1/5 Results: Pretty good day with some luck thrown in.
Sides: 39-23, +23.30
Totals: 29-12, +17.50
DNP: 47-40
1/6 Notes: All conference games aside from the Xavier/Cincy rivalry game, which I am not interested in. I’m not really sure what to think of Villanova. Their defense has been a lot better, and while the offense seems it has dropped off, it really hasn’t. They haven’t looked as fluid as past teams, but they’re getting the job done. South Florida’s offense has been awful. I think Nova has hit the 70 mark all but three times this year, while USF has only hit 70 three times, and they haven’t done so since November. I value Arkansas State quite a bit more than FIU, but FIU has some talent and it’s just a matter of time before they put it all together. Both teams playing their first conference roady/home game. Not really sure how the South Alabama and Florida Atlantic game is going to play out. They played three times last year and all three games were different styles of play. Denver’s surprised me as they’ve won four straight and they did beat Western Kentucky in both meetings last year. They’re on the road here, however, and on the road they’ve put up 47, 48, and 52 this year. I really like the makeup of the Fresno State team with the return of Shepp as I’ve mentioned numerous times before. They’ve been pretty bad on the road, but they’ve taken care of business in the games they needed to. The home team has won the last six games in the series as well. There are a few dynamics at play here. First, both teams have important guards that are missing. Guard play should be the determining factor in who wins this ballgame. This is actually one of the few games of the year that Fresno has a decent advantage at the guard slot despite poor play, but it looks like Steed is going to be out. Second, Fresno goes on the road for the first time in a while, while Louisiana Tech returns home for the first time in a while. La Tech has also had a few more days to prepare here too after they mailed it in with a 30 point loss at Idaho to end their recent three game roady. I like Fresno’s makeup, but the situational spot appears to be Louisiana Tech here. Wright State’s defense should be able to control UIC. UIC has consistently scored in the 50’s this year and last against tough defensive squads and this should be no different here. Wright State has much better guards, and their guards can not only score, but they defend extremely well too. They should be able to slow Kreps down quite a bit here as they did last year. Kreps was 5-23 from the floor if you combine both meetings last year and the team scored 47 and 43 in those meetings. If you limit Kreps from scoring, you limit the team. Add in the fact that Wright State’s offense has been awful on the road, and this might be a good spot for an under. I value Detroit a bit better than Loyola CHI and I still think Loyola CHI could be a bit over-valued at this point in the season, but I need a bit more time to evaluate. This Detroit team is pretty much about to hit the same spot as Loyola did last year. They’re young, they play a ton of minutes, and it’s going to catch up with them at some point (Loyola same style last year, started 11-2, finished 3-14). It’s probably a good idea to take a look at any team that Lafayette is laying points to in the Sun Belt, but having Troy on the opposite sideline doesn’t really make things easier. However, in this spot, it does a little bit. Both teams own one win over a Division One opponent and Troy’s played a much rougher schedule. Troy’s coming off a 41 point loss at the hands of Utah State which is not all that bad, but they have to be itching to play after having a total of 13 days off since that game. Their lone conference loss this year came at the hands of Florida Atlantic and their last four games have been played without the most important part of their roster and leading scorer in Vernon Taylor. The team is essentially brand new from the team that finished second in the conference last year, except for Taylor, who was a key part of that squad. Having the necessary time off to heal an ankle injury, and get everyone a breather and on the same page should benefit them here coming off a beating. Furthermore, this is a kid who has quoted the revenge angle from last year’s game where he scored a whopping two points. As for the style of play and matchups, it could not work into Troy’s favor more than this game. ULL doesn’t feature a standout scorer, and they play a similar style to Troy. ULL is awful at distributing the basketball, same can be said for Troy. Both teams shoot free throws horribly and both teams like to get out and go. The difference here is that Troy has been playing this way for years, and they’re used to this style of play. I think that fact, combined with the fact that ULL is not accustomed to or has yet to show success with this style, sets up for a nice play here even with an awful defense. Last year they had a nice presence and a few go-to guys in a half-court setting. They’ve resulted in the quantity over quality tidbit this year b/c they don’t have a roster that can play in the half court due to so many newcomers. This game should be dominated by the guards, and I’ll take my chances. I think Troy wants it more in this spot with the revenge and time off. I hesitated going to the over here in this game with the amount of shots that could potentially be taken and two awful defenses, but a lot of these shots should be taken from long range, and unless something happens out of the norm to where these teams shoot free throws and actually make them, then the value in the over is not present. Some of these shot totals in Troy games this year have been UNBELIEVABLY high, and one teams attempted 60+ in every game. It’s only happened three times on the ULL side of things, and they lost all three of them obviously. Games like this are hit or miss, but I see value in the over if the free throws go in...