Last2thirst Conference /Tourney Picks

WakeForest  +7.5   (1x).... Double up play......playing a rival and they know this gym sightlines for their 3-ball shooting so I expect WF to keep in close with this ability along with their rebounding......GT can play strong defense but WF has the rebounding edge.

Both teams played Tenn on the road....GTech result was better but I liked how WF pressed Tenn for first half but then could not hit 3-ball

Notre Dame  +1.5          (1x) ....not a good play assuming one of my over-rated teams above would be another....layoff next time!

( Up game   for 4 Units)....taking Iowa St. -1 

.....to cover ND/UMBC.....lose this, and it will by my first Double or Triple loss all year ....costing a heft 7 Units for playing

Notre Dame  +1.5          (1x) ....not a good play assuming one of my over-rated teams above would be another....layoff next time!

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(D Up game   for 2 Units to cover WF)....taking Iowa St. -1 

Got on them at a pick 2nd half 5 minutes in their up 15-4 Fordham has scored 20 points in 20 minutes of game time.

Don't sleep on VCU their damn good. .  

Hofstra   -4.5  (1x) D-Up game.....just think they have too much going for them with the best player on the floor, potent offense, good rebounding/FT and decent defense.....NE can be a cagey team with a good offense but they will likely be swiss cheese in this game with their leaky defense

TCU.....-7  (1X)...no DUP.....tough homecourt and get to play a defensive minded Baylor team who is improving on offense but TCU normally shreds middling teams at home...

Citadel  +12   (0.5x) ....can flat out shoot and Furman has not been themselves lately...Citadel will give more opposition than Mercer did

UCLA  -13.5   (0.5x) ...think its a beatdown from a headscratching team with a lot of talent vs a rebuilding Cal team

Ohhh....I like them a lot....have had a tough schedule....make nothing but $$....look at my ratings on the second page.. I wished I would have played them....gonna let them go for a while but I will be back on them especially when they go on the road 

Suckeyes couldn't hang with Sparty sans Langford. Wish I would not have scratched that Large off the list. 

What I have seen so far:

Roy skinned them young Panthers alive. Pitt's sos 340.

The Nutty Professors Orange Amoeba Mombo Combo Zone was in full effect.

I forgot to play Zona-Utah over even though I had it wrote down. It's been like sortin' Wildcats thru a barbed wire fence here.

Didn't get time to send you my overrated report other than the top 3. Rutgers is #4 on that list. They really struggle to score. They can't hit the Red side of a barn. They are going to have rough sledding on the Big 10 road.

Cavs are scalping the Noles. I scratched it when it went to 9.5-10.Ouch

It's the same every year. Leonard has a whole stable full of great athletes but they just don't play smart and execute poorly at times. At times dumber than a box of rocks. They are playing so bad they may frack up my under.

I took a nasty hook in the mouth on the TT-KSt game.

I can't get the rest of the emojis to scroll down.

Roll Tide Roll.

Wolfpack is laying 15 in the Pit.

Cowboys hung in there like a hair in a biscuit 'till the end with the Sooners. Bedlam!

The 'Ol BM has a bunch of these lines tighter than a mouses ear. Been that way the last couple of weeks. Plenty of data for their algorithms, when they start punching the #'s in from from Conference play it is going to get harder than it has been. The $ will be playing against the top teams because that is where the inflation will be. Have to be Balzout for that.

I don't know if you saw any of my plays or not. Hope to win at least a couple so I can catch WahooS 43%. Lol I haven't even seen all your plays yet. Hope you are rolling.

I know I need TX and ISU. TCU too.

I'm going to take a break for a bit.

Lots have Beavers as their upset play....not me!

Other plays....no DUP

Murray St  -15.5  (1x) ....simply a machine at home and starters were not taxed last game 2 days ago and only played 30 min....still, they won by 31!!!

Seattle   +6.5...(1x) ....sneaky team and get up for big games and in that regions. GC is a big game given their success last year ...but look at GC's stats.....not good in my opinion vs Seattle's

Duke   -14.5   (1x) ....lack of 3 pt on offense and lack of 3pt defense will hurt them here....just thing Zion and RJ driving the ball will create foul trouble all night long.....Duke is chomping at the bit to play after sitting for 2 weeks over Christmas.....expect a monster second half....and just might have to do a Double up if they are not hitting their shots in the first half

Complete hunch love the home team play....time to fade the dog despite better record!!!

Vandy -1.5   (4 Units) .....monster home team....who matches up well with Ole Miss who I think are a bit over rated on the road?

Buying the kool-aid play of the day.....tip of the hat to FunkyRufus

Gonzaga  -26  (2 Units)... Santa Clara happy to get win at home the other day and they are not a good road team but now they play Zags with full arsenal??? Might  be covered at half.....why not more Units....no capping on my part except knowing S.C.!!

SD State....+3....(2x)....yes Boise is a tough place to play but I believe Aztecs are a way better team....pts are the attraction here

COUNT THE CHIPS AFTER......so so day and I am getting a gut feeling I played way too many today

Hofstra   -4.5        (1x) D-Up game     

Citadel  +12        (0.5x)                           

UCLA  -13.5       (0.5x)                           

Tale of the Tape so far today........ 6 - 6 ...its all about the UNITS though...........................................  (+5.5 Units)....takes creativity and balls to make money sometimes....put it out there!

Real deal is neither team has much. Bol 

Name me the last yr the Ducks were defensive?? Long time.....and home court.....nice cocktail for me if you add the refs giving you the calls and the crowd into it....work 3-5 pts

2. UNC win by 25 on the road vs a good Pitt team

3. Gonzaga destroys a decent Santa Clara team by 43

Most regressive.....Top 150 only

2. Kansas gets destroyed by Iowa St. by 17....supporting its over-rated status

TIER #1 - pedigree/style to win  it all

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The Martin brothers combined to go 4-21 from the floor, 1-9 from 3. 

NV was 19-57, 4-22. 

NM won every statistical category. Hit 11 trey bombs. The Lobos led box to wire. It was never close.

Guess it's hard to run the table.

My feature game TX-WV went 4-0. I played a late Grand Slam Parlay on that game. If I would have played it earlier when I made the the 1st Half plays today it would have hit. Lost by another nasty hook. 

Stupid on my part, didn't think it would matter, it did. TX didn't play very well, WV was just worse. Can't really complain since the Horns slid over the hook for the FG cover.

I fracked up a really big day. I was working with a real good list. Scratched UVA, Oreg St, and Zaga. Let the time get past me on Zona-Utah over. Being up all night may have had something to do with it. Lol I was ready to fire on Zaga, stared at it for about 5 minutes and started thinking don't starting laying big #'s. Last 4 games they have laid 28.5, 28, 40, 27 and covered them all easily. I've cussed myself out after each one. 

You also get to thinking you are playing to many games. But I understand TRAIN's philosophy of high volume plays. It spreads the variance out. You can go 16-12 on 28 plays, 57%, and make 2.8*. Some body else can go 6-4, 60%, and make 1.6*. Like you said it's all about the units.

I've noticed a pattern I have fallen into, it was the same in fb, my early plays are the best. Those are the ones I spend a lot of time on. 

Neither of us got hurt today and ended in the black so it was a good day. 

I'm going to look at tomorrow's slate now.

Ttyl

1* SH-DePaul over 146.5

Looking now.... UVA was up by 25 pts around half and just scored 12 pts in the second half???? Not concerning but it goes to show they are one of the few teams who don't have to gunsling  to win a game....Texas Tech is like that and Nevada can do that  

1* Marquette Golden Eagles -8 to Xavier Mousekateers

1* Marq-X over 147

All 4 plays so far are all probably going to be big public plays. Marquette # is going to rise, probably SH # will to, probably both totals as well. The action will come in late today after Late Nite Saturday. Then some of those have to go to church. Lol

5 UNITS ......Under Philip Rivers Passing Yds  253.5 !! I will pad my UNIT totals if I get these....keep separate

- Ravens have not allowed anyone to pass for this much at home....all year!!

L . Jackson Under 15.5 completions - 2 Units....only did it once unless missed something....this is going to be a dogfight!

Over4.5 Sack  (1x).....there were 7 in California a few weeks back and this is the  playoffs

Over 3 Receptions - Mike Williams  (1x).....I expect Rivers to be throwing more off of his back foot  or up high when going for end zone or long pass....Mike Williams can get those and is reliable/will likely be Rivers target for first down completions or Gates but I won't play him because he needs to be wide open to receive now.....Ravens will blanket 2 players in my opinion....Gordon and Allen to force Rivers to throw deep where he is less accurate....

Thanks Funk....I probably won't add much given those 2 would be on my radar.....think highly of both teams.....starting to look now while Football cappiing is done