K'S NCAABB FINAL FOUR **LARGE PLAY**

Nope... I have this at -1, SU win is all I ask... Sticking with this play unless Singler, Scheyer, and Smith get the kneecaps broken by Jeff Gilooly.

I hope you aren't basing all this analysis off of one game, Kentucky?

First off, if you have watched West Va all year, you would know 2 things. 1) They are a fantastic rebounding team. The UK game where the opponent getting so many rebounds isn't the norm, and a main reason why is it's a lot easier for teams to offensive rebound against the 1-3-1, mainly because the point guard is at the bottom of the 1-3-1, which leads me to my next point....

West Va rarely uses the 1-3-1. These morons on TV like Digger Phelps and Vitale keep talking about how WVU plays zone but they are completely clueless. Against Kentucky, was the first time they have used it extensively for an entire game, and that was so UK would continue to launch shots from the outside which they can't make. Normally, WVU goes into the 1-3-1 at the end of the game because it runs clock, and it's something that a team hasn't seen all game, but they play man to man in every game for almost the entire game. The irony is you can get good looks from 3 out of it, which is exactly why WVU won't be running it against Duke, you don't run it against good shooters.  They will get great mileage out of it this week however because Duke has no choice but to spend practice time on it this week, but they won't be seeing it in the game, until the end of it if at all.

Lastly, and this is one of the biggest factors in this game that many aren't comprehending. West Va runs a 5 out motion offense meaning that big guys can't stay in the lane.  They have to come out to defend, and both Zoubek and Lance Thomas aren't going to be able to stay in the lane. This is one of the reasons why WVU is so good on the offensive glass, because the lane is open from their motion offense. UK got buried in the 2nd half because they came out to stop the 3 ball and WVU got so many cuts to the basket for open looks and layups.  That's what happens when you have big guys out trying to guard an entire team of 6'7 and 6'8 wings, which is what West Va does. Baylor is 2 guards then an entire team of post players so it was easier for Duke to defend, as well as shoot against Baylor's 2-3 zone. And as good as Duke offensive rebounded against Baylor, Bayor also had 16 off rebounds of their own.

Duke may very well win, but your logic is flawed. West Va will be playing man to man the whole game and Duke will have to defend that. Duke hasn't beaten anyone and the ACC isn't accustomed to this kind of play. It's a more wide open up and down game. Duke doesn't get up and down the floor ironically this year so they bring their half court game to a team who has made their way to the Final 4 with theirs. Baylor would have been a tougher matchup for WVU than Duke is going to be.

One other note...West Va is on Spring Break this week. No classes, no students around, less distractions. It's an ideal setup for this team to get a good week of practice in. They were back in Morgantown Saturday night as Syracuse was an hour flight, and at work on Sunday.

I was really just joking about this question bro.  BOL 

I said his logic is flawed because the arguments made for Duke aren't true, and they aren't. As I said, Duke may cover and I wouldn't be shocked, but WVU isn't a zone team, and they are a great rebounding team. What is so hard to understand about that? If the OP had said something like their guard play is really bad, or their shooting % sucks, then that's pretty easy to substantiate, but wrong on the points made. 

It's really hard to say anything bad about Butler. They've arguably played the toughest road in the tourney. They beat UTEP who is pretty wide open, Murray St who controls the tempo, then a 1 and 2 seed in Syracuse who presents a tricky zone and K State who should be athletically superior and plays man to man and is very physical. They beat every one of those teams as they did Xavier and Ohio St during the year. 

MIchigan St is banged up, but it's really hard to go against them when Tom Izzo has a week to prepare for Butler. You can't go against him and the experience they have as this group was in the Final 4 last year.  I think Butler's heel is they are small and if you can get Howard in foul trouble, they are really thin. Izzo with a week to prepare is going to try and exploit that you have to think. 

To me this is a no play, it's just to tough to call and I only play games where I think there is an edge. You could make a case for either team and i think the line is correct.  Gun to my head, I would take my chances with Izzo but just think there is a lot more value in  WVU over Duke.

In a champ game though, I like WVU over Butler, I think WVU matches up great with them and would win that game going away, however if it's MSU vs WVU, Id take the points with MSU at anything 4.5 or above. Last year, Dayton handled WVU easily, knew what they were doing, and took away a lot of stuff. Their coach comes from Izzo's tree and they would play similar. Both teams rebound and defend the same way, switching ball screens and running a lot of motion. 

I appreciate the time you put into your posts.  Keep in mind that I have this game at -1.  I'm making an argument that I feel Duke can take this game SU, and my own writeup was not based off of one game like you say.  If you want to challenge my opinions that's fine.  That's your right.  You make some smart observations.  But respectfully, and please take no offense, but you may want to start your own thread.

BOL with your plays 

I don't take offense and I didn't look at it like I was interfering with your glory on here, just discussing the game. But this is where we disagree on how to use this site. When people are putting out wrong info, i see no problem with countering that in the same thread, especially when a lot of people are going to be betting on it and need info.

And you do reference the Kentucky game on many of your points, and you are just flat out wrong thinking that WVU is going to run a zone in this game or that they do much of it. Wont debate that anymore in detail as it is already up above but forums are to help and get thoughts out there. I would feel bad if someone had that false info and I let it go unchecked. If that hurts your feelings and you feel like your pick is being challenged, then sorry but that isn't what my intent was. 

And as I said you may win and be right, but not for many of the reasons you listed, they just aren't correct, you haven't watched them enough if you think things like they don't rebound well and they play a zone. I'd wish you BOL as well but Im on the other side so I cant, but no hard feelings. 

You're absolutely right that WVU doesn't use their zone exclusively... I'll admit to that being false representation in my earlier writeup.  But in my opinion, Duke has seen far more effective defenses than WVU.  And I completely disagree about Baylor being a more difficult opponent.

Also, I never said they didn't rebound well... my reasoning when I took them over Kentucky was because I thought their rebounding was going to be a huge component which it wasn't (which btw, has been huge for them for the most part of the season).  I saw them struggling with UK's size inside and think they might have similar issues with Duke's bigmen.

Being on the other side doesn't mean you can't wish other's luck.  We do it all the time.  

Either way, if you took the points then we both can win.  If you took the ML which it sounds like you did, then one of us will be better off for the day.

Cheers.

https://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/9675/by-the-numbers-duke-vs-big-east