Last2Thirst - Conf Play Picks

Play #1 - UNC Greensboro -12.5 x 2U   boo yah!!!

Also:

Play #2 Stanford -3 x 1U

Play #3 - TCU - 1.5 x 1U

Play #4 -Boston College +14 x HALF U  

YES GUY!!! TCU boo yah....Conference Play data is bearing fruit now.....don't make shit plays on minimal data....NOT GOOD ENOUGH and now I can follow high % data and tune out the rest. Let's see if Stanford can bring it home too

Play #1 - UNC Greensboro -12.5 x 2U   boo yah!!!

Also:

Play #2 Stanford -3 x 1U

Play #3 - TCU - 1.5 x 1U  

Play #4 -Boston College +14 x HALF U  

Stanford cannot hit shots ....East coast teams tend to have rough first games on the west coast after first landing ....nothing wrong with Wake's shooting tonight!

Thursday Double correlations and strong ATS biases:

NCAT+T +17.5 x HALF U now 

waiting on Elon - Campbell just before start...whomever is Fave, going with that side -1 to -2 x HALFU 

Bryant-Albany OVER 158.5 x HALF U now....when spread is strong for favorite but ranking zones are not, I tend to go OVER and assume my data senses a good offensive battle, with the dog pushing the favorite at home ...Bryant is fully capable of scoring 85-90 pts on Albany who gave up 87 vs Maine and Fordham and Bryant has a stronger offense than both those in my opinion....first game between got 158 pts

Delaware +5 x HALF U now

W. Kentucky +2.5 x 1U now > very adverse rank combo for favorite in my charts and fade of spread (double correlation)

Jacksonville -10 x  HALF U now and fishing for -9.5 for another HALF U> very strong ATS correlation with these ranks and greenlight on the spread 

SE Missouri St +3.5 x HALF U > double fade vs Morehead

Jacksonville St -1.5 x HALF U > going to wait until close to 7 pm ...strong correlation for them vs opponents rank but if the line flips, I don't want to be on MTSU

Florida Gulf  -6 x HALF U > good double correlation here ....it line drops, spread not good stats

Will have some more plays once I compare the 8pm games and later ones...getting these in now unless stated watching and might play closer to 7pm ....I am doing horses tonight too so I have to be careful and remember

Some updates on Bet spreads achieved before 7pm or others that changed when I laid them:

Delaware +5.5 is what I got

Elon -1 instead of the other way 

Temple +2.5 

Jacksonville St. -2

other half of Jacksonville bet @ Stetson got -8.5 

All the above were half U bets

UC San Diego -11.5 x HALF U

Oregon St BEAVERS!! -5.5 x 1U ....fave home team to bet and I like the OVER here too x HALFU OVER 145

NCAT+T +17.5 x HALF U 

waiting on Elon - Campbell just before start... x HALFU  > Elon -1  

Bryant-Albany OVER 158.5 x HALF U 

Delaware +5.5 x HALF U 

W. Kentucky +2.5 x 1U  

Jacksonville -10 x  HALF U now  and another HALF U -8.5 

SE Missouri St +3.5 x HALF U 

Jacksonville St -2 x HALF U 

Florida Gulf  -6 x HALF U  

UC San Diego -11.5 x HALF U  

 Oregon St BEAVERS!! -5.5 x 1U  x HALFU OVER 145  

7 - 6  + HALF U .... still not zinging for high % but positive cash.... and Kings has had 5 winning percentage days in a row after a nasty 2 week drop

Saturday plays:

Appalachian St. +5 x HALF U

Cornell Over 158 x HALF U

Parlay Half U:  Columbia ML with Coastal Carolina +5 with Grand Canyon ML > returns over +200

Teaser $30 each > pay +$33 profit return (5 pt change): Cornell +9 with Little Rock Under 134 with:

1. UIC +6

2. UIC Over 147

3. Kansas +1.5

4. Louisville -13

5. Northern Kentucky +3.5

6. Akron -2

HALF U > Yale +1 with Toledo +6.5 with UNDER 134 Little Rock with Kansas +1.5 > PAYS +1 U profit

Lines are tight early.....I forgot to post(send) late last night my 3 fave early plays:

Holy Cross +1

Under W.Mich 149.5 

Kentucky -10.5 

I have capped the whole slate but am watching lines.....and will post as the day goes on. Snowstorm about to start soon 

HALF U TEASERS 5 PT

Akron -2 with Arkansas St +6 with:

Clemson +10.5 

Duke - 0.5 

Grand Canyon -1

Charlotte -1 x HALF U....coming up ...good double correlation

Missouri -4 x 1U ....very good double correlation

Under Villanova 141.5 x 1 U

Under South Flor  147 x 1U

- my Play of the Day > Oregon St -13 x 2U

- they already beat this team by 40 in their opponents home building and there is no better home court for the home team, than maybe Kansas or Michigan in past years.....and the Beavers are proving it again this year

ATS Double Correlation play

N.Dakota St -12.5 x 1U 

Experience/Observation bets

Alabama -1 x HALF U  <<< they love stiff competition!

OVER Alabama 171.5 x 1U < laid this last night and would not hesitate to go OVER this number as I see a score at the very least of one scoring 90-100 pts and the other close 

Kentucky /Texas Over 159 x HALF U....love playing Texas Overs at home where they play a more open offensive style....and they have an opponent who will let them score inside well and quickly but also shoot on them from outside for easy buckets

Illinois +6.5 x HALF U ... Sparty has fallen off the back of the truck that was rolling through everyone .....and Illinois was there  a couple of weeks ago. I have a feeling that the West coast trips are messing up teams feel  and I see this on most teams having to over come bad stretches after 

Florida -14 x HALF U ... this team is so big and athletic....they are now hitting their stride with their systems even better ....and South Carolina is terrible on the road.... I think Gators might win by over 20

Army-Navy UNDER 143 x 1U

L2T.......

 my Play of the Day > Oregon St -13 x 2U  

 ATS Double Correlation play

N.Dakota St -12.5 x 1U 

 Experience/Observation bets

Alabama -1 x HALF U  

OVER Alabama 171.5 x 1U 

Army-Navy UNDER 143 x 1U  

Kentucky /Texas Over 159 x HALF U

Illinois -6.5 x HALF U << had an error at +6.5 ....meant -6.5

Florida -14 x HALF U 

Digging into some more late now ...

Not Bad ....I went 5 - 3 Sides + 3 U  and 21 - 9 - 1 ATS in Kings

My charts were used exclusively for KINGS and are now ready for the final stretch, March Madness, NIT, etc tourneys and I plan to finish very strong 

In the last 5-6 days of doing KINGS. The two terrible days are randomly picking sides without checking:

02/15/2025 21-9-1 
02/14/2025 11-15-0
02/13/2025 19-35-0 
02/12/2025 46-35-3 
02/10/2025 7-2-0

No real super standouts on Sunday so I am going to play TEASERS on the ones that are FADES or decent good correlations;

5 PT Tease: $30 each

KEY: St. Johns Under 146.5 with Northwestern +6.5 with:

1. South Dakota +10.5

2. South Dakota Under 177.5

3. Drake -1

4. Iona +11

5. Detroit +18.5

6. Detroit UNDER 141.5

7. New Mexico Even

8. Oregon -2.5

4 way pay $60 profit

> Under St. Johns 146.5 with South Dakota +10.5 with Drake -1 with Nebraska +3.5

> Under St Johns with 146.5 with South Dakota +10.5 with New Mex E with Nebraska +3.5

> UNDER South Dak 177.5 with Louisville -2 with UAB -3.5 with New Mexico E

> New Mex. Even with St.J -1 with Louisville Under 150.5 with South Dakota +10.5

Knew I was meh on the day...made $360 profit yesterday and today I bet $360 >  Got one chance to make back $90 with one play open.... degenerate curse....just making action means losses usually

My play of the day > Southern -7 x 2U .... BEAT T-South already by 9 on the road and being a team that is 100 ranks lower than their visitor, I won't expect an ambush because Southern already held them to under 59 pts and won't mind an uptempo game in their building with refs tending to assist the home team

-Duke -13 (1.7) with Over 130.5 (1.74) is a nice parlay > HALF U 

- This Virginia team is about 5-10 pts weaker on defense this year and Duke is working on their offense running up some scores which they will need vs SEC and BIG10 teams in the big tourney

Howard -12.5 x HALFU

Under 147.5 x 1U

TEASER 5 PTS: Miss Valley St UNDER 143 with NC Central -3.5 with Southern -2 x HALF U 

and 4 way plays for $30 (pay HALF U profit) > same above with:

East TexasAM +9.5

Lamar +6 

SC Carolina St -11.5

think I'll enter the Ncaa mens contest next year   always done well in contest, because I really have to select the games to enter in     gl this year

Thanks Rum  Its a lot of work but fun too and has mostly proven profitable except for January .... I was in Top 10-30 but fell by the wayside when my data charts no longer worked in Conference Play. I had to re-construct them to learn what tended to work at higher %'s

This is the first year recording every line result and I think I am also going to do this in baseball with my own twist with each league and scoring.... rankings and maybe a temperature correlation with scoring

Monday Summary:

My play of the day > Southern -7 x 2U  

-Duke -13 (1.7) with Over 130.5 (1.74) parlay > HALF U   

Howard -12.5 x HALFU  

Under 147.5 x 1U   (missed it by a half a point)

Teasers: - $150

Despite Teaser give back....made 1U ($120) overall on the night 

Only strong double correlation I see is Colorado St -3.5 at home vs Nevada >>> x 1U

Still looking for another ...if not, good enough

North Alabama -16.5 is another I played with a double correlation x HALF U .....it has the highest % success vs a team ranked over 330th