I am pissed off and on a mission today..... been disrupted in my normal routine the past 4 days looking after 2 dogs who are very needy and distracting. Plus, I am not living at home when I look after them while friends are down south
I have full focus since this morning and my wife with them so I think I sense a good day.....KENTUCKY-FLORIDA start bodes well and my decision making so far. Posted earlier:
Saturday Fun.... have to do a big 3rd DOUBLE UP but will take my time doing it.....
Kentucky -3 x 1 U
Over Kentucky 165.5 x HALF U
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
I am pissed off and on a mission today..... been disrupted in my normal routine the past 4 days looking after 2 dogs who are very needy and distracting. Plus, I am not living at home when I look after them while friends are down south
I have full focus since this morning and my wife with them so I think I sense a good day.....KENTUCKY-FLORIDA start bodes well and my decision making so far. Posted earlier:
Saturday Fun.... have to do a big 3rd DOUBLE UP but will take my time doing it.....
Kind of like this senior team UTRGV....they can shoot and play fast pace which travels well on the road....no way New Orleans can keep with them and are not good defenders
-its a nice team who are rising slowly up the rankings....they were around 330th to start the year and have climbed over 100 ranks but New Orleans is going the other way
UTRGV -8 x HALF U
I must say...VEGAS has been super tight on their lines and I think whomever set them, benefitted from some time off to catch up on trends between ranked teams. All day long I am seeing TRAP LINES after 2pm.....they gave me some good ones before but until I saw this play, most of my correlations have been good between ranks but the spread is bad for the favorite
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
1
Kind of like this senior team UTRGV....they can shoot and play fast pace which travels well on the road....no way New Orleans can keep with them and are not good defenders
-its a nice team who are rising slowly up the rankings....they were around 330th to start the year and have climbed over 100 ranks but New Orleans is going the other way
UTRGV -8 x HALF U
I must say...VEGAS has been super tight on their lines and I think whomever set them, benefitted from some time off to catch up on trends between ranked teams. All day long I am seeing TRAP LINES after 2pm.....they gave me some good ones before but until I saw this play, most of my correlations have been good between ranks but the spread is bad for the favorite
amazing, not sure how I missed all this, keep it up
Just use my stats charts inputting every result and what rank the team is....plus updated these ranks and then correlating zones of ranks vs other zones of ranks.....plus, I correlate with spread results in what situation on the year.....I COULD NOT CARE LESS of past performances except, when two teams in the same conference are playing
When I hunch even after looking at stats, my success rate is closer to 50%....which I do not longer want to be avg in NCAAB...I lost my way the last few years because I wouldn't put in the work daily that is required to make $$
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by dogball:
amazing, not sure how I missed all this, keep it up
Just use my stats charts inputting every result and what rank the team is....plus updated these ranks and then correlating zones of ranks vs other zones of ranks.....plus, I correlate with spread results in what situation on the year.....I COULD NOT CARE LESS of past performances except, when two teams in the same conference are playing
When I hunch even after looking at stats, my success rate is closer to 50%....which I do not longer want to be avg in NCAAB...I lost my way the last few years because I wouldn't put in the work daily that is required to make $$
I don't think Loyola Marymount matches up well vs Gonzaga....otherwise, I like them against most teams
Zaga line is borderline a double positive......
But, when a top 20 team plays a team ranked from 91 - 120th where LM is, they are 15-3 as a favorite and if the line goes to -16 or higher, they are even better
For shits and giggles, playing Gonzaga -15.5 x HALF U only on a mismatch in styles and the great correlation stat....generally, I do terrible taking Zaga as a favorite ...proceed with caution
Final record today on King Of Covers competition:
Date W-L-T % Units Record 01/04/2025 12-3-0 80.00% +4350 Detail
Might look for 1-2 more....did not take Zaga
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
I don't think Loyola Marymount matches up well vs Gonzaga....otherwise, I like them against most teams
Zaga line is borderline a double positive......
But, when a top 20 team plays a team ranked from 91 - 120th where LM is, they are 15-3 as a favorite and if the line goes to -16 or higher, they are even better
For shits and giggles, playing Gonzaga -15.5 x HALF U only on a mismatch in styles and the great correlation stat....generally, I do terrible taking Zaga as a favorite ...proceed with caution
Final record today on King Of Covers competition:
Date W-L-T % Units Record 01/04/2025 12-3-0 80.00% +4350 Detail
I just took Portland +18 in the contest because St. Mary's has failed to cover 3 lines at home of -20.5 and now are on the road facing a team that covers big spreads it seems....
No official play for in here and now wish I would have taken this one over Gonzaga....I will just live with Gonzaga
Just so you know...I can get hot and cold in the contest and in my picks in this thread. See what I mean:
I just took Portland +18 in the contest because St. Mary's has failed to cover 3 lines at home of -20.5 and now are on the road facing a team that covers big spreads it seems....
No official play for in here and now wish I would have taken this one over Gonzaga....I will just live with Gonzaga
Just so you know...I can get hot and cold in the contest and in my picks in this thread. See what I mean:
Still have tomorrow to count for my weekly numbers....been a strange week! Capping tomorrow's games right now with my correlation charts but TBH, I need to update these correlation charts first but just might wait until tomorrow night. I hope all the funky results this week don't skew my update chart to this past Wed only....too much
Gonzaga -15.5 x HALF U
Today = 6 - 1 ATS/Totals (+7 Units)
Week = 10 - 8 (+3.5 Units)
Season = 57- 37 (+24 Units = + > $2800)
While the Conference play is showing sharper lines and lower lines.....one is going to have to CUT down their plays and SIFT much more to find nuggets. Hunching is what Vegas wants you to do and I can see that in their nasty lines they set all day but I was able to SIFT and cut through to find DOUBLE CORRELATIONS which worked for me but did not the past few days as well
Most of my plays above, are correlations. Maybe only 5-6 hunch plays out of 94 laid so far
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Still have tomorrow to count for my weekly numbers....been a strange week! Capping tomorrow's games right now with my correlation charts but TBH, I need to update these correlation charts first but just might wait until tomorrow night. I hope all the funky results this week don't skew my update chart to this past Wed only....too much
Gonzaga -15.5 x HALF U
Today = 6 - 1 ATS/Totals (+7 Units)
Week = 10 - 8 (+3.5 Units)
Season = 57- 37 (+24 Units = + > $2800)
While the Conference play is showing sharper lines and lower lines.....one is going to have to CUT down their plays and SIFT much more to find nuggets. Hunching is what Vegas wants you to do and I can see that in their nasty lines they set all day but I was able to SIFT and cut through to find DOUBLE CORRELATIONS which worked for me but did not the past few days as well
Most of my plays above, are correlations. Maybe only 5-6 hunch plays out of 94 laid so far
- like the Wagner Under ...especially since they shutdown 3 good east coast teams to UNDER 130 totals and getting 135
- Fairleigh Dick is not a juggernaut offensively but they can hang in a loose ballgame....this one will be dictated by Wagner for sure with their style and being a home team
Play #1 - Wagner UNDER 135 x HALF U
Play #2 - Holy Cross +5 x HALF U > superior offense, knows how to win regularly on the road and controls their series together over the last 10 games (2-3 wins for American only)
Play #1 DOUBLE UP playNavy- Lafayette UNDER 139
-Lafayette and Navy are hard working teams who play tough on every ball....only one of the last 6 games between them have hit OVER 125 in the last 3 years and that game hit 140!
Play #3 - Marist -2 x HALF U
-very nice team statistically and in the win column ..... would bet more but it appears that Quinn tends to control this matchup most years
Very strong lean to N.Texas +9 but this is a pure hunch bet because the correlation says, take Memphis....but I see that Memphis cannot cover a line -11 and this N.Texas team will be tough on them from a defensive and counter punching point of view....getting this many points is usual a sound bet when you have the better defensive team with decent offensive stats
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Sunday:
- like the Wagner Under ...especially since they shutdown 3 good east coast teams to UNDER 130 totals and getting 135
- Fairleigh Dick is not a juggernaut offensively but they can hang in a loose ballgame....this one will be dictated by Wagner for sure with their style and being a home team
Play #1 - Wagner UNDER 135 x HALF U
Play #2 - Holy Cross +5 x HALF U > superior offense, knows how to win regularly on the road and controls their series together over the last 10 games (2-3 wins for American only)
Play #1 DOUBLE UP playNavy- Lafayette UNDER 139
-Lafayette and Navy are hard working teams who play tough on every ball....only one of the last 6 games between them have hit OVER 125 in the last 3 years and that game hit 140!
Play #3 - Marist -2 x HALF U
-very nice team statistically and in the win column ..... would bet more but it appears that Quinn tends to control this matchup most years
Very strong lean to N.Texas +9 but this is a pure hunch bet because the correlation says, take Memphis....but I see that Memphis cannot cover a line -11 and this N.Texas team will be tough on them from a defensive and counter punching point of view....getting this many points is usual a sound bet when you have the better defensive team with decent offensive stats
Forgot to mention that my Exotic Betting SUCKED this week....down $ - 375 so my $1000 account for that is at $732 and I want to fix that is opps appear and watching lines for TEASERS 5 PTS this week
Some good KEYS?
- ARMY-LAFFY up to 144 (tease UNDER) should be gold...... with Ducks or UCF TEASED ....split them and would attack these lines by adding pts. (I am not doing this because I am priced in enough on SIDES/TOTALS)
1. Memphis and OVER ...N.Texas defense won't dictate this game while on the road
2. Murray St. .... I like Drake but Murray St is not a doormat
3. Marist +3.5 should be gold with their offense and hometown refs
4. I would suggest Providence if I knew Bryce Hopkins was playing....missed the last 3 and I hope of the best players going into the draft is not reinjured
5. American -1 << just noticed that they can overpower a team at home....
6. Fairleigh +9 - with their offense, they should stay within single digits
If you are going to do a TEASER....think fun/recreational bets of $10-20 ....don't go overboard
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Forgot to mention that my Exotic Betting SUCKED this week....down $ - 375 so my $1000 account for that is at $732 and I want to fix that is opps appear and watching lines for TEASERS 5 PTS this week
Some good KEYS?
- ARMY-LAFFY up to 144 (tease UNDER) should be gold...... with Ducks or UCF TEASED ....split them and would attack these lines by adding pts. (I am not doing this because I am priced in enough on SIDES/TOTALS)
1. Memphis and OVER ...N.Texas defense won't dictate this game while on the road
2. Murray St. .... I like Drake but Murray St is not a doormat
3. Marist +3.5 should be gold with their offense and hometown refs
4. I would suggest Providence if I knew Bryce Hopkins was playing....missed the last 3 and I hope of the best players going into the draft is not reinjured
5. American -1 << just noticed that they can overpower a team at home....
6. Fairleigh +9 - with their offense, they should stay within single digits
If you are going to do a TEASER....think fun/recreational bets of $10-20 ....don't go overboard
Won't play anymore or force anymore plays..... and will work on a recap and update on my results all tomorrow as I am now just on part time till April which works out perfectly for the rest of the hoops season.
Today = 2 - 2 ATS/Totals (-0.5 Units)
Week = 12 - 10 (+3 Units) << not what I want to achieve regularly but know that it gets a little rough most years in January and you must be super selective.....I am even considering starting a new Chart and then updating my old chart which has all of the results including every game on the season.....its double work but it best reflects the NON-CONF schedule results with what to expect in the CONFERENCE PLAY leading up to the tourney. Come the tourney, I will most certainly rely on the current data hosting chart from Nov 1 - Jan 1 as a guide moreso....than the Conference Play
Season = 59- 39 (+23.5 Units = + > $2750 )
By the way....I did play those teasers for $20 each using OREGON with UNDER Navy but could not post in here in time since I fell asleep before the 1pm start and literally was scrambling to get them in .....want to get my exotic betting account back up because I use it for props and other quirky things around Super Bowl time and into the spring
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Won't play anymore or force anymore plays..... and will work on a recap and update on my results all tomorrow as I am now just on part time till April which works out perfectly for the rest of the hoops season.
Today = 2 - 2 ATS/Totals (-0.5 Units)
Week = 12 - 10 (+3 Units) << not what I want to achieve regularly but know that it gets a little rough most years in January and you must be super selective.....I am even considering starting a new Chart and then updating my old chart which has all of the results including every game on the season.....its double work but it best reflects the NON-CONF schedule results with what to expect in the CONFERENCE PLAY leading up to the tourney. Come the tourney, I will most certainly rely on the current data hosting chart from Nov 1 - Jan 1 as a guide moreso....than the Conference Play
Season = 59- 39 (+23.5 Units = + > $2750 )
By the way....I did play those teasers for $20 each using OREGON with UNDER Navy but could not post in here in time since I fell asleep before the 1pm start and literally was scrambling to get them in .....want to get my exotic betting account back up because I use it for props and other quirky things around Super Bowl time and into the spring
If I can get Memphis here to win by 5 and it should go OVER 131....I go 6-0 and gain $132 profit back into Exotic balance bringing me back up to $864 (down only $136 on the season)
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
If I can get Memphis here to win by 5 and it should go OVER 131....I go 6-0 and gain $132 profit back into Exotic balance bringing me back up to $864 (down only $136 on the season)
Pushed my Teasers last night with Oregon so payout was only +0.71 on each play but still went 6-0
Double negative vs favorite on USF @ Wichita game....might be worth a TEASE up or fade if you want
My play of the Day: - Rutgers +2 and ML ..... HALF U each
-they rarely lose at home against any team no matter their ranking...in fact, sometimes they beat them by 20+
Like the OVER on UTRGV ...they play a fast pace and are excellent offensive rebounders.... their opponent can play and score so I think this line may be too low...this game should go over 150 pts together
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Pushed my Teasers last night with Oregon so payout was only +0.71 on each play but still went 6-0
Double negative vs favorite on USF @ Wichita game....might be worth a TEASE up or fade if you want
My play of the Day: - Rutgers +2 and ML ..... HALF U each
-they rarely lose at home against any team no matter their ranking...in fact, sometimes they beat them by 20+
Like the OVER on UTRGV ...they play a fast pace and are excellent offensive rebounders.... their opponent can play and score so I think this line may be too low...this game should go over 150 pts together
Ahhh...shitballs...PV came back on Southern when I was up by over 10 pts with 5 minutes or so to play
Tonight 1 - 2 - 1 Push (Southern) - 0.5 Units on the night
Back at her in deep tomorrow. I have been playing the stock market during the day and inputting past data when there are lulls in daytrading...late Dec - April 30 is my daytrading time and I tend to make most of my extra money during this time....sometimes to fund an account that is a little wonky. Each one of my 3 sports accounts tend to have $5-6K except for baseball with $3K in them and if I win extra cash funds the next sport and move my original stack to the 3rd season .... horse account is separate. Last 7-8 years, I only had to refund one season account and pulled money out of my horse account almost every year except for one in that time. Come August, if I have $3K more cash by August after rotating money forward and NCAAF season is funded, I tend to take the misses on a nice vacation/trip or beach front rental for 7-10 days...sometimes longer. She and I need that and when we do this, I only read other books and NO SPORTS except horses because her and I watch and listen to races online and have a laugh.... do drinking games with which one of our horses does better ....if you win the partner takes off a piece of clothing so there is some incentive (we have discussed that when she turns 60 in eight years, that we might start buying pieces of full horse investments in yearlings or 2 yr olds)
Will focus tomorrow on checking correlations. I am inputting my data from Jan 1 to yesterday into a fresh correlation chart since Conference Play is now in full swing as of Jan 1 2025
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Ahhh...shitballs...PV came back on Southern when I was up by over 10 pts with 5 minutes or so to play
Tonight 1 - 2 - 1 Push (Southern) - 0.5 Units on the night
Back at her in deep tomorrow. I have been playing the stock market during the day and inputting past data when there are lulls in daytrading...late Dec - April 30 is my daytrading time and I tend to make most of my extra money during this time....sometimes to fund an account that is a little wonky. Each one of my 3 sports accounts tend to have $5-6K except for baseball with $3K in them and if I win extra cash funds the next sport and move my original stack to the 3rd season .... horse account is separate. Last 7-8 years, I only had to refund one season account and pulled money out of my horse account almost every year except for one in that time. Come August, if I have $3K more cash by August after rotating money forward and NCAAF season is funded, I tend to take the misses on a nice vacation/trip or beach front rental for 7-10 days...sometimes longer. She and I need that and when we do this, I only read other books and NO SPORTS except horses because her and I watch and listen to races online and have a laugh.... do drinking games with which one of our horses does better ....if you win the partner takes off a piece of clothing so there is some incentive (we have discussed that when she turns 60 in eight years, that we might start buying pieces of full horse investments in yearlings or 2 yr olds)
Will focus tomorrow on checking correlations. I am inputting my data from Jan 1 to yesterday into a fresh correlation chart since Conference Play is now in full swing as of Jan 1 2025
Sorry...no plays (still inputting last 6 days of data into new correlation chart only for Conference games from Jan 1, 2025)....except in local lotto Proline.. I took St. Johns key with Oklahoma St at home ml and then wheeled fading Leafs, did Michigan + pts and split with OVER...took Jets Under and UAB -8.5
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Sorry...no plays (still inputting last 6 days of data into new correlation chart only for Conference games from Jan 1, 2025)....except in local lotto Proline.. I took St. Johns key with Oklahoma St at home ml and then wheeled fading Leafs, did Michigan + pts and split with OVER...took Jets Under and UAB -8.5
Have found 2 games using the new data .....and just need to compare and correlate to other data and might post something in the next hour....excited to start applying the new data for Conference Play
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Inputted all the data back to Jan 1
Have found 2 games using the new data .....and just need to compare and correlate to other data and might post something in the next hour....excited to start applying the new data for Conference Play
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...got this despite forgetting Calipari left the program which means I would have taken it off 
so there is some incentive (we have discussed that when she turns 60 in eight years, that we might start buying pieces of full horse investments in yearlings or 2 yr olds)
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