Last's Non-Conf Picks

Morgan St. +23.5 x 1U

-Minny is offensively challenged and prefer a tighter game....while they might break out on Morgan St and score a higher total, this Morgan St team stayed with the #1 team and only lost by 27!  ....I just might make this one a DOUBLE UP type of matchup in my mind but its only one hour apart from the Hofstra game so just 1U for now

Belmont - Drake Over 141.5 x HALF U

-scratching my head on this one....Belmont with a prodigious offense and terrible defense....Drake with a great defense and has a lot of firepower if needed on offense.....they know each other so I predict Belmont will push the pace or shoot many 3 pters and this will force Drake into a faster game and more scoring themselves 

Really liking today's lines....but sometimes when I play too many, my results can go SPLAT ....or shine like in the King of Covers where some large play days were hitting 65%+

RESULTS Today > brutal day in the King of Covers contest....I was running too well and made too many selections

Double Up Play #1 for today - Hofstra -1.5 x 1U    Next one is for 2U

IPFW -8.5 x HALF U  

Morgan St. +23.5 x 1U  

Belmont - Drake Over 141.5 x HALF U 

Dead even on the day..... will cap later for tomorrow

Monday Double UP Play x 2U = Auburn -35.5

-don't over think the number 1 or 2 team playing a team ranked around 300th.....curbstomp coming up

-this is not the time of the year to ease off and feel tired or bored or just use your bench...end of January, that will start with some teams

South Florida -1.5 DOUBLE UP finisher x 4U

-have not lost a triple D-UP this year and I am due  (50 - 30 now in King of Covers and its the only play I have made today)

-USF tends to smoke ECU in this matchup and won by 20+ last year

-only concern about ECU is their offensive rebounding but USF is strong at home ....one of the best over the years no matter how strong their team is and in the rankings, both teams are close

-USF can score and I expect them to win today....will it be by -2?

North Texas -6 x 1U....this is a double high ATS success play..... if I were down units, I would consider pressing but no need since my ability to find ones like this should continue to hit almost 7 out of 10 times

South Indiana -1 x HALF U

Nevada -3.5 x HALF U

Made a mistake....that last play should say Utah St +3.5

Posted: 

Lets try this again....

South Florida -1.5 DOUBLE UP finisher x 4U   

-have not lost a triple D-UP this year and I am due <<  

North Texas -6 x 1U....this is a double high ATS success play  

South Indiana -1 x HALF U  

 Utah St +3.5 x HALF U  

2- 2  +1 U today

Plays on New Years Day:

S. Illinois Parlay Half U > pays over $75

ML + Under 137.5 combo

Chattanooga ML + S.Illinois Half U parlay > pays close to $60

-Mocs have not lost to Mercer in a long time

Drake -6.5 x 1U DOUBLE UP PLAY started .....

-UIC tends to play them tough....but we are talking about a Top 10 team this year with a top 3 defense playing a good, but NOT GREAT UIC team

TEASER HALF U: - 7 PTS > RICE +7.5 (100 ranks higher than Tulsa!) with IUPUI +11.5 (was considering the fade anyway with my correlation chart saying play a fade on Youngstown) with MIDDIES:

1. N.Iowa -1

2. Belmont +11

3. Valpo +10

4. Missouri St E

Ugly day...got smoked.....sorry if you tailed. Every trend that was positive failed today.

 bad post....

@Last2thirst

 I tailed and yes i got smoked. Regardless thank you for posting, bad days happen.

Ah shit, sorry man. I am sticking to trends/matchup stats mostly on my sides and exotic bets 

I am breaking down tomorrow as we speak....looking for something for my 2 UNIT Double up after the fail today

Tomorrow  - lots of games and low lines because of conference play.... I strongly suggest you keep track of who wins the first game and then check when they play again and take the opposite winner no matter who is at home or not UNLESS....you see the one side dominating most times out of the past 10 games they played (8/10 or better win rate )

Since you guys are seeing first matchups, I think my correlation chart of plotting every rank results and also how the spread does is going to help out. Since I had such a bad day ....I am going to offer the DOUBLE uptick arrowed plays that are good rank combo correlations AND best spreads with them = double positive correlation

You look at the matchups and decide which one you like. I will list mine but here are the double positve matchups for favorites;

Maryland -6.5 > huge respect for this team but its their first west coast trip but facing a team ranked in the 90's

SIUEdward -7.5

Liberty -8

UNC Wilmington -6

Monmouth -6.5

Tennessee Tech -3.5

N. Dakota -4

VERY COLD WEATHER creeping into the midwest strongly tomorrow so you may want to look at the home teams since the visitors might have a rough flight and not like the cold shock they will feel.....home team is used to it from waking up and coming to arena for shoot around or warmup 2x already

My very best FADE plays or DOUBLE NEGATIVES that I found: - again, check out the matchup and YOU select 

CSN Northridge -5 @ Cal Fullerton

UC Riverside -4.5 @ Long Beach

High Point -8.5 at home vs Radford

I will look at all of these tomorrow and make my OWN final determinations .....and report

@Last2thirst

 Thank you for the advise!

UNC Wilmington -5 x 2U DOUBLE PLAY #2 ...made this before noon but been too busy to post....GL if following

-UNCWilm is a good offensive team and can play defense too....Towson only strong at defense

-UNCW played a higher rank team in App St than Townson in a defensive battle and still won by 15!

- on my Double POSITIVE correlation list and seems to be the best fit .....like a couple others too

might have another soon....or later 

UNCWilm or Monmouth....I picked the wrong spread....ah well. Its why I have slowed down. I sense a tide turning for a little while and it happens to bettors. 

Slow down is how you handle it and wait till you are in the clear with 2-3 winning days before you handle more volume