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ive been using the kenprom fan match unbelievable the accuracy

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Posted: #51

Quote Originally Posted by poolman11:

maybe we can all try and assist each other im seeing trends of home teams lines of =3 or better  vegas moving em to the dog or fav  been workin at 85%   more minds better results but i think im on to something lets put our heads together and break the bank 
                       

on fan match the last column says thrill score  could you explain  thanks

 
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Posted: #52
CAL +1 
 
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Posted: #53

After reading thru this thread there seems to be confusion. All that is being said here is.....

If Kenpom computers have Team A winning by 3 (-3) and the Vegas line comes out at Team B -2, over the long run, it is better to take Team B at -2 since there is probably a reason that we are unaware of that favors Team B. It is merely a way to keep you from being a square bettor. However, keep in mind that squares win sometimes too.

 
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Posted: #54
here when the OPENING LINE POST ONLY  not late when vegas adjust it by volume etc ......  compare a home team fav close to pk to max 3 compare kenpom line evaluate if vegas moves line you bet that the experts are correct simply close your mind let go of the wheel for once and let the best in the biz work for you !!!!!!!! 
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by poolman11:

here when the OPENING LINE POST ONLY  not late when vegas adjust it by volume etc ......  compare a home team fav close to pk to max 3 compare kenpom line evaluate if vegas moves line you bet that the experts are correct simply close your mind let go of the wheel for once and let the best in the biz work for you !!!!!!!! 


u bet that the experts are correct, yet you are betting on UCLA?  To me, your betting trends have nothing to do with Kenpom.  You're just betting on them cause all the line movement is hinting that they they will win.
 
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Posted: #56
correct brother im only opening a thread hoping that we can dial this in and we all figure a better way to win it 90% accurate so far lets hope its for real 
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

After reading thru this thread there seems to be confusion. All that is being said here is.....

If Kenpom computers have Team A winning by 3 (-3) and the Vegas line comes out at Team B -2, over the long run, it is better to take Team B at -2 since there is probably a reason that we are unaware of that favors Team B. It is merely a way to keep you from being a square bettor. However, keep in mind that squares win sometimes too.




Maybe a dumb question, what exactly is a 'square' bettor?? 
 
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Posted: #58

Quote Originally Posted by kp9484:




Maybe a dumb question, what exactly is a 'square' bettor?? 

 

you!

 
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Posted: #59

try the simple smell test

Oh st a pickem at purde? take purdue

Uconn off a big win at Louisville -3.5? take cards

ND -4 at WVU? really,takeWVU

This happens all the time, fade the dumb public, take the home team, and be on the side vegas needs...the xamples are endless, and for this reason Cal will win tonight and public will lose...LOL

you want to look at the line, see why it smells, then take usually the home team giving or getting 3 points... i see it in the Big Ten alot

Lines tell a story, the public is baited....go opposite, it take large stones to do this, but you can win with sharp bettors this way

 
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Posted: #60
where can i find kenpoms predictions at?
 
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Posted: #61
Appreciate it...and yes, i fall into the category of a square bettor from time to time....i got the balls to admit it.
 
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Posted: #62
kenpom.com its there on internet 
 
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Posted: #63
i hope forums helps this is not a system or trend it still needs tweeked  lets narrow it down and win thx ive used it at 90% accuracy
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by SharpBettor1:

I think this "system" is useless, honestly.  Now u say the edge goes to the home team (which is obvious), so why would u take UCLA???
You keep asking him questions and he says lets use the forum for advice yet he still tends to avoid any question you ask him. You have tried and tried to ask why he is taking UCLA after his 'SYSTEM' called for Cal. I jjust do not get it as I'm sure you don't either.

On a side note, does it not seem EVERYONE is coming up with a system? Kines system has been quite accurate and since then it seems a lot of folks want to come out with their own system that is very, very close to the way Kine uses his system. Some of it is laughable. Sorry, carry on fellas.
 
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Posted: #65

You would take UCLA tonight because Kenpom's got Cal -2 while the line opened at PK. Forget about the line movements. Why did the Vegas line open at PK when the computers said -2?  Take Ucla PK or -1 which I did.

 
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Posted: #66
I'm a UCLA fan and wouldn't touch them tonight with your dick.
 
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Posted: #67
Classy
 
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Posted: #68
shhhhhhh dont let vegas no thx
 
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Posted: #69
Stupid coaching on UCLA's part. FOUL THEM EARLY!!!!
 
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Posted: #70
Don't foul with :43 left. Wait until there's :06 left to start fouling. You're fucking behind less than a minute, FOUL THEM
 
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Posted: #71
wow that 2 loss in over time first was providence now this i think were on to something all wins two overtime thrillers 
 
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Posted: #72

calwins

its not opposite kenpom blindly

its opposite consensus/public...line set begging people to take ucla

 

Look for smelly lines, go with house and home teams often GL

 
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Posted: #73
whatever system you've uncovered on accident is a mirage. 

I track games that deviate from pomeroy's projections as one of many inputs and for the year, those games are 155-149. 

Games that deviate from Sagarin are 88-84. 

Virtually no edge.... 
 
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Posted: #74
try this criteria a 3 point home favorite at home openong line only not after it moves by etc........ like most will . fanmatch kenpom see what it predicts score evalute to opening vegas line plus or minus  ive been using this criteria only now the only losses was ucla overtime providence overtime both losses all others were winners aka mich st -3 kenpom had illinios -1 i went with vegas   missippi st pk kenpom miss-3 st won   its by far no system im just asking for help to develop an edge thx
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by Wizard41:

calwins

its not opposite kenpom blindly

its opposite consensus/public...line set begging people to take ucla

 

Look for smelly lines, go with house and home teams often GL



I agree that this Kenpom thing has no advantage whatsoever.  Gambling would be too easy if all u had to do was click on 2 buttons and u have your winner. 

As for the smelly lines, it didn't work when I bet on Stanford this past Thursday when they played UCLA.  It had the exact same lines and line movement as the CAL-Ucla gm.  I guess if u look at all the smelly lines, I'm sure 50% hit and 50% don't
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