Finished the season strongly + Units on the season and +5 Units today on final Sunday before tourney.
1U = $120
HalfU = $60
Record 0 - 0
Philosophy:
1st round
> parlay upsets from seeds 9 - 15th with one game you really like for a spread or total + a small ML sure bet for a +200 stabs on each game .... these parlays tend to cover all your small bets ....usually just need 2 longshots moneyline to win and some years, I have 5+ hit
> bet on your analysis....not expectations of upsets.....if close when filling out your bracket, lean to dog because if you go in bracket competitions or pools like I do, you get bonus points for upsets so you might as well trust your analysis
> Look for UNDER plays with TOP 3 seeds because they can play flat in the first round trying for dunks and great passing plays instead of their usual rhythm of team play ....only play if your analysis tells you Vegas is too high
Analysis being conducted on my neutral game charts first. I have plotted all neutral game results for the teams in the tourney. Here is what I have discovered so far:
Teams with wins vs Top 10 rated teams: (Neutral Court)
Florida - 3 - 0
Texas - 1 - 0
Georgia - 1 - 0
Michigan - 1 - 0
Wisconsin - 1 - 0
Kansas - 1 - 0
San Diego St -1 - 0
Baylor - 1 - 1
Oregon - 1 - 1
Memphis - 1 - 1
Auburn - 1 - 1
Tennessee - 1 - 1
Alabama - 1 - 1
Kentucky - 1 - 1
More to come........
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Finished the season strongly + Units on the season and +5 Units today on final Sunday before tourney.
1U = $120
HalfU = $60
Record 0 - 0
Philosophy:
1st round
> parlay upsets from seeds 9 - 15th with one game you really like for a spread or total + a small ML sure bet for a +200 stabs on each game .... these parlays tend to cover all your small bets ....usually just need 2 longshots moneyline to win and some years, I have 5+ hit
> bet on your analysis....not expectations of upsets.....if close when filling out your bracket, lean to dog because if you go in bracket competitions or pools like I do, you get bonus points for upsets so you might as well trust your analysis
> Look for UNDER plays with TOP 3 seeds because they can play flat in the first round trying for dunks and great passing plays instead of their usual rhythm of team play ....only play if your analysis tells you Vegas is too high
Analysis being conducted on my neutral game charts first. I have plotted all neutral game results for the teams in the tourney. Here is what I have discovered so far:
Teams with wins vs Top 10 rated teams: (Neutral Court)
Conference and Non - Conference ScheduleWin Leaders vs Final Top 10:
- some interesting results ... blackened = .500 or better record
Florida 6 - 2
Kentucky 5 - 4
Tennessee 4 - 3
Auburn 4 - 4
Memphis 2 - 1
Purdue 2 - 2
Oregon 2 - 2
Texas AM 2 - 3
Missouri 2 - 3
Kansas 2 - 3
Marquette 2 - 3
Alabama 2 - 5 << maybe over rated??
Vanderbilt 2 - 5
Georgia 2 - 6
Duke 1 - 0
Clemson 1 - 0
Michigan St. 1 - 0
TTech 1 - 1
UCLA 1 - 1
Wisconsin 1 - 2
Creighton 1 - 3
Michigan 1 - 3
Texas 1 - 5
Ole Miss 1 - 5
Oklahoma 1 - 5
Arkansas 1 - 5
Illinois 1 - 6
St. Johns 0 - 0
Gonzaga 0 - 0 ( that is not like Few)
Maryland 0 - 1
McNeese 0 - 1
Troy 0 - 1
New Mex. 0 - 1
Xavier 0 - 2
Houston 0 - 2
Baylor 0 - 2
UCONN 0 - 2
Iowa St 0 - 2
BYU 0 - 2
Louisville 0 - 3
Arizona 0 - 3
Mississippi St. 0 - 7(shocked they made the tourney over others!!)
UNC 0 - 7(shocked they made the tourney over others!!)
Will post the records in NEUTRAL GAMES of teams vs TOP 30 and then TOP 100 teams .....probably tomorrow
Will post the records in Conference/Non Conference vs TOP 30 and TOP 100 teams before Tuesday hopefully but no promises..... might as well share my data I do for myself anyway
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Conference and Non - Conference ScheduleWin Leaders vs Final Top 10:
- some interesting results ... blackened = .500 or better record
Florida 6 - 2
Kentucky 5 - 4
Tennessee 4 - 3
Auburn 4 - 4
Memphis 2 - 1
Purdue 2 - 2
Oregon 2 - 2
Texas AM 2 - 3
Missouri 2 - 3
Kansas 2 - 3
Marquette 2 - 3
Alabama 2 - 5 << maybe over rated??
Vanderbilt 2 - 5
Georgia 2 - 6
Duke 1 - 0
Clemson 1 - 0
Michigan St. 1 - 0
TTech 1 - 1
UCLA 1 - 1
Wisconsin 1 - 2
Creighton 1 - 3
Michigan 1 - 3
Texas 1 - 5
Ole Miss 1 - 5
Oklahoma 1 - 5
Arkansas 1 - 5
Illinois 1 - 6
St. Johns 0 - 0
Gonzaga 0 - 0 ( that is not like Few)
Maryland 0 - 1
McNeese 0 - 1
Troy 0 - 1
New Mex. 0 - 1
Xavier 0 - 2
Houston 0 - 2
Baylor 0 - 2
UCONN 0 - 2
Iowa St 0 - 2
BYU 0 - 2
Louisville 0 - 3
Arizona 0 - 3
Mississippi St. 0 - 7(shocked they made the tourney over others!!)
UNC 0 - 7(shocked they made the tourney over others!!)
Will post the records in NEUTRAL GAMES of teams vs TOP 30 and then TOP 100 teams .....probably tomorrow
Will post the records in Conference/Non Conference vs TOP 30 and TOP 100 teams before Tuesday hopefully but no promises..... might as well share my data I do for myself anyway
Without breaking down the games but going off my memory of team play and results from charts....I like the following without looking into the games yet: (this may change once I have looked !)
UC San Diego- Michigan Under 141.5 >> ask yourself why Michigan is only -2.5? UCD expected to control the pace of the game !
Georgia +6.5 - Zaga has a pretty soft neutral court schedule this year and Georgia vs St. Mary's would be a rock fight with the SEC team coming out on top..... Conference final was Zaga -6.5 vs St. Marys
BYU -2.5 - I really like this VCU team BUT ....BYU has played every style of strong team in the TOP 30 this year with good success and VCU has not played anyone in the Top 30 ... will look into how BYU played/shot vs top defensive teams before putting cash down....VCU can shoot well and play defense but can they handle a team with a lot of athleticism/speed that is also a shot making team and battle hardened?
Going to bed....will give first impressions on any lines/Totals for Friday, tomorrow
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Without breaking down the games but going off my memory of team play and results from charts....I like the following without looking into the games yet: (this may change once I have looked !)
UC San Diego- Michigan Under 141.5 >> ask yourself why Michigan is only -2.5? UCD expected to control the pace of the game !
Georgia +6.5 - Zaga has a pretty soft neutral court schedule this year and Georgia vs St. Mary's would be a rock fight with the SEC team coming out on top..... Conference final was Zaga -6.5 vs St. Marys
BYU -2.5 - I really like this VCU team BUT ....BYU has played every style of strong team in the TOP 30 this year with good success and VCU has not played anyone in the Top 30 ... will look into how BYU played/shot vs top defensive teams before putting cash down....VCU can shoot well and play defense but can they handle a team with a lot of athleticism/speed that is also a shot making team and battle hardened?
Going to bed....will give first impressions on any lines/Totals for Friday, tomorrow
-Aztecs beat Creighton and Houston on neutral courts....that's more impressive than UNC beating Dayton and UCLA by slim wins and lowish scores
-SDST is back to playing strong defense after a one year break last year where they blended both and outside shooting....this year's team is unflappable on both ends but doesn't dominate you....they compete and beating Houston a #1 seed indicates so
-love the 5 pt cushion
Play #2 - OVER 149.5 Texas - Xavier x 1U
-two sharp shooting teams who can hit outside or inside and will both benefit from the free flowing game style they are both used to, especially Texas in the SEC style of play it now operates within
-even vs a defensive team like Arkansas, Texas and them were able to hit numbers in the high 140's.....both these teams like to score and I think they will and survival is worth 3-5+ more points on the freethrow line at least for totals, in these one and done type of games
-note too... Texas scored a lot more on the road or neutral site locations /Xavier is a sweet 3 pt shooting team as their first option but can offensively rebound and score inside too
Predicting and 84 - 76 or 84 -81 type of final score...
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Play #1 - San Diego St +5 x 1U
-Aztecs beat Creighton and Houston on neutral courts....that's more impressive than UNC beating Dayton and UCLA by slim wins and lowish scores
-SDST is back to playing strong defense after a one year break last year where they blended both and outside shooting....this year's team is unflappable on both ends but doesn't dominate you....they compete and beating Houston a #1 seed indicates so
-love the 5 pt cushion
Play #2 - OVER 149.5 Texas - Xavier x 1U
-two sharp shooting teams who can hit outside or inside and will both benefit from the free flowing game style they are both used to, especially Texas in the SEC style of play it now operates within
-even vs a defensive team like Arkansas, Texas and them were able to hit numbers in the high 140's.....both these teams like to score and I think they will and survival is worth 3-5+ more points on the freethrow line at least for totals, in these one and done type of games
-note too... Texas scored a lot more on the road or neutral site locations /Xavier is a sweet 3 pt shooting team as their first option but can offensively rebound and score inside too
Predicting and 84 - 76 or 84 -81 type of final score...
Best shot to win who is not a #1 seed > Michigan St. (for numerous reasons both in results/data/coachability) and the fact that there is not a style of team that they would fear playing against ....they are quite ubiquitous in adapting to all styles and will kill teams on the foul line because they know how to get to the bucket and hit for a high percentage FT (top 15 in the land)
2nd Best > Kentucky - almost the antithesis of Michigan St > fast paced scoring but they are surprisingly good in defending the 3 pt shot but give up a lot of easy baskets inside .... I would take Sparty over Kentucky in a close game. If Kentucky improved their FT shooting to a much higher level going into this tourney, they might just surprise (122nd is good but they need to not miss critical shots in the 2nd half!)
Longshot Surprise > Gonzaga - they are playing better defensively this year than I have seen in 10 years and Few has his team flying under the radar not only with their seeding, but their schedule was not as rigorous in the Non Conf and Few might be trying something new this year in consciously doing so. They showed St. Mary's how much they have improved by dominating the final after losing 2x to St. Mary's in the regular season. They have tools but now can motivation even open up their possibilities?
By no means are these 3 my favorite teams but I am rather being realistic about the chances that someone truly rises and upsets one of the big 3 and finds themselves in a one and done game for a it all....
Of the Big 3, I rate them to win:
1.Florida - size, shooting, reach, plays, killer instinct, motivation, coaching all combine to equal = juggernaut that has improved all year
2.Duke - tenacious defense if they choose to deploy for a quarter or more and strangle a team, then outshoot or out pass for the perfect shot time in and time again I watch them > gutsy Conference semi and final with 2 of best players out
3. Auburn - love watching this immensely talented team with a killer instinct but they are looking a little 'tired' to me? That could change with Bruce Pearl in rare form with his players as his energy and wit can be magnetic and I think he knows how to press their buttons to compete so it would not surprise me if they beat everyone
Will mention any other dogs I see to go far as I crack through how each team has done vs the Top 50 rated and how good their neutral court record is vs good teams (I have that done) .....will report when complete as part 2 is slower and only have done 14 teams so far
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
So far, my dark horses are to win it all are:
Best shot to win who is not a #1 seed > Michigan St. (for numerous reasons both in results/data/coachability) and the fact that there is not a style of team that they would fear playing against ....they are quite ubiquitous in adapting to all styles and will kill teams on the foul line because they know how to get to the bucket and hit for a high percentage FT (top 15 in the land)
2nd Best > Kentucky - almost the antithesis of Michigan St > fast paced scoring but they are surprisingly good in defending the 3 pt shot but give up a lot of easy baskets inside .... I would take Sparty over Kentucky in a close game. If Kentucky improved their FT shooting to a much higher level going into this tourney, they might just surprise (122nd is good but they need to not miss critical shots in the 2nd half!)
Longshot Surprise > Gonzaga - they are playing better defensively this year than I have seen in 10 years and Few has his team flying under the radar not only with their seeding, but their schedule was not as rigorous in the Non Conf and Few might be trying something new this year in consciously doing so. They showed St. Mary's how much they have improved by dominating the final after losing 2x to St. Mary's in the regular season. They have tools but now can motivation even open up their possibilities?
By no means are these 3 my favorite teams but I am rather being realistic about the chances that someone truly rises and upsets one of the big 3 and finds themselves in a one and done game for a it all....
Of the Big 3, I rate them to win:
1.Florida - size, shooting, reach, plays, killer instinct, motivation, coaching all combine to equal = juggernaut that has improved all year
2.Duke - tenacious defense if they choose to deploy for a quarter or more and strangle a team, then outshoot or out pass for the perfect shot time in and time again I watch them > gutsy Conference semi and final with 2 of best players out
3. Auburn - love watching this immensely talented team with a killer instinct but they are looking a little 'tired' to me? That could change with Bruce Pearl in rare form with his players as his energy and wit can be magnetic and I think he knows how to press their buttons to compete so it would not surprise me if they beat everyone
Will mention any other dogs I see to go far as I crack through how each team has done vs the Top 50 rated and how good their neutral court record is vs good teams (I have that done) .....will report when complete as part 2 is slower and only have done 14 teams so far
To demonstrate what I mean about Kentucky as I just broke them down..... they went 5 - 4 vs TOP 10 teams in Conference Play/tourneys.....and 4 - 1 vs teams ranked 11 - 25th .....BUT were only 2 - 6 vs teams finally ranked 26 - 50th
If they can clear the way to the Elite Eight..... they have a legit shot! IF.......
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
To demonstrate what I mean about Kentucky as I just broke them down..... they went 5 - 4 vs TOP 10 teams in Conference Play/tourneys.....and 4 - 1 vs teams ranked 11 - 25th .....BUT were only 2 - 6 vs teams finally ranked 26 - 50th
If they can clear the way to the Elite Eight..... they have a legit shot! IF.......
Duke is not 'weathered' as much as SEC top teams because they have had a medium - soft schedule in their volume of games.....playing a lot of middling good to very good teams rather than very good to excellent teams all the time. They were pushed sometimes because teams HAD TO in order to overcome Duke's well built defense and style of complimentary play that was designed....
They are one of the FRESHEST TEAMS to enter tourney play so long as they are fit from injury. They played only 7 teams all season long in the final TOP 25 but were 5 - 2 vs and 4 - 1 vs teams ranked 26 - 50th
Auburn should have an easier path as the overall #1 and easier bracket normally but I expect DUKE to take care of business too....to get to the final 4 with going easy on Flagg until his ankle is perfect for that final 4 battle
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Duke is not 'weathered' as much as SEC top teams because they have had a medium - soft schedule in their volume of games.....playing a lot of middling good to very good teams rather than very good to excellent teams all the time. They were pushed sometimes because teams HAD TO in order to overcome Duke's well built defense and style of complimentary play that was designed....
They are one of the FRESHEST TEAMS to enter tourney play so long as they are fit from injury. They played only 7 teams all season long in the final TOP 25 but were 5 - 2 vs and 4 - 1 vs teams ranked 26 - 50th
Auburn should have an easier path as the overall #1 and easier bracket normally but I expect DUKE to take care of business too....to get to the final 4 with going easy on Flagg until his ankle is perfect for that final 4 battle
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