Last2Thirst - Conf Play Picks

Mount St. Mary's -2 x 1U is my initial play of the day.....I had Yale OVER 154.5 on parlays but did not post here

L2T......

Been tough...... opposites-bad teams flipping better ones on a half of my plays ....some correlations won't matter when this happens

 That said.... I like the following so far Saturday: HALF U unless stated otherwise

Clemson - Virginia OV 132.5 - Cavs playing 5 - 10 pts higher per game this year and Clemson playing 5 pts higher on the road than most years.....I see Clemson with 70+  and Cavs should get 65 on home court

Miami Ohio +5 - very strong double fade and they have a better record than home team!

N. Kentucky -1.5 - very positive double correlation for home team

Wrote and played these last night for early games and forgot to send...... more to come in time

I got +6.5 for Miami Ohio 

Fade Teasers - 5 pts - HALF U > American +9 with Miami Ohio +11.5 with Arkansas +6

> same first two above with  UMBC +12

Boston -2 x 1 U (1.80) - usually very deadly scoring team in their conference at home and earlier in the week they showed the same shooting form on the road.....very high on this team in how they keep in most games and execute and this line is weak in my opinion 

2 pm -4 pm games will be next 

Southern -5 HALF U

Teasers: 5 pts > $30 each > payout $33 profit per win

1. E.Kentucky Over 137.5 with Queens +10.5 with Alcorn Over 129.5

2. Eky Over 137.5 with Queens Over 141 with  Morgan St Under 169.5

3. Morgan St. Under 169.5 with Queens +10.5 with UTGRV Under 157

5. Morgan St. Under 169.5 with NW St Over 126 with Over Lipscomb 136.5

6. UTRGV Under 157 with NW st Over 126 with Portland St. Ov 129.5

7. UTRGV Under 157 with Wichita Over 123.5 with UCLA OV 126.5

8. Ov Lipscomb 136.5 with EWU Over 140.5 with Wichita Ov 123.5

Might have a few more sides coming up....did some strong research on totals and going to try all of these...testing something I have found

Southern -5 HALF U  

Teasers: 5 pts > $30 each > payout $33 profit per win  

1. E.Kentucky Over 137.5 with Queens +10.5 with Alcorn Over 129.5 

2. Eky Over 137.5 with Queens Over 141 with  Morgan St Under 169.5  NO

3. Morgan St. Under 169.5 with Queens +10.5 with UTGRV Under 157 

5. Morgan St. Under 169.5 with NW St Over 126 with Over Lipscomb 136.5  

6. UTRGV Under 157 with NW st Over 126 with Portland St. Ov 129.5  

7. UTRGV Under 157 with Wichita Over 123.5 with UCLA OV 126.5  

8. Ov Lipscomb 136.5 with EWU Over 140.5 with Wichita Ov 123.5

Will check on last 2  in the morning....spent $300 on the night and getting back so far = $252  return ...so could add to my profit total by the morning

Been having lots of success using DR Ratings totals ....using them in parlays where Vegas was too skinny on a total....lots of OVERs hitting . I did not want to share but gave them 10 days roughly and will now:

Playing these in Teasers or Sides:

Elon Over

Vandy +5.5

Manhattan Under

Rhode Island Under 

Georgetown + pts teaser key >> they want NCAA tourney badly!

Tennessee Over

TexAM Over

Air Force +22.5

Fresno Over

George Mason Over

VTECH +18.5

UNC +11 << I would be slamming Duke but UNC has really turned the corner these past few weeks

Long Beach Under 

UC Riverside OV

Cal Fullerton +14.5

UC SanDiego Ov < favorite team to get a win no matter the spread and especially if home but away in this one

L2T......

 6 - 4 in Straight Totals

3 - 2  Sides

got keys for Teasers and made a little money.... onto tomorrow

Lipscomb Over 142.5 x 1 U

Drexel Over 123 x HALF U

5 pt teaser > Sparty -2.5 with Winthrop Over 153 with Nebraska Over 150

> Lipscomb Over 137.5 with Wichita Over 138.5 with Drake Over 113.5

Sorry...forgot to send this before I went to a store to do some parlays with soccer and other sports

Drake Over 118.5 x 1U

Wofford Over 138.5 x 1U 

South Alabama Over  135.5 x HALF U

TexAM CC  Over  135 x Half U 

James Mad Over 131.5 x Half U

Omaha Over 149.5 x 2U 

Notice lots of Overs? Desperation and focus time....lots of shooting on the foul line this time of the year

Tip: click the matchup button and look at scores in March last year or other years.....you tend to see way more OVER totals between two teams compared to their regular conference play

Drake game coming up is a good example:

Last 3 March games = 139 , 140 , 128  ....both their games this year were OVER 118.5 but not too far over.......like my chances

Games after that are similar coming up...

5 - 3 on OVERS +2 U ...but lost $60 on Teasers

TexAM CC Over 128.5 x Half U

Delaware Over 144 x  Half U

Nichols St Over 137.5 x 1U

5 pt Teaser ($30) each:

A. Delaware +11 with  Nichols St Over 132.5 + Furman +3.5 << these will return $60 profit

B. Nichols St +1.5 with  Portland St. << these return profit of $33 each

1. Under Troy 144

2. Over TexAM CC

3. Troy +7 

4. SF  +19.5

5. Robert Morris +1.5

Play of the Day: UNDER ST.Marys 134.5 

- Pepperdine has played 4 games in 4 nights tonight....St. Marys first game in 9 days

- St. Marys defense has no reason to play sloppy now and wouldn't let Pepperdine to crack 50 pts in the 2 games they played and probably won't and if they do...they won't get over 55

-St. Marys might be rusty shooting but will score under the basket using the clock and they shouldn't score more than 75

Worse case score > 75 - 55

UNDER! 

x 2U for me

Holy great night on Totals...finally 

TexAM CC Over 128.5 x Half U  

 Delaware Over 144 x  Half U  

Nichols St Over 137.5 x 1U  

St Marys 75 - 55  (74 - 59!)

UNDER! 

 x 2U   

Need Portland St to get their head out of their ass and not lose $300 on Teasers ....up +4U on the night for $480 profit

Tuesday plays: - CAUTION >> perfect record on Totals Monday so going to be careful 

Grambling Over 130.5 x HALF U  (prediction DR = > 140 pts)

Southern Utah + 6.5 x 1U  << Utah Tech is 0 -16 ATS on the road !!!

Robert Morris Over 131 x1U 

Teaser 5 pts: $30 each

Okie St. +12 with Pitt Over 131.5 with  Southern Utah +11.5 

1. Colorado +7.5

2. Over S. Utah 139.5

3. VTECH +9

4. Under Sienna 142.5

5. Maine Over 118

6. NW St  +21.5

7. Arizona St  +11 << one of the most impressive teams when I go back to Nov-Jan and playing neutral site games 

FROM MY NOTES ON NEUTRAL SITE GAMES for ARZST:

 Santa Cl W 81 - 74

Grand Canyon W 87 - 76

New Mex W 85 - 82

St. Marys W 68 - 64

Florida L 83 - 66

Will have some more maybe later.....that is enough today for now (games that I like to 8pm tonight)

GL today 

Backup parlay > 1U 

combo Cincy -1 2nd half with Under Sienna 137 with Bryant ML ...this returns back 2U if I hit

I am concerned about my TEASERS 

Thanks Fuse...you bring luck pal   ...same with IAdecimal

@Last2thirst

 Bol

Shit.. Okie St flat and Teasers pooched

New  teaser  > 2U  << do not following my habit of pressing but I am up large on the season 

Gonzaga UNDER 145.5 with S.Utah +10.5 with Sienna Under 141.5

Thanks man 

Gonzaga-St.Marys UNDER 138.5

-statistically, this is the best defense each team has had in 5 years

-Conference win will matter and this will be hard fought to get buckets with both teams in prevention mode, rather than turning the ball over by jacking up quick shots......ZAGA tends to be more methodical on neutrals courts and their score totals prove so in my data sets

-check the last 3 March games and you will see totals reached of:

129 

127

128

-two game totals played this year in Feb

141

120

I would press more (up to 3U) but already have them teased for more....

UNDER 138.5 Gonzaga x 1.5U