night, and Kent state still has a shot at a bye in the conference tourney, and I think we have a perfect combination for a $$$$ play. 

USC please give me Kent State -6 for my first $$$$ play 

Just an FYI, no ML's or buying points on hoops.  Have to play the spread.  (in reference to your Memphis play, not today's pick.)

 
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Posted: #47
Hey bk.  West Brom scored.
 
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Posted: #48
Holmey you are killing me with the $$$$ of the day..  I have had at least 3 that should have been mentioned and yesterday,  Perry Ellis coming back to have a monster game, Kansas to blow out Texas and the team total over Kansas 72.  Wow, not a mention.  May have to leave this thread and start my own.
 
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Posted: #49
USC will you keep me on your radar? I'm 1-0-1 since I started Saturday. (GS Saturday and OKC -5.5 1st half last night) I don't need to be on the standings just letting you know so if I get on a run 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

Hey bk.  West Brom scored.

Saw that!!  I honestly HATE rooting against Leicester, because it's a great story, but since Spurs are in the thick, I have to.  

Going to be a great race to the finish! 
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