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Last2thirst Conference Play and March to Madness Season

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Posted: #176
Rankings going into Saturday....

 #1 San Diego St. 
-----------------------------------------------------
#2 - Baylor
#3 - Gonzaga
#4 - Duke
#5 - Kansas
-----------------------------------------------------
#6 - Louisville
#7 - Dayton
#8 - WVU
#9 - Texas Tech
#10- Kentucky

Poised for T- 10:  
11. Penn St.   12. Maryland  13. FSU 14. Creighton 
15. Colorado  16. Auburn 17. Wichita 18. Seton Hall 19. Oregon          20. Houston

TOP 25 >  BYU,  Butler, St. Mary's, Arizona, Illinois, Stanford, 
  
>>> OUT OF TOP 25 > LSU, N. Iowa, Cinci., Marquette,    Memphis, Arkansas, Michigan St., Mississippi St, Utah St,   Virginia, SMU,  USC, Florida, S. Carolina,  Indiana, Iowa,   Michigan, Tulsa, Liberty, Richmond,    VCU, Ohio St., Rutgers,  Rhode Is.,Wright St.,   < TOP 50  OUT of for now >> Notre Dame,    Syracuse,  Boise, St.Louis, Xavier, Arizona St., DePaul, Providence, Purdue, Oklahoma, Harvard, Nevada, Colorado St., Indiana St.,  Loyola- Chic, Duquesne, Tennessee, NC St., East Tenn. St., Furman  ( < 70th ranked)

Will make changes after today.....
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Posted: #177
1-0 so far ..... +3 U

4pm games:

TTech     -2.5   1x ....Double Up game if lose
Penn St. -6      2x ....Double Up game if lose .....Nittany Lions are way better statistically and on a roll....great home team and Minny seems tired with very tough schedule

BOL

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Posted: #178
Double Up cover for TTech is South Dakota St. Jackrabbits -7.5  

2x play if TTECH does not cover
1x play Double up in effect if TTech covers
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Posted: #179
Penn St -6 D-Up cover will be Duke -7.5   4x if Penn St. does not cover -6

Play Duke -7.5 2x if Penn St. covers.....Double Up in effect
This game should not be close despite the fact Cole Anthony is back...but Brandon Marshall is out and UNC does not have the horses to contend with a motivated rival opponent....Duke will negate Anthony and force someone else to step up....Tre Jones will make sure of it if needed!!
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Posted: #180
3 - 1 - 1  (+3 U)....did not play Duke as a D-UP ....lost the 2 Unit play as only play.....mulling a double up on it for 4 Units shortly
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Posted: #181
BYU  -9.5   4x .....to finish Duke loss.....they will stomp SF with their defense.....BYU is #3 FG and #1 3 pt team in the land. This should be an easy cover for the home team!
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Posted: #182
Other Plays:

Pacific -3  1x ....revenge game?? naw....Pacific won on the road with defense and will win at home with the same!

St. Mary's +5.5    2x ....Zags have been ripe for an upset for a while and St. Mary's is built to beat them.....Tillie being Questionable really helps! This line is traditionally -7 to -5 for the Zags on the road and I feel STM's might have their best chance to cover this time given the circumstances.

Ducks -3  3x .....big rivalry and I like this Ducks team on the road with some time off to be on point ....literally with Pritchard leading the way
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Posted: #183
Good/Great Day Saturday:

Kansas, Michigan, Rhode Is. , FSU, Kentucky, South Carolina, Furman, Oklahoma (big scalp!) , Purdue, Seton Hall , N. Iowa, Louisville, Texas Tech, E. Tenn St., Liberty, Iowa, Creighton, Colorado, Nevada, Wright St., Xavier, San Diego St. , Mississippi St., BYU , Gonzaga smokeshow!!, Utah St., Arizona St.,

Meh!

Auburn, LSU, Richmond, Dayton, Penn St.,  Baylor (not very impressive shooting from FT),  Duke (they look horrible!!!...not a #1 seed), Syracuse, 

Dropping after Saturday:

Sparty, DePaul, SMU, Florida, WVU, Indiana, Villanova,, Duquesne,   Arkansas, Memphis, Harvard, Stanford, Virginia, Providence, Indiana St., St. Mary's, Boise, USC, Oregon, Arizona,
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Posted: #184
 4 - 4 - 1  (+1 Unit)......MEH!! 
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Posted: #185
 #1 Gonzaga
-----------------------------------------------------
#2 - San Diego St. 
#3 - Baylor
#4 - Kansas
#5 - Louisville
-----------------------------------------------------
#6 - Dayton
#7 - Kentucky
#8 - Duke
#9 - Texas Tech
#10- Penn St.

Poised for T- 10:  
11. FSU   12. WVU  13. Creighton 14. Maryland 
15. Colorado  16. Seton Hall 17. Auburn 18. Wichita 19. BYU          20. Houston

TOP 25 >  Villanova, Butler, Illinois, Oregon, LSU, 
  
>>> OUT OF TOP 25 >N. Iowa, Mississippi St, Cinci.,  Utah St.,   Marquette,  Arizona,  Arkansas, Michigan St., Iowa, Memphis, Michigan, S. Carolina, St. Mary's, Virginia, SMU,  Rhode Is., Liberty, Stanford, Tulsa,  Florida,  VCU, Ohio St., Oklahoma,  Richmond, Wright St.,  < TOP 50  OUT of for now >>  Xavier, Indiana, Rutgers, Notre Dame,  Purdue, Arizona St., Syracuse,   St.Louis,  Nevada,  Colorado St., Furman, East Tenn. St.,  Loyola- Chic, Tennessee, S.F. Austin,  NC St., Providence, Boise,( < 68th ranked)
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Posted: #186
NCAAB TOURNEY PREP:  Top 70 rated teams only

TOP Rated NEUTRAL Site Teams     TOP Rated ROAD Ratings
1. San Diego                                          1. Gonzaga
2. Kansas                                               2. Kansas
3. Duke         3. Baylor
4. Michigan                                             4. Duke
5. Dayton                                                5. Louisville
6. West Virginia        6. San Diego St.
7. Maryland        7. Kentucky
8. BYU         8. Seton Hall
9. Auburn         9. Florida St.
10. Wichita       10. Syracuse
11. Butler                                               11. Dayton
12. Penn St.       12. Penn St.
13. Florida       13. Creighton
14. Ohio St.       14. Illinois
15. Houston       15. Houston
16. Tennessee                                       16. Colorado
17. Baylor                                              17. Maryland
18. Seton Hall                                        18. N. Iowa
19. St. Mary's                                         19. Michigan St.
20. Oregon        20. Wichita
21. Iowa        21. Rhode Is.
22. Marquette        22. Mississippi St.
23. Villanova        23. Ohio St.
24. Stanford        24. Butler
25. Colorado        25. Villanova
26. Liberty        26. USC
27. Florida St.        27. South Carolina
28. Nevada        28. Arizona
29. St. Louis        29. LSU
30. Texas Tech        30. Texas Tech

Over - Rated:        Over- Rated:
-GONZAGA! -62nd                                 -West Virginia 38th
-Creighton    -89th                                  - Auburn        64th
-Illinois      -153rd        - BYU            41st
-Cinci            -139th                               - Oregon        67th
       - Cinci           46th

Bubble Teams: Bubble Teams:
Georgetown - 12th 
Yale             -  20th
UCONN      -  22nd                             
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Posted: #187
Road Dominance Stats ......Teams that overpower other Top 100 ranked teams while on the road....
Road win over a Top 100 ranked team by 20 pts or more = 6 pts 
Road win over Top 100 by 10-20 pts = 3pts

1. San Diego St.  33 pts
2. Kansas  21
3. N. Iowa 21
4. Gonzaga 18
5th -  11th 12
Auburn, Dayton, Penn St., Houston, Duke, USC, Florida St.

12th - 22nd 9
Florida, Toledo, Wichita, St. Mary's, Louisville, Colorado St., Iowa,
South Carolina, Baylor, Creighton, Tennessee

23rd - 38th 6
Maryland, Wisconsin, Utah St., Villanova, Colorado, Oklahoma, Sparty, TTech, Kent St., Illinois, WVU, USC, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Butler, Stanford

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Posted: #188
Final Key Stats for strong showing in NCAAB Tourney coming up in the coming days.....

- Free Throw Ranking
-Offensive Rebounding
-Rebounding Average (Off + Def)
-3 Pt shooting rank
- team defense rank.
-strength of schedule ranking

From all this, there is usually a formula to find a team that should land in the Final 8 and maybe win it all. Last year, I narrowed down TTech in the Top 3 and standing out in a lot of stats.....but of course, got sprinkles in my eyes siding with coaching over substance. Not ever again going forward! Maybe in the final game...
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Posted: #189
Upset night tomorrow......some warning signs from two top teams playing on Monday.

FSU  +8.5  2x 
               0.5x moneyline

Texas +6.5 1x
              0.5x moneyline
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Posted: #190

I really thank you for sharing Last. You really have me thinking and I should be looking into stats a lot more. I really enjoy sports and to get a bit of an edge always help. new_jaw_drop

 
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Posted: #191
Quote Originally Posted by Skydome:

I really thank you for sharing Last. You really have me thinking and I should be looking into stats a lot more. I really enjoy sports and to get a bit of an edge always help. new_jaw_drop


Its fun....I am a stats nerd...can't deny that. But it really pays off in the month of March and beginning of April when the season ends in all types of tourneys. 

Cheers.....stay tuned....have more analysis coming when I have down time and then my overall Underdogs list and re-evaluated Top 25 which will look much different than my betting TOP 25.
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Posted: #192
Tuesday:

Notre Dame +5  2x ....4 senior players will find a way to keep it close and maybe win as they are building their Tourney resume right now and are doing their usual late season surge and win streak...their coach Brey is one of the best and his motivation alone is worth a couple of points

Kansas St. -3  1x ...recent home games have been real good for them and I expect a good game vs the Cowboys

Illinois +1.5  2x ....not sure why Vegas is fading the home team who are excellent and have no injury issues....plus add the fact that Sparty is brutal on the road and unmotivated if you watch them (1-6 ATS!!)

LSU  -11  4x .....Missouri have lost to home teams by over 12 pts in every situation in their last 10 and even higher.....LSU is a major home scorer and they will not be able to keep up!!






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Posted: #193
Cinci/Memphis Under 139  3x ....lots of talent on both teams is wonky or going to have to sit out this game

FIU  +9 1x ...this game will be a beauty....upset is possible

Beavers -5.5..2x ....should be a home beatdown

Cali +9 5x ....very tough at home and now an over rated Zona team is gonna win on the road when they have  been life and death to do so all season?? Thank you Vegas!!


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Posted: #194

Hi L2T, Do you think Ore St beating Ore their last game will make them flat for this one? Thanks!

 
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Posted: #195
Quote Originally Posted by lonfident:

Hi L2T, Do you think Ore St beating Ore their last game will make them flat for this one? Thanks!


No....they need the wins for NCAAB invite
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Posted: #196
FIU over USM -2   3x on Saturday....complete mismatch
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Posted: #197
Southern Illinois +1   2x ....super tough to beat at home!!

Bowling Green +6.5...1x ...most games are real tight

Alabama  -2.5  1x ....super tough and high scoring at home...good chance for a scalp of a ranked team

Notre Dame +12.5  3x ....4 starters are Senior vs most starters on Duke are freshmen/sophmores.....

Baylor -5.5  2x ....yummy line for the home team vs a WVU team that SHOULD HAVE beaten Kansas at home and now are on the road vs at team that is as good or better than Kansas

William+ Mary -3 vs Delaware  1x

Richmond -1.5 vs VCU  2x

TCU -3   1x

S. Carolina -4  1x

UCLA -3   2x

Utah St. -5  1x

Stanford +4.5  1x

NICE LINES ON SATURDAY 


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Posted: #198
6 - 3  Even right now....trending....thats the risk you take pressing on some plays 
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Posted: #199
Gonna finish 8 - 5  +1 U on the day....meh
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Posted: #200
Monday:

NCAT -1.5  2x
Xavier -1.5  1x
UNC    +4    1x


Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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