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HOME TEAMS FAVORED BY 15+ (1ST HALF PLAYS)

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Posted: #76
This system blows.
 
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Posted: #77
I was pretty skeptical of this system when I first read this thread (because how would books not see this trend and adjust their lines/juice accordingly?), but I did some quick back testing for this month... I didn't focus on only home teams, although the vast majority of 15+ favs turn out to be home teams by nature -- very few potentially dominant teams travel to significantly lesser opponent's homes. I didn't have specific 1st half lines available to compare, so my testing is only estimated, but I came out with a 46-16 record before tonight, with the 3 previous December Saturdays accounting for 27-7 of that. Again, these are only my rough estimations and some variation would surely occur based on your book and the lines offered. Nevertheless, that is a ridiculous trend. Thanks to Stockton for bringing this to the forum!! 


Stockton -- any input on how this trend generally plays out for the back half of the month and throughout conference season?
 
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Posted: #78
Seems like a great system, but the day I follow it, it goes 1-3. I feel like the cooler
 
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Posted: #79
Was out coaching myself and saw the final Cuse score and thought I stole one..lmao until I saw the half score..Oh well lost ND too but on to tomorrow...Kansas looks stout at home..will take them for the half and game!!! Later ya'll!!
 
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Posted: #80
  gl
 
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Posted: #81
So today would be Purdue, Kansas, VA Commonewealth, and Ohio State? 
 
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Posted: #82

12Stockton12,
How long have you been doing this system?

 
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Posted: #83
Plays

Kansas -8.5 
Ohio St. -15.5
VCU - 9.5
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by TCO_03:

Plays

Kansas -8.5 
Ohio St. -15.5
VCU - 9.5
Purdue -9
 
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Posted: #85
I warned you all to be careful on this system. It was very successful at the begining of the season. I found out about this and made hood amount on this before he even started this thread. But i feel it starts changing since the odds is adjusted as the season goes on. The point is heavily favored team come out of the gate strong, thats why they keep covering. But books now adjust the lines for those lopeside game even more on the first half spread. 30 points spread game and 16.5 1H. I tracked this and i know its starts changing. Be careful apple this system. 
 
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Posted: #86
Apple? Wtf its ABOUT. Lol.
 
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Posted: #87
Best thing to do is to use this system but confirm plays with previous games and 1st halves. Download Sportacular and check out teams schedules from the last couple of games. Some tend to keep it close in the 1st half and then blow the difference. Vice versa as well. Syracuse was a tricky one last night but hit. As for Notre Dame, that missed by a point and FL State just sucked d*ck. This doesn't always hit but definitely hits more than loses.

Also, watching the game is VERY important. People tail blindly most of the time. If you have the opportunity to watch a game. Do it. Detroit made a lot of turnovers they shouldn't have in the 1st half but still looked solid in other areas. They ended up coming back to almost win and to cover FG spread and 2H. Look at the FG spread after the 1st half. If the first half is far off the margin, look for it to get closer to a the FG spread by the end of the game. Good opportunities in second halves like Orlando last night in the NBA and a few others. Theres a lot of patterns and factors to keep track of.
 
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Posted: #88

Quote Originally Posted by TCO_03:

That's what I got.  Would love if we went 3-1 so I can finally have a winning day off this.

 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by plchris:

Best thing to do is to use this system but confirm plays with previous games and 1st halves. Download Sportacular and check out teams schedules from the last couple of games. Some tend to keep it close in the 1st half and then blow the difference. Vice versa as well. Syracuse was a tricky one last night but hit. As for Notre Dame, that missed by a point and FL State just sucked d*ck. This doesn't always hit but definitely hits more than loses.

Also, watching the game is VERY important. People tail blindly most of the time. If you have the opportunity to watch a game. Do it. Detroit made a lot of turnovers they shouldn't have in the 1st half but still looked solid in other areas. They ended up coming back to almost win and to cover FG spread and 2H. Look at the FG spread after the 1st half. If the first half is far off the margin, look for it to get closer to a the FG spread by the end of the game. Good opportunities in second halves like Orlando last night in the NBA and a few others. Theres a lot of patterns and factors to keep track of.

Do u make plays in this system?

 
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Posted: #90
I like this.  Thank you for sharing.  Decent payout.  About 138 to win 100 odds.


Quote Originally Posted by 12STOCKTON12:

also personally playing a nice moneyline parlay of (ncsu, wyoming, mich. state)
 
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Posted: #91
Quite a few plays for Wednesday.
 
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Posted: #92
Stockton, do you start this system in Dec or the start of the season? The reason I ask is because I backtracked for November. Granted I used the closing lines, probably not what you played, but the result should be fairly close. November was 58 wins and 52 losses, or break even. But December is doing very well (except the last few days)
Thanks
 
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Posted: #93
I have been playing a similar system (not just home teams, but ranked teams) for the last few weeks... Good luck Stockton
 
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Posted: #94

I to have caught this thread on the last two dayts going I belive 2-5, or 2-4 not sure to be exact, I like the idea of the system, home team favored by more than 15 usually start off hot, win the game, but cool off and let some useless points get scored at the end of the 2nd. With that being said, I'm going small on tonights 1st half lines half a unit for each of the following

Iowa -15

Duke -16.5

Indiana -18

Lous -14

OK State -8.5

saint Louis -12

 

 
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Posted: #95
St Bonnie would be a bet also 
 
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Posted: #96
And Iowa st
 
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Posted: #97
This trend doesn't work anymore especially on ranked teams
 
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Posted: #98
I went 6-2 tonight using this :)

Indiania missed it by .5 point 
 
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Posted: #99
I think Stockton quit
 
 
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Posted: #100
interesting thread bol
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