Last2Thirst - Conf Play Picks

Tuesday:  2 - 0  + 2.5U ... just keep grinding on best correlations and the work I put into it...no hunching

@Last2thirst

 North Alabama has been a quiet money maker this year.

Good Fortune heading into March! 

 Thanks  Xdodge

Yes, they have been sneaky good. They are ranked #170 in my ratings facing a team ranked #339th and my correlation charts lead to a ranking bias of 30 - 11 ATS for the favorite no matter the spread when these rank zones tend to meet (151st - 190th rank vs 331st or worse) since Conference Play began on Jan 1 

-teams also ranked 151- 190th were hitting 4 - 0 ATS when a favorite of -16 to -20.5 .....make that 5 - 0 now so yes, a very powerful double correlation hit tonight for me and I am happy that you got it too and if its your team, that is even better!

GL the rest of the season 

Play #1 Wednesday - OVER 175.5 St Thomas -South Dakota x 2.5U ($300)

-when these two teams played in their first game at St. Thomas, they scored 200+ pts easily

-South Dakota is consistently a 90 pt scoring home team when playing a good offensive team

-St Thomas offense is one of the best in college for shooting and temp.....this game is going to be a track meet and scoring fest easily going over this number 

I will look for more later tomorrow....but this is a real chance to grab some easy UNITS in my opinion. I made +2.5 U tonight so what the hell eh? 

Really like one other game tonight with a great home court especially when playing a similar rank or sometimes beating a slightly better team...

Denver -3 x 1U

-Oral Roberts is 0 - 13 ATS on the road !

1 - 1 and gave back 1.5 Units

South Dakota once again proves it is a great home court! But not good enough to go OVER that number ....

GL today 2 

Thanks Fuse 

Might play some horses instead. Weather has been terrible last couple of weeks but not tonight!!

Saturday Play #1 - Texas AM - Tennessee OVER 130.5 x 1U

- DR ratings highest TOTAL prediction underlay (by over 10 pts!) > they think the total should be over 140!

- going to try them out because their ratings have been strong for my correlations all year and took the time to check out their predictions....this one stood out by far (going to try them out in the last few weeks + do my own double correlations, leading up to March Madness)

-games at noon.....tends to not be really low scoring I find (not this low)

Play #2 - Liberty -13 x Half U 

-strong double correlation for spread with rank zones between opponents in my spreadsheet

Play #3 - StoneyBr - NC At+T Over 134.5 x HALF U

-DR ratings has a prediction result above 145 total for this one 

Play #4 - Citadel +19.5 x HALF U 

-strong Double FADE of favourite correlation against Chattanooga

Play #5 - Mercer +3.5 x 1 U 

-my strongest Double Fade of the early afternoon so far

-according to my chart, teams that are ranked like UNC Greensboro in the 150 = 190th percentile are 25 - 40 ATS versus a 260th ranked opponent like Mercer and also, when a line is -3 to -5.5 for the favorite, the success rate is just 21 - 53 - 3 ATS as a spread 

- take the home dog here!!!

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These are strong plays I feel up to 3 pm today.....will have some more later

4pm - 6 pm games:

Play #6 - Okie St +14.5  x HALF U  

-double fade correlation

- teams ranked 21-40 (Kansas) are 13 - 20 ATS as favorites when facing a team ranked 91 - 120th ....but it gets worse when they face a spread of -11 to -15.5 >> they are just 5 - 21 ATS vs this spread area 

Play #7 - Nevada -1 x HALF U 

-very powerful double correlation with a team ranked in the 60's beating teams in the 40-45 rank percentile like Boise to the tune of 9 - 2 ATS 

Teaser 5pts: HALF U

- SJSU St +10 with Okie St +19.5 with Radford Over 129

$30

- Seattle +10.5 with Okie St +19.5 with Radford Over 129 with UCRiver Under 165.5

- Houston Chri. +7 with Okie St +19.5 with Norfolk - 8.5 with UCRiver Under 165.5

-Akron Under 171.5 with SJSU +10 with Texas St +3 with Texas Southern -19

Saturday Play #1 - Texas AM - Tennessee OVER 130.5 x 1U  

Play #2 - Liberty -13 x Half U   push!

Play #3 - StoneyBr - NC At+T Over 134.5 x HALF U   

Play #4 - Citadel +19.5 x HALF U   

Play #5 - Mercer +3.5 x 1 U  

Good start to the day.... 3 - 1 - 1  (+1U)

......capping 7 - 8 pm games now because I am capping Mohawk Harness on my horse thread after 

Rest of the night games:

Play #8 Over Gonzaga 141.5 x HALF U

-Zags will dictate the pace and calls from the refs ... I can see a 75-69 type of score or higher

-I have seen scores in the past around 130 pts with 2-3 minutes to play balloon up to over 145 with these 2 teams....strong rivalry and they foul right up to the end of the match regardless of score because they always want to play their opponent closely

Play #9 Montana St - 1.5 x 1U

-strong rivalry + strong double correlation for the favorite usually implies a home win in this case

Have a good night and if you like horses (standardbreds with harness), come over to my Harness thread with a PICK5 being handicapped for Race #1 - 5 tonight.... 

Making my picks for Sunday using my correlation charts.....really good day in Kings using all Correlation picks except for a couple of plays

 02/22/2025    23 - 14 - 1   62.16%    +3900

Sunday: - double correlation ATS high % for faves or Double Fades vs fave

Play #1 - UCONN -3.5 x HALF U   (DC)

- STRONG LEAN to OVER ....might play in the morning

Play #2 - Cleveland St. +3 x HALF U (DF) 

Play #3 - UCF - 2.5 x HALF U (DC)

 Teaser (5 pt) $30 each > return $33 profit per win>  S. Florida Over 125.5 with Manhattan Under 161 with:

1. Wisc Milwaukee +6.5

2. N. Iowa Over 121.5 

3. Purdue +1.5

4. S. Dak St. Over 140.5

5. UCLA Over 135

6. Georgetown +17.5

$30 TEASER - 4 way = HALF U profit 

> S.Florida +9.5 with UNDER 161 Manhattan with Over N. Iowa 121.5 with USC +8.5

> UNDER S. Florida 135.5 same as above (next 3 )

Might not play the UCF -2.5 .....will wait for line movement before deciding ....think it might move to a lower number since they have lost 6 games in a row....Double Correlation (DC) charting says I should go for it