Last2Thirst - Conf Play Picks

With you on this 2nd half 

2nd half started well...but getting stupid again....too many fouls

I have some picks for 1pm games: *** Proceed with caution until I show better and my chart is locked in*** >> have lots of data so I am running with it now that it is FEB 1... I hate January because the worm turns over every fricken year!!

All plays hit a strong correlation in spread and rank zone of team vs rank zone of opponent:

Strongest - Florida Gulf -12.5 x 1U

Good - Wagner -3 x HALF U

TEASER 5 pts: Arizona -2 with Mississippi St with: - all for $30 each

1. Hofstra +3.5

2. W. Georgia +15.5

3. Creighton +7

Sorry for the late plays....but want to prove myself before again before I have anyone tailing me over a cliff like I have recently

Working on 2pm plays and will only post 1 maybe or 2 suggestions because I want these ones above to air out and see how my chart is doing for me.

3pm - 4 pm I will focus on those before I go rollerskating with my wife....we are jacked to do this at 3pm

@Last2thirst

GL today and will be tailing at some point.  Hammer 'em!!  

Thanks @BeeRich  ... I think you should wait until I reverse here and have plenty of data now to rely in for Conference Play

Speaking of....

2pm game that screams strong double correlation to take > Radford -12.5 x 1U

- pretty good fade play too in Charles South +4.5 as a double correlation but I think VEGAS knows this and put the line too low for anyone to benefit perhaps.....because Longwood is ranked 179th and Charles is improving their rank just above 300th now

3x more Strong correlation plays at 2pm

Bryant -12 x   << going to not play this one because of high road # to cover

Gardiner +5.5 @ Winthrop x HALF U

ECU +3 @ Temple x HALF U

3-4 pm next.....

L2T......

Nothing really compelling at 3 pm games.....not going rollerskating now until past 8pm ....better music apparently for adult skate

So capping away all afternoon 

2 fade games at 3 pm I am using in my contest ...taking dogs Indiana St and New Mex St + points for both

Fade Miami Ohio at 3:30pm  > take Ohio +6 x HALF U for me

Sides/Totals with strong correlations = 2 - 0 +1.5 U so far ....  

-one correlation picks are meh ....which is why I used in teasers and won't anymore

Radford -12 game open to complete

Gardiner +5.5 open

ECU +3 open

curious to see how a strong pick I didn't play does >> Bryant 

-taking now (see up at top) Ohio +6

....so 1 Fave + 3 Fades....really curious to see how FADES do because I didn't trust them for the most part but the 3 I am putting money on are DOUBLE FADE correlations

4pm games with double correlation:

Old Dom +10 x HALF U > double fade of JMad

Marshall -11.5 

UCIrivine -13 x HALF U 

N.Arizona +7.5

430 games next ....

4:30 pm games:

Double Correlation > take SE Louisiana -12 x 1U vs New Orleans

Personal fave with one correlation > Mich St x HALF U

@Last2thirst

Yessir!  Any input on the Texas A&M at S.Carolina game.  TAMU is -5.5 on the road but SC seems to keep it damn close vs. top teams.  I'm still 

Revenge game....I have AM in parlays with a lot of things....S.Carolina is strong on home court vs good teams

Gotta make dinner and lots of games to mull....but its gonna take too much time now and wife and I have to eat and relax

Watching DUKE-UNC...got UNDER

Game I absolutely am going to press on is UTAH VALLEY +10.5 (had to pay for half pt) x3U

UNDER 146 x 1.5 U in the same game....both teams play games low scoring relative to others when they get together

Same with Gonzaga-STM >> play of the day is UNDER 145.5 x 2U

-HALF U parlay Gonzaga ml .....yes STM is strong defense and rebounding but this is one of the best Gonzaga defensive teams in a while with the same shooting ability and cuts that they are famous for with Few as a coach and they win this one 72-69

One play really stands out...

TexamCC -7.5 x 1U

-teams ranked 151-190th are 22 - 6 ATS when facing teams over 331+

Winner > Chicken Dinner 

Sorry....busy and could not post but was able to cap and get my Kings picks in.....I am now exclusively using my correlation chart and when I tried to use it or just pick sides in January, it was a disaster. 

Now that I have specific double correlations that I use, I actually had a lot of picks that were either double fades and positive ATS double correlations....a lot of them doing well except the one pick I went against and incorrectly, they are getting smoked by Ole Miss which is what my correlations told me to play tonight!

PUR at IOWA 07:00 PM
O 155.5
NIU at BGSU 07:00 PM
NIU +6.0
DRKE at MURR 07:00 PM
DRKE -4.0
WICH at CHAR 07:00 PM
CHAR +3.5
UK at MISS 07:00 PM
UK +4.5
ND at FSU 07:00 PM
FSU -3.0
MINN at PSU 07:00 PM
PSU -7.0
EIU at SIUE 08:30 PM
SIUE -6.5
USC at NW 09:00 PM
USC +2.5
SBON at L-IL 09:00 PM
SBON +3.0
GT at CLEM 09:00 PM
GT +12.0
IND at WIS 09:00 PM
WIS -9.0
SJSU at FRES 10:00 PM
FRES +3.0
BSU at UNLV 11:00 PM
BSU -3.0

I have 3 more days of data results from last week to input in my **new correlation chart** that was started Jan 1, 2025 for Conference Play only.......

I have a shit ton of results and there are some glaring correlations that are starting to show success in high % + some FADES of favorites:

BEST FAVES ATS situations: (must stay up to date on changing ranking data if you follow these/update each week!)

-when team is ranked 151-190 > 26 - 7 ATS when playing a team ranked 331 or worse

-when team is ranked in Top 20 > 16 - 8 ATS when playing another team in the Top 20

-when team is ranked 66 - 90th, and they are playing a tam ranked 41 - 65th = 5 - 1 ATS

-when team is ranked 191st - 230th, and they are playing a tam ranked 121 - 150th = 5 - 1 ATS

Best SPREADS for Favorite ATS:

-when a team ranked 151 - 190th has a line of -16 to -20.5

-when a team ranked 331st or worse has a line of -3 to -5.5

There are some other great double correlations that are strong, but I will not use those in my picks in here until they get even stronger like the ones above .....I will use them in KINGS to gain rank improvements but that does not cost me or you money!

Best FADE THE FAVORITE lines or rank set vs rank set scenarios:

#1 > when a team ranked 151 - 190th is playing another team ranked 121 - 150th, they are  1 - 12 - 1 ATS as a favorite

#2 > when a team ranked 21st - 40th has a spread of -11 to -15.5, fade them ! = 2 - 17th ATS covering that spread!

I have 3-4 more scenarios but those are the strongest by far 

Play #1 - UNC Greensboro -12.5 x 2U

Play #2 Stanford -3 x 1U

Play #3 - TCU - 1.5 x 1U

Play #4 -Boston College +14 x HALF U

4 best plays of the night....according to my best ATS stats

Might plug some HALF U plays later on numbers I like that fit double correlations...... I didn't do all this hard work for nothing