Posted:
#1
Kentucky won the first match-up vs UNC 103-100. So does Kentucky deserve to be underdogs? The assumption seems to be that UNC has more talent. However, according to NBAdraft.net, for instance, but also other expert-run mock draft websites, three Kentucky players are ranked higher than the first UNC player (thanks to Goat for the info)--Fox, Monk, Adebayo--all freshman, then the junior Jackson. I think Kentucky has the talent to beat UNC. While they are less experienced in number of years, they have been more battle-tested i this tournament so far, having encountered and defeated tougher competition. They grinded out a 65-62 win against Wichita State and beat UCLA 86-75, while UNC lost focus for much of the second round game and then scraped by Arkansas and then blew out Butler before letting them "close" the lead to 12. Kentucky's defense has vastly improved. They are ranked now 7th in defensive efficiency to UNC's 20th. The first time they played UCLA they gave up 97 in a loss. That's a 22 point improvement and a lopsided win the second time around. I think we see a similar kind of improvement in defense the second time around. I think the key in this matchup regarding defense is the perimeter. Kentucky is 12th in opposing 3 point %, while UNC is 108th. UNC has repeatedly been shredded on the perimeter. Even Butler was able to put up 28 threes, even though they had an off night from behind the arc. Their first two tournament opponents are not dangerous from behind the arc but then Duke in the conference tournament likewise had their way against UNC from behind the arc. The first time these two teams played, Monk went 8/12 from three and scored nearly 50 points. He likely won't put up as many points but he is just one player on his team who has the confidence and talent and will have the opportunity to light it up offensively. UNC does have the best rebounder on the floor in Meeks and UNC's dominance in the interior is a concern. But Kentucky is no slouch in the category either. They actually out-rebounded UNC the first time they played, outr-ebounded another very physical team in South Carolina when they played, forced Thomas Welsh to foul out in the match-up vs UCLA. In short, Kentucky can boast to a considerable degree of its accomplishments in the interior. I think the wrong team is favored here but we take the points. This game could be very well be a close one, but we side with the time that has more talent on offense, has the superior defense, while being able to sufficiently hold its own in the interior and has had the tougher road to get this deep in the tournament. UNC is just 2-6 ats in its last 8 games away from home against teams who rank in the top 50 in defensive efficiency. Take Kentucky +2.5
0
that's regular season talk,
Hot Forum Topics
