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Last2thirst Conference Play and March to Madness Season

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Posted: #201

GOOD LUCK L2t

 
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Posted: #202
Quote Originally Posted by Skydome:

GOOD LUCK L2t


U2 bud ....got some re-rankings almost ready from a very interesting week! 
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Posted: #203

UPDATED: Road Dominance Stats ......Teams that overpower other Top 100 ranked teams while on the road....Road win over a Top 100 ranked team by 20 pts or more = 6 pts / Road win over Top 100 by 10-20 pts = 3pts

 
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Posted: #204

1. San Diego St. 36 pts

2. Kansas 21

3. N. Iowa 21

4. Gonzaga 18

5th Penn St. 15

 

6th -16th 12

Auburn, Dayton, Houston, Duke, USC, Florida St., South Carolina, Wichita, Colorado, Villanova

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Posted: #205

17th - 25th 9

Florida, Toledo, St. Mary's, Louisville, Colorado St., Iowa,

 Baylor, Creighton, Tennessee


 26th - 39th 6

Maryland, Wisconsin, Utah St., Oklahoma, Sparty, TTech, Kent St., Illinois, WVU, USC, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Butler, Stanford


Something to know going into the tourneys.....does the road matter in a big game? For some of these, take points and ML

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Posted: #206

MY TOP 10 > most consistent teams and dominating

#1 San Diego St. 25-0 ...still dominating AND on the road!

-----------------------------------------------------

#2 - Kansas ....on a roll big time

#3 - Baylor ...very steady

#4 - Gonzaga….lack of good competition will hurt them this month and at tourney likely

#5 - Dayton …. are they a Top Seed? Recent results say no

-----------------------------------------------------

#6 - Duke 

#7 - Kentucky

#8 - Penn St. (many people sleeping on this team!!)

#9 - FSU

#10- Creighton (many people sleeping on this team!!)
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Posted: #207

Poised for T- 10:  

11. Texas Tech

12. Maryland

13. Wichita

14. Louisville

15. BYU

16. WVU

17. Villanova

18. Colorado

19. Oregon

20. Houston

TOP 25 >  Auburn, Seton Hall, USC, Arizona, Utah St.
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Posted: #208

 >>> OUT OF TOP 25 > but top 40 team that should make NCAA Tourney

Cinci, Michigan,Butler,N. Iowa,,LSU

Marquette, S. Carolina,Virginia, Illinois,SMU

St. Mary’s,Michigan St.,Ohio St.,Florida,Mississippi St.

Going to have to turn it up / win Conference to secure Tourney:

Tulsa, Richmond, Wright St., Liberty,Iowa,Rhode Is.,Oklahoma,Arizona St.,Arkansas,Memphis,

Out of my Top 50 :

St. Louis,Xavier, Rutgers,Indiana,Notre Dame,Mississippi (NR),Loyola-Chicago, Nevada,Furman,East Tenn. St.,Colorado St.,Tennesee,Clemson (NR),Providence,S.F. Austin,  ,NC St, Syracuse,Bradley (NR),Boise,Wisconsin (NR),Missouri St. (NR),Akron (NR),Kent St. (NR)
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Posted: #209

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #210
Monday:

NCAT -1.5  2x
Xavier -1.5  1x
UNC    +4    1x

3-0 

I played Kansas -15.5 as well but did not post....Iowa St. is missing their outstanding point guard and Jayhawks are on a major roll
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Posted: #211
Latest thing I am tracking > Lineups - oldest starters (total yrs)

I have about 20 more teams to analyze.....partial results:
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Posted: #212
OLDEST TEAMS (should do well in conference/tourney)

E.Tenn > J/ SR/ SR/ J/ SR = 18 years
Auburn > FR/ SR/ SR/ SR/ SR = 17 years

Ariz.St.> J/ J/ SR/ J/ SR = 17 years

S.DiegoSt.> SR/ J/ J/ J/ SR = 17 years


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Posted: #213
Tulsa > J/ J/ J/ J/ SR = 16 years
Dayton > J/ J/ SO/ SR/ SR = 16 years
Louisville.> SR/ SR/ J/ SR/ FR = 16 years
Butler > J/ J/ SR/ SR/ SO = 16 years
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Posted: #214

Youngest Teams in the Top 50

Mem > FR/FR/FR/SO/FR      =  6 years

Duke > FR/ FR/ SO/ FR/ J =  8 years

Wichita > SO/ SO /SR/ FR/ FR = 10 years

Villanova > J/FR/FR/J/SO = 10 years

Kentucky > SO/ FR/ SO/ SO/ J = 10 years
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Penn St -6.5   2x ....both teams missing key guards but it never slowed down Penn St. the last game and Illinois is gasping right now and have to travel to face the #1 Big Ten team in my eyes

Creighton +3  1x

VCU  +3.5 ...1x ....this game has a feel of desperation for a sliding VCU team who is reallly, really tough at home....they are desperate to gain an NCAA scalp for the tourney....thats my angle

Oklahoma +3.5 1x ...same as above

Dayton/Penn St/ Florida parlay   2x ....pays 3x
Baylor /  "   / "                 parlay   2x ....pays 3x

Colorado St. +1   1x ....been a cover machine for me
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Posted: #216
3 Plays > starting to press on plays > min play now is 2 U ($200)

N. Iowa  -3   2x....like Indiana St. at home but not against teams that can score or know how to shut down/defend the 3pt shot like NIOWA and Missouri St. last game

Gonzaga -17 2x ....was almost embarrassed by SF on the road but pulled it out in the 2nd half......don't think SF has the same adrenaline here and get beat down by a lot!!

USC +9.5  4x ....one of my dark horses and so is Colorado this year so home court is big for Colorado but if on a neutral site, I believe these teams are close to a coin flip. I think Colorado wins by 6-8 pts but NOT BY 10!! I have Colorado and USC rated pretty close to each other in my ratings
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Posted: #217

Great to see you back L2t. Great information. Already took Colorado as a pick but will use your other two

 
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Posted: #218
Quote Originally Posted by Skydome:

Great to see you back L2t. Great information. Already took Colorado as a pick but will use your other two


Unfortunately, Indiana St. could not miss a 3 pt shot in the first half!!! Ughhhhh

Good start for USC....hope we get Zaga 
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Posted: #219
Saturday:

Really looking forward to this Finals type game.....strong line to fade one of my fave teams...

Baylor is missing maybe a key guard and their stats pale a little when compared to Kansas except at the FT line. Age/experience is the same...coaching as well is equal....just feel Kansas is playing unreal on the road and will control the paint while Baylor might have weakened guard play with a wonky guard and other sub to lean on. 

Kansas +2  2x

Houston -2.5 2x ....Memphis is too young and experience and talent with Houston will win them the 2nd half if need be

Michigan +2.5  2x ....knocked off an undefeated home team the other game and with Ivers in the lineup, it cohesively completes their team into a Top 8 threat

Texas AM  +5 2x ...another team that has entered my radar like Ole Miss did one month ago as a late blooming/developing team with the coaching effect.....should win outright the way they have been playing lately

Colorado -10.5  2x ....USC was a disciplined team who could trade blows with Colorado at home....UCLA is not and they got their road win....asking them to play like they did at Utah the second game in a row on the road and AT HIGHER ELEVATION....there is no way will they be as sharp with Colorado having their players sleeping in their own beds the whole week playing 2 home games in a row

Rhode Island +2.5  4x ....I'm sorry, name me a good team that Davidson has beat this year??? Essentially, Vegas says they will win by 2 baskets here .....NO

Kentucky -5  2x ....Florida is not so good on the road, Kentucky plays to their fans so I am surprised by this line frankly....should be -7 or higher

Ole Miss -2.5  4x ....they are on the cusp of a NCAAB Tourney bid with this amazing run and I like how they can play lockdown defense to halt runs in games and keep going themselves....Bama has shown some lack of discipline on the road

Arizona -5  2x ....two tough games in a row on the road for Ducks and Zona has the same scenario as Colorado above at home and a good opportunity to draw blood from a Conference rival

BYU  +4.5  2x ....last shot type of game for BYU but Zags could come out flat with high BYU motivation here and the Cougars shooting process keeps Zags at bay until the final minute and thats where the 5 pt buffer helps

SO MANY GOOD LINES!! Caution....I have not checked injuries but did so thoroughly a week ago
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Posted: #220
Tremendous work you do
 
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Posted: #221
In my Top 55, Who has the most Seniors and Juniors as starters? (Analysis now complete)

East Tenn = all 5 !
San Diego St. = all 5
Arizona St. = all 5
Tulsa = all 5

4 of 5 = Auburn, Seton Hall, Butler, Louisville, Dayton, Virginia,
Marquette, Northern Iowa, Liberty, New Mexico St.

Least experienced:

Memphis = 0 seniors/juniors
Duke  = 1 junior
Kentucky = 1 junior
Wichita = 1 senior
Villanova = 2 juniors
Stanford = 2 juniors



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Posted: #222
Best Offensive Rebounding teams + Team Defense!!!  
(What makes  a great team is their ability to chase down shots but also have a system in place like the Raptors used to win NBA title... where players can get back or pick up their man immediately. Just having good Offensive rebounding is not enough.....see N. Carolina this year!!)

Strongest Rating:
1. Baylor 10
2. WVU 10
3. Duke 9
4. Houston 9
5. FSU 8.5
6. Colorado 8.5
7. Wichita 8
8. Gonzaga 8
9. Kansas 7.5
10. Sparty 7.5

7 - rating > Rhode Is., Cinci.
6.5 rating > Maryland, Arizona, Illinois
6 rating > Memphis, USC, Louisville, 
5.5 rating > S. Carolina, Auburn, 

5 rated > Virginia, Stanford, Ohio St., Kentucky, LSU, Miss St. 


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Posted: #223
Last two combos to analyze before NCAAB tourney in time:

Defensive rebounds + team officiency rating

FT % and Shooting %


OVERALL ratings to follow after with Senior/Junior counts and overall years of experience
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Posted: #224

Good Luck L2t. Great Work

 
 
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Posted: #225
Not sure how I missed this one last night....

Give me California +9  4x .....Wash has lost 9 in a row and Cal has been playing a lot of close games and beat WSU on the road their last game.
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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