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    All Forums | College Basketball

    Home Court in CB isn't worth 4 to 5 points - it's worth 10-15

    fluffybucker69
    smacksmiter
    TheSquare
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    fluffybucker69
    fluffybucker69
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2020 - 3:24 PM ET #1

    And the sooner everyone realizes this, the sooner you'll all make a lot of money.  Right now, these point spreads are underestimating the home court advantage.  I mean I'll be honest I am amazed at how atrocious teams are on the road right now.  It's embarrassing for the sport in my opinion and shows how immature these kids are.  Just because you go into another arena and people are cheering for the other team doesn't mean you should forget how to play the game of basketball.  But the fact of the matter is right now you can make a lot of money just pounding the home teams.  We'll see when Vegas makes line adjustments. 

    Few games that stand out -

    Clemson beating Duke at home.  They would lose 100 out of 100 times at Duke.  But at home?  They win outright.

    Oklahoma State would lose 100 times out of 100 at Baylor.  But at home?  They're up 9 at half and Baylor has to hold on for dear life for the outright win.

    Depaul would lose 90% of the time at Butler.  But at home?  They win by 15-20.

    Kansas State would lose 98 out of 100 times at West Virginia.  But at home?  They're up 17 at half ROFL.  They're 7-9 guys! 

    Miami would probably lose 98-99 times out of 100 at FSU.  But at home?  Well they're in OT currently. 

    Texas hasn't won at Kansas since the ice age.  But at home?  Up 5 at half.  It'll probably be a one possession game at the end we'll see.

    How about good ol Purdue?  Wins at home by Msu by 30.  Go on the road and get fapped by Maryland.  16 point deficit at halftime.

    Auburn?  Off to a perfect undefeated start!  Then they go to Alabama and get bent over.  Then bent over again at Florida.

    I also don't think Saint Louis would win more than one out of 50 games at Dayton and last night at home they choke up a massive lead late and get beat by a buzzer beating 3 in OT.

     

    Clemson, Oklahoma State, Depaul, Purdue, and K State aren't even gonna come close to making the tournament. Texas may sneak in?  Yet these teams are all beating "top 10" teams in the country at home and not just winning, but jumping off to big leads in the first half in almost every game.  

    Start taking advantage of this.  First off, there should be almost no road favs in college.  This -6 and -7 crap with top 15 teams on the road has to stop.  It doesn't matter who they play.  They're inept on the road.  Those lines should be like -2.5 at most.  And when you have a better team at home, the line should be closer to -9.5 and not -6 like you got in the Maryland game today.  It's just the reality.  In the Big Ten road teams have are like a combined 10 -110 or something crazy like that. 

     

     

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    And the sooner everyone realizes this, the sooner you'll all make a lot of money.  Right now, these point spreads are underestimating the home court advantage.  I mean I'll be honest I am amazed at how atrocious teams are on the road right now.  It's embarrassing for the sport in my opinion and shows how immature these kids are.  Just because you go into another arena and people are cheering for the other team doesn't mean you should forget how to play the game of basketball.  But the fact of the matter is right now you can make a lot of money just pounding the home teams.  We'll see when Vegas makes line adjustments. 

    Few games that stand out -

    Clemson beating Duke at home.  They would lose 100 out of 100 times at Duke.  But at home?  They win outright.

    Oklahoma State would lose 100 times out of 100 at Baylor.  But at home?  They're up 9 at half and Baylor has to hold on for dear life for the outright win.

    Depaul would lose 90% of the time at Butler.  But at home?  They win by 15-20.

    Kansas State would lose 98 out of 100 times at West Virginia.  But at home?  They're up 17 at half ROFL.  They're 7-9 guys! 

    Miami would probably lose 98-99 times out of 100 at FSU.  But at home?  Well they're in OT currently. 

    Texas hasn't won at Kansas since the ice age.  But at home?  Up 5 at half.  It'll probably be a one possession game at the end we'll see.

    How about good ol Purdue?  Wins at home by Msu by 30.  Go on the road and get fapped by Maryland.  16 point deficit at halftime.

    Auburn?  Off to a perfect undefeated start!  Then they go to Alabama and get bent over.  Then bent over again at Florida.

    I also don't think Saint Louis would win more than one out of 50 games at Dayton and last night at home they choke up a massive lead late and get beat by a buzzer beating 3 in OT.

     

    Clemson, Oklahoma State, Depaul, Purdue, and K State aren't even gonna come close to making the tournament. Texas may sneak in?  Yet these teams are all beating "top 10" teams in the country at home and not just winning, but jumping off to big leads in the first half in almost every game.  

    Start taking advantage of this.  First off, there should be almost no road favs in college.  This -6 and -7 crap with top 15 teams on the road has to stop.  It doesn't matter who they play.  They're inept on the road.  Those lines should be like -2.5 at most.  And when you have a better team at home, the line should be closer to -9.5 and not -6 like you got in the Maryland game today.  It's just the reality.  In the Big Ten road teams have are like a combined 10 -110 or something crazy like that. 

     

     

     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jan. 18, 2020 - 3:28 PM ET #2

    Love your passionate anecdotal thoughts ...

    But that's all it is...anecdotal...limited sample size...not documented with actual numbers...

    Worthless observations for the long term...and a terrible idea to start slamming money down on them based on your observations for ONE day of college basketball...

    Do it right...go back and collect data on the last 100 times a home team was an underdog of 6 to 10 points and actually record the outcomes and get a % win number...

    THEN come back to the forum with some hard evidence that matches your ANECDOTAL observations...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Love your passionate anecdotal thoughts ...

    But that's all it is...anecdotal...limited sample size...not documented with actual numbers...

    Worthless observations for the long term...and a terrible idea to start slamming money down on them based on your observations for ONE day of college basketball...

    Do it right...go back and collect data on the last 100 times a home team was an underdog of 6 to 10 points and actually record the outcomes and get a % win number...

    THEN come back to the forum with some hard evidence that matches your ANECDOTAL observations...

     
     
    TheSquare
    TheSquare
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    Joined: Mar, 2009
    Posts: 16397
    Posted: Jan. 18, 2020 - 3:29 PM ET #3

    IF you believe this to be true then you can ALWAYS lay odds with your local, internet book or the casino book. an_light They'll gladly give you the appropriate odds..

    "Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
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    IF you believe this to be true then you can ALWAYS lay odds with your local, internet book or the casino book. an_light They'll gladly give you the appropriate odds..

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