Quote Originally Posted by special__k:
Here's what I learned from the WVU/Kentucky game: WVU is scrappy... they play tough defense and exposed Kentucky for their short comings. I was on WVU that game for my biggest wager this post season and having seen them play in BE action this year, I'm a believer in this team. That being said......
POSSESSIONS
I believe that when you have to great teams facing off against one another, the game really comes down to a couple of things and one of them are possessions. You can't score if you don't have the ball. The one flaw I noticed from the VVU/Kentucky game was how the Mountaineers got smacked around on the offensive glass, something that they should've been better at. Size was definitely an issue and now they have to go against Zoubek and the Plumlee brothers (7' 1", 6' 10", and 6' 10" respectively). Kentucky had so many second chance opportunities but couldn't capitalize on them. Duke is too good offensively that they will make another team pay. They have three great ball handlers in Scheyer, Smith and Singler and will not turn the ball over much.
OFFENSE
Duke handeled the Baylor zone effectively in stretches and were able to get their shots against a very big front line. Zoubek did an admirable job handleling the ball in the high post as their guards ran cuts and back screens against Baylor. I think playing Baylor will give Duke a leg up in preparing for WVU's 2/3 or 1/3/1. WVU forced Kentucky to beat them either outside or at the free throw line and couldn't. Duke is a much better team in those areas and will surely make the open jumper if you give it to them... they've faced the second hardest defensive schedule in the country this year.
DEFENSE
Statistically, Duke is the best in the country at defending the moneyball and gives up less than 19 attempts a game at the free throw line... In the UK game consider that 53 of WVU's 73 points came from either a three pointer or free throw... for the year, almost 35% of WVU's shots from the field are three point attempts. Also, If Bryant returns, he actually has the third highest turnover rate for players who average 30% of the minutes or more and is just 31.5% from three.
INTANGIBLES
Will gladly take the coach who's going to the Final Four for the 11th time. If I'm not mistaken, Coach K is 7-3 SU in Final Four games and 4-1 SU in Final Four games as a #1 seed. Not a Duke fan, never will be, but it's hard deny the talent on this team.
BOL
I hope you aren't basing all this analysis off of one game, Kentucky?
First off, if you have watched West Va all year, you would know 2 things. 1) They are a fantastic rebounding team. The UK game where the opponent getting so many rebounds isn't the norm, and a main reason why is it's a lot easier for teams to offensive rebound against the 1-3-1, mainly because the point guard is at the bottom of the 1-3-1, which leads me to my next point....
West Va rarely uses the 1-3-1. These morons on TV like Digger Phelps and Vitale keep talking about how WVU plays zone but they are completely clueless. Against Kentucky, was the first time they have used it extensively for an entire game, and that was so UK would continue to launch shots from the outside which they can't make. Normally, WVU goes into the 1-3-1 at the end of the game because it runs clock, and it's something that a team hasn't seen all game, but they play man to man in every game for almost the entire game. The irony is you can get good looks from 3 out of it, which is exactly why WVU won't be running it against Duke, you don't run it against good shooters. They will get great mileage out of it this week however because Duke has no choice but to spend practice time on it this week, but they won't be seeing it in the game, until the end of it if at all.
Lastly, and this is one of the biggest factors in this game that many aren't comprehending. West Va runs a 5 out motion offense meaning that big guys can't stay in the lane. They have to come out to defend, and both Zoubek and Lance Thomas aren't going to be able to stay in the lane. This is one of the reasons why WVU is so good on the offensive glass, because the lane is open from their motion offense. UK got buried in the 2nd half because they came out to stop the 3 ball and WVU got so many cuts to the basket for open looks and layups. That's what happens when you have big guys out trying to guard an entire team of 6'7 and 6'8 wings, which is what West Va does. Baylor is 2 guards then an entire team of post players so it was easier for Duke to defend, as well as shoot against Baylor's 2-3 zone. And as good as Duke offensive rebounded against Baylor, Bayor also had 16 off rebounds of their own.
Duke may very well win, but your logic is flawed. West Va will be playing man to man the whole game and Duke will have to defend that. Duke hasn't beaten anyone and the ACC isn't accustomed to this kind of play. It's a more wide open up and down game. Duke doesn't get up and down the floor ironically this year so they bring their half court game to a team who has made their way to the Final 4 with theirs. Baylor would have been a tougher matchup for WVU than Duke is going to be.
One other note...West Va is on Spring Break this week. No classes, no students around, less distractions. It's an ideal setup for this team to get a good week of practice in. They were back in Morgantown Saturday night as Syracuse was an hour flight, and at work on Sunday.
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Butler vs Butler in the final
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