A whole new animal starts today. Conference betting requires a lot of DD and upsets are more common that in non-Conference play. Make less plays and bet more when you really think you have a spot such as a home dog! Road upsets happen as well.....
Record so far:
SEASON: 69 - 57 - 2 (+29 Units)
Starting with $3000
I Unit = $60
Juice avg. on sides = -115
I Unit win = $53/ each Unit loss = $60
To make money at 1 UNIT per play, need to go 116-100 or 53.7% success rate
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
A whole new animal starts today. Conference betting requires a lot of DD and upsets are more common that in non-Conference play. Make less plays and bet more when you really think you have a spot such as a home dog! Road upsets happen as well.....
Record so far:
SEASON: 69 - 57 - 2 (+29 Units)
Starting with $3000
I Unit = $60
Juice avg. on sides = -115
I Unit win = $53/ each Unit loss = $60
To make money at 1 UNIT per play, need to go 116-100 or 53.7% success rate
My earliest impressions to start the season after about 5 games....I will post in the next few days my power rankings and teams to watch that offer value when a home dog or on the road....keeping games tight most of the time. Of course, use the info as a guide and not the rule....
10+ Teams I Am Impressed With Early:
Duke - Barrett is unreal already as a rookie and stronger as an ox/ how many games will they score over 100pts? (Ov/Under at 18 games !)
Auburn- win by 50 and then go beat a ranked team by 22 who had an excellent first game themselves
5 obscure mid or lower-tier teams? Played some good teams
Missouri St. 3-0
South Dak. St. 3-0
San Francisco 2-0 crushing teams
Darmouth 2-1 ....played well and scoring
San Diego 2-0...including 1 road upset
Good programs and winning by a lot:
Nebraska
Ohio St.
NC. St.
Rutgers
Texas Tech
Pittsburgh
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
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My earliest impressions to start the season after about 5 games....I will post in the next few days my power rankings and teams to watch that offer value when a home dog or on the road....keeping games tight most of the time. Of course, use the info as a guide and not the rule....
10+ Teams I Am Impressed With Early:
Duke - Barrett is unreal already as a rookie and stronger as an ox/ how many games will they score over 100pts? (Ov/Under at 18 games !)
Auburn- win by 50 and then go beat a ranked team by 22 who had an excellent first game themselves
5 obscure mid or lower-tier teams? Played some good teams
Kansas St. -2 (2x) ...very tough home court vs a Shaka Smart team who are gritty but won't outshoot the home team on one of my fave home courts to take.....expect the home team to get foul calls from aggressive Smart presses
Texas Tech -4 (2x)....purely the best defense in college ball and have the athletes to hang with any team....had Duke on the ropes....it says a lot if I am pressing on a road fave in a normally tough home court in West Virginia
Oklahoma +8.5 (1x)....yes Kansas can blow them away if Okla is not shooting but we have not seen that yet....really like this Sooner team and Kansas is on my fade radar
Iowa St. -4 (0.5x) ...offensively better and well coached but Cowboys home court can be super tough even in an off year....trying to figure out what the Cowboys are....ISU is solid all around...will tread lightly though
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
0
Conference Plays- Wed Jan 2
Kansas St. -2 (2x) ...very tough home court vs a Shaka Smart team who are gritty but won't outshoot the home team on one of my fave home courts to take.....expect the home team to get foul calls from aggressive Smart presses
Texas Tech -4 (2x)....purely the best defense in college ball and have the athletes to hang with any team....had Duke on the ropes....it says a lot if I am pressing on a road fave in a normally tough home court in West Virginia
Oklahoma +8.5 (1x)....yes Kansas can blow them away if Okla is not shooting but we have not seen that yet....really like this Sooner team and Kansas is on my fade radar
Iowa St. -4 (0.5x) ...offensively better and well coached but Cowboys home court can be super tough even in an off year....trying to figure out what the Cowboys are....ISU is solid all around...will tread lightly though
NC State -2.5 (5 Units)....this team will feature in my Top 20 power rankings and now I go against a Miami team that is statistically inferior and 2-8 ATS in their last 10? When NCstate is 7-3?
Wow, sign me up. I would have expected a line of -5.5 to -6.5 but hey, Vegas is good as evidenced by the TTech line last night (lost by a half pt )
I will continue to look for spots like this and press.....
Miami Rebounding rank: Off= 228 Def = 173
Miami Free Throw and 3 pt: FT= 124 3PT= 121
NCSTATE ranks: 48th / 3rd / 222nd / 3rd......so what is NCSTATE going to do off a defensive rebound?....pushing it up the floor for a uncontested pull-up 3pt and if they miss, their rebounding is excellent!!
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
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Thursday: Power play!
NC State -2.5 (5 Units)....this team will feature in my Top 20 power rankings and now I go against a Miami team that is statistically inferior and 2-8 ATS in their last 10? When NCstate is 7-3?
Wow, sign me up. I would have expected a line of -5.5 to -6.5 but hey, Vegas is good as evidenced by the TTech line last night (lost by a half pt )
I will continue to look for spots like this and press.....
Miami Rebounding rank: Off= 228 Def = 173
Miami Free Throw and 3 pt: FT= 124 3PT= 121
NCSTATE ranks: 48th / 3rd / 222nd / 3rd......so what is NCSTATE going to do off a defensive rebound?....pushing it up the floor for a uncontested pull-up 3pt and if they miss, their rebounding is excellent!!
Thursday: Power play!NC State -2.5 (5 Units) ....this team will feature in my Top 20 power rankings and now I go against a Miami team that is statistically inferior and 2-8 ATS in their last 10? When NCstate is 7-3?Wow, sign me up. I would have expected a line of -5.5 to -6.5 but hey, Vegas is good as evidenced by the TTech line last night (lost by a half pt )I will continue to look for spots like this and press.....Miami Rebounding rank: Off= 228 Def = 173Miami Free Throw and 3 pt: FT= 124 3PT= 121NCSTATE ranks: 48th / 3rd / 222nd / 3rd......so what is NCSTATE going to do off a defensive rebound?....pushing it up the floor for a uncontested pull-up 3pt and if they miss, their rebounding is excellent!!
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ha already bet it!
glad we are on the same page
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Thursday: Power play!NC State -2.5 (5 Units) ....this team will feature in my Top 20 power rankings and now I go against a Miami team that is statistically inferior and 2-8 ATS in their last 10? When NCstate is 7-3?Wow, sign me up. I would have expected a line of -5.5 to -6.5 but hey, Vegas is good as evidenced by the TTech line last night (lost by a half pt )I will continue to look for spots like this and press.....Miami Rebounding rank: Off= 228 Def = 173Miami Free Throw and 3 pt: FT= 124 3PT= 121NCSTATE ranks: 48th / 3rd / 222nd / 3rd......so what is NCSTATE going to do off a defensive rebound?....pushing it up the floor for a uncontested pull-up 3pt and if they miss, their rebounding is excellent!!
Delaware +1.5 (3 Units) Why is the home team a dog here when WM keeps getting blown out on the road......Del has played their last 3 of 4 on the road....now have homecooking and are better shooters, defenders and rebounders? They are 9-4 and got to within 6 points @Maryland which is hard to do....Nebraska lost last night by 2 !.....also revenge for last yr
CWM is 6-8
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
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Play#2
Delaware +1.5 (3 Units) Why is the home team a dog here when WM keeps getting blown out on the road......Del has played their last 3 of 4 on the road....now have homecooking and are better shooters, defenders and rebounders? They are 9-4 and got to within 6 points @Maryland which is hard to do....Nebraska lost last night by 2 !.....also revenge for last yr
Old Dominion -7.5 (1.5x) Yes they have one player questionable who scores but this team is far from being a one player team....ranked 4th vs FG on defense and Marshall is ranked in the 200's.....OD is a tough home court and Marshall has lost 5 of last 7 and when they lose....its by 10-20 pts
OD is a way better FT and Rebounding team as well....team ball keeps them ahead the whole game
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
0
Old Dominion -7.5 (1.5x) Yes they have one player questionable who scores but this team is far from being a one player team....ranked 4th vs FG on defense and Marshall is ranked in the 200's.....OD is a tough home court and Marshall has lost 5 of last 7 and when they lose....its by 10-20 pts
OD is a way better FT and Rebounding team as well....team ball keeps them ahead the whole game
Northern Kentucky -4 (1x)...I will take the bait gladly....how will an Oakland team respond at home with the worst defense maybe in all of college and they don't rebound well vs a team like NK who have a good offense....are used to winning and have an amazing defense? Yes Oakland can shoot, but was that vs excellent defenders who are used to competing to win and have proven thus far?
I would bet more but something is fishy with this line
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
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Northern Kentucky -4 (1x)...I will take the bait gladly....how will an Oakland team respond at home with the worst defense maybe in all of college and they don't rebound well vs a team like NK who have a good offense....are used to winning and have an amazing defense? Yes Oakland can shoot, but was that vs excellent defenders who are used to competing to win and have proven thus far?
I would bet more but something is fishy with this line
Samford +9.5 (1x) ....so many good lines tonight and this one is too high. These teams are evenly matched and yes E.Tenn beating Furman was impressive but Furman is in a bit of a tailspin right now after an amazing start......Samford played Tenn who I have rated in my top 5 best teams.....to within 13 pts on the rode....E.Tenn is not even close to Tennessee (well geographically, maybe)
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
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Samford +9.5 (1x) ....so many good lines tonight and this one is too high. These teams are evenly matched and yes E.Tenn beating Furman was impressive but Furman is in a bit of a tailspin right now after an amazing start......Samford played Tenn who I have rated in my top 5 best teams.....to within 13 pts on the rode....E.Tenn is not even close to Tennessee (well geographically, maybe)
North Texas -4.5 (1x) ...should be a close game but I see the home team pulling away at the end due to being strong statistically, at home and healthy. Lou Tech has 2 guards down and one of them is a decent backup? point guard.....that spells trouble in the second half if UNT runs them all over the place in a half court set that rotates across the perimeter
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
0
North Texas -4.5 (1x) ...should be a close game but I see the home team pulling away at the end due to being strong statistically, at home and healthy. Lou Tech has 2 guards down and one of them is a decent backup? point guard.....that spells trouble in the second half if UNT runs them all over the place in a half court set that rotates across the perimeter
Just an FYI....Louisiana Tech's injured players have been out for more then a month.....Huge Mean Green fan here.....should be a tight game....hope they pull through for you
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Just an FYI....Louisiana Tech's injured players have been out for more then a month.....Huge Mean Green fan here.....should be a tight game....hope they pull through for you
Have bet already more than I liked.....strong leans in the late games
Murray St -13.5
E. Illinois -3.5.....look at road teams road record ATS....line coming down ....huh?
Weber St -13....strong home court and they love running up scores over the years on their home court
San Fran -2 ....statement game....want to be seen as #2 in their conference behind Zags....homecourt and talent win over...still might play this for 2 Units if I get NCstate looking like a cover
Santa Clara +6.5....tough home court even when they are bad and this year they have a team....have a habit of getting up for good teams and San Diego is real good
BOL tonight ....hope this helps if looking for a play later
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
0
Have bet already more than I liked.....strong leans in the late games
Murray St -13.5
E. Illinois -3.5.....look at road teams road record ATS....line coming down ....huh?
Weber St -13....strong home court and they love running up scores over the years on their home court
San Fran -2 ....statement game....want to be seen as #2 in their conference behind Zags....homecourt and talent win over...still might play this for 2 Units if I get NCstate looking like a cover
Santa Clara +6.5....tough home court even when they are bad and this year they have a team....have a habit of getting up for good teams and San Diego is real good
BOL tonight ....hope this helps if looking for a play later
Just an FYI....Louisiana Tech's injured players have been out for more then a month.....Huge Mean Green fan here.....should be a tight game....hope they pull through for you
I saw that....but Derrick Jean is recent and he is the backup PG....might be needed to play more as a result of other guards out long term. .....
Hope the Mean Green get it ...thanks for the info
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
0
Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck66:
Just an FYI....Louisiana Tech's injured players have been out for more then a month.....Huge Mean Green fan here.....should be a tight game....hope they pull through for you
I saw that....but Derrick Jean is recent and he is the backup PG....might be needed to play more as a result of other guards out long term. .....
I was coming to tell you i took them too but it looks like you are already on them. I also looked at north texas but i am just rolling with Old Dominion and NC State tonight
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Old Dominion -7.5 (1.5x) Yes they have one player questionable who scores but this team is far from being a one player team....ranked 4th vs FG on defense and Marshall is ranked in the 200's.....OD is a tough home court and Marshall has lost 5 of last 7 and when they lose....its by 10-20 pts OD is a way better FT and Rebounding team as well....team ball keeps them ahead the whole game
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I was coming to tell you i took them too but it looks like you are already on them. I also looked at north texas but i am just rolling with Old Dominion and NC State tonight
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Old Dominion -7.5 (1.5x) Yes they have one player questionable who scores but this team is far from being a one player team....ranked 4th vs FG on defense and Marshall is ranked in the 200's.....OD is a tough home court and Marshall has lost 5 of last 7 and when they lose....its by 10-20 pts OD is a way better FT and Rebounding team as well....team ball keeps them ahead the whole game
Bink....lets hope great minds think a like....I look pretty foolish on here some days but I have a good feeling about pressing on those two tonight....the DD tells my gut to do so tonight
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
0
Quote Originally Posted by binka34:
Bink....lets hope great minds think a like....I look pretty foolish on here some days but I have a good feeling about pressing on those two tonight....the DD tells my gut to do so tonight
I'll take the split considering I put more on NC State
nicely done and it looks like North Texas is good
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Quote Originally Posted by binka34:
Bink....lets hope great minds think a like....I look pretty foolish on here some days but I have a good feeling about pressing on those two tonight....the DD tells my gut to do so tonight
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I'll take the split considering I put more on NC State
nicely done and it looks like North Texas is good
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Quote Originally Posted by binka34:
Bink....lets hope great minds think a like....I look pretty foolish on here some days but I have a good feeling about pressing on those two tonight....the DD tells my gut to do so tonight
SEASON NOW: 76 - 62 - 2 (+38 Units)....continue to hit more big plays than I don't...will have to keep this in mind in Conference Play
One Reality With Conference Play To Remember:
-as I watched Miami dominate most of the first half of my big play, I do recall that we should keep in mind that when a ranked team is a road fave coming into a conference building, they often run into a super-motivated team and a jacked up crowd because that is a notch on their belts if they win!
Rule: -unless you feel there is a major line mistake from Vegas, take 1st half Home team in this situation if you feel its a possibility and go full game your pick....its a good hedge that often hits
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
0
Results:
NC State -2.5 (5 Units)
Delaware +1.5 (3 Units)
Old Dominion -7.5 (1.5x)
Northern Kentucky -4 (1x)
Samford +9.5 (1x)
North Texas -4.5 (1x)
NEW....San Fran -2 (3 Units) is on now
Record tonight = 4 - 3 (+ 8.5 Units)
SEASON NOW: 76 - 62 - 2 (+38 Units)....continue to hit more big plays than I don't...will have to keep this in mind in Conference Play
One Reality With Conference Play To Remember:
-as I watched Miami dominate most of the first half of my big play, I do recall that we should keep in mind that when a ranked team is a road fave coming into a conference building, they often run into a super-motivated team and a jacked up crowd because that is a notch on their belts if they win!
Rule: -unless you feel there is a major line mistake from Vegas, take 1st half Home team in this situation if you feel its a possibility and go full game your pick....its a good hedge that often hits
Santa Clara +6.5 should WIN....up by 14 pts with 10 min to go!
Shoulda played but I have seen over-exuberant nights like tonight turn my account from +28 Units to be cut in half or less ......so I am glad for the big ones coming through
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
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Non play Suggestions...how did they do?
Murray St -13.5 WIN
E. Illinois -3.5 WIN
Weber St -13 WIN
Santa Clara +6.5 should WIN....up by 14 pts with 10 min to go!
Shoulda played but I have seen over-exuberant nights like tonight turn my account from +28 Units to be cut in half or less ......so I am glad for the big ones coming through
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